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| Myefo: Scott Morrison reveals budget deficit to blow out by $26bn over four years – politics live | Myefo: Scott Morrison reveals budget deficit to blow out by $26bn over four years – politics live |
| (6 days later) | |
| 6.41am GMT | 6.41am GMT |
| 06:41 | 06:41 |
| Good night, Merry Christmas, and don't eat all the prawns | Good night, Merry Christmas, and don't eat all the prawns |
| That’s all folks. It really is goodbye from Politics Live now for 2015. | That’s all folks. It really is goodbye from Politics Live now for 2015. |
| Let’s wrap the main points of MYEFO, apart from my take home analysis, which I shared by reader request in the last post. | Let’s wrap the main points of MYEFO, apart from my take home analysis, which I shared by reader request in the last post. |
| [Politics Live theme music, roll credits.] | [Politics Live theme music, roll credits.] |
| Here are the known knowns. | Here are the known knowns. |
| Thank you all for your support and your brick bats throughout 2015. I appreciate both – although some days I probably appreciate the support more than the brickbats if I’m completely honest. | Thank you all for your support and your brick bats throughout 2015. I appreciate both – although some days I probably appreciate the support more than the brickbats if I’m completely honest. |
| Thanks to my colleagues, who fuel the blog when I can’t manage another word – and to Gabi and Mike, my partners in live blogue crimes against the Guardian Australia readership and politicians of all stripes. | Thanks to my colleagues, who fuel the blog when I can’t manage another word – and to Gabi and Mike, my partners in live blogue crimes against the Guardian Australia readership and politicians of all stripes. |
| See you in February. | See you in February. |
| 6.29am GMT | 6.29am GMT |
| 06:29 | 06:29 |
| As you asked, the objective lesson of MYEFO | As you asked, the objective lesson of MYEFO |
| Some readers have asked me what is the objective lesson of the day given I didn’t buy Bill Shorten’s lesson of the day: that this MYEFO contained harsher cuts than Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey’s handiwork. | Some readers have asked me what is the objective lesson of the day given I didn’t buy Bill Shorten’s lesson of the day: that this MYEFO contained harsher cuts than Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey’s handiwork. |
| The objective lesson of the day in my mind is pretty simple. | The objective lesson of the day in my mind is pretty simple. |
| Fixing the budget will be a tough task. It will require raising additional revenue (whatever Scott Morrison might say), as well as ensuring efficiency in government expenditures. It will certainly require a more comprehensive approach than building in quickie paper savings from welfare crackdowns (that may or may not eventuate), or chasing savings in health that you pretend won’t hit the consumer when, self evidently, they will hit the consumer. | Fixing the budget will be a tough task. It will require raising additional revenue (whatever Scott Morrison might say), as well as ensuring efficiency in government expenditures. It will certainly require a more comprehensive approach than building in quickie paper savings from welfare crackdowns (that may or may not eventuate), or chasing savings in health that you pretend won’t hit the consumer when, self evidently, they will hit the consumer. |
| This budget update has the distinct sound of desperate chasing of rats and mice in the hope that the budget trend will look vaguely credible. Sorry, it still doesn’t look credible. Much more work to do. | This budget update has the distinct sound of desperate chasing of rats and mice in the hope that the budget trend will look vaguely credible. Sorry, it still doesn’t look credible. Much more work to do. |
| Not only substantial policy work, also framing work. The government is trying to move past the mess of Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey, who came into government with thunderous over statements about the perilous state of the books, while peddling the fantasy the budget could be fixed without pain. But if the reboot is just folksy analogies about back seat drivers getting angsty about budget strategy – that ain’t going to cut it. Australians comprehensively rejected the agenda laid out in the 2014 budget, and the vehemence of the rejection has forced the government to go back to first principles at a time when it needs to be making a case for re-election. | Not only substantial policy work, also framing work. The government is trying to move past the mess of Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey, who came into government with thunderous over statements about the perilous state of the books, while peddling the fantasy the budget could be fixed without pain. But if the reboot is just folksy analogies about back seat drivers getting angsty about budget strategy – that ain’t going to cut it. Australians comprehensively rejected the agenda laid out in the 2014 budget, and the vehemence of the rejection has forced the government to go back to first principles at a time when it needs to be making a case for re-election. |
| So what’s the summary? | So what’s the summary? |
| The objective lesson of MYEFO is it’s about time the political conversation about fiscal sustainability and economic reform got serious, because we’ve about had it with the quick fixes and sugar hits and the nasty surprises that appear random because they are random. | The objective lesson of MYEFO is it’s about time the political conversation about fiscal sustainability and economic reform got serious, because we’ve about had it with the quick fixes and sugar hits and the nasty surprises that appear random because they are random. |
| The objective lesson of MYEFO is the government – in budget terms and reform terms – has blown its first two years in government. Whether it blows a third remains to be seen. | The objective lesson of MYEFO is the government – in budget terms and reform terms – has blown its first two years in government. Whether it blows a third remains to be seen. |
| 5.51am GMT | 5.51am GMT |
| 05:51 | 05:51 |
| How could I have missed the capping of the green army? | How could I have missed the capping of the green army? |
| The government will achieve savings by capping the number of green army projects at 500 per annum. | The government will achieve savings by capping the number of green army projects at 500 per annum. |
| Saving? $317.5m. | Saving? $317.5m. |
| The environment minister Greg Hunt will be very sad but pretending he is perfectly happy because that’s his form. | The environment minister Greg Hunt will be very sad but pretending he is perfectly happy because that’s his form. |
| 5.48am GMT | 5.48am GMT |
| 05:48 | 05:48 |
| Slight walk back in progress | Slight walk back in progress |
| We’ve had a few iterations today about the impact of the MYEFO health savings on people. Mathias Cormann said, rather uniquely, earlier on today that the changes to bulk billing incentives was not expected to have an impact on people. | We’ve had a few iterations today about the impact of the MYEFO health savings on people. Mathias Cormann said, rather uniquely, earlier on today that the changes to bulk billing incentives was not expected to have an impact on people. |
| Health minister Sussan Ley isn’t quite going that far. This is her formulation. | Health minister Sussan Ley isn’t quite going that far. This is her formulation. |
| We do not expect the changes to affect the majority of consumers due to the high level of competition in the sector, and will ensure some of these services are better aligned with other medical and health providers, such as GPs. | We do not expect the changes to affect the majority of consumers due to the high level of competition in the sector, and will ensure some of these services are better aligned with other medical and health providers, such as GPs. |
| It’s also important to note bulk billing incentives are paid direct to the pathology or diagnostic provider, not the patient. Patients with high out-of-pocket medical costs will also continue to be covered by the Medicare Safety Net protections. | It’s also important to note bulk billing incentives are paid direct to the pathology or diagnostic provider, not the patient. Patients with high out-of-pocket medical costs will also continue to be covered by the Medicare Safety Net protections. |
| 5.39am GMT | 5.39am GMT |
| 05:39 | 05:39 |
| Agility, anyone? | Agility, anyone? |
| 5.32am GMT | 5.32am GMT |
| 05:32 | 05:32 |
| Communications minister Mitch Fifield. | Communications minister Mitch Fifield. |
| The government has announced it will not proceed with the Book Council of Australia. This decision is reflected in the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook. I will be consulting widely with the literary community about alternative sector-led mechanisms for representation and promotion. I thank those who had indicated their willingness to serve on the council, particularly Louise Adler AM, who had agreed to be chair, and the many people who have generously shared their views on Australian writing and reading. | The government has announced it will not proceed with the Book Council of Australia. This decision is reflected in the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook. I will be consulting widely with the literary community about alternative sector-led mechanisms for representation and promotion. I thank those who had indicated their willingness to serve on the council, particularly Louise Adler AM, who had agreed to be chair, and the many people who have generously shared their views on Australian writing and reading. |
| 5.29am GMT | 5.29am GMT |
| 05:29 | 05:29 |
| This comparison isn’t like for like but it is illustrative. Just one little cameo from the arts portfolio. | This comparison isn’t like for like but it is illustrative. Just one little cameo from the arts portfolio. |
| Readers might remember earlier this year the government announced it would kick in $47.3m for two Hollywood blockbusters – Alien: Covenant and Thor: Ragnarok. There was much excitements and if memory serves, Ridley Scott beamed in from somewhere or other to be thrilled. | Readers might remember earlier this year the government announced it would kick in $47.3m for two Hollywood blockbusters – Alien: Covenant and Thor: Ragnarok. There was much excitements and if memory serves, Ridley Scott beamed in from somewhere or other to be thrilled. |
| But today the government pulled $52.5m from the communications and arts portfolio. The savings include imposing a 3% efficiency target on cultural and collecting agencies (reaping $36.8m), pulling back $9.6m from arts programs, including ending the Book Council of Australia, and pulling $6m from the department. | But today the government pulled $52.5m from the communications and arts portfolio. The savings include imposing a 3% efficiency target on cultural and collecting agencies (reaping $36.8m), pulling back $9.6m from arts programs, including ending the Book Council of Australia, and pulling $6m from the department. |
| As was once sung in a popular musical, nothing comes from nothing, everything has got a little price. | As was once sung in a popular musical, nothing comes from nothing, everything has got a little price. |
| 5.14am GMT | 5.14am GMT |
| 05:14 | 05:14 |
| Be alert, not alarmed 2.0 | Be alert, not alarmed 2.0 |
| I’m still working carefully through the fine print. Despite all the belt tightening, the government has found $10m for a national security awareness campaign for this financial year. | I’m still working carefully through the fine print. Despite all the belt tightening, the government has found $10m for a national security awareness campaign for this financial year. |
| The campaign is designed to encourage the public to report suspicious activity to the national security hotline and will use television, radio, print, outdoor and online media. | The campaign is designed to encourage the public to report suspicious activity to the national security hotline and will use television, radio, print, outdoor and online media. |
| 5.03am GMT | 5.03am GMT |
| 05:03 | 05:03 |
| Co-payment by stealth | Co-payment by stealth |
| Shalailah Medhora | Shalailah Medhora |
| The Australian Medical Association has slammed the decision to reduce incentives for bulk-billing pathology and diagnostic services, saying the measure made up part of the now defunct GP co-payment proposal. | The Australian Medical Association has slammed the decision to reduce incentives for bulk-billing pathology and diagnostic services, saying the measure made up part of the now defunct GP co-payment proposal. |
| “Despite Tony Abbott saying that the measures are dead, buried and cremated, it appears that the hand of the co-payment component is reaching out beyond the grave,” the AMA president, Brian Owler, told Guardian Australia. | “Despite Tony Abbott saying that the measures are dead, buried and cremated, it appears that the hand of the co-payment component is reaching out beyond the grave,” the AMA president, Brian Owler, told Guardian Australia. |
| Reviving the measures “came out of the blue”, Owler said, adding that the health minister, Sussan Ley, had not flagged the policy with the AMA or with pathology and diagnostics experts. The Myefo announcement “makes a mockery” of Ley’s clinician-led Medicare review, he said. | Reviving the measures “came out of the blue”, Owler said, adding that the health minister, Sussan Ley, had not flagged the policy with the AMA or with pathology and diagnostics experts. The Myefo announcement “makes a mockery” of Ley’s clinician-led Medicare review, he said. |
| Cutting bulk-billing incentives “creates a false economy”, as it often shifts costs in the health system from primary care to the much more expensive public hospital system, Owler warned. “A significant proportion of the population will not proceed with medical tests,” he said. “That could be very dangerous for the patient.” | Cutting bulk-billing incentives “creates a false economy”, as it often shifts costs in the health system from primary care to the much more expensive public hospital system, Owler warned. “A significant proportion of the population will not proceed with medical tests,” he said. “That could be very dangerous for the patient.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 5.25am GMT | at 5.25am GMT |
| 4.38am GMT | 4.38am GMT |
| 04:38 | 04:38 |
| Now some key social services savings measures: | Now some key social services savings measures: |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 5.28am GMT | at 5.28am GMT |
| 4.10am GMT | 4.10am GMT |
| 04:10 | 04:10 |
| While I chase welfare, another chart from Nick Evershed. | While I chase welfare, another chart from Nick Evershed. |
| 4.08am GMT | 4.08am GMT |
| 04:08 | 04:08 |
| Further and betters on the health measures | Further and betters on the health measures |
| It’s worth outlining the health-related measures in a degree of detail. | It’s worth outlining the health-related measures in a degree of detail. |
| Some of these measures are quite specific and others are quite vague. Speaking of vague, I’ll look at welfare next. | Some of these measures are quite specific and others are quite vague. Speaking of vague, I’ll look at welfare next. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 4.25am GMT | at 4.25am GMT |
| 3.51am GMT | 3.51am GMT |
| 03:51 | 03:51 |
| Bill Shorten | Bill Shorten |
| The lesson of today’s Myefo statement is that Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison are proposing cuts which are harsher than those of Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey. | The lesson of today’s Myefo statement is that Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison are proposing cuts which are harsher than those of Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey. |
| (Objectively, no, that is not the lesson of today.) | (Objectively, no, that is not the lesson of today.) |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 4.25am GMT | at 4.25am GMT |
| 3.49am GMT | 3.49am GMT |
| 03:49 | 03:49 |
| Chris Bowen, warming to the theme of let’s have an Myefo analogy-off. | Chris Bowen, warming to the theme of let’s have an Myefo analogy-off. |
| Of course, the biggest save is increase compliance when it comes to social welfare. Well, of course, Scott Morrison is a one-trick pony. We have heard it all before. When it comes to finding savings, he’s got one trick and he rolls it out every time. And that is increase compliance when it comes to social security. | Of course, the biggest save is increase compliance when it comes to social welfare. Well, of course, Scott Morrison is a one-trick pony. We have heard it all before. When it comes to finding savings, he’s got one trick and he rolls it out every time. And that is increase compliance when it comes to social security. |
| Well, Scott Morrison can talk up a storm, but he delivers a light shower. | Well, Scott Morrison can talk up a storm, but he delivers a light shower. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 4.26am GMT | at 4.26am GMT |
| 3.45am GMT | 3.45am GMT |
| 03:45 | 03:45 |
| The Labor leader, Bill Shorten, is holding a press conference in Sydney. He’s unhappy about the cuts. | The Labor leader, Bill Shorten, is holding a press conference in Sydney. He’s unhappy about the cuts. |
| Instead of looking at multinational taxation, or superannuation tax concessions, the Liberals are at it again. They are proposing the harshest cuts to the people least able to protect themselves. | Instead of looking at multinational taxation, or superannuation tax concessions, the Liberals are at it again. They are proposing the harshest cuts to the people least able to protect themselves. |
| The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, wonders what is the point of the Turnbull government. | The shadow treasurer, Chris Bowen, wonders what is the point of the Turnbull government. |
| Today’s midyear economic update is a report card on the progress of the Liberal government in meeting their promises when it comes to the economy. And the report card is a great big failure. | Today’s midyear economic update is a report card on the progress of the Liberal government in meeting their promises when it comes to the economy. And the report card is a great big failure. |
| We know that according to the government’s own figures, we face a future of higher deficits and lower growth. What we are seeing is two years of economic and budget mismanagement by the Liberal government. | We know that according to the government’s own figures, we face a future of higher deficits and lower growth. What we are seeing is two years of economic and budget mismanagement by the Liberal government. |
| Now, deficit reduction and returning to surplus was at the heart of this Liberal government, and it begs the question: if they have no plan to return to balance, what is the point of the Turnbull government? | Now, deficit reduction and returning to surplus was at the heart of this Liberal government, and it begs the question: if they have no plan to return to balance, what is the point of the Turnbull government? |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 4.30am GMT | at 4.30am GMT |
| 3.36am GMT | 3.36am GMT |
| 03:36 | 03:36 |
| Introducing a new price for pathology will not help improve primary care services and will discourage early diagnosis: Consumers Health Forum | Introducing a new price for pathology will not help improve primary care services and will discourage early diagnosis: Consumers Health Forum |
| The first run reaction to the pathology savings measure seems to confirm my first run reasoning – how do patients not face higher out-of-pocket costs as a consequence of this? | The first run reaction to the pathology savings measure seems to confirm my first run reasoning – how do patients not face higher out-of-pocket costs as a consequence of this? |
| The Consumers Health Forum says the measure raises the prospect of a fresh cost barrier that could dissuade patients from undergoing important tests. | The Consumers Health Forum says the measure raises the prospect of a fresh cost barrier that could dissuade patients from undergoing important tests. |
| Consumers Health Forum chief, Leanne Wells. | Consumers Health Forum chief, Leanne Wells. |
| Many patients requiring pathology tests would face out-of-pocket costs for the first time under these budget measures, if pathology practices fail to absorb the impact of reduced Medicare benefit payments. Pathology tests for the most part have not attracted any out-of-pocket charges in the past. | Many patients requiring pathology tests would face out-of-pocket costs for the first time under these budget measures, if pathology practices fail to absorb the impact of reduced Medicare benefit payments. Pathology tests for the most part have not attracted any out-of-pocket charges in the past. |
| The government’s saving measure however poses a new hurdle in the way of patients whose GP has referred them for what could well be a significant test. CHF appreciates the very difficult challenges faced by the government in the latest economic forecasts, but we need to keep the impacts on the health budget to a minimum. | The government’s saving measure however poses a new hurdle in the way of patients whose GP has referred them for what could well be a significant test. CHF appreciates the very difficult challenges faced by the government in the latest economic forecasts, but we need to keep the impacts on the health budget to a minimum. |
| Australia needs to be strengthening its primary care services, as shown in a recent international survey and as canvassed widely by the government’s Primary Health Care Advisory Group’s recent consultations on how we can better respond to people with complex and chronic conditions. | Australia needs to be strengthening its primary care services, as shown in a recent international survey and as canvassed widely by the government’s Primary Health Care Advisory Group’s recent consultations on how we can better respond to people with complex and chronic conditions. |
| Introducing a new price for pathology will not help improve primary care services and will discourage early diagnosis. Worryingly the government will extract another $1bn in cuts over four years from aged care and health workforce funding when so many services are already stretched. | Introducing a new price for pathology will not help improve primary care services and will discourage early diagnosis. Worryingly the government will extract another $1bn in cuts over four years from aged care and health workforce funding when so many services are already stretched. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 5.17am GMT | at 5.17am GMT |
| 3.30am GMT | 3.30am GMT |
| 03:30 | 03:30 |
| My colleague Nick Evershed is head down working up charts, bless him. Down, down, projections are down. | My colleague Nick Evershed is head down working up charts, bless him. Down, down, projections are down. |
| 3.22am GMT | 3.22am GMT |
| 03:22 | 03:22 |
| While I’m delving, the finance minister is continuing to insist the removal of bulk billing incentives in both pathology and in medical imaging scans won’t hit patients. I’ll be interested to hear what the Australian Medical Association has to say about this, because on the face of it, if you remove a bulk billing incentive there will be more out of pocket costs faced by patients. | While I’m delving, the finance minister is continuing to insist the removal of bulk billing incentives in both pathology and in medical imaging scans won’t hit patients. I’ll be interested to hear what the Australian Medical Association has to say about this, because on the face of it, if you remove a bulk billing incentive there will be more out of pocket costs faced by patients. |
| Cormann has just told the ABC there shouldn’t be any impact on patients in need of the sort of support that is provided as a result of bulk billing incentive payments. | Cormann has just told the ABC there shouldn’t be any impact on patients in need of the sort of support that is provided as a result of bulk billing incentive payments. |
| He adds: | He adds: |
| Incidentally, the $650m saving helps us to pay for the $621m in additional expenditure that we’ll be incurring in relation to various drugs in the context of cancer treatments that have been listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. So the money has been redirected within the health system. | Incidentally, the $650m saving helps us to pay for the $621m in additional expenditure that we’ll be incurring in relation to various drugs in the context of cancer treatments that have been listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. So the money has been redirected within the health system. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.23am GMT | at 3.23am GMT |
| 3.16am GMT | 3.16am GMT |
| 03:16 | 03:16 |
| During my live coverage of the press coverage I referenced a measure about the China FTA which I wasn’t across and did not want to garble. | During my live coverage of the press coverage I referenced a measure about the China FTA which I wasn’t across and did not want to garble. |
| Having consulted the Myefo tome, essentially the government is estimating it will lose $4.2bn in revenue from tariffs over the forward estimates courtesy of signing the free trade deal with China. According to the explanation, the government had already accounted for the cost to revenue (presumably in the contingency reserve) but now there was full accounting. | Having consulted the Myefo tome, essentially the government is estimating it will lose $4.2bn in revenue from tariffs over the forward estimates courtesy of signing the free trade deal with China. According to the explanation, the government had already accounted for the cost to revenue (presumably in the contingency reserve) but now there was full accounting. |
| From the measure description. | From the measure description. |
| Going forward the government has decided not to offset the revenue impacts of free trade agreements. This decision has been taken because the government believes there should not be domestic tax increases or reductions in domestic spending to offset the revenue impact of free trade agreements that provide benefits to Australian business and consumers. | Going forward the government has decided not to offset the revenue impacts of free trade agreements. This decision has been taken because the government believes there should not be domestic tax increases or reductions in domestic spending to offset the revenue impact of free trade agreements that provide benefits to Australian business and consumers. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.22am GMT | at 3.22am GMT |
| 3.03am GMT | 3.03am GMT |
| 03:03 | 03:03 |
| Just while I’m delving, my colleague Lenore Taylor has filed some commentary. She makes the excellent point that the government’s “let’s get serious about budget repair” timetable is about to collide into the political cycle – an election year. | Just while I’m delving, my colleague Lenore Taylor has filed some commentary. She makes the excellent point that the government’s “let’s get serious about budget repair” timetable is about to collide into the political cycle – an election year. |
| Here’s Lenore: | Here’s Lenore: |
| Even taking into account treasurer Scott Morrison’s slightly tortured holiday road trip metaphor to explain the patient road back to surplus (the careful route of restraining expenditure and trying to boost growth, rather than the potentially destructive shortcut of slashing spending – and voters should not get impatient and start asking ‘Are we there yet?’ from the back seat) the government knows it has to explain how it will speed things up in the budget next May and its pre-election manifesto. | Even taking into account treasurer Scott Morrison’s slightly tortured holiday road trip metaphor to explain the patient road back to surplus (the careful route of restraining expenditure and trying to boost growth, rather than the potentially destructive shortcut of slashing spending – and voters should not get impatient and start asking ‘Are we there yet?’ from the back seat) the government knows it has to explain how it will speed things up in the budget next May and its pre-election manifesto. |
| But Tony Abbott already did a pre-election budget last May, a desperate attempt to climb out from underneath the political disaster of his first budget and get ready for a possible national-security focused election early next year. | But Tony Abbott already did a pre-election budget last May, a desperate attempt to climb out from underneath the political disaster of his first budget and get ready for a possible national-security focused election early next year. |
| The good news for Turnbull is that the change of prime ministership has given the Coalition the political capital to spend. | The good news for Turnbull is that the change of prime ministership has given the Coalition the political capital to spend. |
| The latest Newspoll shows the Coalition ahead 53% to 47% on two-party-preferred terms and Turnbull the preferred prime minister of 60% of the nation. | The latest Newspoll shows the Coalition ahead 53% to 47% on two-party-preferred terms and Turnbull the preferred prime minister of 60% of the nation. |
| His big judgment now is how to balance those political numbers against the worsening economic ones in the budget. | His big judgment now is how to balance those political numbers against the worsening economic ones in the budget. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.12am GMT | at 3.12am GMT |
| 2.56am GMT | 2.56am GMT |
| 02:56 | 02:56 |
| The press conference is over now. Give me a minute to burrow and I’ll be back with further and betters. | The press conference is over now. Give me a minute to burrow and I’ll be back with further and betters. |