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How severe is the terror threat in East Africa? | How severe is the terror threat in East Africa? |
(34 minutes later) | |
Final preparations are under way for US President Barack Obama to touch down in the Kenyan capital this week - his first visit to the country of his father's birth as head of state. | Final preparations are under way for US President Barack Obama to touch down in the Kenyan capital this week - his first visit to the country of his father's birth as head of state. |
As US security personnel flood Nairobi's hotels, the president will step into a country where security and politics are closely entwined. | As US security personnel flood Nairobi's hotels, the president will step into a country where security and politics are closely entwined. |
His trip has provoked divergent assessments of the security threat across Kenya and beyond. | His trip has provoked divergent assessments of the security threat across Kenya and beyond. |
Nairobi governor Evans Kidero sees the visit as the ultimate confirmation of Kenya's security - hailing Obama's stay as a testament to the country's stability. | Nairobi governor Evans Kidero sees the visit as the ultimate confirmation of Kenya's security - hailing Obama's stay as a testament to the country's stability. |
The US State Department, on the other hand, has issued a travel alert for the visit. | The US State Department, on the other hand, has issued a travel alert for the visit. |
It has warned of the potential terrorist threat to the Global Entrepreneurship Summit at which Obama will speak. | It has warned of the potential terrorist threat to the Global Entrepreneurship Summit at which Obama will speak. |
The presidential visit comes days after the reopening of Nairobi's Westgate mall. | The presidential visit comes days after the reopening of Nairobi's Westgate mall. |
Almost two years ago, 67 people were killed in its halls in a four-day siege for which Somali militant group al-Shabab claimed responsibility. | |
Its reopening has been heralded by many as a triumph of national resilience, growing security and, in the words of Kidero, the "indomitable Kenyan spirit". | Its reopening has been heralded by many as a triumph of national resilience, growing security and, in the words of Kidero, the "indomitable Kenyan spirit". |
For others, the reopening of its doors conjures haunting memories, amplified by al-Shabab's continuing attacks - of which its killing of 147 at Garissa University in April is its deadliest to date. | For others, the reopening of its doors conjures haunting memories, amplified by al-Shabab's continuing attacks - of which its killing of 147 at Garissa University in April is its deadliest to date. |
Changing tactics | Changing tactics |
Al-Shabab poses the major terrorist threat in the region and is adapting its tactics as pressure mounts on home soil in neighbouring Somalia. | Al-Shabab poses the major terrorist threat in the region and is adapting its tactics as pressure mounts on home soil in neighbouring Somalia. |
Here, the group has been weakened by concerted military efforts by the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and US covert action. | Here, the group has been weakened by concerted military efforts by the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and US covert action. |
Most recently, 30 militants - including key leaders - were killed in a US drone strike in southern Gedo region last Thursday. | Most recently, 30 militants - including key leaders - were killed in a US drone strike in southern Gedo region last Thursday. |
The loss of strategic territory and personnel has seen al-Shabab expand its operations into Kenya and beyond. | |
This has complicated the landscape of violent extremism in East Africa. The group has long threatened to repay Kenya for military operations in Somalia - and since 2011 has gruesomely followed through. | This has complicated the landscape of violent extremism in East Africa. The group has long threatened to repay Kenya for military operations in Somalia - and since 2011 has gruesomely followed through. |
Yet this shift is more thoroughgoing and strategic in nature. | Yet this shift is more thoroughgoing and strategic in nature. |
Long a territorially focused group with quasi-governmental ambitions to impose Sharia law at home, al-Shabab is now becoming a more mobile, networked regional presence. | |
This has brought it a number of benefits. Al-Shabab's growing reach along the African coast is providing valuable new sources of funding and recruits. | This has brought it a number of benefits. Al-Shabab's growing reach along the African coast is providing valuable new sources of funding and recruits. |
This is a logical adaptation: enhanced global counter-terror finance efforts have strangled funding from the Somali diaspora, amongst other international sources. | This is a logical adaptation: enhanced global counter-terror finance efforts have strangled funding from the Somali diaspora, amongst other international sources. |
In terms of recruitment, as foreign fighters have been drawn to Syria, the group has been overshadowed on the global stage. | In terms of recruitment, as foreign fighters have been drawn to Syria, the group has been overshadowed on the global stage. |
Yet al-Shabab has stepped up its Swahili-language propaganda - which plays on deep-seated social, economic and political grievances in East African states. | |
Growing radicalisation | Growing radicalisation |
In Kenya, an expanding al-Shabab presence has combined potently with growing radicalisation among Muslim youth and separatist tension along the coast. | In Kenya, an expanding al-Shabab presence has combined potently with growing radicalisation among Muslim youth and separatist tension along the coast. |
In Tanzania, there are fears that growing disaffection and domestic extremism could potentially intersect with a greater al-Shabab presence. | In Tanzania, there are fears that growing disaffection and domestic extremism could potentially intersect with a greater al-Shabab presence. |
Meanwhile, enhanced collaboration with organised criminal groups - themselves a growing security concern - is allowing al-Shabab to diversify its income. | Meanwhile, enhanced collaboration with organised criminal groups - themselves a growing security concern - is allowing al-Shabab to diversify its income. |
The incentives for this engagement have only expanded as East Africa has grown as a hub for illicit trafficking - from South Asian heroin to Yemeni arms to Tanzanian ivory. | The incentives for this engagement have only expanded as East Africa has grown as a hub for illicit trafficking - from South Asian heroin to Yemeni arms to Tanzanian ivory. |
The direction in which this more mobile terrorist model of financing and recruitment develops will have long-term implications for East African security. | The direction in which this more mobile terrorist model of financing and recruitment develops will have long-term implications for East African security. |
Its evolution will depend on two sets of factors in particular. | Its evolution will depend on two sets of factors in particular. |
The first relates to tensions within al-Shabab's leadership over the group's strategic direction. | The first relates to tensions within al-Shabab's leadership over the group's strategic direction. |
Traditionalists favour a focus on strengthening the group in Somalia. | Traditionalists favour a focus on strengthening the group in Somalia. |
Internationalists - including former leader Godane, killed last year in a US drone strike - see al-Shabab as a transnational jihadist organisation. | |
With the rise of the self-styled Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria, tensions also persist over global allegiances. | With the rise of the self-styled Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria, tensions also persist over global allegiances. |
An affiliate of al-Qaeda since 2012, al-Shabab is now courted by IS, which has received pledges from groups across North and West Africa. | An affiliate of al-Qaeda since 2012, al-Shabab is now courted by IS, which has received pledges from groups across North and West Africa. |
Rumours have abounded that al-Shabab could soon follow suit. | |
Yet, in an Eid message on Friday, current leader Abu Ubaidah hinted that no such pledge would be forthcoming. | Yet, in an Eid message on Friday, current leader Abu Ubaidah hinted that no such pledge would be forthcoming. |
Who are al-Shabab? | Who are al-Shabab? |
Al-Shabab means The Youth in Arabic. | Al-Shabab means The Youth in Arabic. |
It emerged as the radical youth wing of Somalia's now-defunct Union of Islamic Courts, which controlled Mogadishu in 2006, before being forced out by Ethiopian forces. | It emerged as the radical youth wing of Somalia's now-defunct Union of Islamic Courts, which controlled Mogadishu in 2006, before being forced out by Ethiopian forces. |
There are numerous reports of foreign jihadists going to Somalia to help al-Shabab, from neighbouring countries, as well as the US and Europe. | |
It is banned as a terrorist group by both the US and the UK and is believed to have between 7,000 and 9,000 fighters. | It is banned as a terrorist group by both the US and the UK and is believed to have between 7,000 and 9,000 fighters. |
Who are Somalia's al-Shabab? | Who are Somalia's al-Shabab? |
Deep-rooted grievances | Deep-rooted grievances |
The second set of factors affecting the group's evolution remain extraneous to the organisation. | The second set of factors affecting the group's evolution remain extraneous to the organisation. |
These relate instead to the ability of regional governments to curb al-Shabab and affiliates' power to act as "the voice of the marginalised" on their soil. | |
This poses new challenges - requiring governments to look inward at the deep-rooted grievances held by citizens. | This poses new challenges - requiring governments to look inward at the deep-rooted grievances held by citizens. |
The tendency, instead, has been to depend on polarising hard-security crackdowns on terrorist suspects. | The tendency, instead, has been to depend on polarising hard-security crackdowns on terrorist suspects. |
As al-Shabab continues to recruit heavily amongst marginalised Kenyan Muslim communities, much will depend on the Kenyan government's ability to engage with underlying drivers of radicalisation. | As al-Shabab continues to recruit heavily amongst marginalised Kenyan Muslim communities, much will depend on the Kenyan government's ability to engage with underlying drivers of radicalisation. |
Its approach to addressing them, and its ability to offer citizens better governance and prospects, will be key to improving security in this volatile region. | Its approach to addressing them, and its ability to offer citizens better governance and prospects, will be key to improving security in this volatile region. |
Cathy Haenlein is a research analyst on national security and resilience studies at RUSI and deputy editor of RUSI Newsbrief. | Cathy Haenlein is a research analyst on national security and resilience studies at RUSI and deputy editor of RUSI Newsbrief. |