California drought will persist despite 'significant and strengthening' El Niño

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/13/california-el-nino-drought-rain-snowpack

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Rain could come to drought-stricken California this fall, as one of the strongest El Niño weather patterns in recorded history looks set to hit the state, the National Weather Service (NWS) said on Thursday.

The NWS’s Climate Prediction Center said that current measurements were stronger than those detected ahead of the 1997 El Niño, which doubled rainfall in southern California.

El Niño is a complex weather pattern resulting from variations in ocean temperatures, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

But Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center, warned that even if El Niño did bring increased rain, the effect on the drought would be limited. “One season of above normal rain and snow is very unlikely to erase four years of drought,” Halpert said.

The National Weather Service measured increased temperatures in the Pacific ocean in July, which indicate “a significant and strengthening El Niño”.

The 1997 El Niño triggered one of the most severe storm systems in the state’s recent history, doubling the average rainfall from December 1997 to February 1998.

To truly benefit the state, rain and snow would need to reach northern California to fill some of the state’s primary reservoirs and increase the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountains.

Kevin Werner, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s western region climate services, said that El Niño tends to bring above normal precipitation to southern California, but is not proven to have such effects on northern California.

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“This is important because most of the water resources in the state originate from the much wetter mountain areas in the central and northern part of California along with the upper Colorado river basin,” Werner said.

While the weather system typically brings rain, it is also tied to mudslides and flooding.

The National Weather Service said that all of its models predict that the weather system will continue into spring 2016, peaking in late fall or early winter of 2015.

This El Niño has already caused drought conditions in Australia, Indonesia and parts if the the Philippines.