Weatherwatch: Melting polar ice brings promise of prosperity

http://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/aug/03/global-warming-climate-change-arctic-ice-trade-routes

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Scientists are still attempting to gauge what possible effects the melting of the Arctic ice sheet will have on the British weather. For example, is the Gulf Stream going to slow down sufficiently to give us colder winters and are we already getting more storms during the summer because the jet stream has moved?

So, it is a surprise to see a confident prediction of one potential effect. According to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, the lack of polar ice is going to make us wealthier.

This is because the opening of the sea route along the northern coast of Russia will bring us much closer to east Asia and boost trade accordingly.

The only uncertainty is how soon the icecap will disappear completely in summer but the study concludes that, by 2030, the northern route will be open all year – although it could be sooner because the ice seems to disappearing faster than scientific predictions.

Switching trade routes so container ships travel across the Arctic Ocean rather than through the Suez canal will burn less fossil fuel by reducing the shipping distance from northern Europe to Japan by roughly 37% and to China by about 23%. Egypt will suffer as fewer ships pay to enter the canal but trade between east Asia and the northern countries of the European Union will boom. Southern Europe will gain no advantage because distances will remain roughly the same.

The researchers calculate that climate change in the Arctic will alter the pattern of global business, with 15% of China’s international trade utilising the northern sea route by 2030.