Does Merkel retain a stranglehold on power?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33694773

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Angela Merkel is taking a break. After one of the toughest months of her chancellorship, Mrs Merkel chose to unwind - by watching a five-hour performance of the Wagnerian opera Tristan and Isolde.

The German chancellor's summer holiday routine rarely alters.

She is an avid opera fan, so it is usually a trip to the Bayreuth Wagner festival followed by a stay in South Tyrol.

What is different this year is the political storm from which she has emerged in Berlin and the speculation still rife in Germany about her future.

It has been a bruising few months. Largely due to the drama of the Greek debt crisis, whose twists and turns could have come straight from one of the operas Mrs Merkel so enjoys.

There was open rebellion from 60 of her own conservative MPs, who refused to back a third bailout for Greece.

But she was also criticised by those who felt, conversely, her stance on Greece had been too harsh.

By refusing to countenance debt relief and allowing her Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, to threaten Alexis Tsipras's government with a Greek exit from the eurozone, she went too far, they say.

Then, during a televised question-and-answer session, Mrs Merkel was confronted by a crying young refugee.

Mrs Merkel's awkward attempt at comforting the teenager went viral.

"Merkel makes refugee cry," read one headline.

Decisions pending

Commentators wonder whether Mrs Merkel's moment has passed.

The chancellor is known to enjoy her job.

But it is tempting to wonder whether, in the darkness of the Bayreuth auditorium, she also contemplated her own future.

There are, after all, decisions to be made.

She has been chancellor for 10 years and must choose whether to lead her conservatives into the next general election in 2017.

Because, despite those rebellious conservatives, she is unlikely to be pushed out.

There are few obvious challengers.

Her Defence Minister, Ursula von der Leyen, was once widely tipped as a successor, but she is struggling with the poisoned chalice that is her portfolio.

The leader of her coalition partners, Sigmar Gabriel, is a popular figure.

Even so - one of his social democrats said recently - there was little point in putting up a candidate from the party trailing in the polls.

"It's difficult to win against Merkel," said Torsten Albig.

Others speculate about her finance minister. Mrs Merkel is said to have a complicated relationship with Mr Schaeuble - she helped to thwart his chance of becoming chancellor a decade ago.

His hawkish policy on Greece went down well domestically.

Arguably, it suited Mrs Merkel to have him play bad cop during negotiations, but the finance minister made it very clear he wields real power, threatening publicly to resign rather than act against his principles.

There is, however, no evidence Mr Schaeuble - who is in his 70s - is planning a coup.

Public popularity

And he would be fighting a chancellor whose approval ratings have remained consistently high.

Dr Peter Matuschek, who runs a German polling organisation, said the Greek crisis had not damaged her significantly.

If anything, Germans were rather proud of her. "She is seen as a crisis manager," he said.

Her focus on compromise is admired in Germany, where the political system values consensus.

Even so, at times it can get her into trouble; she was recently accused of turning a blind eye to human rights abuses by the Egyptian government in order to foster bilateral trade.

But Germany also admires her ability to broker a deal.

That reputation (think late-night talks over Ukraine or the recent G7 commitment to phase out greenhouse gas emissions) plus Germany's economic might has made her one of the world's most powerful politicians.

And one of its busiest - the Greek crisis, after all, is not yet fully resolved.

There is also Ukraine, and the possibility of the UK leaving the EU.

Angela Merkel

Immigration issue

And then there is what is likely to be the next major challenge of her chancellorship.

Already, in her absence, German politicians are squabbling over how to deal with rising immigration.

As Europe's refugee crisis continues, up to 450,000 people are expected to claim asylum in Germany this year - more than in any other European country.

There are complaints about dwindling resources, and attacks on homes for asylum seekers.

Mrs Merkel must soothe domestic fears but seek to achieve a sustainable European solution too.

During a break in that production of Tristan and Isolde, a chair suddenly collapsed under Mrs Merkel.

A subsequent cartoon, entitled Merkel's stuhl (stool), depicted a plush-looking chair - balancing on a single leg.

It begs the question - can the German chancellor regain the political support she will need to get through what promises to be a stormy autumn?