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China may adopt 'two-child policy' this year as demographic timebomb looms China may bring in 'two-child policy' to tackle demographic timebomb
(about 7 hours later)
Thirty-five years after enacting draconian birth control rules blamed for millions of forced abortions and the creation of a demographic “time bomb”, China could be on the verge of introducing a two-child policy. Thirty-five years after enacting draconian birth control rules blamed for millions of forced abortions and the creation of a demographic “timebomb”, China could be on the verge of introducing a two-child policy.
The new regulation, under which all Chinese couples would be allowed to have two children, could be implemented “as soon as the end of the year if everything goes well,” a government source was quoted as saying by the China Business News. The new regulation, under which all Chinese couples would be allowed to have two children, could be implemented “as soon as the end of the year if everything goes well”, a government source was quoted as saying by the China Business News.
Liang Zhongtang, a demographer from the Shanghai Academy of Social Science, said the one-child policy “should have been abolished long ago”. The highly controversial and often brutally enforced one-child policy was introduced by China’s Communist leaders in 1980 amid fears of a catastrophic population explosion.
“The core issue is not about one-child or two-children. It’s about reproductive freedom. It’s about basic human rights. In the past, the government failed to grasp the essence of the issue.”
Related: China’s little emperors – the children without siblingsRelated: China’s little emperors – the children without siblings
Beijing, which introduced the one-child policy in 1980, was quick to play down claims the two-child policy would be in place by the end of the year. The government credits it with preventing 400 million births, but the human cost has been immense with forced sterilisations and abortions, infanticide and a dramatic gender imbalance that means millions of men will never find female partners.
“No timetable has been set to allow all couples in the country to have a second child,” the National Health and Family Planning Commission insisted according to the state-run China Daily. In 2012 – in one of the most shocking recent cases of human rights abuses related to the policy – a 23-year-old woman from Shaanxi province in north-west China was abducted by family planning officials and forced to abort her child seven months into the pregnancy.
Lu Jiehua, a professor of demographics at Peking University, told the Global Times the change would probably come next year. “All relevant policies, regulations, formalities and facilities need to be in place to support [the policy] and it takes time.” Liang Zhongtang, a demographer from the Shanghai Academy of Social Science, said the policy “should have been abolished long ago”.
Liang Zhongtang, the demographer, said the apparent decision to bring in a two-child policy had been driven by growing public opposition to family planning laws. The internet – to which nearly 650m Chinese people are now connected – had made public hostility more visible and more powerful, he added. “The core issue is not about one child or two children. It’s about reproductive freedom. It’s about basic human rights. In the past, the government failed to grasp the essence of the issue,” he said.
“The government – under increasing public pressure – has to respond to people’s demands.” Beijing quickly played down claims that the two-child policy would be in place by the end of the year. “No timetable has been set to allow all couples in the country to have a second child,” the national health and family planning commission insisted, according to the state-run China Daily.
Moves to loosen strict birth control rules are also a response to a demographic “time bomb” created by the one-child policy, which Beijing credits with preventing 400 million births. Lu Jiehua, a professor of demographics at Peking University, told the Global Times the change was more likely to come next year. “It’s not simply about implementing a second-child policy. All relevant policies, regulations, formalities and facilities need to be in place to support [the policy] and it takes time.”
Experts warn that China’s population is ageing rapidly while the labour pool is shrinking. The country will have nearly 440 million over-60s by 2050, according to UN estimates. Liang said the apparent decision to bring in a two-child policy had been driven by growing public opposition to family planning laws. The internet – to which nearly 650 million Chinese people are now connected – had made public hostility more visible and more powerful.
Meanwhile, the working-age population – those aged between 15 and 59 - fell by 3.71 million last year, a trend that is expected to continue. He added: “The government – under increasing public pressure – has to respond to people’s demands.”
In recent years there has been a gradual relaxation of the one-child policy, which already allowed ethnic minority families and rural couples whose firstborn was a girl to have more than one child. Moves to loosen strict birth control rules are also a response to a demographic “timebomb” created by the one-child policy.
Experts warn that China’s 1.3 billion-strong population is ageing rapidly, while the labour pool is shrinking. The country will have nearly 440 million over-60s by 2050, according to UN estimates, placing a massive strain on government resources.
Meanwhile, the working-age population – those aged between 15 and 59 – fell by 3.71 million last year, a trend that is expected to continue. If that trend is not reversed, “the future for China’s economy will look grim”, said Yi Fuxian, a demographer and outspoken critic of the one-child policy.
In recent years, there has been a gradual relaxation of China’s notorious family planning laws, which already permitted ethnic minority families and rural couples whose firstborn was a girl to have more than one child.
At the moment, many people are not willing to have more children, even if they are encouraged to do so
Since 2013 couples in many parts of the country have been allowed to have two children if one parent was an only child.Since 2013 couples in many parts of the country have been allowed to have two children if one parent was an only child.
State media has celebrated the results of that policy shift, pointing to an additional 470,000 births in 2014 compared to the year before. State media has celebrated the results of that policy shift, pointing to an additional 470,000 births in 2014 compared to the year before. But the mini-baby boom authorities had hoped for has failed to materialise. Experts say the fertility rate is not rising fast enough, with financial constraints putting many urban couples off having a second child.
But experts say the fertility rate is not rising fast enough with financial constraints putting many urban couples off having a second child. “The change is imperative,” said Yi, whose book, A Big Country with an Empty Nest, attacks his country’s family planning policies. “The government’s selective two-child policy has proved a failure. Scrapping [the] one-child policy is the only sensible solution to China’s population crisis.”
“The change is imperative,” said Yi Fuxian, a demographer and outspoken critic of the one-child policy. “The government’s selective two-child policy has proved a failure. Scrapping one-child policy is the only sensible solution to China’s population crisis.” Speaking earlier this month, Yang Wenzhuang, a senior family planning official, admitted China needed to act fast to “address a major demographic challenge facing the nation”.
For millions of “orphaned” parents – who lost the only child the Communist party allowed them to have – news of the impending policy change brought little comfort. Liang said Beijing’s apparent decision to scrap the one-child policy was a positive and long overdue step. But even a full shift to a nationwide two-child policy would do little to reverse the demographic trends already set in place.
Huo Daozhong, 58, whose only son took his own life in 2013, said: “It’s too late. The policy has nothing to do with us now.” “At the moment, many people are not willing to have more children, even if they are encouraged to do so. So in reality the government introducing the two-child policy still won’t have much of an impact,” he said.
“He was only 30-years-old when he died. It felt like all our hopes had gone,” Huo said of his only late son. “Nothing matters now. We are alive but feel dead inside.” Last year, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences warned that China was close to falling into the so-called “low fertility trap”, a vicious cycle from which countries find it hard to escape.
For an estimated 2 million “orphaned” parents – who lost the only child the Communist party allowed them to have – news of the impending policy change brought little comfort. Huo Daozhong, a 58-year-old from Henan province whose only son killed himself in 2013, said: “It’s too late. The policy has nothing to do with us now.”
Each year, around 76,000 families join the ranks of China’s so-called “shidu” families when their only children die. “He was only 30 years old when he died. It felt like all our hopes had gone,” Huo said of his son. “Nothing matters now. We are alive but feel dead inside.”
Additional reporting by Luna LinAdditional reporting by Luna Lin