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| UK economic growth slows to 0.5% - live updates | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 10.04am GMT10:04 | |
| Britain’s March of the Makers has been shunted off course by the problems in developing markets, explains Jeremy Cook of foreign exchange firm World First. | |
| Instead, we have a “Stroll of the Shoppers”, he says: | |
| “Manufacturing has been damaged in the UK by a strong pound and weakness in crucial export markets as a result of fears of a hard landing in China.” | |
| 10.01am GMT10:01 | |
| UK GDP: the key charts | |
| The good news is that Britain’s economy has now expanded for 11 quarters in a row. | |
| And unless Germany posts a stellar quarter, the UK is still the third-best performing major economy since 2008. | |
| 9.56am GMT09:56 | |
| Britain’s service sector is now more than 10% bigger than in 2008, before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. | |
| But as this chart from the ONS shows, the other sectors are still lagging. | |
| The ONS explains: | |
| The construction and production industries were more acutely affected by the deterioration in economic conditions. Following the downturn, the services industries generally grew steadily, albeit slowly, with output exceeding its pre-downturn peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2012. | |
| Production and construction activity began to grow in 2010 - with manufacturing showing particular strength – but neither industry sustained this growth. | |
| Updated at 9.59am GMT | |
| 9.48am GMT09:48 | |
| The pound has fallen around 0.15% against the US dollar, to $1.5324. | |
| Traders are concluding that weaker growth means British interest rates will remain at their current record low for some time yet. | |
| 9.43am GMT09:43 | |
| Osborne: We face global risks | |
| The chancellor has tweeted about the GDP report: | |
| GDP is 0.5%. UK continues to outperform other major economies. But global risks mean we go on with tough decisions to live within our means | |
| We don’t actually know how other major economies performed in the last quarter* (we get the US GDP on Thursday, and eurozone data next month). | |
| And that reference to ‘tough decisions’ is a nod to the tax credits debacle. | |
| * - apart from China, which reported annual growth of 6.9% last week | |
| Updated at 9.50am GMT | |
| 9.39am GMT09:39 | |
| Britain’s service sector provided most of the growth in the last quarter: | |
| 9.36am GMT09:36 | |
| More gloom for Osborne as growth in the economy slows to 0.5% in three months to Sept. | |
| 9.36am GMT09:36 | |
| This is not good news for George Osborne, Britain’s finance minister. | |
| Not only has growth slowed, but there’s no sign of his famous March of the Makers. The economy looks as unbalanced as ever, given the contraction in manufacturing. | |
| Further bad news for @George_Osborne: U.K. Quarterly GDP growth drops from 0.7% in Q2 to 0.5% in Q3. | |
| 9.35am GMT09:35 | |
| More bad news -- Britain’s manufacturing sector contracted by 0.3% during the last quarter. | |
| 9.33am GMT09:33 | |
| Service sector grows strongly but construction slumps | |
| Britain’s service sector was the fastest growing part of the UK economy in the last quarter, while the building sector suffered a sharp, and worrying, contraction. | |
| Here’s the detail: | |
| 9.30am GMT09:30 | |
| UK growth slows to 0.5% | |
| Breaking! The UK economy grew by just 0.5% in the third quarter of 2015, down from 0.7% three months earlier. | |
| The Office for National Statistics is releasing full details right now..... | |
| 9.29am GMT09:29 | 9.29am GMT09:29 |
| This is your one minute warning.... | This is your one minute warning.... |
| 9.27am GMT09:27 | 9.27am GMT09:27 |
| Make that three economists... | Make that three economists... |
| @mhewson_CMC weak construction output and soft summer labour market prints mean I have 0.5%. Agree 0.6% looks a bit much... | @mhewson_CMC weak construction output and soft summer labour market prints mean I have 0.5%. Agree 0.6% looks a bit much... |
| 9.22am GMT09:22 | 9.22am GMT09:22 |
| UK Q3 GDP out in 10 mins - anyone think that 0.6% expectation is slightly optimistic? #gbp | UK Q3 GDP out in 10 mins - anyone think that 0.6% expectation is slightly optimistic? #gbp |
| Yes - two economists quoted in this blog already :) | Yes - two economists quoted in this blog already :) |
| 9.19am GMT09:19 | 9.19am GMT09:19 |
| Tension is building in the City, as investors wait to see whether Britain’s growth slowed in the last three months.... | Tension is building in the City, as investors wait to see whether Britain’s growth slowed in the last three months.... |
| Right UK GDP in 13 minutes. Heads UP!!!! | Right UK GDP in 13 minutes. Heads UP!!!! |
| First look at UK GDP in Q3 due 09.30am. Est 0.6% QoQ (vs 0.7% prev) Est 2.4% YoY (unch) BoE's forecast for Q3 is 0.7% QoQ | First look at UK GDP in Q3 due 09.30am. Est 0.6% QoQ (vs 0.7% prev) Est 2.4% YoY (unch) BoE's forecast for Q3 is 0.7% QoQ |
| 9.17am GMT09:17 | 9.17am GMT09:17 |
| It’s worth remembering that the current recovery has been the slowest from any recession in the last 100 years. | It’s worth remembering that the current recovery has been the slowest from any recession in the last 100 years. |
| This is particularly stark if you look at GDP per head, as the TUC did in August: | This is particularly stark if you look at GDP per head, as the TUC did in August: |
| But Britain has also grown faster than many rivals over the last five years, with Europe hit by the eurozone crisis and Japan weighed down by its huge national debt and persistent deflation. | But Britain has also grown faster than many rivals over the last five years, with Europe hit by the eurozone crisis and Japan weighed down by its huge national debt and persistent deflation. |
| #GDP figures, due today, will give some pause for doubt over the #UK's growth #econespresso pic.twitter.com/sV4TOjQU5I | #GDP figures, due today, will give some pause for doubt over the #UK's growth #econespresso pic.twitter.com/sV4TOjQU5I |
| 8.50am GMT08:50 | 8.50am GMT08:50 |
| Today’s growth figures may raise the spectre that Britain’s economy becomes increasingly unbalanced next year. | Today’s growth figures may raise the spectre that Britain’s economy becomes increasingly unbalanced next year. |
| Jeremy Cook of foreign exchange firm World First explains how service sector companies have outpaced their rivals recently: | Jeremy Cook of foreign exchange firm World First explains how service sector companies have outpaced their rivals recently: |
| Industrial numbers have remained weak through Q3 but consumption has remained strong, although we did see a temporary blip midway through the quarter. Exports are said to be more difficult given the strength of the pound and the weakness in crucial export markets. | Industrial numbers have remained weak through Q3 but consumption has remained strong, although we did see a temporary blip midway through the quarter. Exports are said to be more difficult given the strength of the pound and the weakness in crucial export markets. |
| As we get ready for Halloween, we think that today’s number is unlikely to send market observers scurrying behind the sofa but may give new voice to concerns around the imbalances in growth moving into 2016. | As we get ready for Halloween, we think that today’s number is unlikely to send market observers scurrying behind the sofa but may give new voice to concerns around the imbalances in growth moving into 2016. |
| World First Morning Update October 27th - UK GDP set to show slight slowing - https://t.co/FRrv01UVKa | World First Morning Update October 27th - UK GDP set to show slight slowing - https://t.co/FRrv01UVKa |
| 8.37am GMT08:37 | 8.37am GMT08:37 |
| Robert Wood, chief UK economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, also predicts that growth slowed to 0.5% in the last three months. | Robert Wood, chief UK economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, also predicts that growth slowed to 0.5% in the last three months. |
| He just told Bloomberg TV that he expects today’s GDP figure to be weaker than three month ago because UK manufacturing was weak last quarter. And that’s because the global economy was weaker. | He just told Bloomberg TV that he expects today’s GDP figure to be weaker than three month ago because UK manufacturing was weak last quarter. And that’s because the global economy was weaker. |
| Wood believes that “strong domestic demand” will continue to drive UK growth, with real wages now rising at around 3%. | Wood believes that “strong domestic demand” will continue to drive UK growth, with real wages now rising at around 3%. |
| Updated at 8.37am GMT | Updated at 8.37am GMT |
| 8.31am GMT08:31 | 8.31am GMT08:31 |
| My colleague Katie Allen has rounded up the key charts that show the state of the UK economy, setting the scene for today’s growth figures. | My colleague Katie Allen has rounded up the key charts that show the state of the UK economy, setting the scene for today’s growth figures. |
| It includes this one, showing how the construction sector has struggled in recent months: | It includes this one, showing how the construction sector has struggled in recent months: |
| Katie explains: | Katie explains: |
| Like manufacturing, the construction sector – which accounts for about 6% of the economy – is unlikely to have contributed to overall economic growth in the third quarter. | Like manufacturing, the construction sector – which accounts for about 6% of the economy – is unlikely to have contributed to overall economic growth in the third quarter. |
| Construction experienced sharp drops in output in July and August and it seems unlikely that September saw enough of a rebound to make up for that slow summer. | Construction experienced sharp drops in output in July and August and it seems unlikely that September saw enough of a rebound to make up for that slow summer. |
| More here: | More here: |
| Related: GDP: UK economy in five charts | Related: GDP: UK economy in five charts |
| 8.18am GMT08:18 | 8.18am GMT08:18 |
| Mikael Olai Milhøj of Denmark’s Danske Bank, reckons that UK growth slowed to 0.5% in the last quarter, down from 0.7% in Q2. | Mikael Olai Milhøj of Denmark’s Danske Bank, reckons that UK growth slowed to 0.5% in the last quarter, down from 0.7% in Q2. |
| He points out that construction and manufacturing surveys over the summer were disappointing. He predicts that construction will have knocked 0.1% off today’s growth number, while manufacturing will have been flat. | He points out that construction and manufacturing surveys over the summer were disappointing. He predicts that construction will have knocked 0.1% off today’s growth number, while manufacturing will have been flat. |
| That leaves us depending on the service sector once again..... | That leaves us depending on the service sector once again..... |
| Some charts on the #UK business cycle. We think growth slowed to 0.5%q/q in Q3, still service-driven https://t.co/uTsT4y9ExY $eurgbp $usdgbp | Some charts on the #UK business cycle. We think growth slowed to 0.5%q/q in Q3, still service-driven https://t.co/uTsT4y9ExY $eurgbp $usdgbp |
| 8.17am GMT08:17 | 8.17am GMT08:17 |
| Reuters polled 59 City economists about today’s GDP figures. Estimates ranged from growth of just +0.3% up to +0.8%, leading to an average prediction of +0.6%. | Reuters polled 59 City economists about today’s GDP figures. Estimates ranged from growth of just +0.3% up to +0.8%, leading to an average prediction of +0.6%. |
| The City hasn’t done too badly at guessing GDP recently - although it had a shocker a few years ago when the economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.5% in Q4 2010.... | The City hasn’t done too badly at guessing GDP recently - although it had a shocker a few years ago when the economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.5% in Q4 2010.... |
| Updated at 8.23am GMT | Updated at 8.23am GMT |
| 7.53am GMT07:53 | 7.53am GMT07:53 |
| The Agenda: It's UK GDP Day | The Agenda: It's UK GDP Day |
| Good morning. | Good morning. |
| We’re kicking off a busy few days for the global economy with live coverage of the latest UK growth figures. | We’re kicking off a busy few days for the global economy with live coverage of the latest UK growth figures. |
| Today’s GDP figures, released on the dot of 9.30am GMT, will provide the first official snapshot of how the economy performed between July and September. | Today’s GDP figures, released on the dot of 9.30am GMT, will provide the first official snapshot of how the economy performed between July and September. |
| Economists predict that growth slowed, to a quarterly rate of around 0.6% from 0.7% in the second quarter. | Economists predict that growth slowed, to a quarterly rate of around 0.6% from 0.7% in the second quarter. |
| That’s due to chillier winds from the global economy, with UK exporters suffering from weaker demand from overseas. But there have also been signs that the UK domestic economy has lost some momentum this summer, particularly in the construction sector. | That’s due to chillier winds from the global economy, with UK exporters suffering from weaker demand from overseas. But there have also been signs that the UK domestic economy has lost some momentum this summer, particularly in the construction sector. |
| A weak GDP reading would fuel concerns that the recovery is faltering; another headache for chancellor George Osborne, a day after the House of Lords voted to delay his controversial tax credit cuts. | A weak GDP reading would fuel concerns that the recovery is faltering; another headache for chancellor George Osborne, a day after the House of Lords voted to delay his controversial tax credit cuts. |
| But stronger growth would raise the chances that the Bank of England raises interest rates sooner rather than later. | But stronger growth would raise the chances that the Bank of England raises interest rates sooner rather than later. |
| Three months ago, the UK economy finally exceeded its pre-crisis level on a per-capita basis (ie, economic power adjusted for population changes), nearly seven year after the financial crisis struck. | Three months ago, the UK economy finally exceeded its pre-crisis level on a per-capita basis (ie, economic power adjusted for population changes), nearly seven year after the financial crisis struck. |
| But Britain’s dominant service sector is the only part of the economy that’s actually bigger than in 2008 - manufacturing, construction and agriculture are still playing catch-up: | But Britain’s dominant service sector is the only part of the economy that’s actually bigger than in 2008 - manufacturing, construction and agriculture are still playing catch-up: |
| Britain is Europe’s second largest economy, so today’s growth figures have international significance at a crucial time for the world economy. Last week, China reported that its growth had slowed, raising fears over the global economic outlook. | Britain is Europe’s second largest economy, so today’s growth figures have international significance at a crucial time for the world economy. Last week, China reported that its growth had slowed, raising fears over the global economic outlook. |
| That will occupy the attention of the US Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, which begins a two-day policy meeting today. They’re likely to leave borrowing costs at their record lows yet again. | That will occupy the attention of the US Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, which begins a two-day policy meeting today. They’re likely to leave borrowing costs at their record lows yet again. |
| On Thursday, we find out how the US economy performed in the third quarter. Economists predict that quarterly growth slowed to below 0.4%, from above 0.5%. | On Thursday, we find out how the US economy performed in the third quarter. Economists predict that quarterly growth slowed to below 0.4%, from above 0.5%. |
| And on Friday, the Japanese central bank will issue new economic projections. With Japan’s economy faltering too, it could soon be forced into fresh stimulus measures.... | And on Friday, the Japanese central bank will issue new economic projections. With Japan’s economy faltering too, it could soon be forced into fresh stimulus measures.... |
| Updated at 8.00am GMT | Updated at 8.00am GMT |