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US Jobs Report: Gloom hits markets as payroll misses forecasts - live updates US Jobs Report: Gloom hits markets as payroll misses forecasts - live updates
(35 minutes later)
2.57pm BST14:57
More disappointing economic news from the US.
Business activity in New York contracted for the first time in eight months in September, with the Institute for Supply Management’s index falling from 51.1 in August to 44.5.
NY ISM, joins Empire Fed, Philly Fed, Richmond, etccc Do you really want to see Factory Orders in 15 mins? https://t.co/qsHFzfncwZ
2.45pm BST14:45
A weak US economy - as evidenced by the weak job numbers - will also hit emerging market exporters. Sanjiv Shah at emerging markets specialist Sun Global Investments said:
The weaker than expected NFP data today suggests that the US Economy, which is the largest export market for many EM countries, is slowing down much more than was previously expected.
These numbers probably rule out a Fed interest rate increase for the rest of 2015 and, indeed, we worry that the Fed’s decision not to raise interest rates earlier this month was a missed opportunity.
It is without doubt that a weak US economy will negatively affect EM exporters but we expect lower bond yields to help EM bonds and EM equities.
2.43pm BST14:43
If a rate rise in October is pretty much off the table, some analysts do believe a move higher in December is still possible. Dr Harm Bandholz, chief US economist at UniCredit Research said:
Today’s employment report has most likely removed even the last small chance for a rate hike as early as this month.
But we continue to expect the first move at the mid-December meeting. Various Federal Reserve Open Market Committee members have over the past couple of weeks verbally teed up for a rate hike this year. The latest being Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who said in a TV interview this morning (admittedly before the employment report) that “raising rates in 2015 is a ‘reasonable forecast’”. What makes his statement so important is that he is one of the more dovish FOMC members.
Yesterday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams (centrist FOMC member and a voter this year) said that the decision to not raise rates in September was “a very close call”, which means that “it doesn’t take a lot of information to tip the balance.” Mr. Williams added that job gains of “above 100,000 or 150,000 would be good to me”, as the slower pace of job gains was “just a sign that the labor market was closer to being completely healed.”
Along the same lines Chair Yellen acknowledged last week that “the labor market has achieved considerable progress over the past several years.” In other words: The Fed is very pleased with the development of the labor market, and we doubt that two weaker months will alter this assessment. Before the December FOMC meeting we will be getting two more employment reports. In addition to possible upward revisions to the past numbers, they will likely show again faster job gains and an unemployment rate of 5.0% - or less. That, in turn would be good enough for the Fed to finally pull the trigger.
2.38pm BST14:38
Summary
If you’re just tuning in, here’s Jana Kasperkevic’s early take on the disappointing Jobs Report
Related: US economy adds only 142,000 jobs, raising doubts about interest rate rise
Our rolling coverage with full details and reaction starts here.
2.33pm BST14:33
Wall Street falls in early trading
Wall Street has opened sharply lower after the much weaker than expected US jobs figures, which have cast new doubts on the strength of the US economy.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 214 points or 1.3% while the S&P 500 has fallen 1%. Nasdaq has fallen 1.2%.
Updated at 2.35pm BST
2.29pm BST14:29
An early contender for sarcastic tweet of the day:
See, now if we had raised rates a week ago we could be cutting them today
2.22pm BST14:222.22pm BST14:22
The Federal Reserve simply cannot raise interest rates this month, says Marvin Loh of Bank of New York Mellon:The Federal Reserve simply cannot raise interest rates this month, says Marvin Loh of Bank of New York Mellon:
While recent Fed speakers have put on a brave face in saying that October is a live meeting, we don’t see how that is possible after this repot and the likely volatility that it will generate.While recent Fed speakers have put on a brave face in saying that October is a live meeting, we don’t see how that is possible after this repot and the likely volatility that it will generate.
So, December? Perhaps not, as Washington politicians could be wrangling over a possible government shutdown in three months time.So, December? Perhaps not, as Washington politicians could be wrangling over a possible government shutdown in three months time.
Loh adds:Loh adds:
The debt ceiling is also in play, and it will now influence both the October and December FOMC meetings. We maintain our March, 2016 first hike view.The debt ceiling is also in play, and it will now influence both the October and December FOMC meetings. We maintain our March, 2016 first hike view.
2.22pm BST14:222.22pm BST14:22
The non-farm payroll report could be the worst since the one which preceeded the second round of US quantitative easing, says Christopher Vecchio, currency analyst at DailyFX:The non-farm payroll report could be the worst since the one which preceeded the second round of US quantitative easing, says Christopher Vecchio, currency analyst at DailyFX:
It might be time to put a pin in hopes for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in 2015. With the US labor market having been the sole pillar of fundamental strength supporting the US dollar over the last year, the strongest talking point for a rate hike just took a significant hit. The September US labor market report was disappointing all around, arguably the worst report in recent memory – the worst perhaps since the May 2012 report that paved the way for QE2.It might be time to put a pin in hopes for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in 2015. With the US labor market having been the sole pillar of fundamental strength supporting the US dollar over the last year, the strongest talking point for a rate hike just took a significant hit. The September US labor market report was disappointing all around, arguably the worst report in recent memory – the worst perhaps since the May 2012 report that paved the way for QE2.
The US economy endured the second consecutive month of jobs growth below 200,000, all but erasing the potential for a Fed rate hike this year. Earlier this week, there was over a 42% chance of a rate hike in December, per the Fed funds futures contracts. After the report today, that probability dipped to 30% (and falling).The US economy endured the second consecutive month of jobs growth below 200,000, all but erasing the potential for a Fed rate hike this year. Earlier this week, there was over a 42% chance of a rate hike in December, per the Fed funds futures contracts. After the report today, that probability dipped to 30% (and falling).
2.18pm BST14:182.18pm BST14:18
It’s always important not to over-react to one single data release, but Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics, is making an exception this time.It’s always important not to over-react to one single data release, but Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics, is making an exception this time.
The chances of a rate hike by the Fed this year just went way down.The chances of a rate hike by the Fed this year just went way down.
He reckons that the US economy is still in fairish shape, with unemployment claims down and consumer spending up.He reckons that the US economy is still in fairish shape, with unemployment claims down and consumer spending up.
Accordingly, we wouldn’t be surprised if the economy had a stronger fourth quarter. But that isn’t going to show up in the published data for another few months, which means the Fed won’t be raising rates until early 2016.Accordingly, we wouldn’t be surprised if the economy had a stronger fourth quarter. But that isn’t going to show up in the published data for another few months, which means the Fed won’t be raising rates until early 2016.
2.09pm BST14:092.09pm BST14:09
Even the most bearish (realistic?) of the 104 economists in @ReutersPolls wasn't bearish enough on payrolls. EAA predicted 154k.Even the most bearish (realistic?) of the 104 economists in @ReutersPolls wasn't bearish enough on payrolls. EAA predicted 154k.
2.07pm BST14:072.07pm BST14:07
Something is heading higher after the jobs data - precious metals.Something is heading higher after the jobs data - precious metals.
#Gold spikes on US jobs data. pic.twitter.com/QbavohLmRL#Gold spikes on US jobs data. pic.twitter.com/QbavohLmRL
#Silver relief.... pic.twitter.com/VizLG02iob#Silver relief.... pic.twitter.com/VizLG02iob
2.05pm BST14:052.05pm BST14:05
Today’s jobs report has created a lot of angst in the financial world; the FT’s Katie Martin is rounding it up:Today’s jobs report has created a lot of angst in the financial world; the FT’s Katie Martin is rounding it up:
BBH: "Simply dreadful US jobs report"BBH: "Simply dreadful US jobs report"
DB Ruskin: "too early to bury Dec tightening hopes completely. Nonetheless, 2 weak reports starts to show lost growth momentum"DB Ruskin: "too early to bury Dec tightening hopes completely. Nonetheless, 2 weak reports starts to show lost growth momentum"
Updated at 2.08pm BSTUpdated at 2.08pm BST
1.57pm BST13:571.57pm BST13:57
Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, says the Fed would still like to raise borrowing costs.Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, says the Fed would still like to raise borrowing costs.
However today’s data, and the state of the global economy, doesn’t justify it.However today’s data, and the state of the global economy, doesn’t justify it.
“The US economy seems fairly resilient but, with employment data particularly disappointing for a second month running, enthusiasm for a rate hike in the short term will surely be tempered.“The US economy seems fairly resilient but, with employment data particularly disappointing for a second month running, enthusiasm for a rate hike in the short term will surely be tempered.
“The Federal Reserve don’t want to sit on their hands for too much longer, yet with significant global issues continuing to affect the US economy, now would not be the wisest time to press the button.“The Federal Reserve don’t want to sit on their hands for too much longer, yet with significant global issues continuing to affect the US economy, now would not be the wisest time to press the button.
“We’re surely not too far away from a first hike in seven years, although both US and global economic data will have to improve if it’s to happen before the end of the year.”“We’re surely not too far away from a first hike in seven years, although both US and global economic data will have to improve if it’s to happen before the end of the year.”
Updated at 1.57pm BSTUpdated at 1.57pm BST
1.55pm BST13:551.55pm BST13:55
Market expectations on chances of a December #Fed rate hike just tanked. It was 42% an hour ago, now 30% pic.twitter.com/MqsYu9Bq4BMarket expectations on chances of a December #Fed rate hike just tanked. It was 42% an hour ago, now 30% pic.twitter.com/MqsYu9Bq4B
1.54pm BST13:541.54pm BST13:54
This is a “uniformly dreadful” report, says Rob Carnell of ING, with just 142,000 new jobs being created across the American economy.This is a “uniformly dreadful” report, says Rob Carnell of ING, with just 142,000 new jobs being created across the American economy.
He agrees that it will prevent the Fed raising rates this month, and possibly not until 2016.He agrees that it will prevent the Fed raising rates this month, and possibly not until 2016.
The other disappointment in the data was from hourly wages growth, which only needed to show a 0.2% month-on-month increase to take its annualized growth rate into new territory. But instead, it was unchanged, and the annual rate remains stuck at 2.2% YoY. Not enough to get the Fed doves vote for a hike, at least not yet......The other disappointment in the data was from hourly wages growth, which only needed to show a 0.2% month-on-month increase to take its annualized growth rate into new territory. But instead, it was unchanged, and the annual rate remains stuck at 2.2% YoY. Not enough to get the Fed doves vote for a hike, at least not yet......
For once, these labour market numbers gave an unambiguous result. The problem is that it was unambiguously negative. No rate hike this month then it seems. But it raises doubts too about the probability of a December hike, unless the Fed changes the basis upon which it decided policy rates.For once, these labour market numbers gave an unambiguous result. The problem is that it was unambiguously negative. No rate hike this month then it seems. But it raises doubts too about the probability of a December hike, unless the Fed changes the basis upon which it decided policy rates.
That fits with the instant market reaction.That fits with the instant market reaction.
1.49pm BST13:491.49pm BST13:49
A US rate rise must be off the agenda until next year after 0% pay growth in non-farm payroll figures @BusinessDesk @guardianA US rate rise must be off the agenda until next year after 0% pay growth in non-farm payroll figures @BusinessDesk @guardian
1.49pm BST13:491.49pm BST13:49
More on when the US may raise rates, in the wake of these latest jobs figures:More on when the US may raise rates, in the wake of these latest jobs figures:
#Fed futures pricing in the following probabilities: Oct 10% (16% pre NFP) Dec 30% (45% pre NFP) Jan 37% (52% pre NFP) Mar 50% (66% pre NFP)#Fed futures pricing in the following probabilities: Oct 10% (16% pre NFP) Dec 30% (45% pre NFP) Jan 37% (52% pre NFP) Mar 50% (66% pre NFP)
1.46pm BST13:461.46pm BST13:46
The full non-farms report can be found at the Bureau of Labor Statistics website.The full non-farms report can be found at the Bureau of Labor Statistics website.
1.45pm BST13:451.45pm BST13:45
Instant reaction: It's bad....Instant reaction: It's bad....
Economists are united -- this is a grim jobs report, showing the US economy is in worse shape than hoped.Economists are united -- this is a grim jobs report, showing the US economy is in worse shape than hoped.
It also vindicates the Federal Reserve’s decision to not raise interest rates last month.It also vindicates the Federal Reserve’s decision to not raise interest rates last month.
And wow, wages: Average hourly earnings actually fell a penny last month. We've hit 5.1% unemployment, and there's no sign of wage growth.And wow, wages: Average hourly earnings actually fell a penny last month. We've hit 5.1% unemployment, and there's no sign of wage growth.
"I told you so." --Janet Yellen over her morning coffee. #NFP"I told you so." --Janet Yellen over her morning coffee. #NFP
Payrolls in a word: ouch.Payrolls in a word: ouch.
But a weak US labor market is not good news, and traders are reacting accordingly:But a weak US labor market is not good news, and traders are reacting accordingly:
For now, bad news = bad news. S&P futures take a dive. pic.twitter.com/fvPr1ki1u6For now, bad news = bad news. S&P futures take a dive. pic.twitter.com/fvPr1ki1u6
Bad news officially no longer good news, judging by FTSE reaction to disappointing US jobs data. Many just want hike over and done with.Bad news officially no longer good news, judging by FTSE reaction to disappointing US jobs data. Many just want hike over and done with.
1.45pm BST13:451.45pm BST13:45
And here’s the unemployment rate:And here’s the unemployment rate:
1.43pm BST13:431.43pm BST13:43
Here are the changes in non-farm payrolls since September 2013:Here are the changes in non-farm payrolls since September 2013:
1.40pm BST13:401.40pm BST13:40
And so much for a rate rise this year:And so much for a rate rise this year:
JUST IN: Fed funds futures now pricing first rate in March 2016 after weak jobs data » http://t.co/jJ1WCEJoVtJUST IN: Fed funds futures now pricing first rate in March 2016 after weak jobs data » http://t.co/jJ1WCEJoVt
1.37pm BST13:371.37pm BST13:37
More Americans quit the labor forceMore Americans quit the labor force
More gloom - the US labor force participation rate has fallen to just 62.4%, down from 62.6 in August.More gloom - the US labor force participation rate has fallen to just 62.4%, down from 62.6 in August.
That’s the lowest since the mid-1970s, showing that more Americans are simply dropping out of the labor market.That’s the lowest since the mid-1970s, showing that more Americans are simply dropping out of the labor market.
stunning: factor in whatever and just stunning here is labor partic back to 1977 pic.twitter.com/rbaoOqp2postunning: factor in whatever and just stunning here is labor partic back to 1977 pic.twitter.com/rbaoOqp2po
1.37pm BST13:371.37pm BST13:37
The wage data is bad too -- average hourly earnings were unchanged month-on-month.The wage data is bad too -- average hourly earnings were unchanged month-on-month.
Economists had expected that wages grew 0.2% last month.Economists had expected that wages grew 0.2% last month.
Updated at 2.00pm BSTUpdated at 2.00pm BST
1.35pm BST13:351.35pm BST13:35
US bond yields are also on the way down:US bond yields are also on the way down:
There she goes. US 10-year yield back below 2% #NFP pic.twitter.com/2am8BOumJsThere she goes. US 10-year yield back below 2% #NFP pic.twitter.com/2am8BOumJs
1.34pm BST13:341.34pm BST13:34
Dollar and markets fallDollar and markets fall
The much weaker than expected US jobs data has sent the dollar falling, on the basis that a US interest rate rise this year - already in some doubt - was now less likely.The much weaker than expected US jobs data has sent the dollar falling, on the basis that a US interest rate rise this year - already in some doubt - was now less likely.
Against the pound, the US currency has fallen from $1.5162 before the data to $1.5200.Against the pound, the US currency has fallen from $1.5162 before the data to $1.5200.
Stock markets have moved lower, since the jobs numbers show the US economy is nowhere near as strong as expected.Stock markets have moved lower, since the jobs numbers show the US economy is nowhere near as strong as expected.
The FTSE 100, up 94 points ahead of the release, is now up 50 points, while US futures are now down 0.7%.The FTSE 100, up 94 points ahead of the release, is now up 50 points, while US futures are now down 0.7%.
1.34pm BST13:341.34pm BST13:34
The US unemployment rate is unchanged at 5.1%, dashing hopes that it might have dipped again to 5%.The US unemployment rate is unchanged at 5.1%, dashing hopes that it might have dipped again to 5%.
1.31pm BST13:311.31pm BST13:31
US JOBS REPORT MISSES FORECASTSUS JOBS REPORT MISSES FORECASTS
Here we go!Here we go!
Just 142,000 new jobs were created in America last month. That is a big miss - much way less than the 201,000 that economist had expected. Just 142,000 new jobs were created in America last month. That is a big miss - much way less than the 201,000 that economists had expected.
And August’s reading has been revised DOWN - to 135,000, from the original 175,000 polled last month. And August’s reading has been revised DOWN - to 135,000, from the original 173,000 polled last month.
At first glance, it’s a poor show.At first glance, it’s a poor show.
Lots more to follow....Lots more to follow....
Updated at 2.35pm BST
1.29pm BST13:291.29pm BST13:29
You can almost taste the tension, even though today’s NFP report is a little less exciting than usual.You can almost taste the tension, even though today’s NFP report is a little less exciting than usual.
#eyetwitches#eyetwitches
Updated at 1.29pm BSTUpdated at 1.29pm BST
1.24pm BST13:241.24pm BST13:24
Heads up: September US NFPs due in <10-mins: +201K expected from +173K. Note: past 5 years, August has had avg revision higher of +79K.Heads up: September US NFPs due in <10-mins: +201K expected from +173K. Note: past 5 years, August has had avg revision higher of +79K.
Also due out: September US Unemployment Rate due at 5.1% unch, and wages due up +0.2% m/m and +2.4% y/y.Also due out: September US Unemployment Rate due at 5.1% unch, and wages due up +0.2% m/m and +2.4% y/y.
1.15pm BST13:151.15pm BST13:15
Non-Farm Payroll: What to watch forNon-Farm Payroll: What to watch for
There are five key things to watch out for when the Jobs Report lands in 15 minutes time.There are five key things to watch out for when the Jobs Report lands in 15 minutes time.
1) Was September a good month for job creation? The consensus is that 201,000 new jobs were created last month. That’s close to this year’s average of 218,000. Anything north of that would be a good sign.1) Was September a good month for job creation? The consensus is that 201,000 new jobs were created last month. That’s close to this year’s average of 218,000. Anything north of that would be a good sign.
2) Could the jobless rate fall again? Last month it dipped to 5.1%, which is pretty much ‘full employment’ in the Federal Reserve’s book. Another fall to 5.0% can’t be ruled out.2) Could the jobless rate fall again? Last month it dipped to 5.1%, which is pretty much ‘full employment’ in the Federal Reserve’s book. Another fall to 5.0% can’t be ruled out.
3) Any progress on wages? Average earnings growth has been stubbornly weak in the financial crisis, helping to keep inflation pegged.3) Any progress on wages? Average earnings growth has been stubbornly weak in the financial crisis, helping to keep inflation pegged.
4) Was August really so bad? A month ago, the NFP rose by just 173,000, but August’s data is typically revised higher.4) Was August really so bad? A month ago, the NFP rose by just 173,000, but August’s data is typically revised higher.
5) The nitty-gritty. Economists will be looking at the under-employment rate, showing how many Americans wanted to work longer hours, and the labour force participation rate, which measures people who drop out of the market altogether.5) The nitty-gritty. Economists will be looking at the under-employment rate, showing how many Americans wanted to work longer hours, and the labour force participation rate, which measures people who drop out of the market altogether.
Updated at 1.15pm BSTUpdated at 1.15pm BST
12.48pm BST12:4812.48pm BST12:48
Krueger: US labor market is polarisedKrueger: US labor market is polarised
Alan Krueger, Professor of Economics at Princeton University, is concerned that the benefits of the US jobs recovery aren’t being shared fairly.Alan Krueger, Professor of Economics at Princeton University, is concerned that the benefits of the US jobs recovery aren’t being shared fairly.
Krueger, who used to chair Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, told Bloomberg TV’s Tom Keene that:Krueger, who used to chair Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, told Bloomberg TV’s Tom Keene that:
We’re continuing to see polarisation of the work force. Job growth at the bottom and the top, but not so much in the middle.We’re continuing to see polarisation of the work force. Job growth at the bottom and the top, but not so much in the middle.
What we need in the near term is a stronger economy overall to help lift wagers. In the longer term we need more of a rebalance in favour of workers.What we need in the near term is a stronger economy overall to help lift wagers. In the longer term we need more of a rebalance in favour of workers.
You can see the interview here.You can see the interview here.
Updated at 12.49pm BSTUpdated at 12.49pm BST
12.37pm BST12:3712.37pm BST12:37
A month ago, there was genuine excitement ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll because there was a good chance that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at September’s meeting (they didn’t).A month ago, there was genuine excitement ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll because there was a good chance that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at September’s meeting (they didn’t).
Today’s report does not have the same drama, as the Fed isn’t likely to hike before December. But still, it will show how America’s labour market is faring this autumn.Today’s report does not have the same drama, as the Fed isn’t likely to hike before December. But still, it will show how America’s labour market is faring this autumn.
12.26pm BST12:2612.26pm BST12:26
Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal reckons a decisively strong US unemployment report would be welcomed by investors, even if it means interest rates are likely to rise in December.Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal reckons a decisively strong US unemployment report would be welcomed by investors, even if it means interest rates are likely to rise in December.
What would be the best NFP result for stocks? I think strong across the board would be the most bullish. A number that screams December.What would be the best NFP result for stocks? I think strong across the board would be the most bullish. A number that screams December.
Basically, a number that eliminates economic and Fed confusion in one fell swoop.Basically, a number that eliminates economic and Fed confusion in one fell swoop.
Updated at 12.28pm BSTUpdated at 12.28pm BST
12.25pm BST12:2512.25pm BST12:25
One hour until Non-Farm Payroll, and markets are upOne hour until Non-Farm Payroll, and markets are up
Investors are ending the week in positive mood as they anticipate the final data release of the week, the US jobs report.Investors are ending the week in positive mood as they anticipate the final data release of the week, the US jobs report.
In London the FTSE 100 is up 100 points, or 1.7%, at 6172 points. Banking shares are still rallying, after the Financial Conduct Authority proposed a deadline for PPI compensation claims.In London the FTSE 100 is up 100 points, or 1.7%, at 6172 points. Banking shares are still rallying, after the Financial Conduct Authority proposed a deadline for PPI compensation claims.
That was fast. No sooner does the City watchdog suggest the end of PPI payouts than I get two calls in one morning. Ugh.That was fast. No sooner does the City watchdog suggest the end of PPI payouts than I get two calls in one morning. Ugh.
Over in Paris, the France’s CAC has gained almost 2%.Over in Paris, the France’s CAC has gained almost 2%.
And the Dow Jones is is expected to gain around 0.5%, or 80 points, when Wall Street opens.And the Dow Jones is is expected to gain around 0.5%, or 80 points, when Wall Street opens.
The Non-Farm Payroll could potentially drive shares even higher, if it calms fears about the world economy.The Non-Farm Payroll could potentially drive shares even higher, if it calms fears about the world economy.
Jasper Lawler of CMC Markets explains:Jasper Lawler of CMC Markets explains:
At the moment it seems that fears over global growth are outweighing concerns about a US rate-hike.At the moment it seems that fears over global growth are outweighing concerns about a US rate-hike.
A jobs number that beats expectations and gives the Fed ammunition to signal its confidence in the US and even global economy by hiking interest rates this year, may well trigger a rally in equities.A jobs number that beats expectations and gives the Fed ammunition to signal its confidence in the US and even global economy by hiking interest rates this year, may well trigger a rally in equities.
Ilya Spivak, currency strategist at DailyFX, predicts the dollar could spike if America’s labour market is stronger than expected:Ilya Spivak, currency strategist at DailyFX, predicts the dollar could spike if America’s labour market is stronger than expected:
“The implications of an upbeat outcome for the US Dollar seem relatively straight-forward. If traders walk away from the jobs report thinking a Fed rate hike seems more likely than previously, the currency will probably strengthen.“The implications of an upbeat outcome for the US Dollar seem relatively straight-forward. If traders walk away from the jobs report thinking a Fed rate hike seems more likely than previously, the currency will probably strengthen.
Such a result may likewise help calm global slowdown fears and boost risk appetite, which ought to translate into outsized losses for funding currencies like the Euro and the Japanese Yen.Such a result may likewise help calm global slowdown fears and boost risk appetite, which ought to translate into outsized losses for funding currencies like the Euro and the Japanese Yen.
A weaker euro would not upset the European Central Bank, as it is good for exports and inflationary pressure.A weaker euro would not upset the European Central Bank, as it is good for exports and inflationary pressure.
12.14pm BST12:1412.14pm BST12:14
Paypal sounds alarm over Dublin housingPaypal sounds alarm over Dublin housing
Henry McDonaldHenry McDonald
Paypal is warning that foreign direct investment into Ireland is in danger if rents continue to soar in Dublin.Paypal is warning that foreign direct investment into Ireland is in danger if rents continue to soar in Dublin.
Our correspondent Henry McDonald reports:Our correspondent Henry McDonald reports:
Louise Phelan, Paypal’s boss of Irish operation, says she is paying €2,000 in hotel bills to every new employee coming to work in the Republic’s capital.Louise Phelan, Paypal’s boss of Irish operation, says she is paying €2,000 in hotel bills to every new employee coming to work in the Republic’s capital.
Speaking to the Irish Construction Industry Federation in Dublin today, Phelan says she is resorting to appealing to Paypal staff already in Ireland to offer rooms to new workers arriving there.Speaking to the Irish Construction Industry Federation in Dublin today, Phelan says she is resorting to appealing to Paypal staff already in Ireland to offer rooms to new workers arriving there.
She warned:She warned:
“It’s crisis time for us and for bringing in foreign direct investment overall,”“It’s crisis time for us and for bringing in foreign direct investment overall,”
The likes of Paypal and other mainly US multi-nationals has created tens of thousands of jobs over the last 40 years.But economists have warned that the recent spike in rents especially in Dublin could put off future global corporations setting up their European HQs in Ireland.The likes of Paypal and other mainly US multi-nationals has created tens of thousands of jobs over the last 40 years.But economists have warned that the recent spike in rents especially in Dublin could put off future global corporations setting up their European HQs in Ireland.
A recent survey found that in 80% of the Republic it is now cheaper to pay a mortgage than rent to a landlord.A recent survey found that in 80% of the Republic it is now cheaper to pay a mortgage than rent to a landlord.
Updated at 12.14pm BSTUpdated at 12.14pm BST
11.53am BST11:5311.53am BST11:53
Here’s Katie Allen on today’s blowout UK building data:Here’s Katie Allen on today’s blowout UK building data:
Related: Housebuilding drives UK construction sector growth in SeptemberRelated: Housebuilding drives UK construction sector growth in September
Updated at 12.02pm BSTUpdated at 12.02pm BST
11.52am BST11:5211.52am BST11:52
Helena SmithHelena Smith
Meanwhile in Greece, anti-terror police say they have unearthed detailed plans of kidnappings of prominent figures in what many fear may well be the next stage of the country’s economic crisis.Meanwhile in Greece, anti-terror police say they have unearthed detailed plans of kidnappings of prominent figures in what many fear may well be the next stage of the country’s economic crisis.
Helena Smith, our correspondent, reports from Athens.Helena Smith, our correspondent, reports from Athens.
As Greece slips ever deeper into recession – the side effect of implementing fiscal consolidation reforms that have come as the price of being bailed out for a third time – fears of heightened criminality are also mounting. After a soar in break-ins (with the sale of safe deposit boxes skyrocketing during fraught negotiations with creditors over the latest loan deal), counter-terrorism officials now say they have discovered the makings of a plot that would have involved abductions at the highest echelons of society.As Greece slips ever deeper into recession – the side effect of implementing fiscal consolidation reforms that have come as the price of being bailed out for a third time – fears of heightened criminality are also mounting. After a soar in break-ins (with the sale of safe deposit boxes skyrocketing during fraught negotiations with creditors over the latest loan deal), counter-terrorism officials now say they have discovered the makings of a plot that would have involved abductions at the highest echelons of society.
A notebook listing suspected targets for kidnapping – and naming at least 25 leading businessmen, ship-owners and their families – was discovered alongside a heavy weapons cache in a building in Marathon, eastern Attica earlier this week. Authorities are believed to have been led to the building, described as a storeroom, after a tip off.A notebook listing suspected targets for kidnapping – and naming at least 25 leading businessmen, ship-owners and their families – was discovered alongside a heavy weapons cache in a building in Marathon, eastern Attica earlier this week. Authorities are believed to have been led to the building, described as a storeroom, after a tip off.
Although police have not released the names of the individuals, they say they have been left in no doubt that plans were afoot to kidnap them in the coming months. The notebook, which is currently being examined, also contained in-depth details of abduction plans.Although police have not released the names of the individuals, they say they have been left in no doubt that plans were afoot to kidnap them in the coming months. The notebook, which is currently being examined, also contained in-depth details of abduction plans.
Almost six years into its worst economic crisis in modern times, Greece has become increasingly divided between rich and poor with fears of kidnappings being openly aired among the more affluent members of society.Almost six years into its worst economic crisis in modern times, Greece has become increasingly divided between rich and poor with fears of kidnappings being openly aired among the more affluent members of society.
Notebook found at terror cache had list of abduction targets http://t.co/e94nXLsLSv pic.twitter.com/4LZwQg8NrFNotebook found at terror cache had list of abduction targets http://t.co/e94nXLsLSv pic.twitter.com/4LZwQg8NrF
Updated at 1.02pm BSTUpdated at 1.02pm BST
11.27am BST11:2711.27am BST11:27
Over in Portugal, they’re gearing up for a general election. And, despite the country’s deep austerity programme, the current government could well squeak back into power.Over in Portugal, they’re gearing up for a general election. And, despite the country’s deep austerity programme, the current government could well squeak back into power.
Our own Angelique Chrisafis reports:Our own Angelique Chrisafis reports:
Portugal could make history by becoming the first eurozone bailout country to re-elect a government that imposed harsh and unpopular austerity measures when it votes this weekend.Portugal could make history by becoming the first eurozone bailout country to re-elect a government that imposed harsh and unpopular austerity measures when it votes this weekend.
Final polls suggest the centre-right ruling coalition is on course to win Sunday’s general election after a close-run campaign, although it appears likely to lose its absolute parliamentary majority.Final polls suggest the centre-right ruling coalition is on course to win Sunday’s general election after a close-run campaign, although it appears likely to lose its absolute parliamentary majority.
The incumbent prime minister, Pedro Passos Coelho, who implemented severe austerity measures, including cutting pay and pensions, slashing public services and introducing the largest tax hikes in living memory, argued on the campaign trail that he was the only one to be trusted to protect the fragile economy as it emerges from years of recession.The incumbent prime minister, Pedro Passos Coelho, who implemented severe austerity measures, including cutting pay and pensions, slashing public services and introducing the largest tax hikes in living memory, argued on the campaign trail that he was the only one to be trusted to protect the fragile economy as it emerges from years of recession.
“If we stay on the path we’ve been following, we won’t need any more bailouts,” he said, as his Social Democratic party ran on a joint ticket with its coalition partner, the smaller, conservative Popular party.“If we stay on the path we’ve been following, we won’t need any more bailouts,” he said, as his Social Democratic party ran on a joint ticket with its coalition partner, the smaller, conservative Popular party.
Here’s her full story:Here’s her full story:
Related: Portugal predicted to vote pro-austerity coalition back inRelated: Portugal predicted to vote pro-austerity coalition back in
11.05am BST11:0511.05am BST11:05
Shinichiro Kadota, FX strategist at Barclays in Tokyo, believes today’s Non-Farm Payroll report would need to be remarkably good, or bad, to shake the Federal Reserve.Shinichiro Kadota, FX strategist at Barclays in Tokyo, believes today’s Non-Farm Payroll report would need to be remarkably good, or bad, to shake the Federal Reserve.
Kadota said (via Reuters)Kadota said (via Reuters)
“Fed chair Janet Yellen has already mentioned that labour conditions are improving and hinted that developments overseas, notably in China, and prices were chief concerns.“Fed chair Janet Yellen has already mentioned that labour conditions are improving and hinted that developments overseas, notably in China, and prices were chief concerns.
“A very bullish report would of course have a big impact. But the Fed may not make its rates decision on employment data alone.”“A very bullish report would of course have a big impact. But the Fed may not make its rates decision on employment data alone.”
As covered in the introduction, economists expect around 200,000 new jobs were created in September; August’s 173,000 reading could also be revised higher.As covered in the introduction, economists expect around 200,000 new jobs were created in September; August’s 173,000 reading could also be revised higher.
US NFP's for SEP out at 10;30PM AEST with market expectations at +201k after +173K in AUG. #NFPguesses +206k. pic.twitter.com/yuFsGZhHWTUS NFP's for SEP out at 10;30PM AEST with market expectations at +201k after +173K in AUG. #NFPguesses +206k. pic.twitter.com/yuFsGZhHWT
Updated at 11.07am BSTUpdated at 11.07am BST
10.29am BST10:2910.29am BST10:29
Concerns that Europe is heading back into deflation have been heightened by new data, showing that prices charged by eurozone producers fell in August:Concerns that Europe is heading back into deflation have been heightened by new data, showing that prices charged by eurozone producers fell in August:
Euro area producer prices -0.8% in Aug 15 over July 15, -2.6% over Aug 14 #Eurostat http://t.co/TfZfnbh44B pic.twitter.com/NFr6EmcqXFEuro area producer prices -0.8% in Aug 15 over July 15, -2.6% over Aug 14 #Eurostat http://t.co/TfZfnbh44B pic.twitter.com/NFr6EmcqXF
10.16am BST10:1610.16am BST10:16
Here’s our take on the latest developments in the emissions scandal, including reports that BMW, Chrysler, General Motors, Land Rover and Mercedes-Benz are all being investigated by US officials:Here’s our take on the latest developments in the emissions scandal, including reports that BMW, Chrysler, General Motors, Land Rover and Mercedes-Benz are all being investigated by US officials:
Related: VW scandal: French authorities launch deception inquiryRelated: VW scandal: French authorities launch deception inquiry
Updated at 10.21am BSTUpdated at 10.21am BST
10.08am BST10:0810.08am BST10:08
VW investigated over "aggravated deception" in FranceVW investigated over "aggravated deception" in France
Another front has opened up in the Volkswagen diesel emissions scandal, with French prosecutors probing the carmaker for potential “aggravated deception”.Another front has opened up in the Volkswagen diesel emissions scandal, with French prosecutors probing the carmaker for potential “aggravated deception”.
Reuters has the story:Reuters has the story:
The Paris Prosecutor has opened an inquiry into suspected “aggravated deception” by Volkswagen, an official from the Prosecutor’s office told Reuters on Friday.The Paris Prosecutor has opened an inquiry into suspected “aggravated deception” by Volkswagen, an official from the Prosecutor’s office told Reuters on Friday.
The move adds to the legal burden the German carmaker faces after U.S. investigators found that it had rigged vehicle pollution emissions tests.The move adds to the legal burden the German carmaker faces after U.S. investigators found that it had rigged vehicle pollution emissions tests.
Paris prosecutor's office opens inquiry into VW for suspected aggravated deception, Reuters and L'Express report http://t.co/rW7qoakDQ5Paris prosecutor's office opens inquiry into VW for suspected aggravated deception, Reuters and L'Express report http://t.co/rW7qoakDQ5
9.44am BST09:449.44am BST09:44
UK construction growth hits 7-month highUK construction growth hits 7-month high
Britain’s construction sector grew at its fastest pace in seven months in September, driven by housebuilding.Britain’s construction sector grew at its fastest pace in seven months in September, driven by housebuilding.
Markit’s construction PMI, which measures activity across the sector, jumped to 59.9 from 57.3 in August (any reading over 50 shows growth).Markit’s construction PMI, which measures activity across the sector, jumped to 59.9 from 57.3 in August (any reading over 50 shows growth).
Builders reported greater workloads, and are more upbeat about the business outlook too.Builders reported greater workloads, and are more upbeat about the business outlook too.
Markit says:Markit says:
House building remained the best performing broad category of construction activity in September.House building remained the best performing broad category of construction activity in September.
The latest expansion of residential building was the strongest for 12 months which some survey respondents attributed to the launch of development projects that had been delayed earlier in 2015.The latest expansion of residential building was the strongest for 12 months which some survey respondents attributed to the launch of development projects that had been delayed earlier in 2015.
9.37am BST09:379.37am BST09:37
Apple’s latest smartphone has helped drive sales up 6.9% at John Lewis, a handy barometer of UK consumer confidence.Apple’s latest smartphone has helped drive sales up 6.9% at John Lewis, a handy barometer of UK consumer confidence.
New iPhones help John Lewis ring up sales rise, strong week at dept store bodes well for September UK retail sales http://t.co/F6prx1HEAVNew iPhones help John Lewis ring up sales rise, strong week at dept store bodes well for September UK retail sales http://t.co/F6prx1HEAV
9.36am BST09:369.36am BST09:36
A third Glencore director has given the mining and commodities company a vote of confidence, by buying more shares.A third Glencore director has given the mining and commodities company a vote of confidence, by buying more shares.
William Macaulay spent more than £1.5m buying 1.7 million shares in Glencore at 90p yesterday, as the shares rebounded from their record plunge on Monday.William Macaulay spent more than £1.5m buying 1.7 million shares in Glencore at 90p yesterday, as the shares rebounded from their record plunge on Monday.
He follows chairman Tony Hayward, who bought 100,000 shares, and fellow director John Mack who snaffled 550,000 at just 80p.He follows chairman Tony Hayward, who bought 100,000 shares, and fellow director John Mack who snaffled 550,000 at just 80p.
9.23am BST09:239.23am BST09:23
Spanish jobless total creeps up as tourists departSpanish jobless total creeps up as tourists depart
With the tourist season over, the Spanish unemployment total is rising again.With the tourist season over, the Spanish unemployment total is rising again.
The number of people out of work across Spain rose by 26,087 in September, the Labour Ministry reported, a rise of 0.64%.The number of people out of work across Spain rose by 26,087 in September, the Labour Ministry reported, a rise of 0.64%.
That pushes Spain’s jobless total to 4,094,042 million unemployed people. That’s 353,608 fewer than in September 2014, and the lowest since the eurozone debt crisis began:That pushes Spain’s jobless total to 4,094,042 million unemployed people. That’s 353,608 fewer than in September 2014, and the lowest since the eurozone debt crisis began:
And on a seasonally adjusted basis, Spanish unemployment in September fell by 9,746 people.And on a seasonally adjusted basis, Spanish unemployment in September fell by 9,746 people.
2015 has been a bumper year for Spanish tourism, with visitor numbers up 4.2% to a new record high of 29.2m.2015 has been a bumper year for Spanish tourism, with visitor numbers up 4.2% to a new record high of 29.2m.
Updated at 9.24am BSTUpdated at 9.24am BST
9.18am BST09:189.18am BST09:18
Reminder of a typical NFP day - boring, boring, boring, boring, eye twitches, GREAT TERROR, REVERSAL, boring, boring, pub, pub, pub, pubReminder of a typical NFP day - boring, boring, boring, boring, eye twitches, GREAT TERROR, REVERSAL, boring, boring, pub, pub, pub, pub
8.47am BST08:478.47am BST08:47
Here’s confirmation that some traders are losing their enthusiasm for the Non-Farm Payroll circus:Here’s confirmation that some traders are losing their enthusiasm for the Non-Farm Payroll circus:
Fantastic jobs number, upward revisions to August won't matter cos the Fed is never hiking #NFPGuessesFantastic jobs number, upward revisions to August won't matter cos the Fed is never hiking #NFPGuesses
8.43am BST08:438.43am BST08:43
Shares in Experian have fallen by 4.5% this morning after the consumer credit monitoring firm announced it had been hacked.Shares in Experian have fallen by 4.5% this morning after the consumer credit monitoring firm announced it had been hacked.
The data breach risks exposing personal data of 15 million T-Mobile consumers, including names, addresses, and social security, driver’s license and passport numbers.The data breach risks exposing personal data of 15 million T-Mobile consumers, including names, addresses, and social security, driver’s license and passport numbers.
More here:More here:
Related: Experian hack exposes 15 million people's personal informationRelated: Experian hack exposes 15 million people's personal information
Updated at 9.31am BSTUpdated at 9.31am BST
8.39am BST08:398.39am BST08:39
The end may finally be in sight for Britain’s long-running payments protection insurance saga.The end may finally be in sight for Britain’s long-running payments protection insurance saga.
The City regulator has announced plans to force consumers to file compensation claims by the spring of 2018, if they believe they were wrongly sold insurance on financial product.The City regulator has announced plans to force consumers to file compensation claims by the spring of 2018, if they believe they were wrongly sold insurance on financial product.
My colleague Jill Treanor explains:My colleague Jill Treanor explains:
The regulator had faced pressure from the industry to set a deadline for customers making claims for the insurance sold alongside loans as the bill has already reached more than £25bn in compensation and administration costs.The regulator had faced pressure from the industry to set a deadline for customers making claims for the insurance sold alongside loans as the bill has already reached more than £25bn in compensation and administration costs.
Over £20bn redress has been paid to over 10 million consumers so far, the FCA said.Over £20bn redress has been paid to over 10 million consumers so far, the FCA said.
Related: PPI claims could face 2018 deadline under FCA plansRelated: PPI claims could face 2018 deadline under FCA plans
Bank shares have jumped by around 2.5% this morning, on relief that compensation payments might finally be capped.Bank shares have jumped by around 2.5% this morning, on relief that compensation payments might finally be capped.
Hopefully it will mean an end to irritating PPI phone calls too – just in time for Volkswagen compensation claims instead....Hopefully it will mean an end to irritating PPI phone calls too – just in time for Volkswagen compensation claims instead....
Updated at 8.39am BSTUpdated at 8.39am BST
8.31am BST08:318.31am BST08:31
European markets rally at the openEuropean markets rally at the open
European stock markets have jumped over 1% in early trading, ahead of the US jobs report this afternoon:European stock markets have jumped over 1% in early trading, ahead of the US jobs report this afternoon:
After recent losses, traders will be hoping for a solid but unspectacular NFP reading. However, a strong or weak number could cause some alarm:After recent losses, traders will be hoping for a solid but unspectacular NFP reading. However, a strong or weak number could cause some alarm:
Tony Cross of Trustnet Direct explains:Tony Cross of Trustnet Direct explains:
This number risks either scaring investors off with fears that the US economy is plateauing, or will reaffirm the view that the Federal Reserve needs to hike rates soon to prevent overheating – if there is a Goldilocks zone here, it’s likely to be rather narrow.This number risks either scaring investors off with fears that the US economy is plateauing, or will reaffirm the view that the Federal Reserve needs to hike rates soon to prevent overheating – if there is a Goldilocks zone here, it’s likely to be rather narrow.
8.16am BST08:168.16am BST08:16
Introduction: US jobs report on the wayIntroduction: US jobs report on the way
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
There’s a running joke in financial circles that every US jobs report is the most important ever. That might be a slight exaggeration this month, but today’s Non-Farm Payroll report still has the power to shift the marketsThere’s a running joke in financial circles that every US jobs report is the most important ever. That might be a slight exaggeration this month, but today’s Non-Farm Payroll report still has the power to shift the markets
The September Non-Farm Payroll, due at 1.30pm BST, will show how many new jobs were created in America last month. It’ll also show whether workers benefitted from the recovery with higher wages.The September Non-Farm Payroll, due at 1.30pm BST, will show how many new jobs were created in America last month. It’ll also show whether workers benefitted from the recovery with higher wages.
Economists predict that just over 200,000 new jobs were created last month, up from a disappointing 173,000 last month.Economists predict that just over 200,000 new jobs were created last month, up from a disappointing 173,000 last month.
The market expects the US to have created 201,000 non-farm jobs in September, up from a poor 173,000 in August. #NFPGuessesThe market expects the US to have created 201,000 non-farm jobs in September, up from a poor 173,000 in August. #NFPGuesses
That would put more pressure on the Federal Reserve to take the plunge and raise borrowing costs before the end of 2015....That would put more pressure on the Federal Reserve to take the plunge and raise borrowing costs before the end of 2015....
.... except it’s not quite that simple any more. The Fed is also worried about the state of the global economy, and the impact of China’s slowdown on the financial system..... except it’s not quite that simple any more. The Fed is also worried about the state of the global economy, and the impact of China’s slowdown on the financial system.
Chris Weston of IG says traders are getting “a bit exhausted” about the steady stream of allegedly “game-changing” data releases, especially when none of them actually prompt a change of policy.Chris Weston of IG says traders are getting “a bit exhausted” about the steady stream of allegedly “game-changing” data releases, especially when none of them actually prompt a change of policy.
He also reckons the earning data should be interesting:He also reckons the earning data should be interesting:
The single most influential issue that should jump out immediately is that forecasters are expecting wages to grow 2.4% (range 2% to 2.5%). This would effectively be the strongest pace of wage growth since late 2009 and should increase the implied probability of a December hike closer, if not above 50%.The single most influential issue that should jump out immediately is that forecasters are expecting wages to grow 2.4% (range 2% to 2.5%). This would effectively be the strongest pace of wage growth since late 2009 and should increase the implied probability of a December hike closer, if not above 50%.
There’s not much else on the calendar today, alas, apart from UK construction data at 9.30am BST, and new Spanish unemployment data....There’s not much else on the calendar today, alas, apart from UK construction data at 9.30am BST, and new Spanish unemployment data....
And in the eurozone, junior ministers should be working on the list of bailout measures Greece must take in return for its next loan payment, ahead of a full eurogroup meeting on Monday.And in the eurozone, junior ministers should be working on the list of bailout measures Greece must take in return for its next loan payment, ahead of a full eurogroup meeting on Monday.
#Eurogroup Working Group meeting today in Brussels to specify timetable of prior actions and tranches for #Greece.#Eurogroup Working Group meeting today in Brussels to specify timetable of prior actions and tranches for #Greece.
Updated at 8.33am BSTUpdated at 8.33am BST