A-level results set to show slight drop in top grades

http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/aug/12/a-level-results-fewer-top-grades-science-english

Version 0 of 1.

Fewer pupils may be awarded top grades when they receive their A-level results later this week due to declines in sciences and humanities scores as well as students taking more competitive subjects.

Students in England who studied physics, biology and chemistry are likely to be particularly disappointed, with core science subjects seeing a fall in the proportion of entrants awarded A* and A grades this year compared with previous years.

There is likely to be better news for students who took English and mathematics, the two most popular A-level subjects, with English seeing a modest recovery after weaker results last year and mathematics little changed but with a higher proportion of entrants achieving B and C grades.

Overall, the proportion of top grades awarded may fall slightly, based on statistical analysis of the results achieved by the same group of students at GCSE level, which are used by the exam regulator Ofqual to fix the proportion of grades awarded.

Related: A-level examiners must achieve top grades before sealing pupils' fates

Ofqual’s chief regulator, Glenys Stacey, said there had been an increase this year in the number of pupils taking what she called “traditional” subjects favoured by universities, such as physics – subjects likely to see fewer top grades this year.

Any drop-off in top grades awarded will have little impact on those applying for undergraduate places this year thanks to the fierce competition between universities to attract students.

Nicola Dandridge, chief executive of Universities UK group, which represents all British universities, said the removal of the government’s cap on undergraduate numbers in England this year meant more places were available, including through the Ucas clearing system.

“For qualified applicants without a university place, there will still be a good chance to look for another suitable course from a wide range of universities via clearing,” Dandridge said. “It is important that we dispel the idea that clearing is a ‘second best’ option. Last year a record 61,000 students found a place via the clearing route, choosing from a wide variety of high-quality courses available.”

Wendy Piatt, director general of the Russell Group of 24 leading research universities, said the shift towards students taking core facilitating subjects was welcome news. “Some Russell Group universities may have places available for students who have done better than expected, and some for highly qualified students who narrowly missed out on their first choice. We encourage those students to get in touch with Ucas to see whether there may be places available to them.”

The change in top grades is a result of Ofqual’s use of “comparable outcomes”, a technique designed to anchor the grades awarded at A-level and GCSE to previous results achieved by a year’s cohort of pupils.

In the case of this year’s A-levels, awards are linked to the GCSE results of 2013, which saw a significant reduction in the proportion of A grades, particularly in sciences, history and geography.

Related: Fall in GCSE grades blamed on school 'exam factories'

The calculations in translating GCSE grades into A-level results are complex and take account of other factors, including dialogue between Ofqual and the examination boards. That means the final A-level results published on Thursday may differ from forecasts based on GCSE grades alone.

Statisticians involved cautioned that Ofqual’s calculations were made more difficult by the high number of younger pupils who sat GCSEs a year early, dragging down the 2013 results.

Using comparable outcomes has effectively put an end to possible grade inflation, so that the proportion of A grades awarded overall has steadily fallen since 2010, when the new policy was introduced, from 27% to 26% in 2014.

The statistics also suggest pupils who sat GCSE exams this year are likely to receive improved results in English thanks to a spike in attainment in the same cohort’s key stage two exams taken in 2010, their last year of primary school.

That measure was complicated by the boycott of key stage two exams by roughly one in four state schools in England that year. But officials at Ofqual and the exam boards are confident that the boycott had no statistical effect on national results.