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Here’s what to expect in the New Hampshire Republican primary Here’s what to expect in the New Hampshire Republican primary
(35 minutes later)
BOW, N.H. — The Republican presidential campaign’s focus on Iowa is over, so the spotlight on ethanol and evangelicals is out.BOW, N.H. — The Republican presidential campaign’s focus on Iowa is over, so the spotlight on ethanol and evangelicals is out.
Now begins an eight-day sprint in New Hampshire that in many ways will be entirely different because this state’s voters reflect a very different side of the GOP. They’re socially moderate and fiscally frugal, and use a primary voting system that allows greater participation by independent-minded voters who revel in upsetting the conventional wisdom.Now begins an eight-day sprint in New Hampshire that in many ways will be entirely different because this state’s voters reflect a very different side of the GOP. They’re socially moderate and fiscally frugal, and use a primary voting system that allows greater participation by independent-minded voters who revel in upsetting the conventional wisdom.
That’s why Ohio Gov. John Kasich is spending so much time here. He didn’t win over Iowa’s social conservatives and prefers to talk more about balancing budgets and finding ways to work with Democrats than going on about social issues.That’s why Ohio Gov. John Kasich is spending so much time here. He didn’t win over Iowa’s social conservatives and prefers to talk more about balancing budgets and finding ways to work with Democrats than going on about social issues.
“I’ll tell you why I came here,” he told an audience at a town hall meeting in the Bow Elementary School. He gestured to the roughly 200 voters. “Because of this.”“I’ll tell you why I came here,” he told an audience at a town hall meeting in the Bow Elementary School. He gestured to the roughly 200 voters. “Because of this.”
“You come here, and you look and you poke, once in a while you smell and you try to decide, is this our leader?” he continued. “Whether I win or not, I believe in this process. I believe that folks in New Hampshire are the best screeners that America can have to recommend to the country.”“You come here, and you look and you poke, once in a while you smell and you try to decide, is this our leader?” he continued. “Whether I win or not, I believe in this process. I believe that folks in New Hampshire are the best screeners that America can have to recommend to the country.”
[Live updates: 2016 Iowa election results] [2016 Iowa election results]
Naturally, the line earned big applause.Naturally, the line earned big applause.
Although Iowa held the first caucus, New Hampshire has refused to give up its moniker of “First in the Nation,” referring not just to the first primary but a fierce belief that it still sets the country’s political course in a way that Iowa often does not. Although Iowa held the first caucus, New Hampshire has refused to give up its moniker of “First in the Nation,” referring not just to the first primary but also to a fierce belief that it still sets the country’s political course in a way that Iowa often does not.
“New Hampshire has gone differently than Iowa in six of the last nine elections on the Republican side, so the idea that one follows the other’s lead just doesn’t bear out,” said Wayne Lesperance, professor of political science at New England College in Henniker, N.H. “New Hampshire has gone differently than Iowa in six of the last nine elections on the Republican side, so the idea that one follows the other’s lead just doesn’t bear out,” said Wayne Lesperance, a professor of political science at New England College in Henniker, N.H.
To the contrary, he said, “New Hampshire voters take pride in being independent. The only thing we have in common with Iowa is we are first in the nation.” On the contrary, he said, “New Hampshire voters take pride in being independent. The only thing we have in common with Iowa is we are first in the nation.”
And yet, Iowa and New Hampshire share more in common this cycle, thanks to Donald Trump. He has held a double-digit lead over his GOP opponents here for more than 30 weeks and dominates the headlines — just as he did in Iowa.And yet, Iowa and New Hampshire share more in common this cycle, thanks to Donald Trump. He has held a double-digit lead over his GOP opponents here for more than 30 weeks and dominates the headlines — just as he did in Iowa.
For now, Trump is favored by 38 percent of GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, according to a Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University poll released Sunday. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is a distant second at 13 percent, followed by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 10 percent; Kasich, 8 percent; and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 5 percent. [Live updates from Iowa]
A CNN/WMUR-TV poll released Sunday showed similar results: Trump with 30 percent, followed by Cruz, 12 percent; Rubio, 11 percent; Kasich, 9 percent; Christie, 8 percent; and Bush with 6 percent. For now, Trump is favored by 38 percent of GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, according to a Boston Herald-Franklin Pierce University poll released Sunday. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas is a distant second at 13 percent, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and former Florida governor Jeb Bush, 10 percent; Kasich, 8 percent; and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 5 percent.
“The NH GOP primary polling has been stable for months now,” Dante Scala, associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, said in an email. Surveys have shown “only minor shifts” among the “establishment” candidates — Rubio, Bush, Kasich and Christie — making it difficult to track any widespread switch in support from one to the other, he said. A CNN-WMUR-TV poll released Sunday showed similar results: Trump with 30 percent, followed by Cruz, 12 percent; Rubio, 11 percent; Kasich, 9 percent; Christie, 8 percent; and Bush with 6 percent.
New Hampshire Republican polling “has been stable for months now,” Dante Scala, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, said by email. Surveys have shown “only minor shifts” among the “establishment” candidates — Rubio, Bush, Kasich and Christie — making it difficult to track any widespread switch in support from one to the other, he said.
Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, agreed, saying that if any of the four establishment candidates can find a way to jump ahead in New Hampshire, this will shake up the entire race.Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, agreed, saying that if any of the four establishment candidates can find a way to jump ahead in New Hampshire, this will shake up the entire race.
That’s why Bush, Christie, Kasich and Rubio see New Hampshire as crucial — it’s perhaps their last opportunity to emerge as the anti-Trump.That’s why Bush, Christie, Kasich and Rubio see New Hampshire as crucial — it’s perhaps their last opportunity to emerge as the anti-Trump.
[Trump brags his way across Iowa on caucus day]
Kasich was scheduled to hold his 89th town hall meeting on Monday night. Christie has held 114 public events in New Hampshire since launching his campaign in June. Bush, who has most relentlessly attacked Trump as unqualified to be president, has hosted 80 public events in the state as of Monday night. Rubio has been in New Hampshire less frequently.Kasich was scheduled to hold his 89th town hall meeting on Monday night. Christie has held 114 public events in New Hampshire since launching his campaign in June. Bush, who has most relentlessly attacked Trump as unqualified to be president, has hosted 80 public events in the state as of Monday night. Rubio has been in New Hampshire less frequently.
Supporters of the New Hampshire primary process like to remind skeptics that they have more often picked the Republican nominee in recent years than Iowa. In 2008 and 2012, Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum won the Iowa caucuses thanks to strong support from evangelicals. Neither went on to win New Hampshire or the nomination. Instead, Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain won here in 2008 and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney won in 2012 — both went on to secure the party’s nomination. Supporters of the New Hampshire primary process like to remind skeptics that they have more often picked the Republican nominee in recent years than Iowa. In 2008 and 2012, Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania won the Iowa caucuses thanks to strong support from evangelicals. Neither went on to win New Hampshire or the nomination. Instead, Sen. John McCain of Arizona won here in 2008 and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney won in 2012 — and both went on to secure the party’s nomination.
Aside from social issues and state-specific interests, one of the biggest differences is that it is far easier to vote in New Hampshire. Iowa’s caucus system requires hours of time at local meetings and commitments to a political party. The caucuses don’t directly determine which candidates gets delegates. It is an expression of preference that must be ratified months later at state party meetings.Aside from social issues and state-specific interests, one of the biggest differences is that it is far easier to vote in New Hampshire. Iowa’s caucus system requires hours of time at local meetings and commitments to a political party. The caucuses don’t directly determine which candidates gets delegates. It is an expression of preference that must be ratified months later at state party meetings.
In New Hampshire, a citizen of the state can walk up to the polls at the last minute and cast a ballot, resulting in a higher overall participation rate. That has led many New Hampshirites to look down on the Iowa caucuses, a view most famously summed by Republican former governor John H. Sununu, who once said that Iowa picks corn and New Hampshire picks presidents. Many people here in both parties agree. That has led many New Hampshirites to look down on the Iowa caucuses, a view most famously summed by Republican former governor John H. Sununu, who once said that Iowa picks corn and New Hampshire picks presidents. Many people here in both parties agree.
[Large crowds turn up in Iowa]
“I’ve yet to ever run into a New Hampshire voter who says, ‘Nah, I was going to vote for you, but your guy finished fourth instead of third in Iowa.’ They don’t exist up here,” said John Weaver, a top consultant to Kasich’s presidential campaign who advised McCain during previous primaries.“If you work hard, as the governor has done, and you put deep roots in the state, as we have done, you have to feel pretty good about withstanding whatever happens.”“I’ve yet to ever run into a New Hampshire voter who says, ‘Nah, I was going to vote for you, but your guy finished fourth instead of third in Iowa.’ They don’t exist up here,” said John Weaver, a top consultant to Kasich’s presidential campaign who advised McCain during previous primaries.“If you work hard, as the governor has done, and you put deep roots in the state, as we have done, you have to feel pretty good about withstanding whatever happens.”
David Price of Weare, N.H., attended Kasich’s event Sunday at the school and said he would take note of how Iowa voted. “But as a true New Hampshirite, I look at it independently,” he said.David Price of Weare, N.H., attended Kasich’s event Sunday at the school and said he would take note of how Iowa voted. “But as a true New Hampshirite, I look at it independently,” he said.
Price called Kasich “a very personable individual,” but added that right now, “I’m leaning to . . . Jeb Bush.” Price called Kasich “a very personable individual” but added that right now “I’m leaning to . . . Jeb Bush.”
Arthur Moore, a retired physician from Bow, said he planned to learn more about Kasich but is also considering Bush and Rubio. Whomever Moore chooses, he said that “they’ve got to get rid of Trump — he’s a loose cannon, he’s a narcissist.”Arthur Moore, a retired physician from Bow, said he planned to learn more about Kasich but is also considering Bush and Rubio. Whomever Moore chooses, he said that “they’ve got to get rid of Trump — he’s a loose cannon, he’s a narcissist.”