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Canada's Liberals face bleak future – is it too late for Justin Trudeau to save them? Canada's Liberals face bleak future – is it too late for Justin Trudeau to save them?
(about 1 hour later)
Justin Trudeau was a popular but untested politician when he stepped into the ring to meet a tough-looking brawler from the Conservative party of Canada. Tory pundits jeered that the pretty boy, the effete “Dauphin” of Canadian politics, was about to get his famous hair badly mussed.Justin Trudeau was a popular but untested politician when he stepped into the ring to meet a tough-looking brawler from the Conservative party of Canada. Tory pundits jeered that the pretty boy, the effete “Dauphin” of Canadian politics, was about to get his famous hair badly mussed.
What happened at the charity boxing tournament three years ago surprised everybody. The over-aggressive brawler – recently appointed Conservative senator Patrick Brazeau – quickly wore himself out, allowing the slender Trudeau to move in and pick him apart with impressive finesse. The bout ended with Brazeau reeling from a technical knockout in the second round.What happened at the charity boxing tournament three years ago surprised everybody. The over-aggressive brawler – recently appointed Conservative senator Patrick Brazeau – quickly wore himself out, allowing the slender Trudeau to move in and pick him apart with impressive finesse. The bout ended with Brazeau reeling from a technical knockout in the second round.
That victory marked a high point in the ascendance of Trudeau, eldest son of the illustrious Liberal prime minister Pierre Trudeau, and the beginning of the ruling Conservative government’s long slide into disfavour, epitomized by a Senate scandal that has brought Brazeau to trial on multiple charges of assault, sexual assault, fraud and drug possession. That victory marked a high point in the ascendance of Trudeau, eldest son of the illustrious Liberal prime minister Pierre Trudeau, and the beginning of the ruling Conservative government’s long slide into disfavour, epitomised by a Senate scandal that has brought Brazeau to trial on multiple charges of assault, sexual assault, fraud and drug possession.
But as Canada prepares for an imminent fall election, the problem for the Liberal leader is that he also has since slid almost as far as his most disgraced opponents.But as Canada prepares for an imminent fall election, the problem for the Liberal leader is that he also has since slid almost as far as his most disgraced opponents.
Once dominating opinion polls with his fresh face and promise to practice “positive politics”, Trudeau is now running third in the race to replace embattled Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper. Once dominating opinion polls with his fresh face and promise to practise “positive politics”, Trudeau is now running third in the race to replace the embattled Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper.
As the young Liberal leader struggles to overcome a string of minor gaffes and Tory attacks claiming he is “just not ready” to be prime minister, progressive Canadians are increasingly turning to New Democratic party leader Thomas Mulcair to slay the still-formidable Tory dragon. As the young Liberal leader struggles to overcome a string of minor gaffes and Tory attacks claiming he is “just not ready” to be prime minister, progressive Canadians are increasingly turning to the New Democratic party leader, Thomas Mulcair, to slay the still-formidable Tory dragon.
At stake is not merely the young leader’s political career, experts now say, but the very survival of Canada’s “natural governing party” itself, doomed to be stranded at the empty centre of a steadily polarizing political spectrum. At stake is not merely the young leader’s political career, experts now say, but the very survival of Canada’s “natural governing party” itself, doomed to be stranded at the empty centre of a steadily polarising political spectrum.
“I’m not particularly worried about it,” Trudeau told the Guardian this week in an interview from his Ottawa office, adopting the brave face that has become practiced as his popularity slides. “I’m not particularly worried about it,” Trudeau told the Guardian this week in an interview from his Ottawa office, adopting the brave face that has become practised as his popularity slides.
“If there’s one thing that recent history in Canada has shown it’s that campaigns really matter,” he added. “And there’s a tremendous volatility among voters who are just looking for the right alternative.”“If there’s one thing that recent history in Canada has shown it’s that campaigns really matter,” he added. “And there’s a tremendous volatility among voters who are just looking for the right alternative.”
Trudeau could also add that he is still on track to capture more than a quarter of the votes cast, a significant improvement over the 19% share won by the Liberals four years ago under the disastrous leadership of writer Michael Ignatieff. And as he showed in his bout with Brazeau, the apparently overmatched Dauphin can be an effective counter-puncher.Trudeau could also add that he is still on track to capture more than a quarter of the votes cast, a significant improvement over the 19% share won by the Liberals four years ago under the disastrous leadership of writer Michael Ignatieff. And as he showed in his bout with Brazeau, the apparently overmatched Dauphin can be an effective counter-puncher.
“I’m raring to go,” he says. “I look forward to the campaign starting so people can really start digging into the various contrasting options.”“I’m raring to go,” he says. “I look forward to the campaign starting so people can really start digging into the various contrasting options.”
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But even that job will prove problematic for the Liberals, who are already struggling to differentiate their platform from that of the rising New Democrats, a formerly leftwing party successfully moved to the centre under Mulcair and the late Jack Layton.But even that job will prove problematic for the Liberals, who are already struggling to differentiate their platform from that of the rising New Democrats, a formerly leftwing party successfully moved to the centre under Mulcair and the late Jack Layton.
The parties are broadly aligned on the need for increases in taxes and social spending to counter a decade of Tory cuts, and the effort to differentiate them has led the Liberal leader onto some novel terrain. On tax policy, he chides Mulcair for wanting to raise corporate taxes while refusing “to do what we want to do, which is to raise personal taxes on the wealthiest 1% of Canadians”. The parties are broadly aligned on the need for increases in taxes and social spending to counter a decade of Tory cuts, and the effort to differentiate them has led the Liberal leader on to some novel terrain. On tax policy, he chides Mulcair for wanting to raise corporate taxes while refusing “to do what we want to do, which is to raise personal taxes on the wealthiest 1% of Canadians”.
At the same time, the Trudeau Liberals tacked right by supporting the government’s sweeping anti-terrorism act, Bill C-51, while promising to repeal its excesses if elected. The NDP’s risky decision to oppose the law in the immediate aftermath of two successful terrorist attacks was ultimately rewarded when public opinion swung massively against it.At the same time, the Trudeau Liberals tacked right by supporting the government’s sweeping anti-terrorism act, Bill C-51, while promising to repeal its excesses if elected. The NDP’s risky decision to oppose the law in the immediate aftermath of two successful terrorist attacks was ultimately rewarded when public opinion swung massively against it.
But what others see as inexpert opportunism, Trudeau defends on grounds of principle. “Mr Harper doesn’t think we need to do anything to protect our rights and freedoms, and Mr Mulcair doesn’t think we have to do more about security,” he said. “Quite frankly, I think both positions are irresponsible.”But what others see as inexpert opportunism, Trudeau defends on grounds of principle. “Mr Harper doesn’t think we need to do anything to protect our rights and freedoms, and Mr Mulcair doesn’t think we have to do more about security,” he said. “Quite frankly, I think both positions are irresponsible.”
Trudeau’s search for a disappearing middle ground met disaster earlier this week when Toronto Liberals rejected Eve Adams – a Tory turncoat the leader had hoped to nominate as one of his own candidates. Anonymous complaints from fellow Liberals about his leadership are becoming a regular feature in Canadian media.Trudeau’s search for a disappearing middle ground met disaster earlier this week when Toronto Liberals rejected Eve Adams – a Tory turncoat the leader had hoped to nominate as one of his own candidates. Anonymous complaints from fellow Liberals about his leadership are becoming a regular feature in Canadian media.
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So far, the definitive distinction between the two opposition leaders is Trudeau’s refusal to consider joining a coalition government to ensure a Conservative defeat in the event of a hung parliament, as current polls suggest is likely. While both parties agree that ousting Harper is the top priority of most Canadians, only the NDP’s Mulcair has confirmed his willingness to do so by all means possible.So far, the definitive distinction between the two opposition leaders is Trudeau’s refusal to consider joining a coalition government to ensure a Conservative defeat in the event of a hung parliament, as current polls suggest is likely. While both parties agree that ousting Harper is the top priority of most Canadians, only the NDP’s Mulcair has confirmed his willingness to do so by all means possible.
“I just know that Canadians need a strong and clear vision for how to grow the economy,” Trudeau counters, “and that doesn’t happen by cobbling together an unwieldy coalition that’s focused on the negative – that is, getting rid of the party in power right now rather than replacing them with a coherent and responsible vision.”“I just know that Canadians need a strong and clear vision for how to grow the economy,” Trudeau counters, “and that doesn’t happen by cobbling together an unwieldy coalition that’s focused on the negative – that is, getting rid of the party in power right now rather than replacing them with a coherent and responsible vision.”
But that appeal is so far failing to excite progressive voters, who are turning to Mulcair in part out of frustration with the prospect of once again splitting their votes between the two similar parties, a phenomenon that allowed Harper to form a solid majority government with less than 40% of popular support in 2011.But that appeal is so far failing to excite progressive voters, who are turning to Mulcair in part out of frustration with the prospect of once again splitting their votes between the two similar parties, a phenomenon that allowed Harper to form a solid majority government with less than 40% of popular support in 2011.
“Every time a Tory gets a bleeding nose, the Liberals and the New Democrats turn around and punch each other in the face,” complained popular Liberal MP Adam Vaughan, who is currently fighting against a prominent NDP candidate, Layton’s widow Olivia Chow, for his central Toronto seat – one in which the Conservatives never win more than a handful of votes. “We’ve been fighting for the same group of voters for so long it’s become personal,” Vaughan added. “It’s absurd.”“Every time a Tory gets a bleeding nose, the Liberals and the New Democrats turn around and punch each other in the face,” complained popular Liberal MP Adam Vaughan, who is currently fighting against a prominent NDP candidate, Layton’s widow Olivia Chow, for his central Toronto seat – one in which the Conservatives never win more than a handful of votes. “We’ve been fighting for the same group of voters for so long it’s become personal,” Vaughan added. “It’s absurd.”
But as he and others are discovering, the middle ground is no longer the reliably fertile field it once was in Canadian politics. Even without the juvenile gaffes that have provided such effective ammunition to Tory attackers, the Liberal leader and his party are probably doomed, according to University of British Columbia political scientist Richard Johnston.But as he and others are discovering, the middle ground is no longer the reliably fertile field it once was in Canadian politics. Even without the juvenile gaffes that have provided such effective ammunition to Tory attackers, the Liberal leader and his party are probably doomed, according to University of British Columbia political scientist Richard Johnston.
“They have been living on borrowed time for quite a while now,” Johnston says. Failing to win the seats they still hold in vote-rich Ontario, as seems increasingly likely, “really will finish the Liberal party”, he adds.“They have been living on borrowed time for quite a while now,” Johnston says. Failing to win the seats they still hold in vote-rich Ontario, as seems increasingly likely, “really will finish the Liberal party”, he adds.
Despite the gloomy forecasts, the sun is still shining outside the window of Justin Trudeau’s Ottawa office. He remains as fresh and confident as the man who, only a year earlier, was most favoured to lead the nation.Despite the gloomy forecasts, the sun is still shining outside the window of Justin Trudeau’s Ottawa office. He remains as fresh and confident as the man who, only a year earlier, was most favoured to lead the nation.
“I don’t much worry about what the pundits or the people who are handicapping the race are saying at any given moment,” he says. “I’m confident that Canadians are looking for someone who has a serious plan, who’s not taking them for granted, and who’s out there working hardest to earn the opportunity to serve them.”“I don’t much worry about what the pundits or the people who are handicapping the race are saying at any given moment,” he says. “I’m confident that Canadians are looking for someone who has a serious plan, who’s not taking them for granted, and who’s out there working hardest to earn the opportunity to serve them.”