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| Which countries still need to approve a Greek bailout – and how will they vote? | Which countries still need to approve a Greek bailout – and how will they vote? |
| (about 7 hours later) | |
| The Greek parliament voted late on Wednesday evening to undertake the package of reforms needed to begin negotiations for an €86bn bailout programme. Despite 32 of its MPs voting against the plans, the Syriza-led government won out by 229 votes to 64. | The Greek parliament voted late on Wednesday evening to undertake the package of reforms needed to begin negotiations for an €86bn bailout programme. Despite 32 of its MPs voting against the plans, the Syriza-led government won out by 229 votes to 64. |
| Greece is of course not the only parliament in the eurozone that will need to agree to a third bailout deal. Even in those countries that will not require a formal vote, tensions may emerge further down the road within governments that have small majorities. | Greece is of course not the only parliament in the eurozone that will need to agree to a third bailout deal. Even in those countries that will not require a formal vote, tensions may emerge further down the road within governments that have small majorities. |
| Even once all the eurozone’s governments have mustered the support they need, it is still likely that there will be hurdles to overcome before formal negotiations begin. In fact the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has made clear that it will not send any new programme to its board that doesn’t include debt restructuring – a position not shared with all eurozone governments – nor review the current one, which would be required to release pending funds. | Even once all the eurozone’s governments have mustered the support they need, it is still likely that there will be hurdles to overcome before formal negotiations begin. In fact the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has made clear that it will not send any new programme to its board that doesn’t include debt restructuring – a position not shared with all eurozone governments – nor review the current one, which would be required to release pending funds. |
| If both the IMF and the European Union stick to their respective positions a renewed impasse is likely. | If both the IMF and the European Union stick to their respective positions a renewed impasse is likely. |
| Countries that will vote | Countries that will vote |
| Germany | Germany |
| The Bundestag will vote twice on the bailout. The government needs authorisation first to flesh out the proposals and then to approve them when the full details are presented. | The Bundestag will vote twice on the bailout. The government needs authorisation first to flesh out the proposals and then to approve them when the full details are presented. |
| Despite the idea of revoking Greece’s membership of the euro being popular in Germany, Angela Merkel and her finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, should have little difficulty getting their proposals through. | Despite the idea of revoking Greece’s membership of the euro being popular in Germany, Angela Merkel and her finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, should have little difficulty getting their proposals through. |
| That is because her grand coalition is made up of the two biggest parties – the CDU/CSU grouping and the centre-left SPD. Cumulatively they take up 504 of the 631 seats. | That is because her grand coalition is made up of the two biggest parties – the CDU/CSU grouping and the centre-left SPD. Cumulatively they take up 504 of the 631 seats. |
| That is not to say that some ripples may not be felt despite Merkel’s majority almost certainly being big enough to approve the deal. At the last bailout extension in February, 29 of the 32 no votes were from CDU/CSU MPs and 109 signed a letter saying they had voted yes but with reservations. | That is not to say that some ripples may not be felt despite Merkel’s majority almost certainly being big enough to approve the deal. At the last bailout extension in February, 29 of the 32 no votes were from CDU/CSU MPs and 109 signed a letter saying they had voted yes but with reservations. |
| Austria | Austria |
| Werner Faymann’s government also has a grand coalition of the two main parties but he has a slightly slimmer majority than his neighbouring leader Merkel. Getting a deal approved in the vote on Friday should not be too problematic, though, as the Green party, which is not in government, also backs the bailout. | Werner Faymann’s government also has a grand coalition of the two main parties but he has a slightly slimmer majority than his neighbouring leader Merkel. Getting a deal approved in the vote on Friday should not be too problematic, though, as the Green party, which is not in government, also backs the bailout. |
| Estonia | Estonia |
| The Estonian president, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, tweeted this article by the Guardian a couple of weeks ago to point out that “Greece’s creditors [are] NOT just banks”. | The Estonian president, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, tweeted this article by the Guardian a couple of weeks ago to point out that “Greece’s creditors [are] NOT just banks”. |
| Greece's Creditors NOT just banks. Exposure of € zone countries poorer than Greece stand to lose up to 4.2% GDP http://t.co/i4QZ3w1xBs | Greece's Creditors NOT just banks. Exposure of € zone countries poorer than Greece stand to lose up to 4.2% GDP http://t.co/i4QZ3w1xBs |
| Estonia is one of those most heavily exposed to Greek’s debt burden, with 4% of its GDP at risk. However, given that the coalition government holds 59 out of 101 seats in parliament, it should not be too much trouble for it to pass a motion on the deal. | Estonia is one of those most heavily exposed to Greek’s debt burden, with 4% of its GDP at risk. However, given that the coalition government holds 59 out of 101 seats in parliament, it should not be too much trouble for it to pass a motion on the deal. |
| Latvia | Latvia |
| This is Latvia’s first Greek bailout deal as a member of the eurozone and it might be a tough push for the prime minister, Laimdota Straujuma, who said last week: “It will be very difficult for me to convince parliament.” | This is Latvia’s first Greek bailout deal as a member of the eurozone and it might be a tough push for the prime minister, Laimdota Straujuma, who said last week: “It will be very difficult for me to convince parliament.” |
| The ruling coalition in Latvia’s parliament, the Saeima, holds 61 out of the 100 seats but the country is among the most hawkish eurozone members in its approach to Greece. A vote is not necessary but Straujuma has said the Saeima should get a chance to approve the decision. | The ruling coalition in Latvia’s parliament, the Saeima, holds 61 out of the 100 seats but the country is among the most hawkish eurozone members in its approach to Greece. A vote is not necessary but Straujuma has said the Saeima should get a chance to approve the decision. |
| Spain | Spain |
| Spanish law does not necessitate a vote. However, the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, is opting for symbolism and intends to call parliament into action. Given his own party has a considerable majority it is likely to be a quick rubberstamp from one of the countries keenest to keep Greece in the eurozone. | Spanish law does not necessitate a vote. However, the prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, is opting for symbolism and intends to call parliament into action. Given his own party has a considerable majority it is likely to be a quick rubberstamp from one of the countries keenest to keep Greece in the eurozone. |
| Countries that have already voted | Countries that have already voted |
| Finland | Finland |
| During the meeting of eurozone finance ministers last week there were rumblings that a Greece deal could lead to the collapse of the Finnish government because of opposition from the Eurosceptic Finns party. | During the meeting of eurozone finance ministers last week there were rumblings that a Greece deal could lead to the collapse of the Finnish government because of opposition from the Eurosceptic Finns party. |
| The vote was held by a 25-person grand committee, designed to reflect the party composition of the 200-MP parliament. It gave the nod for ministers to negotiate a bailout but it is fair to say the Finns party was not glowing about the choice. Its leader, Timo Soini, likened it to choosing between “plague and cholera”. | The vote was held by a 25-person grand committee, designed to reflect the party composition of the 200-MP parliament. It gave the nod for ministers to negotiate a bailout but it is fair to say the Finns party was not glowing about the choice. Its leader, Timo Soini, likened it to choosing between “plague and cholera”. |
| Soini: This was not a good day, there were no good option, we had to choose between plague and cholera. #Greece | Soini: This was not a good day, there were no good option, we had to choose between plague and cholera. #Greece |
| France | France |
| The French government worked hard to make sure a deal was cut to keep Greece in. French officials assisted Greece in drafting the proposals that were sent to eurozone finance ministers last week. | The French government worked hard to make sure a deal was cut to keep Greece in. French officials assisted Greece in drafting the proposals that were sent to eurozone finance ministers last week. |
| The national assembly voted earlier in the week and overwhelmingly backed a bailout deal with 412 votes for and 69 against. | The national assembly voted earlier in the week and overwhelmingly backed a bailout deal with 412 votes for and 69 against. |
| Countries that do not have to vote | Countries that do not have to vote |
| Slovakia | Slovakia |
| Relative to its GDP Slovakia is the second most exposed country to Greece’s debts in the monetary union, after Malta. | Relative to its GDP Slovakia is the second most exposed country to Greece’s debts in the monetary union, after Malta. |
| Barclays: Official exposure to Greece in EMU by country and type pic.twitter.com/5QKkrsWr77 | Barclays: Official exposure to Greece in EMU by country and type pic.twitter.com/5QKkrsWr77 |
| Slovakia may be concerned that any releases of new financing will put its own economy at further risk. The finance minister, Peter Kažimír, raised hackles with his tweet earlier in the week suggesting the harsh austerity measures agreed in the initial bailout proposals were a direct consequence of Syriza’s rise to power. | Slovakia may be concerned that any releases of new financing will put its own economy at further risk. The finance minister, Peter Kažimír, raised hackles with his tweet earlier in the week suggesting the harsh austerity measures agreed in the initial bailout proposals were a direct consequence of Syriza’s rise to power. |
| The Greek compromise, reached on Monday, is considered to be tough and harsh. If it's so, it is the unfortunate outcome of ´Syriza Spring' | The Greek compromise, reached on Monday, is considered to be tough and harsh. If it's so, it is the unfortunate outcome of ´Syriza Spring' |
| The government has asked the parliament’s committee for European affairs to give the bailout the green light. | The government has asked the parliament’s committee for European affairs to give the bailout the green light. |
| Netherlands | Netherlands |
| A vote to back a deal in the parliament is not required, which is quite useful for those keen to see the bailout through. Mark Rutte’s government only has a majority of one and there is a large amount of Euroscepticism both within parliament and among the wider Dutch population. | A vote to back a deal in the parliament is not required, which is quite useful for those keen to see the bailout through. Mark Rutte’s government only has a majority of one and there is a large amount of Euroscepticism both within parliament and among the wider Dutch population. |
| The prime minister had previously pledged that no more financing would head to Greece. That promise has been broken. | The prime minister had previously pledged that no more financing would head to Greece. That promise has been broken. |
| This could cause instability and further uncertainty, and early elections are not too unlikely a prospect. | This could cause instability and further uncertainty, and early elections are not too unlikely a prospect. |
| Another dynamic here is that the Dutch finance minister and recently re-elected head of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, is of the Labour party, which is in coalition with Rutte’s VVD. The two have to work hard to ensure cracks don’t open up between the two parties. | Another dynamic here is that the Dutch finance minister and recently re-elected head of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, is of the Labour party, which is in coalition with Rutte’s VVD. The two have to work hard to ensure cracks don’t open up between the two parties. |
| Lithuania | Lithuania |
| Lithuania is one of the eurozone’s poorer nations, with lower pensions and salaries than Greece. In spite of this, they are being asked to bail out the Hellenic country. | Lithuania is one of the eurozone’s poorer nations, with lower pensions and salaries than Greece. In spite of this, they are being asked to bail out the Hellenic country. |
| However, concern exists among some of the country’s politicians that kicking Greece out of the eurozone would see it fall under Russia’s influence. Regardless, it looks like they will not get a chance to vote on the latest financing package. | However, concern exists among some of the country’s politicians that kicking Greece out of the eurozone would see it fall under Russia’s influence. Regardless, it looks like they will not get a chance to vote on the latest financing package. |
| Portugal | Portugal |
| With elections coming up later in the year, the centre-right government parties in Portugal are trailing in the polls. In the ascendancy is the anti-austerity PS party, which is keen to emulate Syriza’s success at the ballot box. | With elections coming up later in the year, the centre-right government parties in Portugal are trailing in the polls. In the ascendancy is the anti-austerity PS party, which is keen to emulate Syriza’s success at the ballot box. |
| Others that not will not be holding a vote: | Others that not will not be holding a vote: |
| Luxembourg | Luxembourg |
| Belgium | Belgium |
| Cyprus | Cyprus |
| Italy | Italy |
| Malta | Malta |
| Slovenia | |
| This piece was amended on 17 July 2015. It previously omitted Slovenia from the list of eurozone countries. |
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