Is this Iran’s time in the Middle East?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-33566874

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"A wild beast unleashed". This damning verdict from Saudi columnist Abdul Rahman Rashed, writing in the influential Ahsarq Al Awsat newspaper, largely sums up the tone of reaction to Iran's nuclear deal across the Arab media.

And judging from the conversations I've had with ordinary Egyptians here in Cairo - and the conversations on Arabic social media - these fears are very much shared by ordinary people.

For many Sunni Arab governments and their people, the worry is that with international sanctions lifted Shia Iran will be able to expand operations in its client states across the Middle East.

That means more military support for Bashar Assad in Syria, for Shia militias in Iraq, for the Houthi rebels in Yemen and for Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Much has been made in the Arab press in recent days of a comment by the former UN Syria envoy Lakhdar Brahimi after a trip to Tehran in 2013.

"We are not an important country in the region," he was told by his Iranian hosts. "We are THE important country in the region."

Viewed through this perspective the nuclear deal, for many in the Arab world, is seen as nothing less than a bid to reshape the Middle East and re-establish the Persian Empire.

Long-term strategy

A decade of protracted negotiations, they say, reflects a long-term Iranian strategy planned with the exemplary patience that comes from mastering the art of weaving Persian rugs.

So how much of this is actually based on reality?

One key issue to bear in mind here is time.

It's clear from a detailed perusal of the terms, timetables and commitments outlined in the Vienna agreement that it's going to take a very long time for Iran to fulfil all the conditions necessary for all sanctions to be lifted.

In some instances this could take as long as 25 years.

So predictions that Iran will imminently have a huge windfall of cash to start spending on military hardware, look seriously off the mark.

And even after bank accounts are unfrozen and money starts to flow again, the Vienna deal stipulates Iran will continue to be subject to an arms embargo for five to eight years.

It's also important to underline that the sanctions due to be lifted post-Vienna are just the ones related to Iran's nuclear activities.

There are still many other US and international restrictions in place, as there have been for the past three decades since the Islamic Revolution.

Iran and the West still have a very long way to go to settle all their disputes and bring a complete end to Iran's diplomatic isolation.

Predictions from some Arab commentators of a new US-Iranian alliance in the Middle East are also hugely wide of the mark.

President Obama has made it clear he does not expect a resumption of diplomatic ties with Iran any time soon.

A possible shift of power to the Republicans in next year's US elections could potentially call the future of the Vienna deal into question.

And with the level of opposition also being raised by key allies Israel and Saudi Arabia, there's no guarantee, even with another Democrat in the White House, that all phases of the nuclear deal will be implemented without future hitches.

Hardline opposition

In Iran itself there's also strong opposition to the deal from hardliners.

So far, Ayatollah Khamenei seems supportive, but future developments in a region as volatile as the Middle East, combined with rising tensions between rival factions inside Iran, could well change his mind.

The idea of rebuilding the Persian Empire might sound like an exaggeration, but it is not solely the product of the wilder imaginations of some Arab politicians.

There are influential political and military figures in Iran who still firmly believe what they chanted during the Iran-Iraq war in 1980s: "The road to Qods (Jerusalem) passes through Kerbala."

To them, bringing the whole Islamic world under the leadership of Shia Iran and paving the way for the 12th Imam to return to rule the world after more than a thousand years, is not just a dream.

President Hassan Rouhani's pragmatist policy has little in common with the apocalyptic ideology of the hardliners.

For him and his team the Vienna agreement has been a great victory.

He is now in a much stronger position to start the long task of rebuilding the Iranian economy after a decade of punishing sanctions.

He's made it clear that part of this process will involve settling disputes with Arab states and normalising ties with other influential countries.

Hassan Rouhani:

Born in 1948

Islamic activist prior to Iran's 1979 Revolution

Influential figure in Iran-Iraq War

MP (1980-2000)

National Security Advisor to the president (1989 -97, 2000-05)

Chief nuclear negotiator (2003-05)

Regarded as a centrist politician but favoured by reformists

Profile: Hassan Rouhani, President of Iran

Profile: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Economy top priority

For ordinary Iranians the priority now is to end the economic hardship and diplomatic isolation of the past 10 years.

President Rouhani will need the continued support of the Supreme Leader to make these hoped for changes a reality.

As long as that support remains in place, the hardliners dreaming of Jerusalem can be kept in check.

But, Iran still has serious foreign policy concerns in the Middle East.

The continuing rise of the Islamic State group is seen as a very real and present danger in Tehran.

So while the pragmatic President Rouhani might want to pursue a more nuanced approach to diplomacy with his Arab neighbours, it is unlikely that Iran will step back from the influence it's already established in the Middle East.

The checks and balances of Vienna mean Iran is probably best described now not as "a wild beast unleashed" but more one on a long leash.

But as long as the instability in the region continues, it's also likely to remain very much in defensive mode.