This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/oct/27/uk-gdp-growth-figures-george-osborne-live-updates

The article has changed 23 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 5 Version 6
UK economic growth slows to 0.5% - live updates UK economic growth slows to 0.5% - live updates
(35 minutes later)
11.40am GMT11:40
UK economy 'at risk' unless manufacturing and construction pick up
The UK economy is now almost entirely reliant on services for growth, says Kallum Pickering, UK economist at German bank Berenberg.
Pickering is worried that both manufacturing and construction shrunk in the last quarter, and argues that structural reforms and fresh investment are needed to provide growth:
In the construction industry, firms are experiencing increased costs pressures coming from labour and materials shortages. For production: It’s biggest component, manufacturing, not only suffers from weakness in global trade, but, more precisely, a lack of investment and a lack of willingness of firms to base production in the UK.
This stems from, among other things, a chronic uncertainty in the UK’s future energy supplies due to lack of investment in energy capacity. Taken together, this implies that if a decline in UK services were to take place, the UK economy would be vulnerable.
10.58am GMT10:5810.58am GMT10:58
TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady has rebuked George Osborne for failing to provide enough help to the manufacturing sector, and working people generally:TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady has rebuked George Osborne for failing to provide enough help to the manufacturing sector, and working people generally:
“We need better balanced growth that delivers secure opportunities for working families. But while the economy is still expanding, the recovery is too weak, and Britain’s manufacturing industry remains in decline. What’s more, the government’s failure to protect our steel industry looks set to mean the loss of even more manufacturing jobs.“We need better balanced growth that delivers secure opportunities for working families. But while the economy is still expanding, the recovery is too weak, and Britain’s manufacturing industry remains in decline. What’s more, the government’s failure to protect our steel industry looks set to mean the loss of even more manufacturing jobs.
“We need a proper industrial strategy to ensure our manufacturing industry keeps up with the rest of the world. And the Chancellor must invest more to boost demand rather than cutting the public services and tax credits which are vital to supporting working families.”“We need a proper industrial strategy to ensure our manufacturing industry keeps up with the rest of the world. And the Chancellor must invest more to boost demand rather than cutting the public services and tax credits which are vital to supporting working families.”
10.42am GMT10:4210.42am GMT10:42
This fascinating chart from Royal Bank of Scotland shows which areas of UK manufacturing performed particularly badly in the last three months.This fascinating chart from Royal Bank of Scotland shows which areas of UK manufacturing performed particularly badly in the last three months.
Top 10 worst performing sectors in Q3. Iron and steel struggling but coal mining collapses. pic.twitter.com/H7xIjCtV9sTop 10 worst performing sectors in Q3. Iron and steel struggling but coal mining collapses. pic.twitter.com/H7xIjCtV9s
(this is taken from today’s dataset, online here)(this is taken from today’s dataset, online here)
10.40am GMT10:4010.40am GMT10:40
Britain’s manufacturing industry is stuck in recession, having contracted by 0.3% in the last three months and 0.5% in the second quarter of the year.Britain’s manufacturing industry is stuck in recession, having contracted by 0.3% in the last three months and 0.5% in the second quarter of the year.
Zach Witton, deputy chief economist at EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation, says that the UK metals industry has been hammered particularly hard:Zach Witton, deputy chief economist at EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation, says that the UK metals industry has been hammered particularly hard:
“Growth was partly dragged back due to manufacturing remaining in recession.“Growth was partly dragged back due to manufacturing remaining in recession.
The weakness was broad based across the sector as recent challenges have been exacerbated by the sharp contraction in iron and steel and, signs of slower demand from the consumer sector.The weakness was broad based across the sector as recent challenges have been exacerbated by the sharp contraction in iron and steel and, signs of slower demand from the consumer sector.
Updated at 10.40am GMTUpdated at 10.40am GMT
10.22am GMT10:2210.22am GMT10:22
Britain’s iron and steel-making industry suffered a torrid quarter, shrinking by 7%, according to Sky’s Ed Conway:Britain’s iron and steel-making industry suffered a torrid quarter, shrinking by 7%, according to Sky’s Ed Conway:
"Basic iron & steel production" one of the fastest shrinking sectors of the economy in Q3. Down by 7% in quarter. Down 9% in past year"Basic iron & steel production" one of the fastest shrinking sectors of the economy in Q3. Down by 7% in quarter. Down 9% in past year
Thousands of jobs are already being cut in the industry, which faces oversupply and faltering demand in emerging markets.Thousands of jobs are already being cut in the industry, which faces oversupply and faltering demand in emerging markets.
Updated at 10.25am GMTUpdated at 10.25am GMT
10.13am GMT10:1310.13am GMT10:13
Alex Edwards, currency analyst at UKForex, explains why the pound fell once the UK growth figures were released:Alex Edwards, currency analyst at UKForex, explains why the pound fell once the UK growth figures were released:
Although the services component of the data was positive, the result will go some way to supporting arguments for the Bank of England to leave interest rates on hold for longer.Although the services component of the data was positive, the result will go some way to supporting arguments for the Bank of England to leave interest rates on hold for longer.
If the US Federal Reserve is also dovish in its statement tomorrow, it could raise the possibility that we won’t see a UK rate hike until very late next year.If the US Federal Reserve is also dovish in its statement tomorrow, it could raise the possibility that we won’t see a UK rate hike until very late next year.
10.06am GMT10:0610.06am GMT10:06
Ben Brettell, senior economist at financial services firm Hargreaves Lansdown, is worried that the UK economy is becoming more unbalanced.Ben Brettell, senior economist at financial services firm Hargreaves Lansdown, is worried that the UK economy is becoming more unbalanced.
The signs have been there for some time - the UK economy has been losing momentum.....The signs have been there for some time - the UK economy has been losing momentum.....
Weaker construction and manufacturing output are the primary reasons for the slowdown, which could prompt concerns that the UK economy’s reliance on the services sector is increasing further.Weaker construction and manufacturing output are the primary reasons for the slowdown, which could prompt concerns that the UK economy’s reliance on the services sector is increasing further.
10.04am GMT10:0410.04am GMT10:04
Britain’s March of the Makers has been shunted off course by the problems in developing markets, explains Jeremy Cook of foreign exchange firm World First.Britain’s March of the Makers has been shunted off course by the problems in developing markets, explains Jeremy Cook of foreign exchange firm World First.
Instead, we have a “Stroll of the Shoppers”, he says:Instead, we have a “Stroll of the Shoppers”, he says:
“Manufacturing has been damaged in the UK by a strong pound and weakness in crucial export markets as a result of fears of a hard landing in China.”“Manufacturing has been damaged in the UK by a strong pound and weakness in crucial export markets as a result of fears of a hard landing in China.”
Updated at 10.07am GMTUpdated at 10.07am GMT
10.01am GMT10:0110.01am GMT10:01
UK GDP: the key chartsUK GDP: the key charts
The good news is that Britain’s economy has now expanded for 11 quarters in a row.The good news is that Britain’s economy has now expanded for 11 quarters in a row.
And unless Germany posts a stellar quarter, the UK is still the third-best performing major economy since 2008.And unless Germany posts a stellar quarter, the UK is still the third-best performing major economy since 2008.
Updated at 10.08am GMTUpdated at 10.08am GMT
9.56am GMT09:569.56am GMT09:56
Britain’s service sector is now more than 10% bigger than in 2008, before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.Britain’s service sector is now more than 10% bigger than in 2008, before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
But as this chart from the ONS shows, the other sectors are still lagging.But as this chart from the ONS shows, the other sectors are still lagging.
The ONS explains:The ONS explains:
The construction and production industries were more acutely affected by the deterioration in economic conditions. Following the downturn, the services industries generally grew steadily, albeit slowly, with output exceeding its pre-downturn peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2012.The construction and production industries were more acutely affected by the deterioration in economic conditions. Following the downturn, the services industries generally grew steadily, albeit slowly, with output exceeding its pre-downturn peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2012.
Production and construction activity began to grow in 2010 - with manufacturing showing particular strength – but neither industry sustained this growth.Production and construction activity began to grow in 2010 - with manufacturing showing particular strength – but neither industry sustained this growth.
Updated at 10.08am GMTUpdated at 10.08am GMT
9.48am GMT09:489.48am GMT09:48
The pound has fallen around 0.15% against the US dollar, to $1.5324.The pound has fallen around 0.15% against the US dollar, to $1.5324.
Traders are concluding that weaker growth means British interest rates will remain at their current record low for some time yet.Traders are concluding that weaker growth means British interest rates will remain at their current record low for some time yet.
9.43am GMT09:439.43am GMT09:43
Osborne: We face global risksOsborne: We face global risks
The chancellor has tweeted about the GDP report:The chancellor has tweeted about the GDP report:
GDP is 0.5%. UK continues to outperform other major economies. But global risks mean we go on with tough decisions to live within our meansGDP is 0.5%. UK continues to outperform other major economies. But global risks mean we go on with tough decisions to live within our means
We don’t actually know how other major economies performed in the last quarter* (we get the US GDP on Thursday, and eurozone data next month).We don’t actually know how other major economies performed in the last quarter* (we get the US GDP on Thursday, and eurozone data next month).
And that reference to ‘tough decisions’ is a nod to the tax credits debacle.And that reference to ‘tough decisions’ is a nod to the tax credits debacle.
* - apart from China, which reported annual growth of 6.9% last week* - apart from China, which reported annual growth of 6.9% last week
Updated at 9.50am GMTUpdated at 9.50am GMT
9.39am GMT09:399.39am GMT09:39
Britain’s service sector provided most of the growth in the last quarter:Britain’s service sector provided most of the growth in the last quarter:
9.36am GMT09:369.36am GMT09:36
More gloom for Osborne as growth in the economy slows to 0.5% in three months to Sept.More gloom for Osborne as growth in the economy slows to 0.5% in three months to Sept.
9.36am GMT09:369.36am GMT09:36
This is not good news for George Osborne, Britain’s finance minister.This is not good news for George Osborne, Britain’s finance minister.
Not only has growth slowed, but there’s no sign of his famous March of the Makers. The economy looks as unbalanced as ever, given the contraction in manufacturing.Not only has growth slowed, but there’s no sign of his famous March of the Makers. The economy looks as unbalanced as ever, given the contraction in manufacturing.
Further bad news for @George_Osborne: U.K. Quarterly GDP growth drops from 0.7% in Q2 to 0.5% in Q3.Further bad news for @George_Osborne: U.K. Quarterly GDP growth drops from 0.7% in Q2 to 0.5% in Q3.
9.35am GMT09:359.35am GMT09:35
More bad news -- Britain’s manufacturing sector contracted by 0.3% during the last quarter.More bad news -- Britain’s manufacturing sector contracted by 0.3% during the last quarter.
9.33am GMT09:339.33am GMT09:33
Service sector grows strongly but construction slumpsService sector grows strongly but construction slumps
Britain’s service sector was the fastest growing part of the UK economy in the last quarter, while the building sector suffered a sharp, and worrying, contraction.Britain’s service sector was the fastest growing part of the UK economy in the last quarter, while the building sector suffered a sharp, and worrying, contraction.
Here’s the detail:Here’s the detail:
9.30am GMT09:309.30am GMT09:30
UK growth slows to 0.5%UK growth slows to 0.5%
Breaking! The UK economy grew by just 0.5% in the third quarter of 2015, down from 0.7% three months earlier.Breaking! The UK economy grew by just 0.5% in the third quarter of 2015, down from 0.7% three months earlier.
The Office for National Statistics is releasing full details right now.....The Office for National Statistics is releasing full details right now.....
9.29am GMT09:299.29am GMT09:29
This is your one minute warning....This is your one minute warning....
9.27am GMT09:279.27am GMT09:27
Make that three economists...Make that three economists...
@mhewson_CMC weak construction output and soft summer labour market prints mean I have 0.5%. Agree 0.6% looks a bit much...@mhewson_CMC weak construction output and soft summer labour market prints mean I have 0.5%. Agree 0.6% looks a bit much...
9.22am GMT09:229.22am GMT09:22
UK Q3 GDP out in 10 mins - anyone think that 0.6% expectation is slightly optimistic? #gbpUK Q3 GDP out in 10 mins - anyone think that 0.6% expectation is slightly optimistic? #gbp
Yes - two economists quoted in this blog already :)Yes - two economists quoted in this blog already :)
9.19am GMT09:199.19am GMT09:19
Tension is building in the City, as investors wait to see whether Britain’s growth slowed in the last three months....Tension is building in the City, as investors wait to see whether Britain’s growth slowed in the last three months....
Right UK GDP in 13 minutes. Heads UP!!!!Right UK GDP in 13 minutes. Heads UP!!!!
First look at UK GDP in Q3 due 09.30am. Est 0.6% QoQ (vs 0.7% prev) Est 2.4% YoY (unch) BoE's forecast for Q3 is 0.7% QoQFirst look at UK GDP in Q3 due 09.30am. Est 0.6% QoQ (vs 0.7% prev) Est 2.4% YoY (unch) BoE's forecast for Q3 is 0.7% QoQ
9.17am GMT09:179.17am GMT09:17
It’s worth remembering that the current recovery has been the slowest from any recession in the last 100 years.It’s worth remembering that the current recovery has been the slowest from any recession in the last 100 years.
This is particularly stark if you look at GDP per head, as the TUC did in August:This is particularly stark if you look at GDP per head, as the TUC did in August:
But Britain has also grown faster than many rivals over the last five years, with Europe hit by the eurozone crisis and Japan weighed down by its huge national debt and persistent deflation.But Britain has also grown faster than many rivals over the last five years, with Europe hit by the eurozone crisis and Japan weighed down by its huge national debt and persistent deflation.
#GDP figures, due today, will give some pause for doubt over the #UK's growth #econespresso pic.twitter.com/sV4TOjQU5I#GDP figures, due today, will give some pause for doubt over the #UK's growth #econespresso pic.twitter.com/sV4TOjQU5I
8.50am GMT08:508.50am GMT08:50
Today’s growth figures may raise the spectre that Britain’s economy becomes increasingly unbalanced next year.Today’s growth figures may raise the spectre that Britain’s economy becomes increasingly unbalanced next year.
Jeremy Cook of foreign exchange firm World First explains how service sector companies have outpaced their rivals recently:Jeremy Cook of foreign exchange firm World First explains how service sector companies have outpaced their rivals recently:
Industrial numbers have remained weak through Q3 but consumption has remained strong, although we did see a temporary blip midway through the quarter. Exports are said to be more difficult given the strength of the pound and the weakness in crucial export markets.Industrial numbers have remained weak through Q3 but consumption has remained strong, although we did see a temporary blip midway through the quarter. Exports are said to be more difficult given the strength of the pound and the weakness in crucial export markets.
As we get ready for Halloween, we think that today’s number is unlikely to send market observers scurrying behind the sofa but may give new voice to concerns around the imbalances in growth moving into 2016.As we get ready for Halloween, we think that today’s number is unlikely to send market observers scurrying behind the sofa but may give new voice to concerns around the imbalances in growth moving into 2016.
World First Morning Update October 27th - UK GDP set to show slight slowing - https://t.co/FRrv01UVKaWorld First Morning Update October 27th - UK GDP set to show slight slowing - https://t.co/FRrv01UVKa
8.37am GMT08:378.37am GMT08:37
Robert Wood, chief UK economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, also predicts that growth slowed to 0.5% in the last three months.Robert Wood, chief UK economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, also predicts that growth slowed to 0.5% in the last three months.
He just told Bloomberg TV that he expects today’s GDP figure to be weaker than three month ago because UK manufacturing was weak last quarter. And that’s because the global economy was weaker.He just told Bloomberg TV that he expects today’s GDP figure to be weaker than three month ago because UK manufacturing was weak last quarter. And that’s because the global economy was weaker.
Wood believes that “strong domestic demand” will continue to drive UK growth, with real wages now rising at around 3%.Wood believes that “strong domestic demand” will continue to drive UK growth, with real wages now rising at around 3%.
Updated at 8.37am GMTUpdated at 8.37am GMT
8.31am GMT08:318.31am GMT08:31
My colleague Katie Allen has rounded up the key charts that show the state of the UK economy, setting the scene for today’s growth figures.My colleague Katie Allen has rounded up the key charts that show the state of the UK economy, setting the scene for today’s growth figures.
It includes this one, showing how the construction sector has struggled in recent months:It includes this one, showing how the construction sector has struggled in recent months:
Katie explains:Katie explains:
Like manufacturing, the construction sector – which accounts for about 6% of the economy – is unlikely to have contributed to overall economic growth in the third quarter.Like manufacturing, the construction sector – which accounts for about 6% of the economy – is unlikely to have contributed to overall economic growth in the third quarter.
Construction experienced sharp drops in output in July and August and it seems unlikely that September saw enough of a rebound to make up for that slow summer.Construction experienced sharp drops in output in July and August and it seems unlikely that September saw enough of a rebound to make up for that slow summer.
More here:More here:
Related: GDP: UK economy in five chartsRelated: GDP: UK economy in five charts
8.18am GMT08:188.18am GMT08:18
Mikael Olai Milhøj of Denmark’s Danske Bank, reckons that UK growth slowed to 0.5% in the last quarter, down from 0.7% in Q2.Mikael Olai Milhøj of Denmark’s Danske Bank, reckons that UK growth slowed to 0.5% in the last quarter, down from 0.7% in Q2.
He points out that construction and manufacturing surveys over the summer were disappointing. He predicts that construction will have knocked 0.1% off today’s growth number, while manufacturing will have been flat.He points out that construction and manufacturing surveys over the summer were disappointing. He predicts that construction will have knocked 0.1% off today’s growth number, while manufacturing will have been flat.
That leaves us depending on the service sector once again.....That leaves us depending on the service sector once again.....
Some charts on the #UK business cycle. We think growth slowed to 0.5%q/q in Q3, still service-driven https://t.co/uTsT4y9ExY $eurgbp $usdgbpSome charts on the #UK business cycle. We think growth slowed to 0.5%q/q in Q3, still service-driven https://t.co/uTsT4y9ExY $eurgbp $usdgbp
8.17am GMT08:178.17am GMT08:17
Reuters polled 59 City economists about today’s GDP figures. Estimates ranged from growth of just +0.3% up to +0.8%, leading to an average prediction of +0.6%.Reuters polled 59 City economists about today’s GDP figures. Estimates ranged from growth of just +0.3% up to +0.8%, leading to an average prediction of +0.6%.
The City hasn’t done too badly at guessing GDP recently - although it had a shocker a few years ago when the economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.5% in Q4 2010....The City hasn’t done too badly at guessing GDP recently - although it had a shocker a few years ago when the economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.5% in Q4 2010....
Updated at 8.23am GMTUpdated at 8.23am GMT
7.53am GMT07:537.53am GMT07:53
The Agenda: It's UK GDP DayThe Agenda: It's UK GDP Day
Good morning.Good morning.
We’re kicking off a busy few days for the global economy with live coverage of the latest UK growth figures.We’re kicking off a busy few days for the global economy with live coverage of the latest UK growth figures.
Today’s GDP figures, released on the dot of 9.30am GMT, will provide the first official snapshot of how the economy performed between July and September.Today’s GDP figures, released on the dot of 9.30am GMT, will provide the first official snapshot of how the economy performed between July and September.
Economists predict that growth slowed, to a quarterly rate of around 0.6% from 0.7% in the second quarter.Economists predict that growth slowed, to a quarterly rate of around 0.6% from 0.7% in the second quarter.
That’s due to chillier winds from the global economy, with UK exporters suffering from weaker demand from overseas. But there have also been signs that the UK domestic economy has lost some momentum this summer, particularly in the construction sector.That’s due to chillier winds from the global economy, with UK exporters suffering from weaker demand from overseas. But there have also been signs that the UK domestic economy has lost some momentum this summer, particularly in the construction sector.
A weak GDP reading would fuel concerns that the recovery is faltering; another headache for chancellor George Osborne, a day after the House of Lords voted to delay his controversial tax credit cuts.A weak GDP reading would fuel concerns that the recovery is faltering; another headache for chancellor George Osborne, a day after the House of Lords voted to delay his controversial tax credit cuts.
But stronger growth would raise the chances that the Bank of England raises interest rates sooner rather than later.But stronger growth would raise the chances that the Bank of England raises interest rates sooner rather than later.
Three months ago, the UK economy finally exceeded its pre-crisis level on a per-capita basis (ie, economic power adjusted for population changes), nearly seven year after the financial crisis struck.Three months ago, the UK economy finally exceeded its pre-crisis level on a per-capita basis (ie, economic power adjusted for population changes), nearly seven year after the financial crisis struck.
But Britain’s dominant service sector is the only part of the economy that’s actually bigger than in 2008 - construction, manufacturing, and the wider production sectors are still playing catch-up:But Britain’s dominant service sector is the only part of the economy that’s actually bigger than in 2008 - construction, manufacturing, and the wider production sectors are still playing catch-up:
Britain is Europe’s second largest economy, so today’s growth figures have international significance at a crucial time for the world economy. Last week, China reported that its growth had slowed, raising fears over the global economic outlook.Britain is Europe’s second largest economy, so today’s growth figures have international significance at a crucial time for the world economy. Last week, China reported that its growth had slowed, raising fears over the global economic outlook.
That will occupy the attention of the US Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, which begins a two-day policy meeting today. They’re likely to leave borrowing costs at their record lows yet again.That will occupy the attention of the US Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, which begins a two-day policy meeting today. They’re likely to leave borrowing costs at their record lows yet again.
On Thursday, we find out how the US economy performed in the third quarter. Economists predict that quarterly growth slowed to below 0.4%, from above 0.5%.On Thursday, we find out how the US economy performed in the third quarter. Economists predict that quarterly growth slowed to below 0.4%, from above 0.5%.
And on Friday, the Japanese central bank will issue new economic projections. With Japan’s economy faltering too, it could soon be forced into fresh stimulus measures....And on Friday, the Japanese central bank will issue new economic projections. With Japan’s economy faltering too, it could soon be forced into fresh stimulus measures....
Updated at 10.37am GMTUpdated at 10.37am GMT