This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/oct/02/markets-us-jobs-report-non-farm-live-updates
The article has changed 21 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 19 | Version 20 |
|---|---|
| US jobs report: markets volatile as payroll misses forecasts - live updates | US jobs report: markets volatile as payroll misses forecasts - live updates |
| (30 days later) | |
| 6.45pm BST | 6.45pm BST |
| 18:45 | 18:45 |
| Here’s our updated report on the US jobs data, by Jana Kasperkevic in New York and Phillip Inman: | Here’s our updated report on the US jobs data, by Jana Kasperkevic in New York and Phillip Inman: |
| A slump in world trade and a slowdown in China took their toll on the US economy last month as surveys revealed that firms delayed hiring and factory orders contracted. | A slump in world trade and a slowdown in China took their toll on the US economy last month as surveys revealed that firms delayed hiring and factory orders contracted. |
| US businesses created only 142,000 jobs in September, according to official figures, about 64,000 fewer than expected by analysts. The report by the US Labor department also found that employers kept average pay rises at zero and thousands of workers quit the labour market, taking the participation rate back to levels last seen in the 1970s. | US businesses created only 142,000 jobs in September, according to official figures, about 64,000 fewer than expected by analysts. The report by the US Labor department also found that employers kept average pay rises at zero and thousands of workers quit the labour market, taking the participation rate back to levels last seen in the 1970s. |
| The much anticipated data was widely seen as ending any expectations of an interest rate rise by the US Federal Reserve before Christmas. | The much anticipated data was widely seen as ending any expectations of an interest rate rise by the US Federal Reserve before Christmas. |
| The lack of any pressure on wages is likely to be the biggest factor persuading Fed officials against a rise from the current rate of near zero, which was anticipated last month until it became obvious that the slowing Chinese economy and the panic it caused on global markets formed a powerful case against a rate rise. | The lack of any pressure on wages is likely to be the biggest factor persuading Fed officials against a rise from the current rate of near zero, which was anticipated last month until it became obvious that the slowing Chinese economy and the panic it caused on global markets formed a powerful case against a rate rise. |
| Separate surveys added to the gloomy picture, showing that US factory orders fell 1.7% in August, compared with expectations of a 1.3% decline, and business activity in New York contracted for the first time in eight months in September. | Separate surveys added to the gloomy picture, showing that US factory orders fell 1.7% in August, compared with expectations of a 1.3% decline, and business activity in New York contracted for the first time in eight months in September. |
| The Dow Jones fell more than 200 points on the news, only to recover to a 27 point loss by 1700 BST. The FTSE 100 shrugged off the news as investors welcomed the prospect of ultra low interest rates until at least next year. the index of Britain’s top 100 companies closed up nearly 1% at 6,129 points. | The Dow Jones fell more than 200 points on the news, only to recover to a 27 point loss by 1700 BST. The FTSE 100 shrugged off the news as investors welcomed the prospect of ultra low interest rates until at least next year. the index of Britain’s top 100 companies closed up nearly 1% at 6,129 points. |
| On that note, it’s time to close up for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back next week. | On that note, it’s time to close up for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back next week. |
| 5.54pm BST | 5.54pm BST |
| 17:54 | 17:54 |
| I think the market response to the jobs report is: Weak report makes 2015 hike less likely, but on further inspection, firming trend remains | I think the market response to the jobs report is: Weak report makes 2015 hike less likely, but on further inspection, firming trend remains |
| 10-year yield rebounding faster than the 2-year yield. pic.twitter.com/yVJwWiepri | 10-year yield rebounding faster than the 2-year yield. pic.twitter.com/yVJwWiepri |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 5.55pm BST | at 5.55pm BST |
| 5.31pm BST | 5.31pm BST |
| 17:31 | 17:31 |
| And with the jobs data pushing back the estimates of when the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, here’s the effect on currencies: | And with the jobs data pushing back the estimates of when the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, here’s the effect on currencies: |
| FX update: #EURUSD 1.1257 +0.55% #GBPUSD 1.5209 +0.51% #USDJPY 119.65 -0.23% #AUDUSD 0.7027 -0.06% #EURGBP 0.7402 +0.05% | FX update: #EURUSD 1.1257 +0.55% #GBPUSD 1.5209 +0.51% #USDJPY 119.65 -0.23% #AUDUSD 0.7027 -0.06% #EURGBP 0.7402 +0.05% |
| 5.18pm BST | 5.18pm BST |
| 17:18 | 17:18 |
| Markets recover some ground after US jobs shock | Markets recover some ground after US jobs shock |
| It was a rollercoaster day for investors, with early market gains wiped out after the worse than expected US non-farm payroll numbers, but an attempted recovery by the time European markets closed. | It was a rollercoaster day for investors, with early market gains wiped out after the worse than expected US non-farm payroll numbers, but an attempted recovery by the time European markets closed. |
| Traders said that, after the initial jobs report suggested the US economy was much weaker than feared, there was a revival of sorts on the basis that the Federal Reserve was now unlikely to raise interest rates this year. The final scores showed: | Traders said that, after the initial jobs report suggested the US economy was much weaker than feared, there was a revival of sorts on the basis that the Federal Reserve was now unlikely to raise interest rates this year. The final scores showed: |
| On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average - which lost nearly 260 points after the jobs data - is now down just 29 points or 0.18%. | On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average - which lost nearly 260 points after the jobs data - is now down just 29 points or 0.18%. |
| 4.47pm BST | 4.47pm BST |
| 16:47 | 16:47 |
| Markets have recovered some of the immediate losses after the US jobs data: | Markets have recovered some of the immediate losses after the US jobs data: |
| Some of the post-NFP moves are fading slightly, with US stocks recovering, #EURUSD fading back below 1.13 and #USDJPY back up to 119.30 ^MW | Some of the post-NFP moves are fading slightly, with US stocks recovering, #EURUSD fading back below 1.13 and #USDJPY back up to 119.30 ^MW |
| 4.45pm BST | 4.45pm BST |
| 16:45 | 16:45 |
| Good news for Spain. Standard & Poor’s has raised the country’s sovereign credit rating from BBB to BBB+ with a stable outlook. | Good news for Spain. Standard & Poor’s has raised the country’s sovereign credit rating from BBB to BBB+ with a stable outlook. |
| It said it now projected Spain’s nominal GDP to grow at about 4% over the next few years and said a broad based economic recovery and budgetary consolidation should balance the risks from its large net external debt. | It said it now projected Spain’s nominal GDP to grow at about 4% over the next few years and said a broad based economic recovery and budgetary consolidation should balance the risks from its large net external debt. |
| But it warned that Spain’s creditworthiness would weaken if Catalonia were no longer part of the country. Over the weekend separatists took control of Catalonia’s regional government. | But it warned that Spain’s creditworthiness would weaken if Catalonia were no longer part of the country. Over the weekend separatists took control of Catalonia’s regional government. |
| 4.27pm BST | 4.27pm BST |
| 16:27 | 16:27 |
| Over to the Greek situation for a moment, and ahead of a Eurogroup meeting on Monday, junior ministers have been working on the list of bailout measures Greece must take in return for its next loan payment: | Over to the Greek situation for a moment, and ahead of a Eurogroup meeting on Monday, junior ministers have been working on the list of bailout measures Greece must take in return for its next loan payment: |
| #Eurogroup Working Group: #Greece asked to complete 48 milestones by mid-October in order to comply with bailout conditions ~BBG | #Eurogroup Working Group: #Greece asked to complete 48 milestones by mid-October in order to comply with bailout conditions ~BBG |
| 3.42pm BST | 3.42pm BST |
| 15:42 | 15:42 |
| Markets would benefit from the Fed getting a rate rise out of the way, says Julian Jessop at Capital Economics: | Markets would benefit from the Fed getting a rate rise out of the way, says Julian Jessop at Capital Economics: |
| The disappointing US jobs report for September will clearly do little to improve investor confidence in the global economy. Yes, it will probably delay the first interest rate hike from the Fed until early next year. However, our view remains that the prices of equities, other emerging market assets and industrial commodities would benefit more from the lifting of uncertainty once lift-off does finally take place. In the meantime, the few winners include safe-haven bonds – and gold. | The disappointing US jobs report for September will clearly do little to improve investor confidence in the global economy. Yes, it will probably delay the first interest rate hike from the Fed until early next year. However, our view remains that the prices of equities, other emerging market assets and industrial commodities would benefit more from the lifting of uncertainty once lift-off does finally take place. In the meantime, the few winners include safe-haven bonds – and gold. |
| 3.25pm BST | 3.25pm BST |
| 15:25 | 15:25 |
| On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is off its lows but still down more than 1% on the day so far. | On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is off its lows but still down more than 1% on the day so far. |
| 3.05pm BST | 3.05pm BST |
| 15:05 | 15:05 |
| It never rains, it pours... I can't find any silver lining in this US data | It never rains, it pours... I can't find any silver lining in this US data |
| #US factory orders -1.7% on month in Aug. #US economic picture has been hammered this afternoon. #Fed Dec hike probability down to 28% (bbg) | #US factory orders -1.7% on month in Aug. #US economic picture has been hammered this afternoon. #Fed Dec hike probability down to 28% (bbg) |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.09pm BST | at 3.09pm BST |
| 3.02pm BST | 3.02pm BST |
| 15:02 | 15:02 |
| US factory orders fall | US factory orders fall |
| And those US factory orders have also disappointed. | And those US factory orders have also disappointed. |
| New orders fell 1.7% in August, compared to expectations of a 1.3% decline. July’s rise of 0.4% has also been revised downwards to an increase of 0.2%. | New orders fell 1.7% in August, compared to expectations of a 1.3% decline. July’s rise of 0.4% has also been revised downwards to an increase of 0.2%. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.05pm BST | at 3.05pm BST |
| 2.57pm BST | 2.57pm BST |
| 14:57 | 14:57 |
| More disappointing economic news from the US. | More disappointing economic news from the US. |
| Business activity in New York contracted for the first time in eight months in September, with the Institute for Supply Management’s index falling from 51.1 in August to 44.5. | Business activity in New York contracted for the first time in eight months in September, with the Institute for Supply Management’s index falling from 51.1 in August to 44.5. |
| NY ISM, joins Empire Fed, Philly Fed, Richmond, etccc Do you really want to see Factory Orders in 15 mins? https://t.co/qsHFzfncwZ | NY ISM, joins Empire Fed, Philly Fed, Richmond, etccc Do you really want to see Factory Orders in 15 mins? https://t.co/qsHFzfncwZ |
| 2.45pm BST | 2.45pm BST |
| 14:45 | 14:45 |
| A weak US economy - as evidenced by the weak job numbers - will also hit emerging market exporters. Sanjiv Shah at emerging markets specialist Sun Global Investments said: | A weak US economy - as evidenced by the weak job numbers - will also hit emerging market exporters. Sanjiv Shah at emerging markets specialist Sun Global Investments said: |
| The weaker than expected NFP data today suggests that the US Economy, which is the largest export market for many EM countries, is slowing down much more than was previously expected. | The weaker than expected NFP data today suggests that the US Economy, which is the largest export market for many EM countries, is slowing down much more than was previously expected. |
| These numbers probably rule out a Fed interest rate increase for the rest of 2015 and, indeed, we worry that the Fed’s decision not to raise interest rates earlier this month was a missed opportunity. | These numbers probably rule out a Fed interest rate increase for the rest of 2015 and, indeed, we worry that the Fed’s decision not to raise interest rates earlier this month was a missed opportunity. |
| It is without doubt that a weak US economy will negatively affect EM exporters but we expect lower bond yields to help EM bonds and EM equities. | It is without doubt that a weak US economy will negatively affect EM exporters but we expect lower bond yields to help EM bonds and EM equities. |
| 2.43pm BST | 2.43pm BST |
| 14:43 | 14:43 |
| If a rate rise in October is pretty much off the table, some analysts do believe a move higher in December is still possible. Dr Harm Bandholz, chief US economist at UniCredit Research said: | If a rate rise in October is pretty much off the table, some analysts do believe a move higher in December is still possible. Dr Harm Bandholz, chief US economist at UniCredit Research said: |
| Today’s employment report has most likely removed even the last small chance for a rate hike as early as this month. | Today’s employment report has most likely removed even the last small chance for a rate hike as early as this month. |
| But we continue to expect the first move at the mid-December meeting. Various Federal Reserve Open Market Committee members have over the past couple of weeks verbally teed up for a rate hike this year. The latest being Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who said in a TV interview this morning (admittedly before the employment report) that “raising rates in 2015 is a ‘reasonable forecast’”. What makes his statement so important is that he is one of the more dovish FOMC members. | But we continue to expect the first move at the mid-December meeting. Various Federal Reserve Open Market Committee members have over the past couple of weeks verbally teed up for a rate hike this year. The latest being Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who said in a TV interview this morning (admittedly before the employment report) that “raising rates in 2015 is a ‘reasonable forecast’”. What makes his statement so important is that he is one of the more dovish FOMC members. |
| Yesterday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams (centrist FOMC member and a voter this year) said that the decision to not raise rates in September was “a very close call”, which means that “it doesn’t take a lot of information to tip the balance.” Mr. Williams added that job gains of “above 100,000 or 150,000 would be good to me”, as the slower pace of job gains was “just a sign that the labor market was closer to being completely healed.” | Yesterday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams (centrist FOMC member and a voter this year) said that the decision to not raise rates in September was “a very close call”, which means that “it doesn’t take a lot of information to tip the balance.” Mr. Williams added that job gains of “above 100,000 or 150,000 would be good to me”, as the slower pace of job gains was “just a sign that the labor market was closer to being completely healed.” |
| Along the same lines Chair Yellen acknowledged last week that “the labor market has achieved considerable progress over the past several years.” In other words: The Fed is very pleased with the development of the labor market, and we doubt that two weaker months will alter this assessment. Before the December FOMC meeting we will be getting two more employment reports. In addition to possible upward revisions to the past numbers, they will likely show again faster job gains and an unemployment rate of 5.0% - or less. That, in turn would be good enough for the Fed to finally pull the trigger. | Along the same lines Chair Yellen acknowledged last week that “the labor market has achieved considerable progress over the past several years.” In other words: The Fed is very pleased with the development of the labor market, and we doubt that two weaker months will alter this assessment. Before the December FOMC meeting we will be getting two more employment reports. In addition to possible upward revisions to the past numbers, they will likely show again faster job gains and an unemployment rate of 5.0% - or less. That, in turn would be good enough for the Fed to finally pull the trigger. |