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The looming August battle for the Iran nuclear deal The looming August battle for the Iran nuclear deal
(35 minutes later)
On Monday, almost every freshman member of the US Congress will jet off on an all-expenses paid trip to Israel for a week of briefings and lobbying intended to ensure they vote against the Iran nuclear deal agreed on July 14. On Monday, almost every freshman member of the US Congress will jet off on an all-expenses paid trip to Israel for a week of briefings and lobbying intended to ensure they vote against the Iran nuclear deal agreed on 14 July.
The junket is an annual affair organised by AIPAC, the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee, and very few freshman turn it down. More than sixty out of a total of 70 are expected to go this year, flying business class and staying at five star hotels. AIPAC’s aim is that at least 80% of any Congress has been on one of its trips to Israel at least once. It is an unparalleled example, among the world’s democracies, of one country’s influence on the political system of another. AIPAC did not respond to a request for comment. The junket is an annual affair organised by Aipac, the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee, and very few freshman turn it down. More than sixty out of a total of 70 are expected to go this year, flying business class and staying at five star hotels. Aipac’s aim is that at least 80% of any Congress has been on one of its trips to Israel at least once. It is an unparalleled example, among the world’s democracies, of one country’s influence on the political system of another. Aipac did not respond to a request for comment.
In the past, the AIPAC excursion has served as a primer on the Israeli-Palestinian situation as viewed through the lens of the Israeli government of the day. But in recent years, the itinerary and briefings have focused on Iran, doubtless all the more so this August, as a battle rages over the future of the Comprehensive Joint Plan of Action, as the nuclear deal is called. Congress has until late September to vote on it. The Republican majority in both houses will reject it, but the question is: will it be able to peel off enough Democrats to override a presidential veto. In the past, the Aipac excursion has served as a primer on the Israeli-Palestinian situation as viewed through the lens of the Israeli government of the day. But in recent years, the itinerary and briefings have focused on Iran, doubtless all the more so this August, as a battle rages over the future of the Comprehensive Joint Plan of Action, as the nuclear deal is called. Congress has until late September to vote on it. The Republican majority in both houses will reject it, but the question is: will it be able to peel off enough Democrats to override a presidential veto.
The journalistic shorthand for AIPAC used to be “the Jewish-American lobby” but that is less and less accurate, particularly over the Iranian nuclear deal. Polls suggest a solid majority of American Jews support Obama and his administration’s diplomacy. A survey commissioned by the LA Jewish Journal, found the spread was 48%-28% in favour of the deal. But AIPAC is fervently against it. The journalistic shorthand for Aipac used to be “the Jewish-American lobby” but that is less and less accurate, particularly over the Iranian nuclear deal. Polls suggest a solid majority of American Jews support Obama and his administration’s diplomacy. A survey commissioned by the LA Jewish Journal, found the spread was 48% to 28% in favour of the deal. But Aipac is fervently against it.
Peter Beinart, a US political commentator for Haaretz says the divergence is explained by the fact that AIPAC’s politics are controlled by a few wealthy donors rather than American Jews in general. He wrote: “The principle that structures organized American Jewish life is not democracy. It is plutocracy.”Peter Beinart, a US political commentator for Haaretz says the divergence is explained by the fact that AIPAC’s politics are controlled by a few wealthy donors rather than American Jews in general. He wrote: “The principle that structures organized American Jewish life is not democracy. It is plutocracy.”
Not only does AIPAC not represent mainstream American Jewish opinion, it also presents quite a narrow window into Israeli opinion, faithfully echoing the hawkish line of Binyamin Netanyahu’s government. According to sources familiar with planning for the trip, it has resisted appeals to include briefings from former members of the Israeli security establishment who are supportive of the deal. Not only does Aipac not represent mainstream American Jewish opinion, it also presents quite a narrow window into Israeli opinion, faithfully echoing the hawkish line of Binyamin Netanyahu’s government. According to sources familiar with planning for the trip, it has resisted appeals to include briefings from former members of the Israeli security establishment who are supportive of the deal.
The organisation is so controlling of its message that it tried to restrict contact between senior members of the US administration and its members. When the White House chief of staff Denis McDonough, the Under Secretary of State, Wendy Sherman, who played a leading role in negotiating the deal, and Adam Szubin, a Treasury undersecretary, asked to speak to an AIPAC conference, the organisers gave them a slot at 8am on Thursday morning. The officials were allowed to give short speeches but were forbidden from taking questions, according to a source familiar with the event. The organisation is so controlling of its message that it tried to restrict contact between senior members of the US administration and its members. When the White House chief of staff Denis McDonough, the undersecretary of state, Wendy Sherman, who played a leading role in negotiating the deal, and Adam Szubin, a Treasury undersecretary, asked to speak to an Aipac conference, the organisers gave them a slot at 8am on Thursday. The officials were allowed to give short speeches but were forbidden from taking questions, according to a source familiar with the event.
AIPAC expects to spend some $40 million on an ad campaign in about 40 states, focusing on vulnerable Democrats, turning up the pressure on them in their home states over the summer recess. Its liberal, pro-deal counterpart, J Street, can only hope to spend up to $5 million. Aipac expects to spend some $40m on an ad campaign in about 40 states, focusing on vulnerable Democrats, turning up the pressure on them in their home states over the summer recess. Its liberal, pro-deal counterpart, J Street, can only hope to spend up to $5m.
The imbalance becomes even more skewed once Sheldon Adelson, a multibillionaire casino tycoon, major Republican donor and hardliner on all matters Israeli, pours his considerable funds into the fight. According to some unconfirmed accounts he is ready to spend over $100 million on the campaign, about as much as he spent unsuccessfully trying to get a Republican elected president in 2012. He has split with AIPAC and now channels his money through the even harder-line Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC). The imbalance becomes even more skewed once Sheldon Adelson, a multibillionaire casino tycoon, major Republican donor and hardliner on all matters Israeli, pours his considerable funds into the fight. According to some unconfirmed accounts he is ready to spend over $100m on the campaign, about as much as he spent unsuccessfully trying to get a Republican elected president in 2012. He has split with Aipac and now channels his money through the even harder-line Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC).
“The battle over the Iran deal is increasingly becoming one pitting the public against billionaire donors. One side has the masses, the other the money,” said Trita Parsi, the president of the National Iranian American Council.“The battle over the Iran deal is increasingly becoming one pitting the public against billionaire donors. One side has the masses, the other the money,” said Trita Parsi, the president of the National Iranian American Council.
The White House, increasingly worried, is seeking to mobilise grassroots support over August. Obama held a conference call on Thursday with NGO’s and activists who back the CPOA. According to Parsi, who took part in the call, the president told them: “You guys have to be more active, loud and involved and start making your voices heard with Congress.”The White House, increasingly worried, is seeking to mobilise grassroots support over August. Obama held a conference call on Thursday with NGO’s and activists who back the CPOA. According to Parsi, who took part in the call, the president told them: “You guys have to be more active, loud and involved and start making your voices heard with Congress.”
Jessica Rosenblum, J Street’s director of communications said: “They have money on their side, but we have the actual weight of American Jewish opinion on ours. AIPAC and RJC’s strategy is to sink a lot of dollars into making a lot of noise in order to try and compensate for the fact that, when it comes to where American Jews stand on this deal, the numbers are working against them.”Jessica Rosenblum, J Street’s director of communications said: “They have money on their side, but we have the actual weight of American Jewish opinion on ours. AIPAC and RJC’s strategy is to sink a lot of dollars into making a lot of noise in order to try and compensate for the fact that, when it comes to where American Jews stand on this deal, the numbers are working against them.”