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| Myefo: Scott Morrison reveals budget deficit to blow out by $26bn over four years – politics live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 2.50am GMT02:50 | |
| Lots of fun times underway about the car I see. | |
| @LightheartedDan @stilgherrian @murpharoo I think Scott might be hoping Australia just stops asking and falls asleep pic.twitter.com/l8ZQLr0GuY | |
| 2.48am GMT02:48 | |
| Peering into Scott Morrison's backseat. Yes, we need to. | |
| More Morrison, and the back seats of cars. | |
| We need to look at this carefully. | |
| I’m pleased that this year’s budget position as forecast will be better than last year and the better the year after that. That shows we are making progress towards our destination. We are not there yet but we are not going to take detours or short-cuts. We are not going to put the safety of the passengers at risk. | |
| Those passengers are growth and jobs of Australians. That’s why we will remain very focused on this workman-like approach to delivering on this task. That’s what Australians expect of the government. They don’t think there is any magic solution to this. They don’t think there is one save or tax that will solve this problem because their situations are just as complex and they don’t see simple answers to the things they face. | |
| With the Australian people, we are very much on the same page. I don’t think think would like to see more extreme positions adopted in how we deal with this issue. They would very much appreciate the very patient approach we are taking to this because that is what, at the end of the day, is going to preserve jobs and increase growth. | |
| This language is all very well. Sensible in fact. But it begs two highly pertinent questions: why did the Coalition radically over simplify the budget challenge in the effort to secure government in 2013? And why did it adopt extreme positions during its first budget in 2014? | |
| 2.42am GMT02:42 | |
| Q: What sort of proportion of the new measures you announced today you will need to get through the Senate? | |
| Scott Morrison | |
| There are a variety which are administrative and executive matters and also legislation. | |
| They’ll be presented as we go back into parliament next year and so you’ll see that very plainly at that time. | |
| 2.41am GMT02:41 | |
| Scott Morrison, on the health savings: | |
| We are applying the same targeting that applies to doctors and bulk billing of doctors to this area. The previous government allowed this program to get out of control and to go beyond what we would consider was its original design. When you are dealing with the budget, you need to make sure not just that your revenue is fit for purpose but your expenditure is fit for purpose. | |
| There are clear purposes around bulk billing incentives. When they are out of alignment with the way the rest of the system works, that’s how you bring your budget back to balance. | |
| 2.39am GMT02:39 | |
| Pathology nasties not expect to impact on people: Cormann | |
| There’s a question about a China FTA measure which I’m not yet fully across. Rather than garble my explanation I will check that after the press conference and explain it to you properly. | |
| Q: A big picture question: In the press release, it talks about adding $400 million to the bottom line over four years. That’s the net saving. At a time when the Commonwealth spends about $400 billion a year, is it really not possible to find any other waste to scale back in the federal government? | |
| David, this is a budget update, it is not a budget. The budget will be the next time when we work through these measures again. | |
| Q: I wonder if you could explain the decision, there is $650 million saving in the Medicare benefit schedule changing to diagnostic and imaging services. That will have a significant impact on people and on savings. What’s behind that policy? | |
| Mathias Cormann | |
| It is not expected to have an impact on people. | |
| What we are seeking to do here, in the main, is make the benefit arrangements consistent with those that apply in the context of benefits for GP services so there is what is described as a bulk billing incentive payment in relation to GP services that is limited to concession cardholders, children under 16 years of age and so on. In relation to the bulk billing incentive payment for diagnostic imaging services, we are essentially making it entirely consistent with that. We thought that was an anomaly here. | |
| In relation to pathology services, we are removing the bulk billing incentive payment because there is a very strong competitive sector here, there is about 89%, 90% bulk billing takes place as we speak in relation to services provided through the pathology service providers so there is essentially not the additional benefit provided by continuing that arrangement in place. That is essentially the main driver. | |
| 2.31am GMT02:31 | |
| A GST WA question. When in Perth .. | |
| Then to the nasties. | |
| Q: Can you explain what the health workforce programs are that will save over half a billion dollars? | |
| Mathias Cormann | |
| There is a range of workforce-related programs across government in relation to health and the aged care sector in particular. What we found is there is a level of duplication and inefficiency and our focus has been on removing duplication wherever we can, on making sure that all government spending, in particular and including this area, is as efficient and effective and targeted as possible and the details are there in the measure description. | |
| (I haven’t looked yet. I will look when we get through this.) | |
| 2.28am GMT02:28 | |
| Q: The price of US$39 a tonne in this document, is that realistic? | |
| Mathias Cormann | |
| It is based on the four-week average – which is the methodology used by Treasury. This is an update, this is where it was struck at the time of finalising this document. There will be a budget next year. | |
| 2.26am GMT02:26 | |
| Q: The deficits is now far worse. You are not putting off difficult decisions into the future? | |
| Scott Morrison | |
| This is MYEFO - this isn’t a budget, this is an update on the budget – it contains savings and other measures that more than account for the spending decisions that have been taken since the last budget. | |
| We will go to a budget next year and we will look further to what needs to be achieved. | |
| Q: Is there a plan B if the Senate doesn’t cooperate with the savings measured you have counted here or if the iron ore price continues to fall? Currently it is below the price that’s in this document. Senator Cormann, the narrative of jobs and growth does not ring true in WA at the moment. So how bad is it going to get in WA? | |
| Mathias Cormann | |
| Firstly in relation to your question about the senate, our budget and now updated in this budget update is our plan. That’s the plan we are putting forward, openly and transparently forward for all to see to assess and scrutinise. The budget is our plan. Of course we have been, as the treasurer has been saying, been making significant progress in getting our budget through the Senate. We are continuing to work our way through this. | |
| The price for iron ore, the price we are able to achieve in global markets in iron ore went from a high of $180 a tonne to $38 - $39 a tonne at the moment. When iron ore is about 20% of our national export income, of course you’d expect that to flow through. But the good news is that the economy, including here in WA, is actually transitioning quite well. | |
| 2.20am GMT02:20 | |
| There was more scene setting but I’ll recap later. Questions now. | |
| Q: Is the promise made by Tony Abbott about a return to 1% budget surplus of GDP dead? If the economy is gaining momentum as you have just mentioned, why have you been forced to slice your forecast GDP, household consumption, dwelling investment, non-mining investment and terms of trade? | |
| Finance minister Cormann says the failure to deliver on Abbott’s surplus promise is not a new development. | |
| Mathias Cormann | |
| Previous budgets and budget updates have clearly spelt out the fact we are facing additional global economic head winds. We are facing additional challenges given what’s been happening to our terms of trade. Everybody knows the price for iron ore is much lower now than what it was when we came into government. I think you’ll find the question you asked today does not relate to a new development in our half-yearly budget today. It is something we have previously readily acknowledged. | |
| Scott Morrison | |
| It may well be that things may improve more than what we have said in this document. That would have the obvious positive impact, but what we have in this document, I think, is a very realistic and honest outlook. We know where the destination is and we know how we’re going to get there and we will arrive there when expenditure is less than revenue. | |
| 2.15am GMT02:15 | 2.15am GMT02:15 |
| More on the virtue of patience and responsibility when it comes to deficit reduction. | More on the virtue of patience and responsibility when it comes to deficit reduction. |
| Scott Morrison | Scott Morrison |
| Despite revenue write downs of almost $34bn caused by falling commodity prices, a declining terms of trade, weaker global growth and the adoption of more realistic domestic growth outlook, we continue patiently and responsibly on the path to budget balance. | Despite revenue write downs of almost $34bn caused by falling commodity prices, a declining terms of trade, weaker global growth and the adoption of more realistic domestic growth outlook, we continue patiently and responsibly on the path to budget balance. |
| I want to stress those words: patiently and responsibly. | I want to stress those words: patiently and responsibly. |
| 2.13am GMT02:13 | 2.13am GMT02:13 |
| The car does beg the question: who are the nagging deficit obsessed kids in the backseat? It used to be the two men currently at the microphone. But I digress. | The car does beg the question: who are the nagging deficit obsessed kids in the backseat? It used to be the two men currently at the microphone. But I digress. |
| 2.10am GMT02:10 | 2.10am GMT02:10 |
| Scott Morrison addresses reporters in Perth | Scott Morrison addresses reporters in Perth |
| The treasurer has opening the rhetorical batting on Myefo with the predictable language about the economy rebalancing. | |
| He then chooses a holiday analogy to explain deficit reduction. | He then chooses a holiday analogy to explain deficit reduction. |
| Yes, he did. | Yes, he did. |
| Scott Morrison | Scott Morrison |
| As we go into this summer season and Christmas season, many Australians will jump in the car and they’ll head off to their favourite holiday destination. | As we go into this summer season and Christmas season, many Australians will jump in the car and they’ll head off to their favourite holiday destination. |
| They know where they’re going and they know how to get there, there are no short-cuts, there may be some delays on the way with roadworks or things like this – there will be plenty of people in the back seat, which often happens when I’m driving, the family saying: “Are we there yet? Are we there yet?”. | They know where they’re going and they know how to get there, there are no short-cuts, there may be some delays on the way with roadworks or things like this – there will be plenty of people in the back seat, which often happens when I’m driving, the family saying: “Are we there yet? Are we there yet?”. |
| That’s natural. The path back to budget balance is similar to that. We need to take a safe and careful route and one does not put at risk our jobs and growth. | That’s natural. The path back to budget balance is similar to that. We need to take a safe and careful route and one does not put at risk our jobs and growth. |
| Updated at 2.29am GMT | |
| 2.05am GMT02:05 | 2.05am GMT02:05 |
| Pathology and other nasties .. | Pathology and other nasties .. |
| My colleague, Daniel Hurst, on the nasties. | My colleague, Daniel Hurst, on the nasties. |
| The new cuts include $650m over four years through changes to bulk-billing incentives. | The new cuts include $650m over four years through changes to bulk-billing incentives. |
| The government says it will remove incentives for pathology services and reduce the incentive for MRI services. It says it will align incentives for diagnostic imaging services to the ones that apply to GP services, with incentives continuing to apply for patients with concession cards and children under 16. | The government says it will remove incentives for pathology services and reduce the incentive for MRI services. It says it will align incentives for diagnostic imaging services to the ones that apply to GP services, with incentives continuing to apply for patients with concession cards and children under 16. |
| Morrison is also banking on $1.3bn by expanding the welfare payment integrity measure announced in the last budget, which was already slated to achieve $1.7bn. | Morrison is also banking on $1.3bn by expanding the welfare payment integrity measure announced in the last budget, which was already slated to achieve $1.7bn. |
| The government says the new measure will focus on recovering money from a greater number of people where discrepancies exist between the employment income they declare to Centrelink and the “pay as you go” information provided to the tax office. | The government says the new measure will focus on recovering money from a greater number of people where discrepancies exist between the employment income they declare to Centrelink and the “pay as you go” information provided to the tax office. |
| 2.02am GMT02:02 | 2.02am GMT02:02 |
| MYEFO at a glance | MYEFO at a glance |
| Here are your key points, via my colleague Lenore Taylor. | Here are your key points, via my colleague Lenore Taylor. |
| Updated at 2.26am GMT | |
| 1.55am GMT01:55 | 1.55am GMT01:55 |
| One other quick refresh before we get the new material. Some of the news reports in the lead up to MYEFO have indicated the government will seek savings today through strengthening the integrity of welfare payments, rather than going after people’s current entitlements. If correct, this is an attempt to make budget savings look painless. | One other quick refresh before we get the new material. Some of the news reports in the lead up to MYEFO have indicated the government will seek savings today through strengthening the integrity of welfare payments, rather than going after people’s current entitlements. If correct, this is an attempt to make budget savings look painless. |
| But big “integrity” savings seems pretty ambitious when you consider the May budget’s second biggest savings measure was a $1.7bn proposal to strengthen the integrity of welfare payments. That particular saving was number two after the changes to social security assets tests and taper rates ($2.4bn). The budget’s welfare crackdown measure was seen as a rather large saving to book at the time given the description of the measure in the budget papers wasn’t all that specific. I’ll be interested to see what emerges today. | But big “integrity” savings seems pretty ambitious when you consider the May budget’s second biggest savings measure was a $1.7bn proposal to strengthen the integrity of welfare payments. That particular saving was number two after the changes to social security assets tests and taper rates ($2.4bn). The budget’s welfare crackdown measure was seen as a rather large saving to book at the time given the description of the measure in the budget papers wasn’t all that specific. I’ll be interested to see what emerges today. |
| 1.47am GMT01:47 | 1.47am GMT01:47 |
| Let's refresh our memory on key forecasts | Let's refresh our memory on key forecasts |
| A quick reminder of some of the key budget forecasts before we get the fresh material. | A quick reminder of some of the key budget forecasts before we get the fresh material. |
| 1.38am GMT01:38 | 1.38am GMT01:38 |
| Earlier, I mentioned the government walking away from the florid budget emergency rhetoric it used so volubly in opposition. It’s all about rebalancing now. Here’s a small case study of that. | Earlier, I mentioned the government walking away from the florid budget emergency rhetoric it used so volubly in opposition. It’s all about rebalancing now. Here’s a small case study of that. |
| This is from an interview the finance minister Mathias Cormann did this morning with Virginia Trioli on ABC news breakfast. It doesn’t need me to set it up, the back and forth will be clear if you read on. | This is from an interview the finance minister Mathias Cormann did this morning with Virginia Trioli on ABC news breakfast. It doesn’t need me to set it up, the back and forth will be clear if you read on. |
| Q: If the deficit comes in between $35 to $38bn will that be described as a budget emergency? | Q: If the deficit comes in between $35 to $38bn will that be described as a budget emergency? |
| Mathias Cormann: | Mathias Cormann: |
| Well, what you will see in the budget update today, as the government continues to make progress in putting Australia on a stronger economic and fiscal foundation for the future, our economy is transitioning from significant resource investment-driven growth to broader drivers of economic activity and when it comes to the budget, what we were able to see at budget time was that the budget position was improving over the forward estimates and that we were getting back into balance at an appropriate speed and of course since budget time there have been some additional headwinds. The price of iron ore has fallen further. Everybody knows that that does have flow-on consequences. The government’s focus has been on policies to strengthen growth such as the innovation statement released last week but also on controlling expenditure – and what the budget update to be released today will show is wherever we are to incur additional payment they have been more than offset by reductions in expenditure in other parts of the budget and so that overall expenditure in this budget update is lower than what was forecast at budget time. | Well, what you will see in the budget update today, as the government continues to make progress in putting Australia on a stronger economic and fiscal foundation for the future, our economy is transitioning from significant resource investment-driven growth to broader drivers of economic activity and when it comes to the budget, what we were able to see at budget time was that the budget position was improving over the forward estimates and that we were getting back into balance at an appropriate speed and of course since budget time there have been some additional headwinds. The price of iron ore has fallen further. Everybody knows that that does have flow-on consequences. The government’s focus has been on policies to strengthen growth such as the innovation statement released last week but also on controlling expenditure – and what the budget update to be released today will show is wherever we are to incur additional payment they have been more than offset by reductions in expenditure in other parts of the budget and so that overall expenditure in this budget update is lower than what was forecast at budget time. |
| Q: That’s a good speech but it doesn’t answer my question which is whether that figure between $35 and $38bn would be described as a budget emergency. Let me ask it another way. If you were in opposition and the Labor government came back with that figure ... would that be acceptable to you? | Q: That’s a good speech but it doesn’t answer my question which is whether that figure between $35 and $38bn would be described as a budget emergency. Let me ask it another way. If you were in opposition and the Labor government came back with that figure ... would that be acceptable to you? |
| Well, we are on a credible path back to surplus. | Well, we are on a credible path back to surplus. |
| Q: That’s not my question. I’m going to jump in. That’s not my question and I’m happy you’re on a credible path and you believe that but we’ve had lot of rhetoric over the years about what’s acceptable and unacceptable when it comes to a deficit. If we hit the figure between $35 and $38bn, if you were on the other side, would you stand up and say, “Fair enough, good figure.”? | Q: That’s not my question. I’m going to jump in. That’s not my question and I’m happy you’re on a credible path and you believe that but we’ve had lot of rhetoric over the years about what’s acceptable and unacceptable when it comes to a deficit. If we hit the figure between $35 and $38bn, if you were on the other side, would you stand up and say, “Fair enough, good figure.”? |
| Virginia, I’m happy for you to go into the politics and into the commentary. | Virginia, I’m happy for you to go into the politics and into the commentary. |
| Q: That’s not the politics, minister, that’s how you’ve played it. You’ve played it very hard with strong rhetoric so does the rhetoric apply to you? | Q: That’s not the politics, minister, that’s how you’ve played it. You’ve played it very hard with strong rhetoric so does the rhetoric apply to you? |
| Well, Virginia, you can go into the politics and you can try and get me into the commentary. | Well, Virginia, you can go into the politics and you can try and get me into the commentary. |
| Q: How about trying to get you to answer a question? | Q: How about trying to get you to answer a question? |
| Updated at 1.38am GMT | Updated at 1.38am GMT |
| 1.25am GMT01:25 | 1.25am GMT01:25 |
| Here’s a sample of various MYEFO news previews this morning. | Here’s a sample of various MYEFO news previews this morning. |
| In addition to those news pieces that are about to be overrun by events, Fairfax economics editor Peter Martin has also written a good column about why this MYEFO statement will be bad news, and why we need it to be bad news, because the government needs to “stop building unlikely Senate decisions into their forecasts and ... be honest about what is happening to revenue.” | In addition to those news pieces that are about to be overrun by events, Fairfax economics editor Peter Martin has also written a good column about why this MYEFO statement will be bad news, and why we need it to be bad news, because the government needs to “stop building unlikely Senate decisions into their forecasts and ... be honest about what is happening to revenue.” |
| The commentary is timeless and might be one you bookmark for later. You can read Peter here. | The commentary is timeless and might be one you bookmark for later. You can read Peter here. |
| 1.10am GMT01:10 | 1.10am GMT01:10 |
| What was I saying before about red ink? Courtesy of David Uren, economics editor at The Australian (shared by his colleague David Crowe and now, me) – the top line of this chart is the official budget forecasts for the deficit. The red column is the blowout predictions of various market economists. Average blowout $33.3bn. | What was I saying before about red ink? Courtesy of David Uren, economics editor at The Australian (shared by his colleague David Crowe and now, me) – the top line of this chart is the official budget forecasts for the deficit. The red column is the blowout predictions of various market economists. Average blowout $33.3bn. |
| Another budget cheat sheet for #MYEFO today, from David Uren's work on Monday. More online: https://t.co/qVZ6VGPFPV pic.twitter.com/D0DpD1uejf | Another budget cheat sheet for #MYEFO today, from David Uren's work on Monday. More online: https://t.co/qVZ6VGPFPV pic.twitter.com/D0DpD1uejf |
| 1.00am GMT01:00 | 1.00am GMT01:00 |
| Dust off your calculators .. | Dust off your calculators .. |
| Greetings and welcome to today’s live coverage of the mid year economic and fiscal outlook. Yes I know we folded Politics Live in the final sitting week of parliament but MYEFO beckons. I did hint we might be back, and boom, here we are. Boom. Yes, carrying on now. | Greetings and welcome to today’s live coverage of the mid year economic and fiscal outlook. Yes I know we folded Politics Live in the final sitting week of parliament but MYEFO beckons. I did hint we might be back, and boom, here we are. Boom. Yes, carrying on now. |
| Regular readers will require no introduction to today’s festivities, but in case you are not a hard core politics tragic, merely curious, idly exploring the interwebs at your desk at a time of year when many people are now just pretending to work in order to fill up the hours ahead of the latest work Christmas lunch before bolting home early ... welcome to MYEFO. | Regular readers will require no introduction to today’s festivities, but in case you are not a hard core politics tragic, merely curious, idly exploring the interwebs at your desk at a time of year when many people are now just pretending to work in order to fill up the hours ahead of the latest work Christmas lunch before bolting home early ... welcome to MYEFO. |
| Under the charter of budget honesty, the government is required to update the national economic and fiscal outlook six months after the release of the budget. As well as revising key forecasts, MYEFO accounts for all of the decisions taken since the budget that affect either spending or revenue. | Under the charter of budget honesty, the government is required to update the national economic and fiscal outlook six months after the release of the budget. As well as revising key forecasts, MYEFO accounts for all of the decisions taken since the budget that affect either spending or revenue. |
| It’s a little early Christmas present that lobs about this time each year, generally content rich, with bonus charts. | It’s a little early Christmas present that lobs about this time each year, generally content rich, with bonus charts. |
| MYEFO, December 2015 is not expected to be spectacular news for tidy souls who like their columns to add up and contain no red ink. Early mail suggests debt up, deficits up, growth down, and some pruning of expenditures in order to offset more than $5bn the government has spent since the budget. | MYEFO, December 2015 is not expected to be spectacular news for tidy souls who like their columns to add up and contain no red ink. Early mail suggests debt up, deficits up, growth down, and some pruning of expenditures in order to offset more than $5bn the government has spent since the budget. |
| Remember that “budget emergency” the Liberals used to talk about when campaigning for government? Well, two years into their term in office, it’s still with us. But the official terminology has changed now that it’s the government’s budget emergency and not Labor’s budget emergency. Now the government talks about the challenges associated with the economy rebalancing, because that’s much more soothing. | Remember that “budget emergency” the Liberals used to talk about when campaigning for government? Well, two years into their term in office, it’s still with us. But the official terminology has changed now that it’s the government’s budget emergency and not Labor’s budget emergency. Now the government talks about the challenges associated with the economy rebalancing, because that’s much more soothing. |
| A couple of procedural things before we set the scene and then embark on the live coverage. | A couple of procedural things before we set the scene and then embark on the live coverage. |
| You don’t have to wait for any of us. The Politics Live comment thread is open for your business and you can find me on the twitters @murpharoo where I apparently share fan fiction and other regular insights, mainly about politics, and sometimes about my cat. These contributions are variously characterised as very helpful or not at all helpful, usually simultaneously. Feel free to join the conversation there. It’s generally a hoot. | You don’t have to wait for any of us. The Politics Live comment thread is open for your business and you can find me on the twitters @murpharoo where I apparently share fan fiction and other regular insights, mainly about politics, and sometimes about my cat. These contributions are variously characterised as very helpful or not at all helpful, usually simultaneously. Feel free to join the conversation there. It’s generally a hoot. |
| So chop chop, let’s tune the analytical hamstrings. Refresh the teapot, help yourself to a dainty mince tart. Here comes MYEFO. | So chop chop, let’s tune the analytical hamstrings. Refresh the teapot, help yourself to a dainty mince tart. Here comes MYEFO. |