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A Corbyn-inspired split would be a Labour catastrophe – just look at Europe A Corbyn-inspired split would be a Labour catastrophe – just look across the Channel
(about 1 hour later)
Labour has had its fair share of crises over the years. However, apart from a few fleeting years in the interwar period and in the early-to-mid 1980s, it’s never faced much serious competition on the left side of the political spectrum. But what if the summer fling that some of its members seem to be having with Jeremy Corbyn isn’t all over by October? What if, instead, it represents the beginning of a big split (or splits) on the British left?Labour has had its fair share of crises over the years. However, apart from a few fleeting years in the interwar period and in the early-to-mid 1980s, it’s never faced much serious competition on the left side of the political spectrum. But what if the summer fling that some of its members seem to be having with Jeremy Corbyn isn’t all over by October? What if, instead, it represents the beginning of a big split (or splits) on the British left?
Labour’s almost sole occupancy of the left makes it an outlier. Other social democratic parties, particularly (but not exclusively) those operating under proportional representation, have long had to cope with at least one alternative on their radical flank. And even the horrific crimes of “actually existing socialism” weren’t enough to kill off the Communist party in those countries where it was funded by Moscow or supported by a sympathetic subculture.Labour’s almost sole occupancy of the left makes it an outlier. Other social democratic parties, particularly (but not exclusively) those operating under proportional representation, have long had to cope with at least one alternative on their radical flank. And even the horrific crimes of “actually existing socialism” weren’t enough to kill off the Communist party in those countries where it was funded by Moscow or supported by a sympathetic subculture.
Related: What Greek politics teaches the Labour party: there is an alternative | Aditya ChakraborttyRelated: What Greek politics teaches the Labour party: there is an alternative | Aditya Chakrabortty
This happened even where, as in France, a majoritarian electoral system should have encouraged centre-left voters into supporting a more moderate, centrist alternative. Today, the fact that French voters get to cast two ballots a week apart, thereby allowing them to vote first with their hearts and only then with their heads, means that François Hollande has to rely on the marvellously named Miscellaneous Left – Divers Gauche – (as well as the Greens and the Radical Left) for his majority.This happened even where, as in France, a majoritarian electoral system should have encouraged centre-left voters into supporting a more moderate, centrist alternative. Today, the fact that French voters get to cast two ballots a week apart, thereby allowing them to vote first with their hearts and only then with their heads, means that François Hollande has to rely on the marvellously named Miscellaneous Left – Divers Gauche – (as well as the Greens and the Radical Left) for his majority.
In Italy, all this (plus the fact that, as in France, the far left led resistance to home-grown and German fascism) meant that the PCI – the Italian Communist party – was the biggest party on the left until the fall of the Berlin Wall, rather than the Socialists. Indeed, only now, a quarter of a century later, does a social democratic party finally seem to have established itself as anything remotely resembling an automatic first choice for non-conservative, non-populist voters.In Italy, all this (plus the fact that, as in France, the far left led resistance to home-grown and German fascism) meant that the PCI – the Italian Communist party – was the biggest party on the left until the fall of the Berlin Wall, rather than the Socialists. Indeed, only now, a quarter of a century later, does a social democratic party finally seem to have established itself as anything remotely resembling an automatic first choice for non-conservative, non-populist voters.
And Matteo Renzi, the leader of Italy’s Democratic party, isn’t of course the only southern European social democrat still obliged to look over his shoulder. Greece, where Syriza looks as if has destroyed Pasok, is just the most extreme example. The Portuguese socialists, for instance, have to worry about a Left Bloc made up of Greens and communists. And in Spain, a United Left that had begun to look like it wasn’t going to trouble the PSOE – Spain’s Socialist party – for much longer suddenly helped give rise to Podemos.And Matteo Renzi, the leader of Italy’s Democratic party, isn’t of course the only southern European social democrat still obliged to look over his shoulder. Greece, where Syriza looks as if has destroyed Pasok, is just the most extreme example. The Portuguese socialists, for instance, have to worry about a Left Bloc made up of Greens and communists. And in Spain, a United Left that had begun to look like it wasn’t going to trouble the PSOE – Spain’s Socialist party – for much longer suddenly helped give rise to Podemos.
Even in Germany, the once-mighty SPD has for some time been trying – none too successfully – to cope with the double trouble posed by the Greens and the leftwing party Die Linke. New Zealand’s Labour party has had a similar problem (further complicated by the rise of Maori parties) since it adopted a German-style mixed electoral system in the early 1990s. Its Australian counterpart too has lost its historic lock on the left as the Greens there have established a seemingly permanent foothold. In Canada – in marked contrast to the US, where the Democrats go unchallenged – the centre-left is divided between two alternatives.Even in Germany, the once-mighty SPD has for some time been trying – none too successfully – to cope with the double trouble posed by the Greens and the leftwing party Die Linke. New Zealand’s Labour party has had a similar problem (further complicated by the rise of Maori parties) since it adopted a German-style mixed electoral system in the early 1990s. Its Australian counterpart too has lost its historic lock on the left as the Greens there have established a seemingly permanent foothold. In Canada – in marked contrast to the US, where the Democrats go unchallenged – the centre-left is divided between two alternatives.
Back in Europe, the once hegemonic Scandinavian Social Democrats have been coping with new left and environmental challengers since the late 60s/early 70s. Even closer to home, the Dutch PvdA (the Labour party) is also forced to compete with radical left and green parties, and is nowadays only capable – like its German and Danish counterparts – of winning a measly 25% of the vote. Worse, the PvdA, struggling (like its counterparts elsewhere) to adjust to globalisation, seems stuck between a rock and a hard place, bleeding votes not just to the left but to the “welfare chauvinists” of the populist radical right.Back in Europe, the once hegemonic Scandinavian Social Democrats have been coping with new left and environmental challengers since the late 60s/early 70s. Even closer to home, the Dutch PvdA (the Labour party) is also forced to compete with radical left and green parties, and is nowadays only capable – like its German and Danish counterparts – of winning a measly 25% of the vote. Worse, the PvdA, struggling (like its counterparts elsewhere) to adjust to globalisation, seems stuck between a rock and a hard place, bleeding votes not just to the left but to the “welfare chauvinists” of the populist radical right.
The support for the Greens, SNP and Ukip means the electoral consequences of a Labour split would be much worse nowThe support for the Greens, SNP and Ukip means the electoral consequences of a Labour split would be much worse now
This, surely, is the nightmare vision for Labour in Britain – one with which the SDP-schism and Militant entryism of the 80s could pale in comparison. The support that Ukip, the Greens and the SNP are nowadays capable of commanding means that the electoral consequences of any Labour split would be much worse now than they were back then.This, surely, is the nightmare vision for Labour in Britain – one with which the SDP-schism and Militant entryism of the 80s could pale in comparison. The support that Ukip, the Greens and the SNP are nowadays capable of commanding means that the electoral consequences of any Labour split would be much worse now than they were back then.
Not only that. First-past-the-post would ensure that those electoral consequences would be even more disastrous for Labour than for its continental counterparts.Not only that. First-past-the-post would ensure that those electoral consequences would be even more disastrous for Labour than for its continental counterparts.
In many European countries a quarter of the vote is enough to earn a party a shot at government, albeit as a minority administration or a coalition partner. In the UK, dropping much under 30% can make the difference between winning hundreds of seats and winning tens. Realising this should (repeat, should) rapidly bring Labour to its senses. But at the moment I’m not sure I’d bet on it.In many European countries a quarter of the vote is enough to earn a party a shot at government, albeit as a minority administration or a coalition partner. In the UK, dropping much under 30% can make the difference between winning hundreds of seats and winning tens. Realising this should (repeat, should) rapidly bring Labour to its senses. But at the moment I’m not sure I’d bet on it.