This article is from the source 'washpo' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/heres-what-to-expect-in-the-new-hampshire-republican-primary/2016/02/01/cbad664c-c8f6-11e5-88ff-e2d1b4289c2f_story.html

The article has changed 9 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 5 Version 6
Here’s what to expect in the New Hampshire Republican primary Candidates arrive in New Hampshire, pitching a different set of voters
(about 9 hours later)
CONCORD, N.H. — Sen. Ted Cruz defeated Donald Trump in Iowa on Monday night, but he faces a strikingly different set of challenges in trying to replicate that victory in New Hampshire’s primary next week. He has a lesser organization here, has spent less time here, and can’t count on such a large evangelical electorate. CONCORD, N.H. —Presidential candidates arrived fresh from Iowa on Tuesday, joining others in New Hampshire in a seven-day sprint to the nation’s first primary.
History provides a clear warning. In 2008 and 2012, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum won the Iowa Republican caucuses with heavy support from evangelicals. Both then arrived here lacking a strong organization, lost this state and failed to become the GOP nominees. Facing a different set of voters and an expanded playing field on the GOP side, 2016 hopefuls are now wooing a more moderate, less religious electorate.
With the Republican Party’s focus on Iowa now complete, the spotlight on ethanol and evangelicals is out. Now begins an eight-day sprint that in many ways will be entirely different because New Hampshire’s voters reflect a very different side of the GOP. They’re socially moderate and fiscally frugal, and use a primary voting system that allows greater participation by independent-minded voters who revel in upsetting the conventional wisdom. For Democrats, with former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley bowing out , the race between Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has intensified after a virtual dead heat finish in Iowa.
The Clinton campaign declared victory with all but one Iowa precinct counted. The state’s Democratic Party did not declare a winner, but it appeared that Clinton had a lock regardless of the outcome in the remaining Des Moines precinct.
“God loves the great state of Iowa,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) declared after the votes were tallied in Monday night’s caucus, and he had defeated New York businessman Donald Trump. “Tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives, across Iowa and all across this great nation.”
But Cruz — who came here Tuesday morning along with several of his rivals — faces a series of new challenges in trying to replicate that victory in New Hampshire’s primary next week, with a less-robust organization in a state where has spent less time and cannot count on such a large evangelical electorate.
History provides a clear warning. In 2008 and 2012, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and former senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania won the Iowa Republican caucuses with heavy support from evangelicals. Both then arrived in New Hampshire lacking a strong organization, lost the state and failed to become the GOP nominees.
[How data analytics and evangelical fervor pushed Cruz to victory in Iowa]
With the Republican Party’s focus on Iowa now complete, the spotlight on ethanol and evangelicals is out.
Now begins a week-long push that in many ways will be entirely different because New Hampshire’s voters reflect a very different side of the GOP. They’re socially moderate and fiscally frugal, and use a primary voting system that allows greater participation by independent-minded voters who revel in upsetting the conventional wisdom.
It’s why a handful of GOP “establishment” candidates who did poorly in Iowa think they’ll perform better here.It’s why a handful of GOP “establishment” candidates who did poorly in Iowa think they’ll perform better here.
“New Hampshire voters reset elections. That’s what you all do. . . . The reset starts here tonight,” former Florida governor Jeb Bush defiantly told about 300 supporters at Manchester’s Alpine Club on Monday night.“New Hampshire voters reset elections. That’s what you all do. . . . The reset starts here tonight,” former Florida governor Jeb Bush defiantly told about 300 supporters at Manchester’s Alpine Club on Monday night.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie told a crowd in Hopkinton Monday night that Iowa “has passed the ball to you.” The field would soon be thinned. “You all,” he said, “are going to decide it.” New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie told a crowd in Hopkinton on Monday night that Iowa “has passed the ball to you.” The field would soon be thinned. “You all,” he said, “are going to decide it.”
Ohio Gov. John Kasich told an audience of about 200 at Bow Elementary School on Sunday that “you come here, and you look and you poke, once in a while you smell and you try to decide, is this our leader? Whether I win or not, I believe in this process. I believe that folks in New Hampshire are the best screeners that America can have to recommend to the country.”Ohio Gov. John Kasich told an audience of about 200 at Bow Elementary School on Sunday that “you come here, and you look and you poke, once in a while you smell and you try to decide, is this our leader? Whether I win or not, I believe in this process. I believe that folks in New Hampshire are the best screeners that America can have to recommend to the country.”
[2016 Iowa election results] [Ted Cruz bests Trump in Iowa, with Rubio as a close third ]
Wayne Lesperance, a professor of political science at New England College in Henniker, N.H., said that “New Hampshire has gone differently than Iowa in six of the last nine elections on the Republican side, so the idea that one follows the other’s lead just doesn’t bear out.”Wayne Lesperance, a professor of political science at New England College in Henniker, N.H., said that “New Hampshire has gone differently than Iowa in six of the last nine elections on the Republican side, so the idea that one follows the other’s lead just doesn’t bear out.”
And yet, Iowa and New Hampshire share more in common this cycle, thanks to Donald Trump. He has held a double-digit lead over his GOP opponents here for more than 30 weeks and dominates the headlines — just as he did in Iowa before losing to Cruz there on Monday. And yet, Iowa and New Hampshire share more in common this cycle, thanks to Trump. He has held a double-digit lead over his GOP opponents here for more than 30 weeks and dominates the headlines — just as he did in Iowa before losing to Cruz there on Monday.
[Live updates from Iowa]
Cruz’s first place finish in Iowa and a stronger-than-expected showing for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, just behind Trump, could immediately scramble the top tier of the race.Cruz’s first place finish in Iowa and a stronger-than-expected showing for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, just behind Trump, could immediately scramble the top tier of the race.
Rubio was already making the rounds in New Hampshire Tuesday morning, doing a series of television hits and preparing to meet voters.
Speaking to ABC’s “Good Morning America” on Tuesday from Manchester’s Airport Diner, Rubio said that Cruz built a formidable operation in Iowa. “But we feel so good about the growth we’ve had and how that’s going to translate in New Hampshire,” he added.
Working the crowd, the Florida senator boasted about the “massive” turnout in Iowa, where 187,000 voters, or 8 percent of the state electorate, came out to caucus for Republicans.
“I got more votes than Santorum did, than Romney did, than Huckabee did,” he said.
As one customer gave Rubio some cigars, he joked that he wanted to keep it under wraps — “I don’t want the kids to see” — but alluded to when he might smoke the stogies. “Maybe we’ll save them for Tuesday night,” he said, as his supporters in the diner cheered.
Rubio also picked up a key endorsement Tuesday: GOP Sen. Tim Scott, an African American from the critical primary state of South Carolina.
“Marco Rubio understands that here in America, it’s not about where you start, it’s about where you are going,” Scott said in a video message. “We have one shot in 2016 to beat Hillary Clinton and that shot is Marco Rubio, and with him as our candidate: we win.”
For now, Trump is favored by 38 percent of GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, according to a Boston Herald-Franklin Pierce University poll released Sunday. Cruz is a distant second at 13 percent, followed by Rubio and Bush, 10 percent; Kasich, 8 percent; and Christie, 5 percent.For now, Trump is favored by 38 percent of GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, according to a Boston Herald-Franklin Pierce University poll released Sunday. Cruz is a distant second at 13 percent, followed by Rubio and Bush, 10 percent; Kasich, 8 percent; and Christie, 5 percent.
A CNN-WMUR-TV poll released Sunday showed similar results: Trump with 30 percent, followed by Cruz, 12 percent; Rubio, 11 percent; Kasich, 9 percent; Christie, 8 percent; and Bush with 6 percent.A CNN-WMUR-TV poll released Sunday showed similar results: Trump with 30 percent, followed by Cruz, 12 percent; Rubio, 11 percent; Kasich, 9 percent; Christie, 8 percent; and Bush with 6 percent.
New Hampshire Republican polling “has been stable for months now,” Dante Scala, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, said by email. Surveys have shown “only minor shifts” among the “establishment” candidates — Rubio, Bush, Kasich and Christie — making it difficult to track any widespread switch in support from one to the other, he said.
Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, agreed, saying that if any of the four establishment candidates can find a way to jump ahead in New Hampshire, this will shake up the entire race.Neil Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College, agreed, saying that if any of the four establishment candidates can find a way to jump ahead in New Hampshire, this will shake up the entire race.
That’s why Bush, Christie, Kasich and Rubio see New Hampshire as their last opportunity to emerge as the anti-Trump.That’s why Bush, Christie, Kasich and Rubio see New Hampshire as their last opportunity to emerge as the anti-Trump.
While Rubio placed a strong third in Iowa, the other establishment candidates trailed far behind. Bush earned 3 percent support, topping Christie and Kasich, who each earned 2 percent.While Rubio placed a strong third in Iowa, the other establishment candidates trailed far behind. Bush earned 3 percent support, topping Christie and Kasich, who each earned 2 percent.
[Trump brags his way across Iowa on caucus day][Trump brags his way across Iowa on caucus day]
In New Hampshire, Kasich held his 89th town hall meeting on Monday night. Christie has held 114 public events in the state since launching his campaign in June. Bush, who has most relentlessly attacked Trump as unqualified to be president, hosted his 80th public event in the state on Monday night. Rubio has been in New Hampshire less frequently, but is certain to earn renewed interest starting Tuesday.In New Hampshire, Kasich held his 89th town hall meeting on Monday night. Christie has held 114 public events in the state since launching his campaign in June. Bush, who has most relentlessly attacked Trump as unqualified to be president, hosted his 80th public event in the state on Monday night. Rubio has been in New Hampshire less frequently, but is certain to earn renewed interest starting Tuesday.
Supporters of the New Hampshire primary process like to remind skeptics that they have more often picked the Republican nominee in recent years than Iowa. In 2008, Sen. John McCain of Arizona won here, and in 2012, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney won the New Hampshire primary. Both won the nomination.Supporters of the New Hampshire primary process like to remind skeptics that they have more often picked the Republican nominee in recent years than Iowa. In 2008, Sen. John McCain of Arizona won here, and in 2012, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney won the New Hampshire primary. Both won the nomination.
Aside from social issues and state-specific interests, one of the biggest differences is that it is far easier to vote in New Hampshire. Iowa’s caucus system requires hours of time at local meetings and commitments to a political party. The caucuses don’t directly determine which candidates gets delegates. It is an expression of preference that must be ratified months later at state party meetings.Aside from social issues and state-specific interests, one of the biggest differences is that it is far easier to vote in New Hampshire. Iowa’s caucus system requires hours of time at local meetings and commitments to a political party. The caucuses don’t directly determine which candidates gets delegates. It is an expression of preference that must be ratified months later at state party meetings.
[Large crowds turn up in Iowa][Large crowds turn up in Iowa]
That has led many New Hampshirites to look down on the Iowa caucuses, a view most famously summed by Republican former governor John H. Sununu, who once said that Iowa picks corn and New Hampshire picks presidents. Many people here in both parties agree.
“I’ve yet to ever run into a New Hampshire voter who says, ‘Nah, I was going to vote for you, but your guy finished fourth instead of third in Iowa.’ They don’t exist up here,” said John Weaver, a top consultant to Kasich’s presidential campaign who advised McCain during previous primaries. “If you work hard, as the governor has done, and you put deep roots in the state, as we have done, you have to feel pretty good about withstanding whatever happens.”
David Price of Weare, N.H., attended Kasich’s event Sunday at the school and said he would take note of how Iowa voted. “But as a true New Hampshirite, I look at it independently,” he said.David Price of Weare, N.H., attended Kasich’s event Sunday at the school and said he would take note of how Iowa voted. “But as a true New Hampshirite, I look at it independently,” he said.
Price called Kasich “a very personable individual” but added that right now “I’m leaning to . . . Jeb Bush.”Price called Kasich “a very personable individual” but added that right now “I’m leaning to . . . Jeb Bush.”
Arthur Moore, a retired physician from Bow, said he planned to learn more about Kasich but is also considering Bush and Rubio. Whomever Moore chooses, he said that “they’ve got to get rid of Trump — he’s a loose cannon, he’s a narcissist.”Arthur Moore, a retired physician from Bow, said he planned to learn more about Kasich but is also considering Bush and Rubio. Whomever Moore chooses, he said that “they’ve got to get rid of Trump — he’s a loose cannon, he’s a narcissist.”
And while a poor performance in Iowa has already prompted Huckabee to drop out, other candidates at the back of the pack are forging ahead.
“We fight on!” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) tweeted after coming in fifth with roughly 5 percent of the vote in Iowa., adding in a separate tweet. “We are not trading our liberty for anything. Not now, not never. Hell no.”
For Democrats, the race is now a head-to-head contest. The Iowa battle was so close--Clinton currently has 22 delegates, compared to Sanders’ 21, and is leading the overall vote 49.9 percent to 49.6 percent.
[How Sanders caught fire and upended Clinton’s coronation lap]
In the early morning hours Tuesday, Clinton’s aides said that they viewed Iowa as “tailor-made” for Sanders, and that despite his advantages with the state’s liberal Democratic base, he was unable to win.
“Sanders has been saying for several weeks that if this caucus was a high turnout affair, then he would win,” said Clinton campaign press secretary Brian Fallon, after arriving in Manchester. “He was wrong.”
Andy McGuire, chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, called the caucus “historically close” and refrained from declaring a winner despite calls of victory from the Clinton campaign. Instead, McGuire said the party would report on the one outstanding precinct “when we have confirmed those results with the chair.”
Edison Media Research estimates 171,109 voters, or 7 percent of the eligible voters statewide, turned out for Iowa’s Democratic caucuses. The turnout represents a decline from 10.7 percent in 2008, but increase than 5.6 percent in 2004.
Sanders can now campaign in a state adjacent to the one which he represents, giving him a home-court advantage and a comfortable lead in the polls. But Clinton can take some comfort in the fact that New Hampshire primary voters are less liberal than those who caucused in Iowa, and this state has demonstrated support for both her and her husband when they have suffered political setbacks in the past.
[On Sanders’ plane to N.H. wine flows in celebration]
Sanders, for his part, was celebrating as he made his way to the back of his chartered jet at nearly 3 a.m. Tuesday. The senator told a crush of reporters jockeying for position in the aisle that his campaign is now “in this for the long haul.”
“We’re going to win states all over the country,” a beaming Sanders said, adding the result from Iowa was “a wonderful start off to the national campaign . . . We’re in this to the convention, and this is a campaign that we can win.”
Abby Phillip, John Wagner and Sean Sullivan in Manchester, N.H., contributed to this report. Anne Gearan contributed from Des Moines, and Scott Clement contributed from Washington.