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Taliban Confirm Death of Mullah Omar and Weigh Successor Death of Mullah Omar Exposes Divisions Within Taliban
(about 7 hours later)
The Taliban confirmed on Thursday that their supreme leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, had died. But the group’s wrestling with the question of who would succeed him as head of the Afghan insurgency — or whether it would splinter irrevocably — already seemed well underway. KABUL, Afghanistan — With word of Mullah Muhammad Omar’s death now getting out, most likely two years after the event, the world is catching up with a Taliban leadership crisis already in progress.
With the future of political negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government up in the air, two candidates seemed positioned to vie for leadership: Mullah Omar’s eldest son, Yaqoub, and closest deputy, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour. The questions the Taliban are wrestling with include not just who stands to succeed Mullah Omar as leader, but whether anyone has enough support to keep the insurgency from splintering irrevocably, especially over the issue of peace talks, according to Afghan and Western officials.
Interviews with a range of Taliban members over the past few days indicated that most saw Mullah Mansour as the de facto leader of the Taliban’s primary governing body, known as the Quetta Shura, in exile in Pakistan. He had already been acting in Mullah Omar’s name for several years, even as other Taliban leaders lost contact with the movement’s supreme commander. For the moment, the Taliban’s deputy leader over the past five years, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, is the de facto leader of the group’s governing body in exile, the Quetta Shura. He has had years to influence who rose among the Taliban’s ranks, has the tacit acceptance of the group’s Pakistani military monitors, and he has been the leader in a year when the Taliban have made their biggest military gains on the Afghan battlefield.
But the formal succession of leadership of the Taliban’s core command is far from finalized, cautioned a member of the Quetta Shura who was interviewed by telephone and spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid angering his colleagues or the Pakistani authorities who monitor them. But interviews with a range Taliban members, including senior commanders in Afghanistan and leadership figures in Pakistan, suggest that the long-term question of who could lead the insurgency is far from settled. Most characterized the Taliban as being in discord, and two of the most senior militants, including a member of the Quetta Shura, said that the leadership question would be decided at a major council meeting in the coming days.
The shura member said the Taliban were in the midst of trying to gather its leaders to discuss the future of the insurgency and decide whether to continue trying to engage in talks with the Afghan government, a topic that has already provoked discord within the Taliban’s leadership. Some admitted receiving final confirmation of their supreme leader’s death only when the news media reported it on Wednesday. That raised the likelihood of more hard feelings toward the current Taliban leadership after a year when several disgruntled commanders quit the group — some to join the Islamic State — and openly declared their suspicions that Mullah Omar was dead.
“The Islamic Emirate,” the member said, using the Taliban’s formal name, “is trying to convene a gathering soon to end the differences between the leadership.” Analysts and Taliban members also described Mullah Mansour’s apparent acceptance of negotiations with the Afghan government this month as a deeply divisive issue within the insurgency.
The shura member spoke with a reporter after the Afghan government announced that officials believed Mullah Omar had died in a Karachi-area hospital in 2013. “The Islamic Emirate is trying to convene a gathering soon to end the differences between the leadership,” said the Quetta Shura member, speaking by telephone and on the condition of anonymity to avoid angering his colleagues and their Pakistani monitors.
After initially denying that Mullah Omar had died, the group’s most prominent spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid, reversed course on Thursday, issuing the group’s official confirmation in a statement that announced, “The commander of the faithful has passed away.” No time frame for the death was given, other than to say he died “some time ago” after being ill. Afghan officials and Taliban members said two names were rising in leadership discussions: Mullah Mansour’s, and that of Mullah Omar’s oldest son, Yaqoub, a mullah in his mid-20s.
The statement, in Pashto, was issued in the name of the Taliban as well as Mullah Omar’s family. Some of the senior Taliban members said that Mullah Yaqoub had prominent support, including from Mullah Abdul Qayuum Zakir, a senior Taliban military commander. He and Mullah Mansour have long been rivals, officials said, and the Quetta Shura member said their differences had intensified over the question of whether to engage in peace talks.
The statement claimed that Mullah Omar had never left Afghanistan after his government was toppled in 2001. Most Afghan and Western officials believe Mullah Omar received refuge in Pakistan and led the insurgency from there for a number of years before becoming increasingly cloistered and removed from the Taliban’s operations. For now, the talks, which opened with a meeting on July 7, appeared to be off while the Taliban discussed their future. Pakistan’s foreign affairs ministry, which was hosting the meetings, said in a statement that a second round of face-to-face peace talks, scheduled for Friday, would be delayed at the request of the Taliban’s leadership “in view of the reports regarding the death of Mullah Omar and the resulting uncertainty.”
“He never left Afghanistan for Pakistan or any other country,” it said, adding, “There is evidence that could prove he had never been outside of the country.” The Taliban officially acknowledged that Mullah Omar was dead only on Thursday, a day after Afghan officials announced that they had confirmed he had died in a Karachi-area hospital in 2013.
He was described as “an honorable and sincere leader of the Islamic nation who hoisted the fallen flags of Islamic independence under very difficult circumstances.” The group’s most prominent spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid, issued a statement confirming that “the commander of the faithful” had died after an illness, without being specific about the time frame. The group’s political office in Qatar said on Twitter that he had died on the afternoon of April 23, 2013, but that the death had been kept hidden.
It concluded with a message from Mullah Omar’s brother and eldest son requesting pardon on Mullah Omar’s behalf for any wrongs that might have been committed during Taliban times, an era when public executions were common and the Hazaras, an ethnic and religious minority, were repressed and subject to mass killings. The two relatives, the statement said, “specially ask all the Muslims to pardon him if anyone’s right was violated in the era of Islamic Emirate under the leadership of Mullah Mohammad Omar Mujahid.” The main Taliban statement concluded with an apology from Mullah Omar’s family. It was likely in keeping with an Afghan custom of settling grievances upon death, but it resonated for many who lived through Mullah Omar’s reign. Two family members — Mullah Omar’s brother and Mullah Yaqoub, his son — asked Muslims for pardon on his behalf “if anyone’s rights were violated in the era of the Islamic Emirate under the leadership of Mullah Mohammad Omar Mujahid.”
On Thursday, Pakistan’s foreign affairs ministry said in a statement that a second round of face-to-face peace talks, scheduled for Friday, would be delayed “in view of the reports regarding the death of Mullah Omar and the resulting uncertainty.” The statement added that the postponement came at the request “of the Afghan Taliban leadership.” So long as his followers accepted that Mullah Omar might be alive, the insurgency held together to a remarkable extent. That cohesion persisted even after Taliban leaders and commanders stopped hearing from him directly and had begun questioning whether he was dead.
So long as his followers accepted that Mullah Omar might be alive, the insurgency held together to a remarkable extent. That held true even after Taliban leaders and commanders stopped hearing from him directly and had begun questioning whether he was dead — or, if not dead, why he did not show himself. Now, with the reality out in the open, some analysts believe the question is not whether the Taliban will splinter, but how severely. The answer has important implications for an already-chaotic battlefield that Afghan and Western officials are struggling to keep up with, and also for the prospect of any negotiated peace.
Some individual insurgent factions, such as the Haqqani Network, which is responsible for many of the insurgents’ most spectacular and devastating terrorist attacks, were bound by an oath of loyalty directly to Mullah Omar himself, according to analysts and Western officials. “It’s already starting to fracture,” said Graeme Smith, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group in Kabul. “We’ve already seen insurgent leaders break off from the Taliban, declaring that Mullah Omar is dead and their oaths of loyalty are no longer valid.”
And it remains to be seen how accepting some of the factions are of a successor, the Quetta shura member said, adding that the “Haqqani group is sending a message that it will only swear allegiance if Mullah Yaqoub is appointed as his father’s successor. It will not accept any other Shura members as Mullah Omar’s successor.” Some analysts suggested that the death of an inspirational, and notably conservative, leader might make some within the Taliban more likely to accept that a peace process was desirable. But Mr. Smith suggested that the news might in fact have the opposite effect. “The nightmare for peace negotiators is that they will end up with a 1,000 sharp splinters as opposed to one unified opponent,” he said.
“Only Mullah Yaqoub is acceptable to the Haqqani network,” the Quetta shura member said, although it could not be independently confirmed. Officials have said that the Quetta Shura has been under heavy pressure to join talks by Pakistani military and intelligence officials, who have leverage over the Taliban’s leaders because they mostly live in exile with their families in Pakistan. The Pakistanis have intimidated shura members who stood in the way, the Quetta Shura member said.
Already there are signs that divisions within the Taliban are deepening – and possibly headed toward conflict – as the insurgency confronts a future without Mullah Omar. “Many Taliban members have been arrested in Quetta and elsewhere by the Pakistani authorities, some have been detained for a brief period and others are still in custody,” he said.
A few commanders, citing their doubts about Mullah Omar’s condition, have defected to the Islamic State over the past year. In recent months, Mullah Mansour’s support, or acquiescence, depending on who describes it, for the Pakistani-organized peace talks has been a divisive issue. Among the most prominent of his opponents is Mullah Zakir, a former detainee at the American prison camp at Guantánamo Bay. He commands a vast network of Taliban fighters centered in Helmand Province, where some of the bloodiest battles of the insurgency have been fought.
“It’s already starting to fracture,” said Graeme Smith, a senior researcher for the International Crisis Group in Kabul who has written a book on southern Afghanistan. “We’ve already seen insurgent leaders break off from the Taliban, declaring that Mullah Omar is dead and their oaths of loyalty are no longer valid.” “There are ideological differences,” the Quetta Shura member said. “Mullah Zakir does not want peace talks to happen, but Mullah Mansour has been forced by the Pakistani government to rally Shura members behind peace negotiations.”
Mr. Smith argued that news of Mullah Omar’s death, which some commentators suggested could aid the peace process, might in fact have the opposite effect. “The nightmare for peace negotiators is that they will end up with a 1,000 sharp splinters as opposed to one unified opponent,” he said. Mullah Zakir is said to have thrown his support behind Mullah Omar’s son, Mullah Yaqoub, who has had little involvement in Taliban politics in the past.
But the main division within the insurgency is between Mullah Mansour and Mullah Abdul Qayuum Zakir, a senior military commander. It is an old schism that has been latent for several years, but has recently flared up again as the Taliban has taken up discussions about whether to further pursue peace negotiations with the Afghan government. A senior Afghan official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, said Mullah Yaqoub had been active in recent months, traveling to Gulf countries to meet with businessmen and Taliban members in exile.
The Taliban has felt pressure to join peace talks from the Pakistani government, which has leverage over the Taliban’s leaders because they mostly live in exile with their families in Pakistan. Since, Pakistan decided, over the past year, to organize peace talks, it has intimidated Quetta shura members who stood in the way, the shura member said. The official noted that Mullah Yaqoub had been closer to his mother’s side of the family than to his paternal uncle, Mullah Manan Hotak, who has been involved in Taliban decision-making.
“Many Taliban members have been arrested in Quetta and elsewhere by the Pakistani authorities, some have been detained for a brief period and others are still in custody,” the Shura member said, adding that he had heard that one of the Taliban’s top clerics had even been picked up Pakistani authorities because “he was against the current peace dialogue with the Afghan government.” The shura member said that the symbolism of elevating Mullah Yaqoub was likely to appeal to many of the Taliban’s fighting commanders in the field. However, within Pakistan, among the Taliban’s senior leadership, there is considerable support for Mullah Mansour to succeed Mullah Omar.
Over the past couple of years, Taliban leaders who once had access to Mullah Omar largely became cut off. Mullah Mansour, a close associate of Mullah Omar’s for more than two decades and the minister of aviation during the Taliban government, became the primary conduit for leadership directives, Afghan and American officials said, citing intelligence reporting. “They say Mansour is good and had Mullah Omar’s trust,” the shura member said.
Over the past several years, Taliban leaders who once had access to Mullah Omar largely became cut off. Mullah Mansour, a close associate of Mullah Omar’s for more than two decades and the minister of aviation during the Taliban government, became the primary conduit for leadership directives, Afghan and American officials said, citing intelligence reporting.
Whether Mullah Mansour was truly passing on directions from Mullah Omar or instead was pretending to be in touch with a dead man — or whether the first possibility later turned into the second — remains a potent issue for Mullah Mansour’s credibility within the Taliban.Whether Mullah Mansour was truly passing on directions from Mullah Omar or instead was pretending to be in touch with a dead man — or whether the first possibility later turned into the second — remains a potent issue for Mullah Mansour’s credibility within the Taliban.
At the moment, Mullah Mansour “is now leading the Emirate,” the member of the Quetta Shura said. But his position is far from assured in the long run. Even after the Taliban’s confirmation of their leader’s death, some Taliban commanders did not believe it, and others seemed philosophical about it. From them came a reminder of how Mullah Omar came to power — in combat, and in conquest — and of how they would prefer to continue.
In recent months, Mullah Mansour’s support, or acquiescence, depending on who describes it, for the Pakistani-organized peace talks has already proven a boon for his main rival: Mullah Zakir, a former detainee at the American prison camp at Guantánamo Bay. He was never seen as particularly close to Mullah Omar, but he commands a vast network of Taliban fighters centered in Helmand Province, where some of the bloodiest battles of the insurgency have been fought. “Whether it is Mullah Mansour or the son of Mullah Omar — it makes no difference for us whoever leads the Taliban movement,” said Mullah Asadullah, a Taliban district commander in Oruzgan Province, in southern Afghanistan. “We will keep up our jihad, our struggle to free Afghanistan from occupation.”
“There are ideological differences between Mullah Zakir and Mullah Mansour over the peace dialogue with the Afghan government – Mullah Zakir does not want peace talks to happen, but Mullah Mansour has been forced by the Pakistani government to rally Shura members behind peace negotiations,” the Quetta shura member said.
Mullah Zakir is at the heart of the looming succession struggle, and has thrown his support behind Mullah Omar’s son, Mullah Yaqoub, and his trying to bring him to power. Little is known about Mullah Yaqoub, who is thought to be in his mid-20s, and he has had little involvement in Taliban politics in the past.
A senior Afghan official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, said Yaqoub had been active in recent months, traveling to Gulf countries to meet with businessmen and Taliban members in exile.
The official noted that Yaqoub had been closer to his mother’s side of the family than to his paternal uncle, Mullah Manan Hotak, who has been involved in Taliban decision-making.
The shura member said that elevating Yaqoub was likely to appeal to many of the Taliban’s fighting commanders in the field who are squarely behind “the idea of having him replace Mullah Omar.” However, within Pakistan, among the Taliban’s senior leadership, there is considerable support for Mullah Mansour to succeed Mullah Omar.
“They say Mansour is good and had Mullah Omar’s trust,” the shura member said, adding that Mullah Mansour “has the experience and can lead the movement.”