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| 17 Republicans want to be president. Only 10 will debate. Why run at all? | 17 Republicans want to be president. Only 10 will debate. Why run at all? |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Eleven Republicans squeezed onto a tiny debate stage in New Hampshire on Monday night, with three senators joining via telecast from Washington DC, to participate in a candidates forum meant to give “low-tier” contenders an opportunity to stand out in an expanding army of presidential hopefuls. It is a field that begins with a confrontational real estate baron leading the polls, Donald Trump, and extends to a 17th candidate, former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, who declared too late to participate in New Hampshire’s Voters First forum and will almost certainly be excluded from the Fox News debate on Thursday. | Eleven Republicans squeezed onto a tiny debate stage in New Hampshire on Monday night, with three senators joining via telecast from Washington DC, to participate in a candidates forum meant to give “low-tier” contenders an opportunity to stand out in an expanding army of presidential hopefuls. It is a field that begins with a confrontational real estate baron leading the polls, Donald Trump, and extends to a 17th candidate, former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, who declared too late to participate in New Hampshire’s Voters First forum and will almost certainly be excluded from the Fox News debate on Thursday. |
| Related: Republican candidates' forum hears policy pitches in Trump-free zone | Related: Republican candidates' forum hears policy pitches in Trump-free zone |
| Here was an exercise in democracy that left Lindsey Graham, a 10-year senator with no shortage of television experience, fighting for airtime on the government network C-Span by dropping the name Monica Lewinsky. And there was Ohio’s John Kasich, the sitting governor of a state that has swung for every US president since 1964, having to defend his entry into a teeming field, a full 476 days before election day. | Here was an exercise in democracy that left Lindsey Graham, a 10-year senator with no shortage of television experience, fighting for airtime on the government network C-Span by dropping the name Monica Lewinsky. And there was Ohio’s John Kasich, the sitting governor of a state that has swung for every US president since 1964, having to defend his entry into a teeming field, a full 476 days before election day. |
| They looked more like spelling bee contestants than some of the most powerful politicians on Earth. | They looked more like spelling bee contestants than some of the most powerful politicians on Earth. |
| On Tuesday night, Fox News will select the 10 candidates with the highest poll numbers to take the stage in Ohio on Thursday for the first official debate of the elongated race for the White House – weeding out seven declared Republicans. | On Tuesday night, Fox News will select the 10 candidates with the highest poll numbers to take the stage in Ohio on Thursday for the first official debate of the elongated race for the White House – weeding out seven declared Republicans. |
| Who will be on stage for the debate – and who will be relegated to an afternoon runners-up round – is to be decided after Tuesday at 5pm ET, the network’s cutoff time for considering national polls. It is possible Graham may join a pool of exiles from primetime that includes the governors of Texas and Louisiana, as well as the former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and Rick Santorum, who won the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus as a candidate in 2012. | |
| All of which beg the question: with an almost comedically crowded field, why bother running at all? | All of which beg the question: with an almost comedically crowded field, why bother running at all? |
| Related: Republican presidential hopefuls wait to see if they make the cut for TV debate | Related: Republican presidential hopefuls wait to see if they make the cut for TV debate |
| Well, why not? Political analysts and former candidates say the point of a long-shot candidacy is part hope, some ego and maybe more than a little testing of vice-presidential waters. But most campaign watchers agreed that the margins were further away than ever, and that this year’s crop of low-tier candidates represented the realities of a race that is still very much undecided. | |
| “All of the people in this race want to be president,” said Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. | “All of the people in this race want to be president,” said Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. |
| To run for the highest office, he said, a candidate must have some belief that he or she could run the country better than anyone else – even if a back-runner does not necessarily believe a win is possible. | To run for the highest office, he said, a candidate must have some belief that he or she could run the country better than anyone else – even if a back-runner does not necessarily believe a win is possible. |
| “You have to have a little touch of megalomania to run for president,” Skelley said. “You have to have a certain amount of self-belief that you can do the job better than anybody else can. And, at the end of the day, not many people have that.” | “You have to have a little touch of megalomania to run for president,” Skelley said. “You have to have a certain amount of self-belief that you can do the job better than anybody else can. And, at the end of the day, not many people have that.” |
| There are five main reasons darkhorse candidates enter the race for “the holy grail of politics”, says Daniel Franklin, an associate professor of political science at Georgia State University and author of Pitiful Giants: Presidents in Their Final Terms. | There are five main reasons darkhorse candidates enter the race for “the holy grail of politics”, says Daniel Franklin, an associate professor of political science at Georgia State University and author of Pitiful Giants: Presidents in Their Final Terms. |
| Running for the highest office is often used a résumé-builder, parlaying unsuccessful candidacies into cabinet positions, ambassadorships and media jobs. Herman Cain, whose unorthodox bid for the presidency in 2012 rose to Trumpian levels and quickly fizzled amid allegations of sexual misconduct, later landed a contributor position on Fox News. | Running for the highest office is often used a résumé-builder, parlaying unsuccessful candidacies into cabinet positions, ambassadorships and media jobs. Herman Cain, whose unorthodox bid for the presidency in 2012 rose to Trumpian levels and quickly fizzled amid allegations of sexual misconduct, later landed a contributor position on Fox News. |
| An also-ran campaign may also be used to raise chatter around a candidate gunning for a spot on the eventual nominee’s ticket, Franklin said. In 2008, then-US senator Joe Biden captured less than 1% of the Iowa caucus, but his foreign policy chops didn’t go unnoticed. Months later, Barack Obama asked Biden to be his running mate. | An also-ran campaign may also be used to raise chatter around a candidate gunning for a spot on the eventual nominee’s ticket, Franklin said. In 2008, then-US senator Joe Biden captured less than 1% of the Iowa caucus, but his foreign policy chops didn’t go unnoticed. Months later, Barack Obama asked Biden to be his running mate. |
| Related: 2016 presidential candidates quiz: how well do you know the next leader of the free world? | Related: 2016 presidential candidates quiz: how well do you know the next leader of the free world? |
| Some candidates are playing the “long game”, joining the race without a prayer to lay the groundwork to become a top-tier candidate later on. President Ronald Reagan ran twice for president before building the momentum that would catapult him to the White House in 1980. | |
| And then there are the “true believers”, or those who represent the ideological wing of a party, as well as those driven by a particular cause. Businessman Ross Perot, for example, wreaked havoc on Republicans with his independent runs for the presidency – an option Trump himself has not discarded – to force a discussion on the issue of an increasing national debt. | |
| “There’s a certain nobility in the pursuit of justice against all odds,” Franklin said, comparing Don Quixote’s quest to the gauntlet of a grueling campaign. “Though, this does not apply to Donald Trump. He is exactly not the kind of guy Cervantes was talking about.” | “There’s a certain nobility in the pursuit of justice against all odds,” Franklin said, comparing Don Quixote’s quest to the gauntlet of a grueling campaign. “Though, this does not apply to Donald Trump. He is exactly not the kind of guy Cervantes was talking about.” |
| And of course, history has shown that long-shot candidates might just pull it off. Jimmy Carter is often held up as the best example of a contender who started as a relative unknown and went on to unseat incumbent president Gerald Ford in 1976. More recently, Obama, a self-described “skinny kid with a funny name”, surprised politicos with an impressive grassroots campaign that beat the Clinton machine in the primaries, and would lead him to win the presidency in 2008. If it happened before, it could happen again. | |
| “I got in this to win and if I didn’t think I could win I wouldn’t do it,” Ohio governor John Kasich told New Hampshire radio host and moderator of Monday night’s forum, Jack Heath, on Monday. Kasich was the 16th presidential candidate to enter the race, and is on the bubble to qualify for Thursday’s debate. | |
| In addition to being left off-stage, second-tier candidates also have to contend with Trump, who in pitching himself as the ultimate outsider and commandeering the spotlight in the process has made it more difficult for them to break out. | |
| “The decision about who is going to be president of the United States doesn’t belong with a Washington establishment or the news media and certainly not with the [Republican National Committee],” Gilmore, a former RNC chairman, told CNN on Sunday. “Every candidate ought to have a chance to give their views to the people of this country.” | “The decision about who is going to be president of the United States doesn’t belong with a Washington establishment or the news media and certainly not with the [Republican National Committee],” Gilmore, a former RNC chairman, told CNN on Sunday. “Every candidate ought to have a chance to give their views to the people of this country.” |
| Former congressman Bob Dornan, a long-shot contender for the Republican nomination in 1996, said he “knew the odds” – and felt the weight of history against him – when he declared his candidacy. (The only sitting member of the House of Representatives to be elected president was James Garfield in 1880.) | Former congressman Bob Dornan, a long-shot contender for the Republican nomination in 1996, said he “knew the odds” – and felt the weight of history against him – when he declared his candidacy. (The only sitting member of the House of Representatives to be elected president was James Garfield in 1880.) |
| But Dornan used his campaign as a vehicle to aggressively criticize then-Democratic candidate Bill Clinton and drive a conversation about abortion, which he viscerally opposes. | |
| “I ran to keep my party honest,” he said. “I knew I was going to break out. I was there to keep Bob Dole honest on pro-life.” Dole was the unsuccessful Republican challenger against incumbent president Clinton in 1996. | |
| Taking a holistic view, Dornan said the massive crew of Republicans in the 2016 race gives the party that many more voices to amplify issues important to conservatives. | |
| “So my advice to all these guys: stay in the race,” he said. “Put forth your conservative values. Ride the Greyhound bus and hold on as long as you can. Use that moment – even if you’re the guest on an afternoon show – use those moments to press the issues that you want. And for God’s sake, stop attacking each other.” | “So my advice to all these guys: stay in the race,” he said. “Put forth your conservative values. Ride the Greyhound bus and hold on as long as you can. Use that moment – even if you’re the guest on an afternoon show – use those moments to press the issues that you want. And for God’s sake, stop attacking each other.” |