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Baby boom to put pressure on UK secondary schools Baby boom to put pressure on English secondary schools
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Parents struggling to find primary school places will face a similar problem when their children reach secondary school age, as the recent baby boom and population growth causes school rolls to swell to 1970s levels.Parents struggling to find primary school places will face a similar problem when their children reach secondary school age, as the recent baby boom and population growth causes school rolls to swell to 1970s levels.
The number of pupils at state schools in England is forecast to rise by nearly a million to reach 8 million within a decade, according to a central projection from the Office for National Statistics, with the most rapid increases seen in London.The number of pupils at state schools in England is forecast to rise by nearly a million to reach 8 million within a decade, according to a central projection from the Office for National Statistics, with the most rapid increases seen in London.
The figures suggest secondary schools will be hit by a double whammy, as the 20% increase in pupil numbers between now and 2024 coincides with a government freeze on pupil funding that is already leaving many schools struggling to balance their budgets.The figures suggest secondary schools will be hit by a double whammy, as the 20% increase in pupil numbers between now and 2024 coincides with a government freeze on pupil funding that is already leaving many schools struggling to balance their budgets.
Primary schools will continue to face pressure on places as the peak of the baby boom hits next year. It is the equivalent of every primary school in England having to find an additional six places.Primary schools will continue to face pressure on places as the peak of the baby boom hits next year. It is the equivalent of every primary school in England having to find an additional six places.
Russell Hobby, general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, said the government lacked a coherent plan to tackle the sustained rise in pupil numbers, with many schools already stretched to the limit.Russell Hobby, general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, said the government lacked a coherent plan to tackle the sustained rise in pupil numbers, with many schools already stretched to the limit.
“The current system is fragmented and free schools are an inefficient and insufficient way of meeting the numbers,” Hobby said, arguing that local authorities should be given back powers to open new schools.“The current system is fragmented and free schools are an inefficient and insufficient way of meeting the numbers,” Hobby said, arguing that local authorities should be given back powers to open new schools.
“Schools are also running low on money. The government is not taking account of pensions, national insurance, cost of living, increments, living wages and, crucially, the cost to schools of picking up on cuts to other public services. An increase in pupil numbers is an added pressure on schools at a very difficult time.”“Schools are also running low on money. The government is not taking account of pensions, national insurance, cost of living, increments, living wages and, crucially, the cost to schools of picking up on cuts to other public services. An increase in pupil numbers is an added pressure on schools at a very difficult time.”
Related: Primary schools: recent baby boom puts pressure on admissions systemRelated: Primary schools: recent baby boom puts pressure on admissions system
But the Department for Education said it was aware of the scale of the problem and that schools and councils were responding well to the challenge of rising pupil numbers.But the Department for Education said it was aware of the scale of the problem and that schools and councils were responding well to the challenge of rising pupil numbers.
“We want every parent to have access to a good school place for their child. Despite rising pupil numbers, 95% of parents received an offer at one of their three preferred schools,” a DfE spokesperson said.“We want every parent to have access to a good school place for their child. Despite rising pupil numbers, 95% of parents received an offer at one of their three preferred schools,” a DfE spokesperson said.
“But we recognise that as the population grows the demand for new school places increases. That is why we doubled the funding for school places to £5bn in the last parliament, which has helped create almost 500,000 new school places. A further £7bn has already been committed to create even more places over the next six years.”“But we recognise that as the population grows the demand for new school places increases. That is why we doubled the funding for school places to £5bn in the last parliament, which has helped create almost 500,000 new school places. A further £7bn has already been committed to create even more places over the next six years.”
The ONS projections are based on future birth rates and population growth, including a “high population variant” adding a further 300,000 children aged 5-15 from 2019 onwards. That projection includes an additional 35,000 pupils from migration and 265,000 thanks to higher fertility.The ONS projections are based on future birth rates and population growth, including a “high population variant” adding a further 300,000 children aged 5-15 from 2019 onwards. That projection includes an additional 35,000 pupils from migration and 265,000 thanks to higher fertility.
The central projection shows the most rapid growth in secondary schools, where rolls have been declining for more than a decade.The central projection shows the most rapid growth in secondary schools, where rolls have been declining for more than a decade.
“The secondary school population has been falling since 2005 and was 2.74m in 2015. However, the number of pupils in state-funded secondary schools starts to rise in 2016 as a result of increases in the birth rate since 2002,” the ONS said.“The secondary school population has been falling since 2005 and was 2.74m in 2015. However, the number of pupils in state-funded secondary schools starts to rise in 2016 as a result of increases in the birth rate since 2002,” the ONS said.
It expects secondary school rolls in England to number 3.3 million pupils by 2024, when primary schools will have 4.7 million pupils.It expects secondary school rolls in England to number 3.3 million pupils by 2024, when primary schools will have 4.7 million pupils.
“The peak annual rate of increase is expected to be seen in 2016, with a projected 2.4% increase in the population at state-funded primary schools. The increase is then expected to reduce, as the population is affected by the lower birth numbers in 2013 and other factors,” the ONS reported.“The peak annual rate of increase is expected to be seen in 2016, with a projected 2.4% increase in the population at state-funded primary schools. The increase is then expected to reduce, as the population is affected by the lower birth numbers in 2013 and other factors,” the ONS reported.