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| Canada election 2015: a guide to the parties, polls and electoral system | Canada election 2015: a guide to the parties, polls and electoral system |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| Related: Canada heads to the polls in closest election in country's history – live | |
| Canada heads to the polls on Monday 19 October to elect members to the 42nd Canadian parliament. | Canada heads to the polls on Monday 19 October to elect members to the 42nd Canadian parliament. |
| At 78 days, it will be the longest campaign since 1872. Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper will attempt to become the first prime minister since 1908 to win four consecutive elections. | At 78 days, it will be the longest campaign since 1872. Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper will attempt to become the first prime minister since 1908 to win four consecutive elections. |
| The voting system | The voting system |
| The next Canadian parliament will be composed of 338 seats (expanded from the current 308) following the results of the latest census. The number of districts is reviewed every 10 years. | The next Canadian parliament will be composed of 338 seats (expanded from the current 308) following the results of the latest census. The number of districts is reviewed every 10 years. |
| Members of parliament are elected through a first-past-the-post system – the candidate that comes first in each electoral district, called a riding, wins that seat. | Members of parliament are elected through a first-past-the-post system – the candidate that comes first in each electoral district, called a riding, wins that seat. |
| The 338 ridings are distributed among Canada’s 10 provinces and three territories according to the country’s population. | The 338 ridings are distributed among Canada’s 10 provinces and three territories according to the country’s population. |
| Canada has elected 11 minority governments in its history, and there have also been two minority administrations after governments were replaced during elections. | Canada has elected 11 minority governments in its history, and there have also been two minority administrations after governments were replaced during elections. |
| Turnout has dropped to below 70% in more recent votes. | Turnout has dropped to below 70% in more recent votes. |
| Canada’s parliament has an upper and a lower house. Although legislation needs to pass through both houses, and can originate in both houses, the House of Commons is by far the dominant chamber. The Senate rarely rejects bills, and the government only needs to retain the confidence of the lower house. | Canada’s parliament has an upper and a lower house. Although legislation needs to pass through both houses, and can originate in both houses, the House of Commons is by far the dominant chamber. The Senate rarely rejects bills, and the government only needs to retain the confidence of the lower house. |
| The Senate consists of 105 members appointed by the governor general on the advice of the prime minister. Senate seats are assigned on a regional basis. | The Senate consists of 105 members appointed by the governor general on the advice of the prime minister. Senate seats are assigned on a regional basis. |
| The political parties | The political parties |
| Conservative Party of Canada: Centre-right party led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper has led the Canadian government since 2006. | Conservative Party of Canada: Centre-right party led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper has led the Canadian government since 2006. |
| Liberal Party of Canada: Centre-left party led by Justin Trudeau, son of former prime minister Pierre. The Liberals became known as Canada’s “natural governing party”, holding power for nearly 70 years in the 20th century, more than any other party in a developed and democratic country. | Liberal Party of Canada: Centre-left party led by Justin Trudeau, son of former prime minister Pierre. The Liberals became known as Canada’s “natural governing party”, holding power for nearly 70 years in the 20th century, more than any other party in a developed and democratic country. |
| However, support for the party has declined over the past decade. Its result in the previous election in 2011 was its worst ever – and the first time the Liberals came in third. | However, support for the party has declined over the past decade. Its result in the previous election in 2011 was its worst ever – and the first time the Liberals came in third. |
| The Conservatives (under the party’s different historic guises and names) and the Liberals have dominated Canadian politics and are the only two parties to have formed a government. | The Conservatives (under the party’s different historic guises and names) and the Liberals have dominated Canadian politics and are the only two parties to have formed a government. |
| New Democratic Party (NDP): A social-democratic party to the left of the Liberals. Its leader is Thomas Mulcair. The party was founded in 1961, and in the 2011 election it became the official opposition for the first time in its history. | New Democratic Party (NDP): A social-democratic party to the left of the Liberals. Its leader is Thomas Mulcair. The party was founded in 1961, and in the 2011 election it became the official opposition for the first time in its history. |
| Earlier this year the NDP won a surprise majority in Alberta and the party has surged in federal polls since. | Earlier this year the NDP won a surprise majority in Alberta and the party has surged in federal polls since. |
| Bloc Québécois: A party focused on promoting Quebec’s interests and sovereignty in the Commons. In the Quebec election of 2014, its provincial equivalent, the Parti Québécois, suffered its worst ever defeat after the party, which was in government at the time, called a snap election on the back of strong polls that projected a possible majority. Instead, the Liberals won a majority and Premier Pauline Marois lost her own riding. | Bloc Québécois: A party focused on promoting Quebec’s interests and sovereignty in the Commons. In the Quebec election of 2014, its provincial equivalent, the Parti Québécois, suffered its worst ever defeat after the party, which was in government at the time, called a snap election on the back of strong polls that projected a possible majority. Instead, the Liberals won a majority and Premier Pauline Marois lost her own riding. |
| The Green Party: Led by Elizabeth May, who in 2011 became the first elected Green MP in the party’s history. | The Green Party: Led by Elizabeth May, who in 2011 became the first elected Green MP in the party’s history. |
| Strength in Democracy: A new party founded in 2014. It currently has two MPs following defections from the Bloc and from an NDP member (also from Quebec). | Strength in Democracy: A new party founded in 2014. It currently has two MPs following defections from the Bloc and from an NDP member (also from Quebec). |
| The 2011 result | The 2011 result |
| In May 2011, the Conservatives won an outright majority following two minority administrations (in 2006 and 2008). | In May 2011, the Conservatives won an outright majority following two minority administrations (in 2006 and 2008). |
| According to Inter-Parliamentary Union data, only 25% of Canada’s MPs are women – which is higher than the proportion in the US (20%). | According to Inter-Parliamentary Union data, only 25% of Canada’s MPs are women – which is higher than the proportion in the US (20%). |
| Turnout was 61.1%. The full 2011 results can be found here. | Turnout was 61.1%. The full 2011 results can be found here. |
| What do the the polls say?* | What do the the polls say?* |
| Support for the Conservatives has flatlined in the final weeks of the campaign, while the NDP has dropped substantially and Mulcair’s party has gone from frontrunner to lagging in third place. | Support for the Conservatives has flatlined in the final weeks of the campaign, while the NDP has dropped substantially and Mulcair’s party has gone from frontrunner to lagging in third place. |
| Meanwhile, the Liberals have taken a small lead on the back of Trudeau’s strong debate performances. | Meanwhile, the Liberals have taken a small lead on the back of Trudeau’s strong debate performances. |
| However, because of Canada’s voting system, it’s all about the contest in each individual riding. | However, because of Canada’s voting system, it’s all about the contest in each individual riding. |
| And with the risk of the vote on the left splitting, this could favour the Tories. | And with the risk of the vote on the left splitting, this could favour the Tories. |
| A minority Liberal government appears to be the most likely outcome - if the polls are right. | A minority Liberal government appears to be the most likely outcome - if the polls are right. |
| A note of caution – the polling looks quite similar to May’s UK election, which saw surveys expecting a neck-and-neck race between the Conservatives and the Labour party. In the event, the Tories won a small majority. | A note of caution – the polling looks quite similar to May’s UK election, which saw surveys expecting a neck-and-neck race between the Conservatives and the Labour party. In the event, the Tories won a small majority. |
| The UK, in fact, has a similar voting system to Canada’s. | The UK, in fact, has a similar voting system to Canada’s. |
| On election day, polls are open for 12 hours across the country. The voting hours are staggered across the country’s different time zones so that the majority of results are available at approximately the same time on election night. | On election day, polls are open for 12 hours across the country. The voting hours are staggered across the country’s different time zones so that the majority of results are available at approximately the same time on election night. |
| Polls in the eastern provinces close at 9.30pm. | Polls in the eastern provinces close at 9.30pm. |
| *Polls will be updated throughout the campaign. | *Polls will be updated throughout the campaign. |
| Update: this article was amended on 3 August to make clearer the distinction between the federal Bloc Québécois and the provincial entity, the Parti Québécois. | Update: this article was amended on 3 August to make clearer the distinction between the federal Bloc Québécois and the provincial entity, the Parti Québécois. |