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| Republican hopefuls jostle for limelight in TV debate as Trump's shadow looms | Republican hopefuls jostle for limelight in TV debate as Trump's shadow looms |
| (7 months later) | |
| The first televised debate in the battle for the Republican presidential nomination commences on Thursday when a bewilderingly large field of candidates jostle for a spotlight free from the eclipse of one man: Donald Trump. | The first televised debate in the battle for the Republican presidential nomination commences on Thursday when a bewilderingly large field of candidates jostle for a spotlight free from the eclipse of one man: Donald Trump. |
| The shadow of the billionaire reality TV personality, who has opened up a considerable lead over his rivals in national polls, already looms large over the primetime debate in Cleveland, which marks the unofficial start to the Republican race for the White House in 2016. | The shadow of the billionaire reality TV personality, who has opened up a considerable lead over his rivals in national polls, already looms large over the primetime debate in Cleveland, which marks the unofficial start to the Republican race for the White House in 2016. |
| Fox News, which is hosting the debate, has decided to place Trump at a podium in the middle of the stage, courtesy of his lead in polls. Other candidates will be lined up on either side of the property developer. | Fox News, which is hosting the debate, has decided to place Trump at a podium in the middle of the stage, courtesy of his lead in polls. Other candidates will be lined up on either side of the property developer. |
| Related: All eyes on Trump as Republican debate nears, but Fox will be the real winner | Related: All eyes on Trump as Republican debate nears, but Fox will be the real winner |
| Republican grandees are privately grimacing at the notion of a hubristic real estate magnate stealing the limelight in a year in which they believe they have an exceptionally experienced field of candidates. | Republican grandees are privately grimacing at the notion of a hubristic real estate magnate stealing the limelight in a year in which they believe they have an exceptionally experienced field of candidates. |
| “I’m not in love with the fact the debate could devolve into a somewhat more politically-orientated version of the The Apprentice,” said Liz Mair, a top Republican operative who has been an advisor to four of the presidential candidates. | “I’m not in love with the fact the debate could devolve into a somewhat more politically-orientated version of the The Apprentice,” said Liz Mair, a top Republican operative who has been an advisor to four of the presidential candidates. |
| “This is an extraordinarily deep bench that has a lot of accomplishments under its belt, and it will suck if over the course of this debate we don’t get a chance to talk about that because we’re spending time talking about ‘The Donald’.” | “This is an extraordinarily deep bench that has a lot of accomplishments under its belt, and it will suck if over the course of this debate we don’t get a chance to talk about that because we’re spending time talking about ‘The Donald’.” |
| Former Florida governor Jeb Bush, Wisconsin governor Scott Walker and Florida senator Marco Rubio are among the top-tier candidates who most pundits expect could ultimately emerge as victor. | Former Florida governor Jeb Bush, Wisconsin governor Scott Walker and Florida senator Marco Rubio are among the top-tier candidates who most pundits expect could ultimately emerge as victor. |
| But such predictions do not take into account the unpredictable upshot of the surge in support for Trump, who now stands at 23%, according to the average of multiple polls of Republican voters. | But such predictions do not take into account the unpredictable upshot of the surge in support for Trump, who now stands at 23%, according to the average of multiple polls of Republican voters. |
| Trump enjoys a double-digit lead over his nearest rivals, Bush and Walker, who are at 13% and 11% respectively, and he is even further ahead of Rubio, who is polling at 5%, alongside the slew of candidates struggling to get noticed in such a crowded field. | Trump enjoys a double-digit lead over his nearest rivals, Bush and Walker, who are at 13% and 11% respectively, and he is even further ahead of Rubio, who is polling at 5%, alongside the slew of candidates struggling to get noticed in such a crowded field. |
| In total, there are 17 major candidates, making the Republican primary the most congested and unpredictable in modern political history. It includes five governors, four ex-governors, four senators, two business executives and a world-renowned neurosurgeon. | In total, there are 17 major candidates, making the Republican primary the most congested and unpredictable in modern political history. It includes five governors, four ex-governors, four senators, two business executives and a world-renowned neurosurgeon. |
| With two candidates of Hispanic heritage, an Indian American, an African American and a woman, Republicans can also, for once, claim a roster more diverse than that offered by Democrats, whose field is made up of four white men (Bernie Sanders, Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee) and one white woman, Hillary Clinton. | With two candidates of Hispanic heritage, an Indian American, an African American and a woman, Republicans can also, for once, claim a roster more diverse than that offered by Democrats, whose field is made up of four white men (Bernie Sanders, Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee) and one white woman, Hillary Clinton. |
| There are so many Republican candidates, however, that they will not all be on the stage for the first debate. Fox News has limited the debate to the 10 presidential candidates performing best in recent national polls. | There are so many Republican candidates, however, that they will not all be on the stage for the first debate. Fox News has limited the debate to the 10 presidential candidates performing best in recent national polls. |
| Seven Republican presidential aspirants (including Carly Fiorina, the only woman) have therefore been relegated to an earlier debate, hosted especially for those languishing at the bottom of the polls. | Seven Republican presidential aspirants (including Carly Fiorina, the only woman) have therefore been relegated to an earlier debate, hosted especially for those languishing at the bottom of the polls. |
| The fact that the “kids’ table” debate will include Rick Perry, the longest-serving governor of Texas, and Rick Santorum, who came second in the 2012 Republican primary, speaks to the depth of the field of 2016 candidates. | The fact that the “kids’ table” debate will include Rick Perry, the longest-serving governor of Texas, and Rick Santorum, who came second in the 2012 Republican primary, speaks to the depth of the field of 2016 candidates. |
| For most of those presidential aspirants who made the cut of the main debate, broadcast at 9pm ET, the challenge will be getting noticed during a two-hour spectacle, interspersed with commercials, in which answers will be limited to one minute, rebuttals to 30 seconds, and the audience’s focus will be squarely on the combative, bombastic former host of The Apprentice. | For most of those presidential aspirants who made the cut of the main debate, broadcast at 9pm ET, the challenge will be getting noticed during a two-hour spectacle, interspersed with commercials, in which answers will be limited to one minute, rebuttals to 30 seconds, and the audience’s focus will be squarely on the combative, bombastic former host of The Apprentice. |
| Related: Is game theory the key to success in the Republican presidential debate? | Related: Is game theory the key to success in the Republican presidential debate? |
| It promises to be a combustible mix, though perhaps not one that will portray the Republican party in the best light to prime-time TV viewers, many of whom will be tuning in to get to know the candidates for the first time. | It promises to be a combustible mix, though perhaps not one that will portray the Republican party in the best light to prime-time TV viewers, many of whom will be tuning in to get to know the candidates for the first time. |
| Republicans feel optimistic about their chances in 2016. Recent electoral successes have given them control of the House and the Senate, while Democrats, looking to build on Barack Obama’s two terms in office, will need to buck a historical trend that has seen them rarely hold onto the White House for a third consecutive term. (It has happened only twice since 1828.) | Republicans feel optimistic about their chances in 2016. Recent electoral successes have given them control of the House and the Senate, while Democrats, looking to build on Barack Obama’s two terms in office, will need to buck a historical trend that has seen them rarely hold onto the White House for a third consecutive term. (It has happened only twice since 1828.) |
| Clinton, the Democratic heir apparent, is looking eminently beatable, hampered by controversy, including a scandal over her emails as secretary of state, and showing weaknesses in swing states like Colorado, Virginia and Iowa. | Clinton, the Democratic heir apparent, is looking eminently beatable, hampered by controversy, including a scandal over her emails as secretary of state, and showing weaknesses in swing states like Colorado, Virginia and Iowa. |
| To give its eventual candidate the best chance against the Democratic nominee, the Republican National Committee has compressed the 2016 primary calendar in a way that means the race could be over by March. | |
| But it has no way of handling a problem like Trump, who could seriously scupper the party’s prospects if he becomes disillusioned with the process and decides to run as a third-party candidate, splitting the rightwing vote. | But it has no way of handling a problem like Trump, who could seriously scupper the party’s prospects if he becomes disillusioned with the process and decides to run as a third-party candidate, splitting the rightwing vote. |
| It is a potent threat, and one Trump is prepared to wield, recently warning CNN: “If I am not treated fairly by the Republican party, I very well might consider that.” | It is a potent threat, and one Trump is prepared to wield, recently warning CNN: “If I am not treated fairly by the Republican party, I very well might consider that.” |
| Trump’s name recognition, and the wall-to-wall media coverage his campaign is receiving, goes a long way to explaining how a candidate widely dismissed as a joke six months ago has quickly ascended to the top of the polls. | Trump’s name recognition, and the wall-to-wall media coverage his campaign is receiving, goes a long way to explaining how a candidate widely dismissed as a joke six months ago has quickly ascended to the top of the polls. |
| Related: What would Donald Trump actually do as president? An analysis of his policies | Related: What would Donald Trump actually do as president? An analysis of his policies |
| But there is more to his ascent than that. After hastily dismissing Trump’s prospects, Washington’s political cognoscenti are beginning to face up to the possibility that his campaign may be more formidable than first expected. | But there is more to his ascent than that. After hastily dismissing Trump’s prospects, Washington’s political cognoscenti are beginning to face up to the possibility that his campaign may be more formidable than first expected. |
| Perhaps more noteworthy than his headline performance in the polls is the fact his unfavorable ratings among Republicans – a measure of how many of the party faithful could never countenance voting for him – have dropped dramatically in recent weeks. That is despite a string of controversies that might have been considered catastrophic gaffes for more conventional candidates. | Perhaps more noteworthy than his headline performance in the polls is the fact his unfavorable ratings among Republicans – a measure of how many of the party faithful could never countenance voting for him – have dropped dramatically in recent weeks. That is despite a string of controversies that might have been considered catastrophic gaffes for more conventional candidates. |
| Trump has compared Mexican immigrants to “rapists”, mocked the heroism of the party’s 2008 presidential nominee, John McCain, who was tortured as a prisoner of war in Vietnam, and declared that the concept of global warming is a hoax created by China to undermine American manufacturing. | Trump has compared Mexican immigrants to “rapists”, mocked the heroism of the party’s 2008 presidential nominee, John McCain, who was tortured as a prisoner of war in Vietnam, and declared that the concept of global warming is a hoax created by China to undermine American manufacturing. |
| He speaks about his rival Republican candidates with utter disdain, and recently retaliated against rival Lindsey Graham, who called Trump a “jackass”, by reading Graham’s cellphone number out on national TV. | He speaks about his rival Republican candidates with utter disdain, and recently retaliated against rival Lindsey Graham, who called Trump a “jackass”, by reading Graham’s cellphone number out on national TV. |
| Meanwhile, his position in the polls has defied the laws of political gravity, rising when pundits expected it to fall. | Meanwhile, his position in the polls has defied the laws of political gravity, rising when pundits expected it to fall. |
| Campaign debate experts say the interest in Trump, and the anticipation over which 10 candidates would qualify to appear on stage, have spurred the kind of hype that could result in record audiences. | Campaign debate experts say the interest in Trump, and the anticipation over which 10 candidates would qualify to appear on stage, have spurred the kind of hype that could result in record audiences. |
| “We usually slide into a long slog of debates,” said Mitchell McKinney, a professor in political communication at the University of Missouri. “The splash that has been made by this first debate is quite unusual.” | “We usually slide into a long slog of debates,” said Mitchell McKinney, a professor in political communication at the University of Missouri. “The splash that has been made by this first debate is quite unusual.” |
| On Thursday night, candidates like Bush, Walker and Rubio may try to float above the fray, calculating there is more to lose than gain in stooping low enough to lock horns with Trump. Others in the anti-establishment, conservative wing of the party – Texan senator Ted Cruz, in particular – could perceive an advantage in cosying up to the billionaire. | On Thursday night, candidates like Bush, Walker and Rubio may try to float above the fray, calculating there is more to lose than gain in stooping low enough to lock horns with Trump. Others in the anti-establishment, conservative wing of the party – Texan senator Ted Cruz, in particular – could perceive an advantage in cosying up to the billionaire. |
| But others in desperate need of a boost to their campaigns could reason that a memorable altercation with Trump, who is still disliked by large chunks of the party, is their best chance to stand out. | But others in desperate need of a boost to their campaigns could reason that a memorable altercation with Trump, who is still disliked by large chunks of the party, is their best chance to stand out. |
| Related: Donald Trump backlash intensifies within GOP ahead of first 2016 debate | Related: Donald Trump backlash intensifies within GOP ahead of first 2016 debate |
| New Jersey governor Chris Christie and Ohio governor John Kasich, both moderates lagging in the polls who have a reputation for speaking their mind, are perhaps the most likely to take aim at the goliath on the stage. | New Jersey governor Chris Christie and Ohio governor John Kasich, both moderates lagging in the polls who have a reputation for speaking their mind, are perhaps the most likely to take aim at the goliath on the stage. |
| For all his bluster, Trump is notoriously vague on policy, and is indisputably vulnerable if one of the other nine candidates, or three Fox News moderators, chooses to press him over specifics. | For all his bluster, Trump is notoriously vague on policy, and is indisputably vulnerable if one of the other nine candidates, or three Fox News moderators, chooses to press him over specifics. |
| The property developer has claimed, for example, that he will somehow convince Mexico to pay for a giant and impenetrable wall along its northern border. Trump has said he has a “foolproof plan” to defeat Islamic State, but has declined to offer specifics. Asked recently what he would replace Obama’s signature healthcare law with, he replied: “Something terrific.” | The property developer has claimed, for example, that he will somehow convince Mexico to pay for a giant and impenetrable wall along its northern border. Trump has said he has a “foolproof plan” to defeat Islamic State, but has declined to offer specifics. Asked recently what he would replace Obama’s signature healthcare law with, he replied: “Something terrific.” |
| But Alan Schroeder, a professor at Northeastern University who has written extensively about campaign debates believes candidates tempted by a joust with Trump will be wary. | But Alan Schroeder, a professor at Northeastern University who has written extensively about campaign debates believes candidates tempted by a joust with Trump will be wary. |
| “I don’t think theres a magic bullet here,” he said. “ I don’t think there’s a recipe for dealing with Donald Trump because he’s so unpredictable. | “I don’t think theres a magic bullet here,” he said. “ I don’t think there’s a recipe for dealing with Donald Trump because he’s so unpredictable. |
| Schroeder added: “Trump has some things that make him unique. Some of that is personality based, but also in his experience - he’s not just a businessman but also a television personality and all of that experience will be useful for this kind of format.” | Schroeder added: “Trump has some things that make him unique. Some of that is personality based, but also in his experience - he’s not just a businessman but also a television personality and all of that experience will be useful for this kind of format.” |
| Related: Don’t worry, Donald Trump won’t win. But I’ll sure miss him when he’s gone | Hadley Freeman | Related: Don’t worry, Donald Trump won’t win. But I’ll sure miss him when he’s gone | Hadley Freeman |
| In interviews in the days leading up to the debate, Trump has been uncharacteristically circumspect about his prospects, playing down the chances of a fiery encounter and insisting he would rather “just debate the issues”. | In interviews in the days leading up to the debate, Trump has been uncharacteristically circumspect about his prospects, playing down the chances of a fiery encounter and insisting he would rather “just debate the issues”. |
| “If I’m attacked I have to, you know, do something back,” he said on ABC’s Good Morning America, “but I’d like it to be very civil.” | “If I’m attacked I have to, you know, do something back,” he said on ABC’s Good Morning America, “but I’d like it to be very civil.” |