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London mayor: new poll boosts Jowell but Labour race remains opaque London mayor: new poll boosts Jowell but Labour race remains opaque
(about 1 hour later)
A new YouGov poll for LBC Radio makes happy reading for Tessa Jowell, long regarded as the favourite to become Labour’s candidate to run for London mayor next May. When all the “don’t knows” and “none of these” are stripped out of the sample of 1153 London adults, 42% think she would be the best Labour candidate of the six people in the running, exactly double the proportion who favour second-placed Sadiq Khan. Diane Abbott comes in third with 16% followed by David Lammy with 12% and Christian Wolmar and Gareth Thomas, each with 4%.A new YouGov poll for LBC Radio makes happy reading for Tessa Jowell, long regarded as the favourite to become Labour’s candidate to run for London mayor next May. When all the “don’t knows” and “none of these” are stripped out of the sample of 1153 London adults, 42% think she would be the best Labour candidate of the six people in the running, exactly double the proportion who favour second-placed Sadiq Khan. Diane Abbott comes in third with 16% followed by David Lammy with 12% and Christian Wolmar and Gareth Thomas, each with 4%.
In this respect, Jowell has improved her standing by 4% since the last YouGov poll of this type, which was conducted at the end June and onset of July. Khan’s rating has risen by 3% in the same period. The scores of Abbott, Thomas and Wolmar have stayed the same, while Lammy’s has fallen by 6%.In this respect, Jowell has improved her standing by 4% since the last YouGov poll of this type, which was conducted at the end June and onset of July. Khan’s rating has risen by 3% in the same period. The scores of Abbott, Thomas and Wolmar have stayed the same, while Lammy’s has fallen by 6%.
With Labour’s London “selectorate” of party members, affiliates and registered supporters due to begin casting their votes over the next few days, Jowell will surely highlight another part of the survey, which indicates that she would beat Zac Goldsmith, the near certain Tory candidate, if the mayoral election itself were a straight fight between the two. When “not sures” are excluded, she is shown to be ahead of the Conservative by 53% to 47%.With Labour’s London “selectorate” of party members, affiliates and registered supporters due to begin casting their votes over the next few days, Jowell will surely highlight another part of the survey, which indicates that she would beat Zac Goldsmith, the near certain Tory candidate, if the mayoral election itself were a straight fight between the two. When “not sures” are excluded, she is shown to be ahead of the Conservative by 53% to 47%.
In this case Jowell’s lead has narrowed sharply from 14% since YouGov last asked the question, but she still fares better against Goldsmith than does Khan: the survey finds that when “not sures” are left out 54% of London voters would prefer the Tory compared with 46% who’d prefer Khan when asked to choose between just the two of them. Jowell has argued strongly throughout the campaign that she is the Labour contender best equipped to see off Goldsmith, and these statistics hardly undermine her case.In this case Jowell’s lead has narrowed sharply from 14% since YouGov last asked the question, but she still fares better against Goldsmith than does Khan: the survey finds that when “not sures” are left out 54% of London voters would prefer the Tory compared with 46% who’d prefer Khan when asked to choose between just the two of them. Jowell has argued strongly throughout the campaign that she is the Labour contender best equipped to see off Goldsmith, and these statistics hardly undermine her case.
She can also point to the detail of the breakdown of the poll, which shows that 58% of those surveyed who voted Conservative at last May’s general election think she would be Labour’s best candidate. Indeed, in percentage terms she scores far higher with those Londoners who voted Tory in May than with those who voted Labour, among whom she is the top choice of 37% of those surveyed. She also does well with Ukip voters (58%) and Lib Dems (48%).She can also point to the detail of the breakdown of the poll, which shows that 58% of those surveyed who voted Conservative at last May’s general election think she would be Labour’s best candidate. Indeed, in percentage terms she scores far higher with those Londoners who voted Tory in May than with those who voted Labour, among whom she is the top choice of 37% of those surveyed. She also does well with Ukip voters (58%) and Lib Dems (48%).
Jowell’s “best candidate” figures contrast sharply with those for Khan. Only 14% of Tory voters think he’d be Labour’s best choice, whereas 25% of Labour voters do (though this is still 12% lower than those who preferred Jowell). Khan also gets 25% among London’s Lib Dem supporters while, unsurprisingly, only 11% of Ukip voters think he’d be Labour’s best choice.Jowell’s “best candidate” figures contrast sharply with those for Khan. Only 14% of Tory voters think he’d be Labour’s best choice, whereas 25% of Labour voters do (though this is still 12% lower than those who preferred Jowell). Khan also gets 25% among London’s Lib Dem supporters while, unsurprisingly, only 11% of Ukip voters think he’d be Labour’s best choice.
Being thought your party’s best bet by supporters of other parties does not, of course, mean that you would get those people’s votes. But in this respect too, the YouGov findings are happier for Jowell than for Khan. They show that in a straight Goldsmith-Jowell contest, 16% of Tory supporters would vote for her, and that 15% of Labour supporters would vote for Goldsmith - pretty much a crossover draw. Khan does less well in the equivalent theoretical scenario: only 7% of Conservative supporters said they would vote for him, while 20% of Labour supporters said they’d prefer Goldsmith.Being thought your party’s best bet by supporters of other parties does not, of course, mean that you would get those people’s votes. But in this respect too, the YouGov findings are happier for Jowell than for Khan. They show that in a straight Goldsmith-Jowell contest, 16% of Tory supporters would vote for her, and that 15% of Labour supporters would vote for Goldsmith - pretty much a crossover draw. Khan does less well in the equivalent theoretical scenario: only 7% of Conservative supporters said they would vote for him, while 20% of Labour supporters said they’d prefer Goldsmith.
And there’s another finding in the poll which suggests that Jowell has a better chance than Khan of beating Goldsmith to City Hall. While 90% of respondents said they’d be “comfortable” with the next London mayor being a woman, depressingly only 76% felt the same about an ethnic minority candidate and just 55% felt the same about the next mayor being Muslim, compared with 31% who said the opposite. Khan is both from an ethnic minority group and a Muslim.And there’s another finding in the poll which suggests that Jowell has a better chance than Khan of beating Goldsmith to City Hall. While 90% of respondents said they’d be “comfortable” with the next London mayor being a woman, depressingly only 76% felt the same about an ethnic minority candidate and just 55% felt the same about the next mayor being Muslim, compared with 31% who said the opposite. Khan is both from an ethnic minority group and a Muslim.
What conclusions can be drawn from this survey about the outcome of Labour’s mayoral candidate selection process? It’s vital to keep in mind that those Londoners surveyed by YouGov who voted Labour at the last general election are not the same group of people as the “selectorate” whose votes will actually decide who their mayoral candidate it is. Labour sources variously say that number could yet rise from the 84,000 confirmed as eligible by Labour’s London region on Tuesday evening to over 90,000 or even more than 100,000, with union member affiliates and registered supporters (who get a vote by signing up for £3), having swelled the ranks late in the day.What conclusions can be drawn from this survey about the outcome of Labour’s mayoral candidate selection process? It’s vital to keep in mind that those Londoners surveyed by YouGov who voted Labour at the last general election are not the same group of people as the “selectorate” whose votes will actually decide who their mayoral candidate it is. Labour sources variously say that number could yet rise from the 84,000 confirmed as eligible by Labour’s London region on Tuesday evening to over 90,000 or even more than 100,000, with union member affiliates and registered supporters (who get a vote by signing up for £3), having swelled the ranks late in the day.
The obvious question is whether the extraordinary, national Jeremy Corbyn factor, which has made him the favourite to become the next Labour Party leader, is having an impact on the capital’s parallel mayoral candidate selection race and, if so, what kind of impact? It seems impossible that London has been untouched by “Corbynmania” which separate YouGov polling suggests may give him an extraordinary 53% of the national Labour selectorate vote. It therefore seems entirely possible that those in the capital who want Corbyn to be leader will also be drawn to one of mayoral hopefuls from the left of the party spectrum: Abbott, who is openly backing Corbyn, the more centre-leftish Khan or even Wolmar, the most conspicuously green of the six. The obvious question is whether the extraordinary, national Jeremy Corbyn factor, which has made him the favourite to become the next Labour Party leader, is having an impact on the capital’s parallel mayoral candidate selection race and, if so, what kind of impact? It seems impossible that London has been untouched by “Corbynmania” which separate YouGov polling suggests may give him a remarkable 53% of the national Labour selectorate vote. It therefore seems entirely possible that those in the capital who want Corbyn to be leader will also be drawn to the mayoral hopefuls from the left of the party spectrum: Abbott, who is openly backing Corbyn, the more centre-leftish Khan or even Wolmar, the most conspicuously green of the six.
If this is indeed happening on a substantial scale, it seems bound to affect the “Blairite” Jowell’s chances - that, you can be sure, is what Khan’s camp is hoping That said, her team insists they’ve seen no sign of this and anyone reading straight across from a single national poll to the London mayoral battleground would be chancing their psephological arm. For example, Jowell secured far more nominations from London’s constituency party members than Abbott did. She’s also headed, though by a narrow margin, the most recent, less scientific, poll of readers of Labour List. If this is indeed happening on a substantial scale, it seems bound to hurt the “Blairite” Jowell’s chances - that, you can be sure, is what Khan’s camp is hoping. That said, Jowell’s team insists they’ve seen no sign of any adverse Jeremy effect and anyone reading straight across from a single national poll to the London mayoral battleground would be chancing their psephological arm. For example, Jowell secured far more nominations from London’s constituency party members than Abbott did. She’s also headed, though by a narrow margin, the most recent, less scientific, poll of readers of Labour List.
Khan, on the other hand, has the backing of London’s largest trade unions, though it cannot be assumed that the members of those unions who’ve signed up to vote will follow their leaders’ advice. Moreover, we are talking about two separate contests, which much of the London Labour selectorate might approach quite differently. New Statesman’s George Eaton points out that unless and until they become the subject of a bespoke poll, the true state of the Labour mayoral race will remain at least partially opaque.Khan, on the other hand, has the backing of London’s largest trade unions, though it cannot be assumed that the members of those unions who’ve signed up to vote will follow their leaders’ advice. Moreover, we are talking about two separate contests, which much of the London Labour selectorate might approach quite differently. New Statesman’s George Eaton points out that unless and until they become the subject of a bespoke poll, the true state of the Labour mayoral race will remain at least partially opaque.
As for the mayoral election itself, that will be fought on its own, distinctive political landscape whose contours may yet be subject to unpredictable shifts, whoever emerges as Labour’s candidate. On 11 September, we’ll finally find out who that is.As for the mayoral election itself, that will be fought on its own, distinctive political landscape whose contours may yet be subject to unpredictable shifts, whoever emerges as Labour’s candidate. On 11 September, we’ll finally find out who that is.
The full YouGov poll findings are here.The full YouGov poll findings are here.