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Hillary Clinton attacks Sanders on healthcare in Iowa – campaign live Hillary Clinton attacks Sanders on healthcare in Iowa – campaign live
(about 1 hour later)
8.06pm GMT
20:06
Dan Roberts
Despite some new polls showing Bernie Sanders ahead in New Hampshire by as much as 27 points, there is an air of realism at his first campaign stop since the latest surge captured headlines here, writes Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts:
The meeting with seniors at the Peterborough community center reflected a conscious push by the campaign to bolster support among older voters, whose undeniable interest in the 74-year-old has been somewhat eclipsed by the more vocal enthusiasm Sanders generally receives from students and younger voters.
“He cares about us older folks – he is one of us you know,” says Merry Stockwell, a volunteer who introduced the senator from neighbouring Vermont to this retirement community an hour or so north of Boston.
“I believe in what he is saying, I’m just not sure how much of it he is going to be able to achieve,” said Ruth, a 68-year-old retired educator from the nearby town of Antrim, who is one of the many voters in the state still to make up their minds.
Though equally sceptical about Hillary Clinton – “Hillary has got a lot of baggage” – she shrugs when asked what might convince her that Sanders can realistically take on Republicans and win the White House.
Read the full piece here.
Related: Bernie Sanders cites New Hampshire lead as he makes case for White House
7.57pm GMT
19:57
Snyder to face Congress
Congress wants to hear from the governor of Michigan about poisonous drinking water in the town of Flint:
BREAKING: Rick Snyder will testify in front of Congress on Feb. 3 https://t.co/iwW2OzfjuG
Read Joanna Walters’ profile of Snyder here:
Related: Flint water crisis: governor's brand of corporate politics set stage for disaster
7.05pm GMT7.05pm GMT
19:0519:05
The Guardian’s David Smith is following Ted Cruz at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire:The Guardian’s David Smith is following Ted Cruz at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire:
Ted Cruz: I love New Hampshire but it is cold. I have to admit I’ve taken my cowboy boots off.Ted Cruz: I love New Hampshire but it is cold. I have to admit I’ve taken my cowboy boots off.
Cruz: “I am really encouraged what we’re seeing on the ground. We are running in New Hampshire a grassroots campaign.”Cruz: “I am really encouraged what we’re seeing on the ground. We are running in New Hampshire a grassroots campaign.”
Cruz: What’s great in New Hampshire is that every one of you is performing a service to Americans.Cruz: What’s great in New Hampshire is that every one of you is performing a service to Americans.
Cruz: Playing Monopoly is the closest I've ever been to being Donald Trump. I drive my wife mad by playing iPhone games.Cruz: Playing Monopoly is the closest I've ever been to being Donald Trump. I drive my wife mad by playing iPhone games.
Cruz on fantasy dinner party: Sitting down with Jesus Christ would be an amazing experience.Cruz on fantasy dinner party: Sitting down with Jesus Christ would be an amazing experience.
That would be amazing.That would be amazing.
6.52pm GMT6.52pm GMT
18:5218:52
Adam Gabbatt prepares to check out the other Brooklyn.Adam Gabbatt prepares to check out the other Brooklyn.
Is Brooklyn, Iowa, for Bernie? I'm about to find out pic.twitter.com/JCPG0OrU7EIs Brooklyn, Iowa, for Bernie? I'm about to find out pic.twitter.com/JCPG0OrU7E
6.16pm GMT6.16pm GMT
18:1618:16
Clinton sends army of surrogates to IowaClinton sends army of surrogates to Iowa
Lauren GambinoLauren Gambino
There’s probably no one in the race who could (literally, not figuratively) win a shouting match against Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, whose trademark is a full-throated tirade against the billionaire class, writes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino:There’s probably no one in the race who could (literally, not figuratively) win a shouting match against Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, whose trademark is a full-throated tirade against the billionaire class, writes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino:
But locked in a tight race with just days to go before voting begins, Hillary Clinton is dispatching actors, athletes, musicians, politicians, activists and family members across the Hawkeye state to help her turn up the volume on the campaign trail.But locked in a tight race with just days to go before voting begins, Hillary Clinton is dispatching actors, athletes, musicians, politicians, activists and family members across the Hawkeye state to help her turn up the volume on the campaign trail.
In lieu of the former secretary of state, Iowans can catch Julián Castro, former mayor of San Antonio and secretary of Housing and Urban Development; actress and activists Jamie Lee Curtis; athlete and activist Billie Jean King; Cecile Richards, president of Planned Parenthood Action Fund; Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York; Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia; Stephanie Schriock, President of EMILY’s List; Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey; and Scandal actor Tony Goldwyn.In lieu of the former secretary of state, Iowans can catch Julián Castro, former mayor of San Antonio and secretary of Housing and Urban Development; actress and activists Jamie Lee Curtis; athlete and activist Billie Jean King; Cecile Richards, president of Planned Parenthood Action Fund; Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York; Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia; Stephanie Schriock, President of EMILY’s List; Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey; and Scandal actor Tony Goldwyn.
Clinton has even more politicians, entertainers and athletes – plus husband Bill and daughter Chelsea – fanning out across other key early-voting states, including New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada in the coming days and weeks.Clinton has even more politicians, entertainers and athletes – plus husband Bill and daughter Chelsea – fanning out across other key early-voting states, including New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada in the coming days and weeks.
A much smaller group of surrogates will hit the trail on Sanders’ behalf. They include rapper and activist Killer Mike; professor Cornel West; Ben Cohen, co-founder of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream; and climate activist Bill McKibben, to name a few.A much smaller group of surrogates will hit the trail on Sanders’ behalf. They include rapper and activist Killer Mike; professor Cornel West; Ben Cohen, co-founder of Ben & Jerry’s ice cream; and climate activist Bill McKibben, to name a few.
6.03pm GMT6.03pm GMT
18:0318:03
“People accuse me of playing the gender card,” Clinton says. “Well, if fighting for women’s health, and equal rights, and equal pay is paying the gender card – deal me in.”“People accuse me of playing the gender card,” Clinton says. “Well, if fighting for women’s health, and equal rights, and equal pay is paying the gender card – deal me in.”
5.57pm GMT5.57pm GMT
17:5717:57
Clinton attacks Sanders on health careClinton attacks Sanders on health care
Atop the blog, live now: Hillary Clinton on the stump in Indianola, Iowa. She’s taking it to Sanders on health care.Atop the blog, live now: Hillary Clinton on the stump in Indianola, Iowa. She’s taking it to Sanders on health care.
“Senator Sanders and I share many of the same goals,” Clinton says, but they have different ways of going about them.“Senator Sanders and I share many of the same goals,” Clinton says, but they have different ways of going about them.
“Take health care,” she says. “I want us to defend and build on the progress we have made under president Obama with the Affordable Care Act. ... I want to keep going, keep expanding coverage to more people.“Take health care,” she says. “I want us to defend and build on the progress we have made under president Obama with the Affordable Care Act. ... I want to keep going, keep expanding coverage to more people.
“We can get this done without another divisive debate about our entire health care system and without giving Republicans a window to tear down” what we’ve built.“We can get this done without another divisive debate about our entire health care system and without giving Republicans a window to tear down” what we’ve built.
“Rather than build on the progress we’ve made,” Clinton continues, “[Sanders] wants to start over from scratch with a whole new system.“Rather than build on the progress we’ve made,” Clinton continues, “[Sanders] wants to start over from scratch with a whole new system.
“In theory, there’s a lot to like about some of his ideas, but in theory isn’t enough. A president has to deliver in reality.”“In theory, there’s a lot to like about some of his ideas, but in theory isn’t enough. A president has to deliver in reality.”
New Clinton argument: Sanders has been in Washington for 25 years, hasn't gotten 1 vote on his health care plan.New Clinton argument: Sanders has been in Washington for 25 years, hasn't gotten 1 vote on his health care plan.
UpdatedUpdated
at 6.00pm GMTat 6.00pm GMT
5.50pm GMT5.50pm GMT
17:5017:50
The campaign of former governor Mike Huckabee has announced that the Republican candidate will be performing with 80’s rock band FireHouse at the Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake, Iowa, tomorrow night.The campaign of former governor Mike Huckabee has announced that the Republican candidate will be performing with 80’s rock band FireHouse at the Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake, Iowa, tomorrow night.
“I’m thrilled about rocking-out with FireHouse in one of the coolest music venues in the world,” Huckabee says in a statement. “We want everyone to come out and join us for some great music and great times.”“I’m thrilled about rocking-out with FireHouse in one of the coolest music venues in the world,” Huckabee says in a statement. “We want everyone to come out and join us for some great music and great times.”
It’s strange that the Huckabee press release says the former governor will “shred base guitar” – as it’s properly a bass guitar and not shreddable so much as slappable. Anyway this is FireHouse:It’s strange that the Huckabee press release says the former governor will “shred base guitar” – as it’s properly a bass guitar and not shreddable so much as slappable. Anyway this is FireHouse:
(h/t: @bencjacobs)(h/t: @bencjacobs)
5.44pm GMT5.44pm GMT
17:4417:44
Adam GabbattAdam Gabbatt
The Guardian’s Adam Gabbatt is on the trail in Iowa, where he checks in with some Nurses for Bernie – and prepares himself for a Demi Lovato performance in support of Clinton.The Guardian’s Adam Gabbatt is on the trail in Iowa, where he checks in with some Nurses for Bernie – and prepares himself for a Demi Lovato performance in support of Clinton.
“I met up with some people from National Nurses United yesterday,” Adam writes:“I met up with some people from National Nurses United yesterday,” Adam writes:
They’ve got themselves a big bus and they have been following Bernie Sanders all over Iowa. They’ll be trekking across the state until the caucuses on February 1.They’ve got themselves a big bus and they have been following Bernie Sanders all over Iowa. They’ll be trekking across the state until the caucuses on February 1.
Jean Ross is one of the organisation’s co-chairs. She is from Minnesota. But she really likes Bernie so she has flown south for the winter.Jean Ross is one of the organisation’s co-chairs. She is from Minnesota. But she really likes Bernie so she has flown south for the winter.
She said the nurses have been signing people up for caucuses: “And basically explaining to them why the nation’s most trusted profession supports Bernie”.She said the nurses have been signing people up for caucuses: “And basically explaining to them why the nation’s most trusted profession supports Bernie”.
They’re averaging about four cities a day. I told Ross that the schedule sounded exhausting.They’re averaging about four cities a day. I told Ross that the schedule sounded exhausting.
“Have you every seen nurses work!?” she said.“Have you every seen nurses work!?” she said.
Here’s their bus, right behind Bernie’s:Here’s their bus, right behind Bernie’s:
Tonight I’ll be in Iowa City, where Demi Lovato is performing at a Hillary Clinton rally. It should be exciting. I have never seen Demi Lovato live before.Tonight I’ll be in Iowa City, where Demi Lovato is performing at a Hillary Clinton rally. It should be exciting. I have never seen Demi Lovato live before.
My favourite tune from her extensive back catalogue is “Give Your Heart A Break”. It’s really good.My favourite tune from her extensive back catalogue is “Give Your Heart A Break”. It’s really good.
5.23pm GMT5.23pm GMT
17:2317:23
The Clinton camp is out with a new video in which foreign policy adviser Jake Sullivan picks apart what he says are flaws in rival Bernie Sanders’ thinking on foreign policy.The Clinton camp is out with a new video in which foreign policy adviser Jake Sullivan picks apart what he says are flaws in rival Bernie Sanders’ thinking on foreign policy.
The video is a model of calm argumentation. Sullivan sits in a cubicle at what looks like campaign headquarters and speaks directly to camera. “I have the greatest respect for senator Sanders,” he says, “but when you look at the rest of his ideas, they just don’t make a lot of sense.”The video is a model of calm argumentation. Sullivan sits in a cubicle at what looks like campaign headquarters and speaks directly to camera. “I have the greatest respect for senator Sanders,” he says, “but when you look at the rest of his ideas, they just don’t make a lot of sense.”
The video follows the release on Tuesday of a letter sent by 10 former senior US diplomats and national security officials calling Sanders’s foreign policy agenda “troubling” and “puzzling.”The video follows the release on Tuesday of a letter sent by 10 former senior US diplomats and national security officials calling Sanders’s foreign policy agenda “troubling” and “puzzling.”
Sanders replied to the letter by pointing out that “on the crucial foreign policy issue of our time, it turns out that Secretary Clinton – with all of her experience – was wrong and I was right.”Sanders replied to the letter by pointing out that “on the crucial foreign policy issue of our time, it turns out that Secretary Clinton – with all of her experience – was wrong and I was right.”
(h/t: @jeneps)(h/t: @jeneps)
5.11pm GMT5.11pm GMT
17:1117:11
“You say funny ha-ha, I say Honey Boo-Boo, but I also say Honey Nut Cheerios, they’re great!”“You say funny ha-ha, I say Honey Boo-Boo, but I also say Honey Nut Cheerios, they’re great!”
Stephen Colbert turns in a pretty solid Sarah Palin impression, beginning at 4:10 in the clip below. Drawing on Allen Ginsberg’s Howl and Disney’s The Little Mermaid, among other sources for inspiration:Stephen Colbert turns in a pretty solid Sarah Palin impression, beginning at 4:10 in the clip below. Drawing on Allen Ginsberg’s Howl and Disney’s The Little Mermaid, among other sources for inspiration:
(h/t: @aaronblakewp)(h/t: @aaronblakewp)
5.00pm GMT5.00pm GMT
17:0017:00
Planned Parenthood: abortion will be 'defining issue'Planned Parenthood: abortion will be 'defining issue'
Lauren GambinoLauren Gambino
On the 43rd anniversary of Roe v Wade, Planned Parenthood president Cecile Richards said there has never been a more important election for women’s rights, writes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino:On the 43rd anniversary of Roe v Wade, Planned Parenthood president Cecile Richards said there has never been a more important election for women’s rights, writes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino:
“There’s never been an election in which Roe was more clearly on the ballot,” Richards told reporters on Thursday. “I do think it’s going to be a defining issue for voters all across the country.”“There’s never been an election in which Roe was more clearly on the ballot,” Richards told reporters on Thursday. “I do think it’s going to be a defining issue for voters all across the country.”
At least one and as many as four supreme court appointments are likely to fall to the next president. A conservative majority could overturn Roe V Wade, the 1973 decision protecting a woman’s right to choose.At least one and as many as four supreme court appointments are likely to fall to the next president. A conservative majority could overturn Roe V Wade, the 1973 decision protecting a woman’s right to choose.
“Young people in America cannot imagine, and are only now beginning to come to grips with the fact, that there are folks in this country who are either in elective office or are trying to get into elective office that would take away a right that has been the law of the land now for more than 40 years,” Richards said. “It’s been an enormous wake-up call.”“Young people in America cannot imagine, and are only now beginning to come to grips with the fact, that there are folks in this country who are either in elective office or are trying to get into elective office that would take away a right that has been the law of the land now for more than 40 years,” Richards said. “It’s been an enormous wake-up call.”
Planned Parenthood has endorsed Hillary Clinton for president, the organization’s first-ever primary endorsement in its century-long existence.Planned Parenthood has endorsed Hillary Clinton for president, the organization’s first-ever primary endorsement in its century-long existence.
On Wednesday, Clinton’s rival, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, deemed Planned Parenthood and the host of other liberal organizations and labor unions backing Clinton part of the “establishment”.On Wednesday, Clinton’s rival, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, deemed Planned Parenthood and the host of other liberal organizations and labor unions backing Clinton part of the “establishment”.
Sanders said on MSNBC that his campaign is not only taking on Wall Street and the economic elite, but the “political establishment” as well.Sanders said on MSNBC that his campaign is not only taking on Wall Street and the economic elite, but the “political establishment” as well.
“I have friends and supporters in the Human Rights Fund and Planned Parenthood,” Sanders said, referring to two organizations that have endorsed Clinton. “But you know what? Hillary Clinton has been around there for a very, very long time. Some of these groups are, in fact, part of the establishment.”“I have friends and supporters in the Human Rights Fund and Planned Parenthood,” Sanders said, referring to two organizations that have endorsed Clinton. “But you know what? Hillary Clinton has been around there for a very, very long time. Some of these groups are, in fact, part of the establishment.”
Clinton quickly hit back, defending Planned Parenthood: “I wish it were [establishment]. If it were part of the establishment, we wouldn’t have to work so hard to protect it.”Clinton quickly hit back, defending Planned Parenthood: “I wish it were [establishment]. If it were part of the establishment, we wouldn’t have to work so hard to protect it.”
Related: Planned Parenthood's Cecile Richards: 'In this election, Roe v Wade is on the ballot'Related: Planned Parenthood's Cecile Richards: 'In this election, Roe v Wade is on the ballot'
4.37pm GMT4.37pm GMT
16:3716:37
Donald Trump’s lead in polling averages in New Hampshire is 20 points – but steadily strengthening showings by Ohio governor John Kasich are creating buzz that he may have a shot in the Granite State.Donald Trump’s lead in polling averages in New Hampshire is 20 points – but steadily strengthening showings by Ohio governor John Kasich are creating buzz that he may have a shot in the Granite State.
“Kasich is banking on New Hampshire’s peculiar primary rules, which allow independents to vote in the Republican primary,” writes my colleague Scott Bixby. “His moderation is on full display during a week-long tour across bluer parts of the state - Kasich is stumping primarily in counties that Barack Obama won during the last presidential election. With 44% of the Granite State’s voters registered as independents, Kasich has a huge (yuge?) opportunity with non-traditional GOP voters.”“Kasich is banking on New Hampshire’s peculiar primary rules, which allow independents to vote in the Republican primary,” writes my colleague Scott Bixby. “His moderation is on full display during a week-long tour across bluer parts of the state - Kasich is stumping primarily in counties that Barack Obama won during the last presidential election. With 44% of the Granite State’s voters registered as independents, Kasich has a huge (yuge?) opportunity with non-traditional GOP voters.”
The Kasich camp is out with a new ad in which the candidate’s wife, Karen Waldbillig, says, “We really need your help to keep this momentum going.” It’s a series of nice family scenes from the New Hampshire primary trail:The Kasich camp is out with a new ad in which the candidate’s wife, Karen Waldbillig, says, “We really need your help to keep this momentum going.” It’s a series of nice family scenes from the New Hampshire primary trail:
Related: Donald Trump widens lead to 20 points over Ted Cruz in New HampshireRelated: Donald Trump widens lead to 20 points over Ted Cruz in New Hampshire
UpdatedUpdated
at 4.44pm GMTat 4.44pm GMT
4.25pm GMT4.25pm GMT
16:2516:25
The governor meets the president after Superstorm Sandy but before the 2012 election. Senator Paul submits the picture without comment. We’d submit that this isn’t much of a hug.The governor meets the president after Superstorm Sandy but before the 2012 election. Senator Paul submits the picture without comment. We’d submit that this isn’t much of a hug.
In honor of #NationalHugDay. Submitted without comment. pic.twitter.com/XU1ykhe79fIn honor of #NationalHugDay. Submitted without comment. pic.twitter.com/XU1ykhe79f
4.21pm GMT4.21pm GMT
16:2116:21
David SmithDavid Smith
Presidential contender Chris Christie has resisted demands to “smack” Donald Trump as the Republican party establishment panics over the billionaire celebrity’s seemingly unstoppable rise, writes the Guardian’s David Smith:Presidential contender Chris Christie has resisted demands to “smack” Donald Trump as the Republican party establishment panics over the billionaire celebrity’s seemingly unstoppable rise, writes the Guardian’s David Smith:
... frustration is mounting amid fears that the Republican party could tear itself apart, yet only Jeb Bush has attacked Trump head on. Christie, hosting a town hall event in Derry, was confronted by a female US army veteran who asked:“When are you going to take the gloves off and start smacking him around? You don’t have much time.”... frustration is mounting amid fears that the Republican party could tear itself apart, yet only Jeb Bush has attacked Trump head on. Christie, hosting a town hall event in Derry, was confronted by a female US army veteran who asked:“When are you going to take the gloves off and start smacking him around? You don’t have much time.”
Often described as pugnacious, Christie elicited audience laughter by replying: “You know, I think it’s the first time in my political career that people have said to me you’re not aggressive enough.”Often described as pugnacious, Christie elicited audience laughter by replying: “You know, I think it’s the first time in my political career that people have said to me you’re not aggressive enough.”
He went on: “Listen, you know when I will? When I think it makes sense to. I’m not in this to just beat Donald Trump. I’m in this to become president of the United States and I’m going to make certain decisions about when I want to say what I’m going to say.”He went on: “Listen, you know when I will? When I think it makes sense to. I’m not in this to just beat Donald Trump. I’m in this to become president of the United States and I’m going to make certain decisions about when I want to say what I’m going to say.”
Read the full piece here.Read the full piece here.
4.11pm GMT4.11pm GMT
16:1116:11
The Twitter timeline of Ted Cruz’s former Princeton University roommate – who is not a Ted Cruz fan – is worth a browse:The Twitter timeline of Ted Cruz’s former Princeton University roommate – who is not a Ted Cruz fan – is worth a browse:
I have 30k followers now, and all I had to do was be stuck in a room with Ted Cruz for a year. I'm sure you're all nice, but SO NOT WORTH ITI have 30k followers now, and all I had to do was be stuck in a room with Ted Cruz for a year. I'm sure you're all nice, but SO NOT WORTH IT
I'm not a journalist. I'm just a guy who experienced 1000 times the safe level of Cruz exposure. #permanentlywarped https://t.co/PHVxwHrwBzI'm not a journalist. I'm just a guy who experienced 1000 times the safe level of Cruz exposure. #permanentlywarped https://t.co/PHVxwHrwBz
3.55pm GMT3.55pm GMT
15:5515:55
Sounds fun!Sounds fun!
New GFS model coming in right now absolutely crushes DC. Historic, mind-boggling snow amounts simulated. Today is day to prep.New GFS model coming in right now absolutely crushes DC. Historic, mind-boggling snow amounts simulated. Today is day to prep.
3.54pm GMT3.54pm GMT
15:5415:54
Trump picks up establishment backing in Arizona. Will the Republican plan to take out Trump turn out to be, “heartily endorse this visionary businessman”?Trump picks up establishment backing in Arizona. Will the Republican plan to take out Trump turn out to be, “heartily endorse this visionary businessman”?
Donald Trump gets his first endorsement from an incumbent statewide elected official, Jeff DeWit, State Treasurer of ArizonaDonald Trump gets his first endorsement from an incumbent statewide elected official, Jeff DeWit, State Treasurer of Arizona
DeWit told the Arizona Republic:DeWit told the Arizona Republic:
As I said when I was a candidate and still say in my speeches, our government needs less politicians and more business leaders who understand the economic principles that can put our country’s finances back on a sustainable path.”As I said when I was a candidate and still say in my speeches, our government needs less politicians and more business leaders who understand the economic principles that can put our country’s finances back on a sustainable path.”
Pretty wild to watch GOP establishment embracing Trump in realtime https://t.co/RHqH0bI890 by @ryangrim @samsteinhp pic.twitter.com/ozAXNIccoePretty wild to watch GOP establishment embracing Trump in realtime https://t.co/RHqH0bI890 by @ryangrim @samsteinhp pic.twitter.com/ozAXNIccoe
UpdatedUpdated
at 3.57pm GMTat 3.57pm GMT
3.36pm GMT3.36pm GMT
15:3615:36
Mona ChalabiMona Chalabi
Voters don’t expect the nominating races to come out the way that current polling seems to indicate they may come out, writes Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi. “Either Americans aren’t watching polls or else they simply don’t trust them,” Mona writes:Voters don’t expect the nominating races to come out the way that current polling seems to indicate they may come out, writes Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi. “Either Americans aren’t watching polls or else they simply don’t trust them,” Mona writes:
A poll from Loras college this morning puts Donald Trump and Ted Cruz neck-and-neck, with just 1 percentage point separating them in Iowa. There’s nothing particularly surprising about that finding – it’s not far off the average across all Iowa polls, which has Trump at 28%, Cruz at 27% and Rubio trailing at 11%.A poll from Loras college this morning puts Donald Trump and Ted Cruz neck-and-neck, with just 1 percentage point separating them in Iowa. There’s nothing particularly surprising about that finding – it’s not far off the average across all Iowa polls, which has Trump at 28%, Cruz at 27% and Rubio trailing at 11%.
What’s interesting though are the follow-up questions Loras included about expectations. When 1,000 likely 2016 caucus-goers were asked this month who they thought would win Iowa, 38% said Cruz while 29% said Trump.What’s interesting though are the follow-up questions Loras included about expectations. When 1,000 likely 2016 caucus-goers were asked this month who they thought would win Iowa, 38% said Cruz while 29% said Trump.
Those expectations were flipped for the national race, though, where 36% said they thought Trump would be the Republican nominee while only 21% thought Cruz would get the backing of the party.Those expectations were flipped for the national race, though, where 36% said they thought Trump would be the Republican nominee while only 21% thought Cruz would get the backing of the party.
On the Democrat side, a recent survey from YouGov points to a similar gap between expectations and polling data: people think Sanders has much less of a chance in Iowa than polls suggest. Overall, 51% expect Clinton to win Iowa and only 35% think Sanders can while polling averages suggest it will be a much closer race: 47% Clinton and 43% Sanders.On the Democrat side, a recent survey from YouGov points to a similar gap between expectations and polling data: people think Sanders has much less of a chance in Iowa than polls suggest. Overall, 51% expect Clinton to win Iowa and only 35% think Sanders can while polling averages suggest it will be a much closer race: 47% Clinton and 43% Sanders.
One comfort for @HillaryClinton in an anxious January is that expectations have shifted: Even a narrow win in IA would be treated as a plus.One comfort for @HillaryClinton in an anxious January is that expectations have shifted: Even a narrow win in IA would be treated as a plus.
UpdatedUpdated
at 4.15pm GMTat 4.15pm GMT
3.18pm GMT3.18pm GMT
15:1815:18
For your planning purposes, we will be posting live video streams of a Trump event in Las Vegas scheduled to begin atFor your planning purposes, we will be posting live video streams of a Trump event in Las Vegas scheduled to begin at
11.30am ET11.30am ET
[changed to] 4.30pm ET, and a Clinton event in Iowa scheduled to begin at about 12.30pm ET. [changed to] 4.30pm ET, and a Clinton event in Iowa scheduled to begin at about 12.30pm ET.
Have you heard their stump speeches yet? Do you already know them by heart? Let’s watch!Have you heard their stump speeches yet? Do you already know them by heart? Let’s watch!
UpdatedUpdated
at 3.37pm GMTat 3.37pm GMT
3.09pm GMT3.09pm GMT
15:0915:09
Adam GabbattAdam Gabbatt
Republican candidate Carly Fiorina has been accused of “ambushing” a group of children, after she ushered pre-schoolers, who were on a field trip to a botanical garden, into an anti-abortion rally in Des Moines, the Guardian’s Adam Gabbatt reports:Republican candidate Carly Fiorina has been accused of “ambushing” a group of children, after she ushered pre-schoolers, who were on a field trip to a botanical garden, into an anti-abortion rally in Des Moines, the Guardian’s Adam Gabbatt reports:
The alleged ambush occurred when Fiorina hosted a “right to life” forum at the Greater Des Moines botanical garden. Entering the rally, before a crowd of about 60 people, she directed around 15 young children towards a makeshift stage.The alleged ambush occurred when Fiorina hosted a “right to life” forum at the Greater Des Moines botanical garden. Entering the rally, before a crowd of about 60 people, she directed around 15 young children towards a makeshift stage.
The problem, one parent said, was that the children’s parents had not given Fiorina permission to have their children sit with her – in front of a huge banner bearing the image of an unborn foetus – while she talked about harvesting organs from aborted babies.The problem, one parent said, was that the children’s parents had not given Fiorina permission to have their children sit with her – in front of a huge banner bearing the image of an unborn foetus – while she talked about harvesting organs from aborted babies.
“The kids went there to see the plants,” said Chris Beck, the father of four-year-old Chatham, one of the children Fiorina appeared with. “She ambushed my son’s field trip.”“The kids went there to see the plants,” said Chris Beck, the father of four-year-old Chatham, one of the children Fiorina appeared with. “She ambushed my son’s field trip.”
Read the full piece here.Read the full piece here.
UpdatedUpdated
at 3.10pm GMTat 3.10pm GMT
2.03pm GMT2.03pm GMT
14:0314:03
Hello and welcome to our live-wire, minute-to-minute coverage of the 2016 presidential election.Hello and welcome to our live-wire, minute-to-minute coverage of the 2016 presidential election.
It’s an interesting mix today, with Guardian reporters following Hillary Clinton and Ben Carson in Iowa, Donald Trump and Bill Clinton in Nevada and no fewer than four Republican candidates in New Hampshire – Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Democrat Bernie Sanders is also campaigning in the Granite State.It’s an interesting mix today, with Guardian reporters following Hillary Clinton and Ben Carson in Iowa, Donald Trump and Bill Clinton in Nevada and no fewer than four Republican candidates in New Hampshire – Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Democrat Bernie Sanders is also campaigning in the Granite State.
In a new ad to air in Iowa, Sanders has gone full Simon & Garfunkel:In a new ad to air in Iowa, Sanders has gone full Simon & Garfunkel:
Donald Trump dished last night on CNN on what it was like to stand next to Sarah Palin during the rambling 20-minute speech she gave to endorse him on Tuesday.Donald Trump dished last night on CNN on what it was like to stand next to Sarah Palin during the rambling 20-minute speech she gave to endorse him on Tuesday.
“I didn’t know it was going to be quite that long,” Trump said.“I didn’t know it was going to be quite that long,” Trump said.
… but she made a beautiful, you know, she made a very good speech. No, I wasn’t uncomfortable – I was very happy. I would have normally left the stage and let her speak … I thought it would be disrespectful to her if I left the stage. So, no, I wasn’t uncomfortable at all.”… but she made a beautiful, you know, she made a very good speech. No, I wasn’t uncomfortable – I was very happy. I would have normally left the stage and let her speak … I thought it would be disrespectful to her if I left the stage. So, no, I wasn’t uncomfortable at all.”
He doesn’t look uncomfortable in this mashup:He doesn’t look uncomfortable in this mashup:
Trump spent part of Wednesday hammering Texas senator Ted Cruz, seemingly his closest rival in Iowa, which votes in just 11 days’ time.Trump spent part of Wednesday hammering Texas senator Ted Cruz, seemingly his closest rival in Iowa, which votes in just 11 days’ time.
This morning it appears the Republican establishment has picked a horse in the Trump-Cruz race – and it is Trump. Bob Dole, the former senator and presidential nominee, told the New York Times Republicans would suffer “cataclysmic” losses with Cruz and that Trump would be better.This morning it appears the Republican establishment has picked a horse in the Trump-Cruz race – and it is Trump. Bob Dole, the former senator and presidential nominee, told the New York Times Republicans would suffer “cataclysmic” losses with Cruz and that Trump would be better.
Trent Lott, the former Senate majority leader, told the Atlantic he’d take Trump over Cruz if he had to choose. Trump himself pointed out that “Everybody dislikes [Cruz]. I mean, he’s a nasty guy that everybody dislikes.”Trent Lott, the former Senate majority leader, told the Atlantic he’d take Trump over Cruz if he had to choose. Trump himself pointed out that “Everybody dislikes [Cruz]. I mean, he’s a nasty guy that everybody dislikes.”
Cruz hit back, saying there actually is a new alignment between Trump and the establishment – difficult to argue, except in the case of a Trump-Cruz race – and trying to use it against Trump.Cruz hit back, saying there actually is a new alignment between Trump and the establishment – difficult to argue, except in the case of a Trump-Cruz race – and trying to use it against Trump.
“Right now the Washington establishment is abandoning Marco Rubio, they made an assessment that Marco can’t win this race, and the Washington establishment is rushing over to support Donald Trump,” Cruz told Politico.“Right now the Washington establishment is abandoning Marco Rubio, they made an assessment that Marco can’t win this race, and the Washington establishment is rushing over to support Donald Trump,” Cruz told Politico.
We’re seeing that happen every day and Mr Trump is welcoming the support of the Washington establishment.We’re seeing that happen every day and Mr Trump is welcoming the support of the Washington establishment.
In other news, Ben Carson resumes campaign activities today after the death on Tuesday of a volunteer, in a van crash.In other news, Ben Carson resumes campaign activities today after the death on Tuesday of a volunteer, in a van crash.
At the state level, last night emails released to the public indicated that Michigan governor Rick Snyder was informed of water quality issues in the city of Flint as early as February 2015 but his administration struck a dismissive tone, saying the problems would eventually “fade in the rearview”.At the state level, last night emails released to the public indicated that Michigan governor Rick Snyder was informed of water quality issues in the city of Flint as early as February 2015 but his administration struck a dismissive tone, saying the problems would eventually “fade in the rearview”.
Related: Flint water crisis: emails reveal governor Snyder informed of problems a year agoRelated: Flint water crisis: emails reveal governor Snyder informed of problems a year ago
And that blizzard bearing down on Washington DC and perhaps NYC – it’s still coming...And that blizzard bearing down on Washington DC and perhaps NYC – it’s still coming...
That moment when topical news and commentary intersect pic.twitter.com/YPjJwqrbRKThat moment when topical news and commentary intersect pic.twitter.com/YPjJwqrbRK