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| Why Jeremy Corbyn seems like the real deal | Why Jeremy Corbyn seems like the real deal |
| (about 20 hours later) | |
| We are perhaps getting used to political phenomena that defy expectations and demand we re-examine the world afresh: the SNP’s rapid rise that seemed to so many to come out of nowhere; the surprise election result that so few predicted. But the latest shock to flout the rules – Jeremy Corbyn, the far-left candidate in Labour’s leadership election, is now the one to beat – is perhaps the greatest yet. | We are perhaps getting used to political phenomena that defy expectations and demand we re-examine the world afresh: the SNP’s rapid rise that seemed to so many to come out of nowhere; the surprise election result that so few predicted. But the latest shock to flout the rules – Jeremy Corbyn, the far-left candidate in Labour’s leadership election, is now the one to beat – is perhaps the greatest yet. |
| Superficially, Labour looks like a party rehashing a debate it had in the 1980s: to be a party of pure socialist principle or a party of government? But on a closer look, there is an odder dynamic at play: Corbyn is gaining ground as the other three candidates compete to be the moderate of choice, while failing to address head on Corbyn’s challenge or even to understand the forces driving it. | Superficially, Labour looks like a party rehashing a debate it had in the 1980s: to be a party of pure socialist principle or a party of government? But on a closer look, there is an odder dynamic at play: Corbyn is gaining ground as the other three candidates compete to be the moderate of choice, while failing to address head on Corbyn’s challenge or even to understand the forces driving it. |
| If one of the other candidates triumphs, the temptation might be to forget the Corbyn-mania of 2015, writing it off as the sign of a party membership far to the left of the country at large. But this would be wrong. | If one of the other candidates triumphs, the temptation might be to forget the Corbyn-mania of 2015, writing it off as the sign of a party membership far to the left of the country at large. But this would be wrong. |
| The lasting legacy of the financial crisis on Britain’s electoral landscape was not to shift our political centre of gravity to the left, but to shake the faith of voters in the capacity of mainstream politics to provide solutions. “You’re all the same” is a common refrain heard on the doorstep. It was this cynicism that created fertile territory for the SNP and Ukip: both Nicola Sturgeon and Nigel Farage have successfully positioned themselves against a remote Westminster elite. | The lasting legacy of the financial crisis on Britain’s electoral landscape was not to shift our political centre of gravity to the left, but to shake the faith of voters in the capacity of mainstream politics to provide solutions. “You’re all the same” is a common refrain heard on the doorstep. It was this cynicism that created fertile territory for the SNP and Ukip: both Nicola Sturgeon and Nigel Farage have successfully positioned themselves against a remote Westminster elite. |
| Are there echoes of Labour’s Ukip and SNP problem in the levels of support Corbyn is attracting? A chunk of it has come from the influx of new members who have joined the party since its election defeat, some of whom are disgruntled former members, but many of whom are young people signing up to a political party for the first time. | Are there echoes of Labour’s Ukip and SNP problem in the levels of support Corbyn is attracting? A chunk of it has come from the influx of new members who have joined the party since its election defeat, some of whom are disgruntled former members, but many of whom are young people signing up to a political party for the first time. |
| Farage and Corbyn may hail from opposite ends of the political spectrum, but they have two things in common | Farage and Corbyn may hail from opposite ends of the political spectrum, but they have two things in common |
| This growth in young members is remarkable in light of generational voting trends. In 2015, those aged 18-24 were almost half as likely to vote as those aged over 65. And young people are much less likely to feel attached to a particular party: by 2024, Ipsos Mori has predicted that fewer than one in four of the electorate will be attached to a political party, compared to half in 1983. | This growth in young members is remarkable in light of generational voting trends. In 2015, those aged 18-24 were almost half as likely to vote as those aged over 65. And young people are much less likely to feel attached to a particular party: by 2024, Ipsos Mori has predicted that fewer than one in four of the electorate will be attached to a political party, compared to half in 1983. |
| This reflects the fact that too many young people don’t see mainstream political debate as relevant to their lives. Little wonder: spiralling house prices have taken home ownership out of the reach of many and it’s their pay – and prospects – that the recession has hit most sharply. Neither party had much to say to the young graduate only able to find bar work on a zero-hours contract in the run-up to the election. While they both committed to house-building targets, experts were sceptical either had the policies or will to match their ambition. | This reflects the fact that too many young people don’t see mainstream political debate as relevant to their lives. Little wonder: spiralling house prices have taken home ownership out of the reach of many and it’s their pay – and prospects – that the recession has hit most sharply. Neither party had much to say to the young graduate only able to find bar work on a zero-hours contract in the run-up to the election. While they both committed to house-building targets, experts were sceptical either had the policies or will to match their ambition. |
| Farage and Corbyn may hail from opposite ends of the political spectrum, but they have two things in common. Both share an easy authenticity: they are seen to say what they think. But neither has relevant and modern solutions – whether it’s closing Britain’s borders in an increasingly globalised world; advocating nuclear disarmament in a world where Isis, not the nation state, is the biggest threat to global security; or advocating the renationalisation of industries in the age of Uber. | Farage and Corbyn may hail from opposite ends of the political spectrum, but they have two things in common. Both share an easy authenticity: they are seen to say what they think. But neither has relevant and modern solutions – whether it’s closing Britain’s borders in an increasingly globalised world; advocating nuclear disarmament in a world where Isis, not the nation state, is the biggest threat to global security; or advocating the renationalisation of industries in the age of Uber. |
| Labour’s right has a point when it says that the party has no hope of winning in 2020 unless it attracts those who voted Conservative in 2015. But if the electorate continues to fragment, it needs to do even more to remain relevant in 20 or 30 years’ time: it needs to put together a coalition that includes former SNP and Ukip voters, as well as the young people who didn’t vote at all in 2015. | Labour’s right has a point when it says that the party has no hope of winning in 2020 unless it attracts those who voted Conservative in 2015. But if the electorate continues to fragment, it needs to do even more to remain relevant in 20 or 30 years’ time: it needs to put together a coalition that includes former SNP and Ukip voters, as well as the young people who didn’t vote at all in 2015. |
| To have a hope of doing this, a credible challenger to Corbyn must achieve that magical ingredient of authenticity that he seems to exude – much trickier for a government-in-waiting that needs to make tough choices. But one route might be to try to be more honest with the public about difficult trade-offs. For example, improving housing affordability will mean those already on the housing ladder cannot expect house prices to keep steadily rising. No politician has been brave enough to have that debate, but without it, any strategy to improve housing affordability lacks credibility. | To have a hope of doing this, a credible challenger to Corbyn must achieve that magical ingredient of authenticity that he seems to exude – much trickier for a government-in-waiting that needs to make tough choices. But one route might be to try to be more honest with the public about difficult trade-offs. For example, improving housing affordability will mean those already on the housing ladder cannot expect house prices to keep steadily rising. No politician has been brave enough to have that debate, but without it, any strategy to improve housing affordability lacks credibility. |
| Related: The Labour party and the shifting centre ground of politics in the UK | Letters | |
| Second, they need to explain why a Labour government – without spending more – offers better answers than the Conservatives. Take an area such as education: Labour seems stuck in a staid, old-fashioned debate about graduate tax versus tuition fees, academies versus comprehensives. Why not instead be honest with young people that government can no longer afford to pay for higher education, but look at how universities can offer degrees in cheaper and more innovative ways? Why not design a new type of school-to-work transition for young people who don’t go to university, rather than just focusing on expanding poor-quality apprenticeships for which there’s low demand from both young people and employers? | Second, they need to explain why a Labour government – without spending more – offers better answers than the Conservatives. Take an area such as education: Labour seems stuck in a staid, old-fashioned debate about graduate tax versus tuition fees, academies versus comprehensives. Why not instead be honest with young people that government can no longer afford to pay for higher education, but look at how universities can offer degrees in cheaper and more innovative ways? Why not design a new type of school-to-work transition for young people who don’t go to university, rather than just focusing on expanding poor-quality apprenticeships for which there’s low demand from both young people and employers? |
| One of the reasons Corbyn is doing so well is that none of the candidates has yet shown he/she can offer a winning combination of authenticity and answers. Timing has a lot to answer for: it was a terrible decision to open the contest straight after the election. It has resulted in a contest in which Corbyn’s main opponents are former ministers; no matter how brilliant they were in government, it’s difficult to convince the country they’re offering something authentic and new, a challenge neither Blair nor Cameron had to contend with. In a year’s time, the ability of a leadership candidate to get a few thousand people signed up as party supporters in order to vote for them – a tough ask three months after an election defeat – might be seen as a good test of their ability to win millions of new votes at the next election. | One of the reasons Corbyn is doing so well is that none of the candidates has yet shown he/she can offer a winning combination of authenticity and answers. Timing has a lot to answer for: it was a terrible decision to open the contest straight after the election. It has resulted in a contest in which Corbyn’s main opponents are former ministers; no matter how brilliant they were in government, it’s difficult to convince the country they’re offering something authentic and new, a challenge neither Blair nor Cameron had to contend with. In a year’s time, the ability of a leadership candidate to get a few thousand people signed up as party supporters in order to vote for them – a tough ask three months after an election defeat – might be seen as a good test of their ability to win millions of new votes at the next election. |
| Beating Jeremy Corbyn in a leadership contest may be a very different type of test to winning a general election. But given the rate at which Britain’s electoral landscape is shifting, it is not an irrelevant one and it is proving worryingly challenging to the mainstream candidates. | Beating Jeremy Corbyn in a leadership contest may be a very different type of test to winning a general election. But given the rate at which Britain’s electoral landscape is shifting, it is not an irrelevant one and it is proving worryingly challenging to the mainstream candidates. |
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