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| Republicans swarm New Hampshire as poll puts Trump 20 points up – live | Republicans swarm New Hampshire as poll puts Trump 20 points up – live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 4.37pm GMT | |
| 16:37 | |
| Donald Trump’s lead in polling averages in New Hampshire is 20 points – but steadily strengthening showings by Ohio governor John Kasich are creating buzz that he may have a shot in the Granite State. | |
| “Kasich is banking on New Hampshire’s peculiar primary rules, which allow independents to vote in the Republican primary,” writes my colleague Scott Bixby. “His moderation is on full display during a week-long tour across bluer parts of the state - Kasich is stumping primarily in counties that Barack Obama won during the last presidential election. With 44% of the Granite State’s voters registered as independents, Kasich has a huge (yuge?) opportunity with non-traditional GOP voters.” | |
| The Kasich camp is out with a new ad in which the candidate’s wife, Karen Waldbillig, says, “We really need your help to keep this momentum going.” It’s a series of nice family scenes from the New Hampshire primary trail: | |
| Related: Donald Trump widens lead to 20 points over Ted Cruz in New Hampshire | |
| Updated | |
| at 4.44pm GMT | |
| 4.25pm GMT | |
| 16:25 | |
| The governor meets the president after Superstorm Sandy but before the 2012 election. Senator Paul submits the picture without comment. We’d submit that this isn’t much of a hug. | |
| In honor of #NationalHugDay. Submitted without comment. pic.twitter.com/XU1ykhe79f | |
| 4.21pm GMT | 4.21pm GMT |
| 16:21 | 16:21 |
| David Smith | David Smith |
| Presidential contender Chris Christie has resisted demands to “smack” Donald Trump as the Republican party establishment panics over the billionaire celebrity’s seemingly unstoppable rise, writes the Guardian’s David Smith: | Presidential contender Chris Christie has resisted demands to “smack” Donald Trump as the Republican party establishment panics over the billionaire celebrity’s seemingly unstoppable rise, writes the Guardian’s David Smith: |
| ... frustration is mounting amid fears that the Republican party could tear itself apart, yet only Jeb Bush has attacked Trump head on. Christie, hosting a town hall event in Derry, was confronted by a female US army veteran who asked:“When are you going to take the gloves off and start smacking him around? You don’t have much time.” | ... frustration is mounting amid fears that the Republican party could tear itself apart, yet only Jeb Bush has attacked Trump head on. Christie, hosting a town hall event in Derry, was confronted by a female US army veteran who asked:“When are you going to take the gloves off and start smacking him around? You don’t have much time.” |
| Often described as pugnacious, Christie elicited audience laughter by replying: “You know, I think it’s the first time in my political career that people have said to me you’re not aggressive enough.” | Often described as pugnacious, Christie elicited audience laughter by replying: “You know, I think it’s the first time in my political career that people have said to me you’re not aggressive enough.” |
| He went on: “Listen, you know when I will? When I think it makes sense to. I’m not in this to just beat Donald Trump. I’m in this to become president of the United States and I’m going to make certain decisions about when I want to say what I’m going to say.” | He went on: “Listen, you know when I will? When I think it makes sense to. I’m not in this to just beat Donald Trump. I’m in this to become president of the United States and I’m going to make certain decisions about when I want to say what I’m going to say.” |
| Read the full piece here. | Read the full piece here. |
| 4.11pm GMT | 4.11pm GMT |
| 16:11 | 16:11 |
| The Twitter timeline of Ted Cruz’s former Princeton University roommate – who is not a Ted Cruz fan – is worth a browse: | The Twitter timeline of Ted Cruz’s former Princeton University roommate – who is not a Ted Cruz fan – is worth a browse: |
| I have 30k followers now, and all I had to do was be stuck in a room with Ted Cruz for a year. I'm sure you're all nice, but SO NOT WORTH IT | I have 30k followers now, and all I had to do was be stuck in a room with Ted Cruz for a year. I'm sure you're all nice, but SO NOT WORTH IT |
| I'm not a journalist. I'm just a guy who experienced 1000 times the safe level of Cruz exposure. #permanentlywarped https://t.co/PHVxwHrwBz | I'm not a journalist. I'm just a guy who experienced 1000 times the safe level of Cruz exposure. #permanentlywarped https://t.co/PHVxwHrwBz |
| 3.55pm GMT | 3.55pm GMT |
| 15:55 | 15:55 |
| Sounds fun! | Sounds fun! |
| New GFS model coming in right now absolutely crushes DC. Historic, mind-boggling snow amounts simulated. Today is day to prep. | New GFS model coming in right now absolutely crushes DC. Historic, mind-boggling snow amounts simulated. Today is day to prep. |
| 3.54pm GMT | 3.54pm GMT |
| 15:54 | 15:54 |
| Trump picks up establishment backing in Arizona. Will the Republican plan to take out Trump turn out to be, “heartily endorse this visionary businessman”? | Trump picks up establishment backing in Arizona. Will the Republican plan to take out Trump turn out to be, “heartily endorse this visionary businessman”? |
| Donald Trump gets his first endorsement from an incumbent statewide elected official, Jeff DeWit, State Treasurer of Arizona | Donald Trump gets his first endorsement from an incumbent statewide elected official, Jeff DeWit, State Treasurer of Arizona |
| DeWit told the Arizona Republic: | DeWit told the Arizona Republic: |
| As I said when I was a candidate and still say in my speeches, our government needs less politicians and more business leaders who understand the economic principles that can put our country’s finances back on a sustainable path.” | As I said when I was a candidate and still say in my speeches, our government needs less politicians and more business leaders who understand the economic principles that can put our country’s finances back on a sustainable path.” |
| Pretty wild to watch GOP establishment embracing Trump in realtime https://t.co/RHqH0bI890 by @ryangrim @samsteinhp pic.twitter.com/ozAXNIccoe | Pretty wild to watch GOP establishment embracing Trump in realtime https://t.co/RHqH0bI890 by @ryangrim @samsteinhp pic.twitter.com/ozAXNIccoe |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.57pm GMT | at 3.57pm GMT |
| 3.36pm GMT | 3.36pm GMT |
| 15:36 | 15:36 |
| Mona Chalabi | Mona Chalabi |
| Voters don’t expect the nominating races to come out the way that current polling seems to indicate they may come out, writes Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi. “Either Americans aren’t watching polls or else they simply don’t trust them,” Mona writes: | Voters don’t expect the nominating races to come out the way that current polling seems to indicate they may come out, writes Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi. “Either Americans aren’t watching polls or else they simply don’t trust them,” Mona writes: |
| A poll from Loras college this morning puts Donald Trump and Ted Cruz neck-and-neck, with just 1 percentage point separating them in Iowa. There’s nothing particularly surprising about that finding – it’s not far off the average across all Iowa polls, which has Trump at 28%, Cruz at 27% and Rubio trailing at 11%. | A poll from Loras college this morning puts Donald Trump and Ted Cruz neck-and-neck, with just 1 percentage point separating them in Iowa. There’s nothing particularly surprising about that finding – it’s not far off the average across all Iowa polls, which has Trump at 28%, Cruz at 27% and Rubio trailing at 11%. |
| What’s interesting though are the follow-up questions Loras included about expectations. When 1,000 likely 2016 caucus-goers were asked this month who they thought would win Iowa, 38% said Cruz while 29% said Trump. | What’s interesting though are the follow-up questions Loras included about expectations. When 1,000 likely 2016 caucus-goers were asked this month who they thought would win Iowa, 38% said Cruz while 29% said Trump. |
| Those expectations were flipped for the national race, though, where 36% said they thought Trump would be the Republican nominee while only 21% thought Cruz would get the backing of the party. | Those expectations were flipped for the national race, though, where 36% said they thought Trump would be the Republican nominee while only 21% thought Cruz would get the backing of the party. |
| On the Democrat side, a recent survey from YouGov points to a similar gap between expectations and polling data: people think Sanders has much less of a chance in Iowa than polls suggest. Overall, 51% expect Clinton to win Iowa and only 35% think Sanders can while polling averages suggest it will be a much closer race: 47% Clinton and 43% Sanders. | On the Democrat side, a recent survey from YouGov points to a similar gap between expectations and polling data: people think Sanders has much less of a chance in Iowa than polls suggest. Overall, 51% expect Clinton to win Iowa and only 35% think Sanders can while polling averages suggest it will be a much closer race: 47% Clinton and 43% Sanders. |
| One comfort for @HillaryClinton in an anxious January is that expectations have shifted: Even a narrow win in IA would be treated as a plus. | One comfort for @HillaryClinton in an anxious January is that expectations have shifted: Even a narrow win in IA would be treated as a plus. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 4.15pm GMT | at 4.15pm GMT |
| 3.18pm GMT | 3.18pm GMT |
| 15:18 | 15:18 |
| For your planning purposes, we will be posting live video streams of a Trump event in Las Vegas scheduled to begin at | For your planning purposes, we will be posting live video streams of a Trump event in Las Vegas scheduled to begin at |
| 11.30am ET | 11.30am ET |
| [changed to] 4.30pm ET, and a Clinton event in Iowa scheduled to begin at about 12.30pm ET. | [changed to] 4.30pm ET, and a Clinton event in Iowa scheduled to begin at about 12.30pm ET. |
| Have you heard their stump speeches yet? Do you already know them by heart? Let’s watch! | Have you heard their stump speeches yet? Do you already know them by heart? Let’s watch! |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.37pm GMT | at 3.37pm GMT |
| 3.09pm GMT | 3.09pm GMT |
| 15:09 | 15:09 |
| Adam Gabbatt | Adam Gabbatt |
| Republican candidate Carly Fiorina has been accused of “ambushing” a group of children, after she ushered pre-schoolers, who were on a field trip to a botanical garden, into an anti-abortion rally in Des Moines, the Guardian’s Adam Gabbatt reports: | Republican candidate Carly Fiorina has been accused of “ambushing” a group of children, after she ushered pre-schoolers, who were on a field trip to a botanical garden, into an anti-abortion rally in Des Moines, the Guardian’s Adam Gabbatt reports: |
| The alleged ambush occurred when Fiorina hosted a “right to life” forum at the Greater Des Moines botanical garden. Entering the rally, before a crowd of about 60 people, she directed around 15 young children towards a makeshift stage. | The alleged ambush occurred when Fiorina hosted a “right to life” forum at the Greater Des Moines botanical garden. Entering the rally, before a crowd of about 60 people, she directed around 15 young children towards a makeshift stage. |
| The problem, one parent said, was that the children’s parents had not given Fiorina permission to have their children sit with her – in front of a huge banner bearing the image of an unborn foetus – while she talked about harvesting organs from aborted babies. | The problem, one parent said, was that the children’s parents had not given Fiorina permission to have their children sit with her – in front of a huge banner bearing the image of an unborn foetus – while she talked about harvesting organs from aborted babies. |
| “The kids went there to see the plants,” said Chris Beck, the father of four-year-old Chatham, one of the children Fiorina appeared with. “She ambushed my son’s field trip.” | “The kids went there to see the plants,” said Chris Beck, the father of four-year-old Chatham, one of the children Fiorina appeared with. “She ambushed my son’s field trip.” |
| Read the full piece here. | Read the full piece here. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.10pm GMT | at 3.10pm GMT |
| 2.03pm GMT | 2.03pm GMT |
| 14:03 | 14:03 |
| Hello and welcome to our live-wire, minute-to-minute coverage of the 2016 presidential election. | Hello and welcome to our live-wire, minute-to-minute coverage of the 2016 presidential election. |
| It’s an interesting mix today, with Guardian reporters following Hillary Clinton and Ben Carson in Iowa, Donald Trump and Bill Clinton in Nevada and no fewer than four Republican candidates in New Hampshire – Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Democrat Bernie Sanders is also campaigning in the Granite State. | It’s an interesting mix today, with Guardian reporters following Hillary Clinton and Ben Carson in Iowa, Donald Trump and Bill Clinton in Nevada and no fewer than four Republican candidates in New Hampshire – Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Democrat Bernie Sanders is also campaigning in the Granite State. |
| In a new ad to air in Iowa, Sanders has gone full Simon & Garfunkel: | In a new ad to air in Iowa, Sanders has gone full Simon & Garfunkel: |
| Donald Trump dished last night on CNN on what it was like to stand next to Sarah Palin during the rambling 20-minute speech she gave to endorse him on Tuesday. | Donald Trump dished last night on CNN on what it was like to stand next to Sarah Palin during the rambling 20-minute speech she gave to endorse him on Tuesday. |
| “I didn’t know it was going to be quite that long,” Trump said. | “I didn’t know it was going to be quite that long,” Trump said. |
| … but she made a beautiful, you know, she made a very good speech. No, I wasn’t uncomfortable – I was very happy. I would have normally left the stage and let her speak … I thought it would be disrespectful to her if I left the stage. So, no, I wasn’t uncomfortable at all.” | … but she made a beautiful, you know, she made a very good speech. No, I wasn’t uncomfortable – I was very happy. I would have normally left the stage and let her speak … I thought it would be disrespectful to her if I left the stage. So, no, I wasn’t uncomfortable at all.” |
| He doesn’t look uncomfortable in this mashup: | He doesn’t look uncomfortable in this mashup: |
| Trump spent part of Wednesday hammering Texas senator Ted Cruz, seemingly his closest rival in Iowa, which votes in just 11 days’ time. | Trump spent part of Wednesday hammering Texas senator Ted Cruz, seemingly his closest rival in Iowa, which votes in just 11 days’ time. |
| This morning it appears the Republican establishment has picked a horse in the Trump-Cruz race – and it is Trump. Bob Dole, the former senator and presidential nominee, told the New York Times Republicans would suffer “cataclysmic” losses with Cruz and that Trump would be better. | This morning it appears the Republican establishment has picked a horse in the Trump-Cruz race – and it is Trump. Bob Dole, the former senator and presidential nominee, told the New York Times Republicans would suffer “cataclysmic” losses with Cruz and that Trump would be better. |
| Trent Lott, the former Senate majority leader, told the Atlantic he’d take Trump over Cruz if he had to choose. Trump himself pointed out that “Everybody dislikes [Cruz]. I mean, he’s a nasty guy that everybody dislikes.” | Trent Lott, the former Senate majority leader, told the Atlantic he’d take Trump over Cruz if he had to choose. Trump himself pointed out that “Everybody dislikes [Cruz]. I mean, he’s a nasty guy that everybody dislikes.” |
| Cruz hit back, saying there actually is a new alignment between Trump and the establishment – difficult to argue, except in the case of a Trump-Cruz race – and trying to use it against Trump. | Cruz hit back, saying there actually is a new alignment between Trump and the establishment – difficult to argue, except in the case of a Trump-Cruz race – and trying to use it against Trump. |
| “Right now the Washington establishment is abandoning Marco Rubio, they made an assessment that Marco can’t win this race, and the Washington establishment is rushing over to support Donald Trump,” Cruz told Politico. | “Right now the Washington establishment is abandoning Marco Rubio, they made an assessment that Marco can’t win this race, and the Washington establishment is rushing over to support Donald Trump,” Cruz told Politico. |
| We’re seeing that happen every day and Mr Trump is welcoming the support of the Washington establishment. | We’re seeing that happen every day and Mr Trump is welcoming the support of the Washington establishment. |
| In other news, Ben Carson resumes campaign activities today after the death on Tuesday of a volunteer, in a van crash. | In other news, Ben Carson resumes campaign activities today after the death on Tuesday of a volunteer, in a van crash. |
| At the state level, last night emails released to the public indicated that Michigan governor Rick Snyder was informed of water quality issues in the city of Flint as early as February 2015 but his administration struck a dismissive tone, saying the problems would eventually “fade in the rearview”. | At the state level, last night emails released to the public indicated that Michigan governor Rick Snyder was informed of water quality issues in the city of Flint as early as February 2015 but his administration struck a dismissive tone, saying the problems would eventually “fade in the rearview”. |
| Related: Flint water crisis: emails reveal governor Snyder informed of problems a year ago | Related: Flint water crisis: emails reveal governor Snyder informed of problems a year ago |
| And that blizzard bearing down on Washington DC and perhaps NYC – it’s still coming... | And that blizzard bearing down on Washington DC and perhaps NYC – it’s still coming... |
| That moment when topical news and commentary intersect pic.twitter.com/YPjJwqrbRK | That moment when topical news and commentary intersect pic.twitter.com/YPjJwqrbRK |