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| ‘Kirchnerismo’ politics set to outlast Argentina’s outgoing president | ‘Kirchnerismo’ politics set to outlast Argentina’s outgoing president |
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| In Argentinian politics, those who stay in power long enough – or wield it mightily enough – are immortalised with an -ismo. “Kirchnerismo” is the legacy of the 12 years Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her late husband Néstor have run the country, a contemporary spin on the “Peronismo” of Juan and Eva Perón. And like the 1950s-era edition, it is less of an ideology than a ruling style, defined by the concentration of power, populist social welfare programmes and a steady diet of Argentinian nationalism. | In Argentinian politics, those who stay in power long enough – or wield it mightily enough – are immortalised with an -ismo. “Kirchnerismo” is the legacy of the 12 years Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her late husband Néstor have run the country, a contemporary spin on the “Peronismo” of Juan and Eva Perón. And like the 1950s-era edition, it is less of an ideology than a ruling style, defined by the concentration of power, populist social welfare programmes and a steady diet of Argentinian nationalism. |
| Barred by the constitution from running for a third presidential term, Fernández will not be on the ballot in October when Argentinians elect her successor. But she will be on the minds of voters as they decide whether to keep Kirchnerismo going. Just a few months ago, analysts were writing its political obituary, dragged down as it is by a weak economy, unchecked inflation and the shadowy death of prosecutor Alberto Nisman just before he was due to testify against the president in a terrorism case. But she has bounced back in polls, leaving some analysts convinced that her left-populist brand of politics is likely to endure after she leaves office in December. “I don’t see many signs that Kirchnerismo has run its course,” said Ignacio Rodriguez, director of polling firm Ibarometro. “The ideological climate hasn’t changed. You can’t win an election here calling for reprivatisation and liberal economic reforms.” | Barred by the constitution from running for a third presidential term, Fernández will not be on the ballot in October when Argentinians elect her successor. But she will be on the minds of voters as they decide whether to keep Kirchnerismo going. Just a few months ago, analysts were writing its political obituary, dragged down as it is by a weak economy, unchecked inflation and the shadowy death of prosecutor Alberto Nisman just before he was due to testify against the president in a terrorism case. But she has bounced back in polls, leaving some analysts convinced that her left-populist brand of politics is likely to endure after she leaves office in December. “I don’t see many signs that Kirchnerismo has run its course,” said Ignacio Rodriguez, director of polling firm Ibarometro. “The ideological climate hasn’t changed. You can’t win an election here calling for reprivatisation and liberal economic reforms.” |
| Leading in polls ahead of the 9 August primaries is Fernández’s party’s candidate, Daniel Scioli, vice-president under Néstor Kirchner between 2003 and 2007, but not part of the Fernández inner circle.Analysts say he has far too big a political reputation to serve as a mere puppet figure for her to remain in power. | Leading in polls ahead of the 9 August primaries is Fernández’s party’s candidate, Daniel Scioli, vice-president under Néstor Kirchner between 2003 and 2007, but not part of the Fernández inner circle.Analysts say he has far too big a political reputation to serve as a mere puppet figure for her to remain in power. |
| “We have a saying in Argentina,” said Jorge Lanata, the popular talkshow host and muckraking reporter who frequently clashes with Fernández. “Two don’t fit in one chair.” | “We have a saying in Argentina,” said Jorge Lanata, the popular talkshow host and muckraking reporter who frequently clashes with Fernández. “Two don’t fit in one chair.” |
| The governor of the province of Buenos Aires, the country’s most populous, Scioli cultivated his image as an upbeat and efficient task-manager, eschewing the confrontational style of Fernández and her leftist politics for a sunnier, more centrist message. The 58-year-old former businessman also offers a compelling life story, having lost his right arm in a 1989 boat-racing accident. But though he differs in style, Scioli has positioned himself as the candidate of Kirchnerismo continuity. His vice-presidential running mate, Carlos Zannini, is a longtime Fernández consigliere, who retains deep loyalties to the president. Scioli’s campaign team, too, is stocked with “Kirchernistas”. | The governor of the province of Buenos Aires, the country’s most populous, Scioli cultivated his image as an upbeat and efficient task-manager, eschewing the confrontational style of Fernández and her leftist politics for a sunnier, more centrist message. The 58-year-old former businessman also offers a compelling life story, having lost his right arm in a 1989 boat-racing accident. But though he differs in style, Scioli has positioned himself as the candidate of Kirchnerismo continuity. His vice-presidential running mate, Carlos Zannini, is a longtime Fernández consigliere, who retains deep loyalties to the president. Scioli’s campaign team, too, is stocked with “Kirchernistas”. |
| If Scioli wins the presidency with Fernández aide Zannini on the ticket, according to one joke going around Buenos Aires, Scioli had better make sure to open his own drinks. | If Scioli wins the presidency with Fernández aide Zannini on the ticket, according to one joke going around Buenos Aires, Scioli had better make sure to open his own drinks. |
| Scioli’s likely opponent, Buenos Aires mayor Mauricio Macri, 56, has been the leading critic of the Kirchners.The wealthy son of an Italian industrialist, Macri is trying to transcend a reputation for close ties to Argentina’s business and financial elite. His challenge, observers say, will be to unite the disparate members of the anti-Fernández opposition into a broad base of support. “Macri represents change,” said Fabian Perechodnik, director of polling firm Poliarquia. “Scioli represents continuity, with a few changes and adjustments.” | Scioli’s likely opponent, Buenos Aires mayor Mauricio Macri, 56, has been the leading critic of the Kirchners.The wealthy son of an Italian industrialist, Macri is trying to transcend a reputation for close ties to Argentina’s business and financial elite. His challenge, observers say, will be to unite the disparate members of the anti-Fernández opposition into a broad base of support. “Macri represents change,” said Fabian Perechodnik, director of polling firm Poliarquia. “Scioli represents continuity, with a few changes and adjustments.” |
| The appeal of Fernández continuity stems in part from fears that Macri would run the country in the style of former president Carlos Menem, whose application of liberal economic theories and privatisation are blamed for the 2001 economic collapse. Nearly half of the country was left in poverty in the period of financial and political instability that followed, paving the way for the rise of Néstor Kirchner and the brand of Peronismo that he, and later his wife, used to rebuild the Argentinian state. | The appeal of Fernández continuity stems in part from fears that Macri would run the country in the style of former president Carlos Menem, whose application of liberal economic theories and privatisation are blamed for the 2001 economic collapse. Nearly half of the country was left in poverty in the period of financial and political instability that followed, paving the way for the rise of Néstor Kirchner and the brand of Peronismo that he, and later his wife, used to rebuild the Argentinian state. |
| The Kirchners re-nationalised the Argentinian pension system, the state oil company and the state airline. They broadened access to healthcare and education, and even ordered television broadcasters to show football matches for free, with scrolls of pro-government advertising at the bottom of the screen. | The Kirchners re-nationalised the Argentinian pension system, the state oil company and the state airline. They broadened access to healthcare and education, and even ordered television broadcasters to show football matches for free, with scrolls of pro-government advertising at the bottom of the screen. |
| Néstor died of a heart attack in 2010, and while Fernández won a landslide re-election in 2011 her second term has been a rocky one. Relations with the United States turned sour as she developed close ties with the late Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez and other leftist figures in the region. More recently, she has clashed with the international creditors she calls “vultures” who are trying to collect on unpaid debt from the 2001 debacle, winning praise at home. | |
| But the power couple repeatedly stumbled through scandals. Their wealth grew in office through ties to Argentinian businessmen who benefited from government contracts, and after more than a decade Fernández herself is arguably less popular than Kirchnerismo. | But the power couple repeatedly stumbled through scandals. Their wealth grew in office through ties to Argentinian businessmen who benefited from government contracts, and after more than a decade Fernández herself is arguably less popular than Kirchnerismo. |
| The country remains mired in a “structural poverty trap,” according to a former high-ranking Argentinian economic official. “The government has plenty of resources because of increased tax collection, but it has overspent them, irrationally,” he said. “What’s left is poor infrastructure that leaves medium-sized companies unable to compete.” | The country remains mired in a “structural poverty trap,” according to a former high-ranking Argentinian economic official. “The government has plenty of resources because of increased tax collection, but it has overspent them, irrationally,” he said. “What’s left is poor infrastructure that leaves medium-sized companies unable to compete.” |
| Argentina’s wheat harvest is at its lowest point in decades, and growers cite crushing export taxes and currency controls. Beef exports – a traditional source of Argentinian fortune and national pride – have plummeted too, falling behind smaller neighbours Uruguay and Paraguay. | Argentina’s wheat harvest is at its lowest point in decades, and growers cite crushing export taxes and currency controls. Beef exports – a traditional source of Argentinian fortune and national pride – have plummeted too, falling behind smaller neighbours Uruguay and Paraguay. |
| Yet analysts concede that the popular social welfare policies of Kirchnerismo will be difficult for her successor to dial back. | Yet analysts concede that the popular social welfare policies of Kirchnerismo will be difficult for her successor to dial back. |
| Though Scioli is viewed as the guardian of Kirchnerismo policies, he enjoys enough personal distance from her to avoid the fallout of her worst scandals, including the death of Nisman. Surveys found a majority of Argentinians believed Nisman was murdered, but street protests against Fernández have faded, and the government appears to have succeeded in depicting him as an unstable, egomaniac playboy who cracked under pressure and took his own life. | Though Scioli is viewed as the guardian of Kirchnerismo policies, he enjoys enough personal distance from her to avoid the fallout of her worst scandals, including the death of Nisman. Surveys found a majority of Argentinians believed Nisman was murdered, but street protests against Fernández have faded, and the government appears to have succeeded in depicting him as an unstable, egomaniac playboy who cracked under pressure and took his own life. |
| He was found dead in his apartment from a gunshot wound a day before he was scheduled to give testimony in Argentina’s congress accusing Fernández of colluding with Iran to cover up the worst terrorist attack in the country’s history, the 1994 bombing of an Argentinian-Israeli cultural centre in Buenos Aires that killed 85. | He was found dead in his apartment from a gunshot wound a day before he was scheduled to give testimony in Argentina’s congress accusing Fernández of colluding with Iran to cover up the worst terrorist attack in the country’s history, the 1994 bombing of an Argentinian-Israeli cultural centre in Buenos Aires that killed 85. |
| This article appeared in Guardian Weekly, which incorporates material from the Washington Post | This article appeared in Guardian Weekly, which incorporates material from the Washington Post |
| • This article was amended on 21 July 2015. An earlier version incorrectly stated that Néstor Kirchner died in 2011. Néstor Kirchner died on 27 October 2010. |