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Syriza's Greece: the canary in the cage for Corbyn's Britain? Syriza's Greece: the canary in the cage for Corbyn's Britain?
(about 2 hours later)
Should we be pleased that Greece and its creditors seem to be edging towards a deal and renewed credit to ease the frightening crisis that threatened us all? We certainly should – though the deal is not yet signed and far from perfect. Should we be pleased that Greece and its creditors seem to be edging towards a deal and renewed credit to ease the frightening crisis that threatened us all? We certainly should – though the deal is not yet sealed and is far from perfect.
It’s a sign that both Europe’s so-called troika of lenders and the Syriza government in Athens have shown greater willingness to be flexible than has been the case since Alexis Tsipras won power in January.It’s a sign that both Europe’s so-called troika of lenders and the Syriza government in Athens have shown greater willingness to be flexible than has been the case since Alexis Tsipras won power in January.
It raises the prospect that a democratic mandate can (just about) coexist with the constraints of a fragile monetary union and the disciplines of a globalised financial economy. You could argue –though I don’t – that Jeremy Corbyn might also be emboldened by a radical government of the left surviving – even prospering – after savvy compromise. It raises the prospect that a democratic mandate can (just about) coexist with the constraints of a fragile monetary union and the disciplines of a globalised financial economy. You could argue – though I don’t – that Jeremy Corbyn might also be emboldened by a radical government of the left surviving – even prospering – after savvy compromise.
But that may be an optimistic assessment, as today’s gloomy editorial in the Guardian suggests. The euro timebomb ticks on, largely thanks to German intransigence, it says. Greece has been given more time to get its house in order, debt write-offs are probably on the way at last, but the price is more self-defeating austerity at home. The Irish might disagree.But that may be an optimistic assessment, as today’s gloomy editorial in the Guardian suggests. The euro timebomb ticks on, largely thanks to German intransigence, it says. Greece has been given more time to get its house in order, debt write-offs are probably on the way at last, but the price is more self-defeating austerity at home. The Irish might disagree.
Related: No wonder the Greek finance minister looks resigned over possible bailout dealRelated: No wonder the Greek finance minister looks resigned over possible bailout deal
In any case, this week’s provisional deal in the Athens Hilton (“two or three” items are outstanding) was reached on the technical level and must be endorsed by political leaders. Both Greek and German parliaments must also ratify it and both may prove stroppy and hard done by. As the editorial argues, both Tsipras and Angela Merkel will have to peddle half truths to their MPs.In any case, this week’s provisional deal in the Athens Hilton (“two or three” items are outstanding) was reached on the technical level and must be endorsed by political leaders. Both Greek and German parliaments must also ratify it and both may prove stroppy and hard done by. As the editorial argues, both Tsipras and Angela Merkel will have to peddle half truths to their MPs.
Well, maybe. But half truths are better than a bust-up that ejects Greece from the eurozone it should never have been allowed to join, damaging the residual zone’s credibility, Greece rather more and the world economy as well, by adding yet more uncertainty in troubled times. Well, maybe. But half truths are better than a bust-up that ejects Greece from the eurozone it should never have been allowed to join, damaging the residual zone’s credibility, Greece rather more, and the world economy as well, by adding yet more uncertainty in troubled times.
Thus China this week allowed the yuan to be devalued on two successive days. A scary opening salvo in a new currency war, or a step to the normalization of China’s financial system? Commentators are divided this morning – gloomsters at the FT, optimists at the Times – which means more uncertainty. Nils Pratley explains both scenarios here. Thus China this week allowed the yuan to be devalued on two successive days. A scary opening salvo in a new currency war, or a step to the normalisation of China’s financial system? Commentators are divided this morning – gloomsters at the FT, optimists at the Times – which means more uncertainty. Nils Pratley explains both scenarios here.
So it would be good if Greece calmed down, confidence crept back at home and abroad, and things started to feel better. Plenty of Greeks need to feel the worst may be over, though the rumoured prospect of an autumn election won’t help. It might allow Tsipras to consolidate his gains (or do I mean his concessions?) and shed his anti-euro allies on Syriza’s left flank. But elections are never certain: that’s their point.So it would be good if Greece calmed down, confidence crept back at home and abroad, and things started to feel better. Plenty of Greeks need to feel the worst may be over, though the rumoured prospect of an autumn election won’t help. It might allow Tsipras to consolidate his gains (or do I mean his concessions?) and shed his anti-euro allies on Syriza’s left flank. But elections are never certain: that’s their point.
But let’s see how all this might play in terms of Labour’s leadership prospects. As Rowena Mason reports today, there is a lot of excitement about £3 “entryism” by Trots, Tories, Greens etc, but also the admission that Team Corbyn may be so far ahead that it won’t make much difference.But let’s see how all this might play in terms of Labour’s leadership prospects. As Rowena Mason reports today, there is a lot of excitement about £3 “entryism” by Trots, Tories, Greens etc, but also the admission that Team Corbyn may be so far ahead that it won’t make much difference.
I’ve begun to feel about a Corbyn win much as I did about Gordon Brown’s looming premiership in 2007: inevitability. It may be another disaster (I feared it would be in 2007), but it had to happen because too many people, then and now, would cry “stab in the back” or “Blairite plot” if it didn’t. Can you imagine the anticlimax if the “Jez We Can” crusade collapsed under a dull, narrow win for a Burnham or Cooper?I’ve begun to feel about a Corbyn win much as I did about Gordon Brown’s looming premiership in 2007: inevitability. It may be another disaster (I feared it would be in 2007), but it had to happen because too many people, then and now, would cry “stab in the back” or “Blairite plot” if it didn’t. Can you imagine the anticlimax if the “Jez We Can” crusade collapsed under a dull, narrow win for a Burnham or Cooper?
So assuming Corbyn really does win, we should all take seriously the informal programme set out in today’s Guardian by John McDonnell, MP for Hayes and Harlington – ie Heathrow airport – and the campaign group MP who failed to get on the ballot (more’s the pity) to challenge Brown’s coronation in 2007.So assuming Corbyn really does win, we should all take seriously the informal programme set out in today’s Guardian by John McDonnell, MP for Hayes and Harlington – ie Heathrow airport – and the campaign group MP who failed to get on the ballot (more’s the pity) to challenge Brown’s coronation in 2007.
Related: Jeremy Corbyn would clear the deficit – but not by hitting the poor | John McDonnellRelated: Jeremy Corbyn would clear the deficit – but not by hitting the poor | John McDonnell
As you will see, McDonnell (he’s a nice guy too, by the way) warns that another credit-fuelled asset bubble is building up which needs to be pricked. He’s right about that, I fear, but goes on to set out a series of reforms to the banking and wider economic system, as if no one else had ever through of them before. Any one of them has proved very difficult, but not through want of trying. As you will see, McDonnell (he’s a nice guy too, by the way) warns that another credit-fuelled asset bubble is building up which needs to be pricked. He’s right about that, I fear, but goes on to set out a series of reforms to the banking and wider economic system, as if no one else had ever thought of them before. Any one of them has proved very difficult, but not through want of trying.
McDonnell is keen on eliminating the deficit (lack of credibility on that score was a key cause of Ed Miliband’s defeat, he concedes), an admission which gets him attacked by the Syriza left on his article’s BTL comment thread. It’s going to be paid off by cutting housing benefit subsidies to landlords, one of Mrs Thatcher’s damaging mistakes, and by ending what he calls the £93bn subsidy to corporations, which appears to be based on some muddled academic thinking.McDonnell is keen on eliminating the deficit (lack of credibility on that score was a key cause of Ed Miliband’s defeat, he concedes), an admission which gets him attacked by the Syriza left on his article’s BTL comment thread. It’s going to be paid off by cutting housing benefit subsidies to landlords, one of Mrs Thatcher’s damaging mistakes, and by ending what he calls the £93bn subsidy to corporations, which appears to be based on some muddled academic thinking.
As with Mr Corbyn’s inspiring stump speeches, there’s lots of interesting stuff here: socialised and localised renewable energy, public ownership of the railways, joint management with workers and customers (as usual, they often have diametrically opposed interests), lots of interesting ideas, any two of which would be challenging. And we haven’t even got to leaving Nato, banning the bomb and radically reforming the EU yet. As with Corbyn’s inspiring stump speeches, there’s lots of interesting stuff here: socialised and localised renewable energy, public ownership of the railways, joint management with workers and customers (as usual, they often have diametrically opposed interests), lots of interesting ideas, any two of which would be challenging. And we haven’t even got to leaving Nato, banning the bomb and radically reforming the EU yet.
It may be that the Tories will screw up so badly by 2020, leaving a majority of voters so open to fresh thinking from the left that the shadow cabinet which Corbyn and (probably) Tom Watson will put together this autumn really will get a shot at government. It would possibly be in collaboration with an SNP regime in Holyrood which could hardly (could it?) want to leave such a progressive country now that it had seen the light. It may be that the Tories will screw up so badly by 2020, leaving a majority of voters so open to fresh thinking from the left that the shadow cabinet which Corbyn and (probably) Tom Watson will put together this autumn really will get a shot at government. It would possibly be in collaboration with an SNP regime in Holyrood which could hardly (could it?) want to leave such a progressive country once it had seen the light.
In which case, Corbyn’s Britain would be grappling with multiple, divisive challenges both at home – we must assume not everyone sees the light – and abroad, with allies, former allies and possible new allies. That’s why Syriza’s progress, its successes and setbacks, are worth watching and learning from.In which case, Corbyn’s Britain would be grappling with multiple, divisive challenges both at home – we must assume not everyone sees the light – and abroad, with allies, former allies and possible new allies. That’s why Syriza’s progress, its successes and setbacks, are worth watching and learning from.
So Greece could be the canary in the cage for us. Tsipras may have miscalculated his troika negotiations (and sacked his games theorist of a finance minister for bad advice) and been forced into major retreat. But over time he will have some successes, too, as most governments do. So Greece could be the canary in the cage for the UK. Tsipras may have miscalculated his troika negotiations (and sacked his games theorist of a finance minister for bad advice) and been forced into major retreat. But over time he will have some successes, too, as most governments do.
But it’s never easy, as even those clever autocrats (have you watched BBC2’s Are Our Kids Tough Enough: Chinese School?) who struggle to macromanage China’s economy from Beijing, are learning the hard way.But it’s never easy, as even those clever autocrats (have you watched BBC2’s Are Our Kids Tough Enough: Chinese School?) who struggle to macromanage China’s economy from Beijing, are learning the hard way.
As China’s economy slows down they have tried to modernize the stock market, to shift the economy from exports to domestic consumption, to curb bad debt while also stimulating dodgy lending for infrastructure projects. The list is a long one and it isn’t working very well. So now they have resorted to a currency devaluation. As China’s economy slows down they have tried to modernise the stock market, to shift the economy from exports to domestic consumption, to curb bad debt while also stimulating dodgy lending for infrastructure projects. The list is a long one and it isn’t working very well. So now they have resorted to a currency devaluation.
It’s just the sort of panacea “real” Labour government were forced into when everything else had been tried in the good old days.It’s just the sort of panacea “real” Labour government were forced into when everything else had been tried in the good old days.