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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/feb/05/markets-us-jobs-report-non-farm-business-live
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| Version 0 | Version 1 |
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| Markets brace for US jobs report - business live | Markets brace for US jobs report - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 8.21am GMT | |
| 08:21 | |
| UBS analyst Paul Donovan isn’t impressed by the media clamour over Non-Farm Payroll Day. | |
| Peppering his morning research note with sarcastic exclamation marks, he writes: | |
| Employment report Friday!!! A frequently revised statistic about a tiny change in a very large labour market!!! Cue the media frenzy right now. The consensus is for a generally OK report in aggregate. | |
| Sorry, Paul. | |
| 8.16am GMT | |
| 08:16 | |
| There’s a lot of chatter about Brexit in the City this morning. | |
| Bank of England deputy governor, Ben Broadbent, has told the BBC that companies don’t appear to be freezing spending ahead of the EU referendum (which could come in June) | |
| Asked about Brexit risks, he said: | |
| “We have not yet seen, regarding investment intentions, any weakening of those of late,but obviously it’s something we watch pretty closely.” | |
| But a glance at the front page of The Times could encourage companies to rethink their spending plans. A new survey puts the Out campaign in the lead, by 45% to 36% (with 19% of people unsure). | |
| #Brexit campaign has its biggest lead (9pts) after voters reject Cameron deal on EU reforms. @YouGov for @thetimes pic.twitter.com/EenrkKvNjj | |
| But before we cement up the Channel Tunnel, let’s remember that the polling industry has been far from infallible recently (it got the Scottish referendum, and the last general election, wrong). | |
| And these kind of stories are also likely to get Remain supporters out to the polling booth. Which may be why they’re expected to win: | |
| Reminder: Times poll is bollocks online poll, betting is strongly 'remain'. #whatmeworry pic.twitter.com/CQkCnVcjyW | |
| 7.57am GMT | |
| 07:57 | |
| Most Asian stock markets fell today, as traders hunkered down ahead of this afternoon’s non-farm payroll report. | |
| In Japan, the Nikkei fell by another 1.3%, amid nervousness that the yen might continue to strengthen against the US dollar (bad for Japanese exporters and inflation). | |
| The Chinese stock market also fell, losing around 0.6% in a quiet trading session. Many investors have already quit the bourses and headed home to celebrate the Chinese New Year | |
| 7.44am GMT | 7.44am GMT |
| 07:44 | 07:44 |
| German factory orders decline | German factory orders decline |
| The European trading day has started with weak economic data out of Germany. | The European trading day has started with weak economic data out of Germany. |
| German factory orders declined by 0.7% month-on-month in December, according to stats body Destatis. Economists expected a 0.5% drop, following a 1.5% jump in orders in November. | German factory orders declined by 0.7% month-on-month in December, according to stats body Destatis. Economists expected a 0.5% drop, following a 1.5% jump in orders in November. |
| These monthly surveys can be quite volatile, but it suggests Germany’s economy ended 2015 on the back foot. | These monthly surveys can be quite volatile, but it suggests Germany’s economy ended 2015 on the back foot. |
| And it can’t just be blamed on emerging markets. Orders from outside the eurozone actually rose, but that couldn’t make up for falling demand from Germany’s euro neighbours, or within Germany itself. | And it can’t just be blamed on emerging markets. Orders from outside the eurozone actually rose, but that couldn’t make up for falling demand from Germany’s euro neighbours, or within Germany itself. |
| Bloomberg has more details: | Bloomberg has more details: |
| Domestic orders fell 2.5%, the ministry said, while euro-area orders slumped 6.9% and demand from outside the currency bloc rose 5.5 percent. Orders for investment goods declined 0.5, and for consumer goods surged 4.3 percent. | Domestic orders fell 2.5%, the ministry said, while euro-area orders slumped 6.9% and demand from outside the currency bloc rose 5.5 percent. Orders for investment goods declined 0.5, and for consumer goods surged 4.3 percent. |
| “Order activity somewhat recovered in the fourth quarter,” the ministry said in a statement. “Increasing demand from countries outside the euro area indicates a gradual recovery the global economy. However, industry expectations have somewhat clouded, signaling a more modest recovery in industrial activity. | “Order activity somewhat recovered in the fourth quarter,” the ministry said in a statement. “Increasing demand from countries outside the euro area indicates a gradual recovery the global economy. However, industry expectations have somewhat clouded, signaling a more modest recovery in industrial activity. |
| Germany's factory orders fall by more than expected as export slowdown hits confidence https://t.co/rpjQswbSTX pic.twitter.com/83DKGRpVKo | Germany's factory orders fall by more than expected as export slowdown hits confidence https://t.co/rpjQswbSTX pic.twitter.com/83DKGRpVKo |
| 7.24am GMT | 7.24am GMT |
| 07:24 | 07:24 |
| Introduction: It's Non-Farm Payroll Day | Introduction: It's Non-Farm Payroll Day |
| Good morning. | Good morning. |
| Another turbulent week in the markets is nearly over. But there’s just one major hurdle to get over first – the US unemployment report, due at 1.30pm GMT. | Another turbulent week in the markets is nearly over. But there’s just one major hurdle to get over first – the US unemployment report, due at 1.30pm GMT. |
| January’s Non-Farm Payroll is expected to show that around 192,000 new jobs were created in America last month (excluding the volatile agriculture sector). | January’s Non-Farm Payroll is expected to show that around 192,000 new jobs were created in America last month (excluding the volatile agriculture sector). |
| The unemployment rate is projected to stay at 5% -- just half the level in the eurozone. And wage growth could remain elusive, with earnings expected to rise just 2.2% year-on-year. | The unemployment rate is projected to stay at 5% -- just half the level in the eurozone. And wage growth could remain elusive, with earnings expected to rise just 2.2% year-on-year. |
| Economists will be scrutinising the data closely, for signs that the labor market is weakening. Recent economic surveys from the US have been somewhat disappointing, with service sector growth slowing last month. | Economists will be scrutinising the data closely, for signs that the labor market is weakening. Recent economic surveys from the US have been somewhat disappointing, with service sector growth slowing last month. |
| A disappointing payroll report could renew fears over the US economy, and mean the US central bank cannot raise interest rates for several months. Perhaps not even this year? | A disappointing payroll report could renew fears over the US economy, and mean the US central bank cannot raise interest rates for several months. Perhaps not even this year? |
| The US dollar is already on track for its worst week since 2009, and it could slump again if the NFP comes in below forecasts. | The US dollar is already on track for its worst week since 2009, and it could slump again if the NFP comes in below forecasts. |
| Angus Nicholson of IG explains: | Angus Nicholson of IG explains: |
| A big miss on the NFP numbers (150,000 or less) would see a further dive in the US dollar, killing expectations of any further rate hikes by the Fed. | A big miss on the NFP numbers (150,000 or less) would see a further dive in the US dollar, killing expectations of any further rate hikes by the Fed. |
| Europe’s stock markets are expected to open cautiously, with investors sitting on their hands until the report comes out. | Europe’s stock markets are expected to open cautiously, with investors sitting on their hands until the report comes out. |
| Our European opening calls:$FTSE 5896 down 3$DAX 9367 down 26$CAC 4225 down 4$IBEX 8461 down 7$MIB 17599 down 27 | Our European opening calls:$FTSE 5896 down 3$DAX 9367 down 26$CAC 4225 down 4$IBEX 8461 down 7$MIB 17599 down 27 |
| Most European markets called to open broadly flat or minor negative. US Payrolls up at 1.30pm. The calm before the storm? #stocks | Most European markets called to open broadly flat or minor negative. US Payrolls up at 1.30pm. The calm before the storm? #stocks |
| Also coming up today: | Also coming up today: |
| A row is brewing in Brussels with Portugal, whose new left-wing government has angered eurocrats by submitting a budget that doesn’t meet the EU’s fiscal rules. More on that shortly.... | A row is brewing in Brussels with Portugal, whose new left-wing government has angered eurocrats by submitting a budget that doesn’t meet the EU’s fiscal rules. More on that shortly.... |
| And Bank of England governor Ben Broadbent is on a media tour this morning: | And Bank of England governor Ben Broadbent is on a media tour this morning: |
| Ben Broadbent tells BBC radio UK economy doing well, nothing wrong with BoE's guidance, no sign EU referendum hitting business investement | Ben Broadbent tells BBC radio UK economy doing well, nothing wrong with BoE's guidance, no sign EU referendum hitting business investement |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.30am GMT | at 7.30am GMT |