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| Version 4 | Version 5 |
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| Markets brace for US jobs report - business live | Markets brace for US jobs report - business live |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| 11.27am GMT | |
| 11:27 | |
| Yesterday, Greece’s riot police clashed with protesters as Athens was gripped by a huge anti-austerity protest. | |
| Today, officers have been protesting outside prime minister Alexis Tsipras’s mansion, objecting to cuts to their own pensions. | |
| There will be more protests later, as the Kathimerini newspaper flags up: | |
| The brief rally dispersed without any upheaval but police are expected to monitor a larger anti-austerity rally scheduled to take place in central Athens on Friday afternoon when fire service workers are to join police officers in protesting the planned changes to the pension system. | |
| Police protest outside Greek premier's residence ahead of larger rally https://t.co/p84zOhpLTB pic.twitter.com/fj9l22Xqyo | |
| 11.12am GMT | |
| 11:12 | |
| For the second day running, mining stocks are going on a remarkable rally. | |
| Anglo American is leading the charge, up 10%, adding to Thursday’s 19% surge, with commodity player Glencore up over 5%. | |
| It looks like traders are anticipating that miners will benefit if (as seems likely) the US Federal Reserve resists raising interest rates much this year. That, the theory goes, makes the US dollar weaker and means commodity prices rise (you need more dollars to buy the same lump of iron ore). | |
| This is all bad news for the speculators who have ‘shorted’ mining stocks - selling shares they don’t own, and planning to buy them back at a lower price in future. | |
| Once that bet goes wrong, speculators can be caught in a nasty ‘bear squeeze’, scrambling over each other to buy shares to cover their short position. | |
| The FT’s Neil Hume, though, wonders if something else is happening at Anglo.... | |
| I'm starting to think there's move to this move in Anglo American than just a bear squeeze. pic.twitter.com/8DfHywMmeU | |
| 10.54am GMT | |
| 10:54 | |
| ArcelorMittal has become the latest company to count the cost of the commosity crunch | |
| The world’s largest steelmaker is to raise $3bn through a rights issue to strengthen its finances, news that sent its shares sliding by over 7%. | |
| Related: Commodities crisis pushes ArcelorMittal into $8bn annual loss | |
| 10.10am GMT | 10.10am GMT |
| 10:10 | 10:10 |
| After weeks of rocky markets, traders are grateful that there’s really not much going on today. | After weeks of rocky markets, traders are grateful that there’s really not much going on today. |
| That will change when the US jobs report lands at 1.30pm. | That will change when the US jobs report lands at 1.30pm. |
| Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, says we should enjoy the quiet while we can: | Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, says we should enjoy the quiet while we can: |
| “Equity markets are pretty much flat amid a welcome calming of recent volatility as investors adopt their traditional wait-and-see ahead of the US monthly jobs report, even if it should have little bearing on the topic and driver of the week - the Fed’s ability to raise rates in 2016 amid soggy data and protracted financial market gyrations following its December hike. | “Equity markets are pretty much flat amid a welcome calming of recent volatility as investors adopt their traditional wait-and-see ahead of the US monthly jobs report, even if it should have little bearing on the topic and driver of the week - the Fed’s ability to raise rates in 2016 amid soggy data and protracted financial market gyrations following its December hike. |
| 9.30am GMT | 9.30am GMT |
| 09:30 | 09:30 |
| Brussels showdown over Portugal’s anti-austerity budget | Brussels showdown over Portugal’s anti-austerity budget |
| Two and a half months after taking office, Portugal’s left-wing government is heading into a showdown with EU authorities. | Two and a half months after taking office, Portugal’s left-wing government is heading into a showdown with EU authorities. |
| The Commission is holding a special college meeting today, to discuss Lisbon’s failure to submit tax and spending plans that meets EU rules. It could reject Portugal’s new anti-austerity budget - which would be a pretty incendiary development. | The Commission is holding a special college meeting today, to discuss Lisbon’s failure to submit tax and spending plans that meets EU rules. It could reject Portugal’s new anti-austerity budget - which would be a pretty incendiary development. |
| Politico’s Ryan Heath sets the scene: | Politico’s Ryan Heath sets the scene: |
| Portugal yesterday adopted its budget without waiting for Commission approval. Now, if the budget is rejected in Brussels “it would mark the first time a eurozone government has had its spending plan vetoed.” | Portugal yesterday adopted its budget without waiting for Commission approval. Now, if the budget is rejected in Brussels “it would mark the first time a eurozone government has had its spending plan vetoed.” |
| Some suspect that a small country (Portugal) is once again being targeted not only on the merits of its own problems but to make a point to a bigger country (Italy) with similar issues that the EU dare not touch directly. | Some suspect that a small country (Portugal) is once again being targeted not only on the merits of its own problems but to make a point to a bigger country (Italy) with similar issues that the EU dare not touch directly. |
| I can’t see Portugal meekly accepting a rebuke. Its current budget will create deficits above the 3% limit in both 2016 and 2017 -- as the government tries to unravel years of austerity and spur more growth. | I can’t see Portugal meekly accepting a rebuke. Its current budget will create deficits above the 3% limit in both 2016 and 2017 -- as the government tries to unravel years of austerity and spur more growth. |
| 8.42am GMT | 8.42am GMT |
| 08:42 | 08:42 |
| Yougov’s claim that the Brexit campaign have a nine-point lead has been gently rubbished by Andrew Cooper of rival polling group Populus: | Yougov’s claim that the Brexit campaign have a nine-point lead has been gently rubbished by Andrew Cooper of rival polling group Populus: |
| Apparently a moment to remember Twyman's Law: a poll or statistic that is unusual or interesting is almost invariably wrong. | Apparently a moment to remember Twyman's Law: a poll or statistic that is unusual or interesting is almost invariably wrong. |
| 8.39am GMT | 8.39am GMT |
| 08:39 | 08:39 |
| European stock markets have opened cautiously, with little news to stir investors ahead of the US jobs report in just five hours time. | European stock markets have opened cautiously, with little news to stir investors ahead of the US jobs report in just five hours time. |
| The German and French markets have picked up, led by exporters, following a small dip in the value of the euro against the US dollar this morning. | The German and French markets have picked up, led by exporters, following a small dip in the value of the euro against the US dollar this morning. |
| In London, mining shares are dropping after posting big jumps yesterday. Anglo American, which surged by almost 20% on Thursday, are down 4%. | In London, mining shares are dropping after posting big jumps yesterday. Anglo American, which surged by almost 20% on Thursday, are down 4%. |
| But the City is really waiting for the NFP report, because it could shunt the dollar one way or the other. | But the City is really waiting for the NFP report, because it could shunt the dollar one way or the other. |
| Tony Cross of Trustnet explains: | Tony Cross of Trustnet explains: |
| Looking ahead, it’s the US non-farm payrolls that will dominate in the short term as this could readily counter the dollar weakness that we’ve seen creeping in of late. | Looking ahead, it’s the US non-farm payrolls that will dominate in the short term as this could readily counter the dollar weakness that we’ve seen creeping in of late. |
| Critically this has been pushing commodity prices higher and accounted for at least part of the short squeeze that was seen as buoying the miners yesterday, so anything that looks too hot in the data could have repercussions going into the weekend break. | Critically this has been pushing commodity prices higher and accounted for at least part of the short squeeze that was seen as buoying the miners yesterday, so anything that looks too hot in the data could have repercussions going into the weekend break. |
| 8.21am GMT | 8.21am GMT |
| 08:21 | 08:21 |
| UBS analyst Paul Donovan isn’t impressed by the media clamour over Non-Farm Payroll Day. | UBS analyst Paul Donovan isn’t impressed by the media clamour over Non-Farm Payroll Day. |
| Peppering his morning research note with sarcastic exclamation marks, he writes: | Peppering his morning research note with sarcastic exclamation marks, he writes: |
| Employment report Friday!!! A frequently revised statistic about a tiny change in a very large labour market!!! Cue the media frenzy right now. The consensus is for a generally OK report in aggregate. | Employment report Friday!!! A frequently revised statistic about a tiny change in a very large labour market!!! Cue the media frenzy right now. The consensus is for a generally OK report in aggregate. |
| Sorry, Paul. | Sorry, Paul. |
| 8.16am GMT | 8.16am GMT |
| 08:16 | 08:16 |
| There’s a lot of chatter about Brexit in the City this morning. | There’s a lot of chatter about Brexit in the City this morning. |
| Bank of England deputy governor, Ben Broadbent, has told the BBC that companies don’t appear to be freezing spending ahead of the EU referendum (which could come in June) | Bank of England deputy governor, Ben Broadbent, has told the BBC that companies don’t appear to be freezing spending ahead of the EU referendum (which could come in June) |
| Asked about Brexit risks, he said: | Asked about Brexit risks, he said: |
| “We have not yet seen, regarding investment intentions, any weakening of those of late,but obviously it’s something we watch pretty closely.” | “We have not yet seen, regarding investment intentions, any weakening of those of late,but obviously it’s something we watch pretty closely.” |
| But a glance at the front page of The Times could encourage companies to rethink their spending plans. A new survey puts the Out campaign in the lead, by 45% to 36% (with 19% of people unsure). | But a glance at the front page of The Times could encourage companies to rethink their spending plans. A new survey puts the Out campaign in the lead, by 45% to 36% (with 19% of people unsure). |
| #Brexit campaign has its biggest lead (9pts) after voters reject Cameron deal on EU reforms. @YouGov for @thetimes pic.twitter.com/EenrkKvNjj | #Brexit campaign has its biggest lead (9pts) after voters reject Cameron deal on EU reforms. @YouGov for @thetimes pic.twitter.com/EenrkKvNjj |
| But before we cement up the Channel Tunnel, let’s remember that the polling industry has been far from infallible recently (it got the Scottish referendum, and the last general election, wrong). | But before we cement up the Channel Tunnel, let’s remember that the polling industry has been far from infallible recently (it got the Scottish referendum, and the last general election, wrong). |
| And these kind of stories are also likely to get Remain supporters out to the polling booth. Which may be why they’re expected to win: | And these kind of stories are also likely to get Remain supporters out to the polling booth. Which may be why they’re expected to win: |
| Reminder: Times poll is bollocks online poll, betting is strongly 'remain'. #whatmeworry pic.twitter.com/CQkCnVcjyW | Reminder: Times poll is bollocks online poll, betting is strongly 'remain'. #whatmeworry pic.twitter.com/CQkCnVcjyW |
| 7.57am GMT | 7.57am GMT |
| 07:57 | 07:57 |
| Most Asian stock markets fell today, as traders hunkered down ahead of this afternoon’s non-farm payroll report. | Most Asian stock markets fell today, as traders hunkered down ahead of this afternoon’s non-farm payroll report. |
| In Japan, the Nikkei fell by another 1.3%, amid nervousness that the yen might continue to strengthen against the US dollar (bad for Japanese exporters and inflation). | In Japan, the Nikkei fell by another 1.3%, amid nervousness that the yen might continue to strengthen against the US dollar (bad for Japanese exporters and inflation). |
| The Chinese stock market also fell, losing around 0.6% in a quiet trading session. Many investors have already quit the bourses and headed home to celebrate the Chinese New Year | The Chinese stock market also fell, losing around 0.6% in a quiet trading session. Many investors have already quit the bourses and headed home to celebrate the Chinese New Year |
| 7.44am GMT | 7.44am GMT |
| 07:44 | 07:44 |
| German factory orders decline | German factory orders decline |
| The European trading day has started with weak economic data out of Germany. | The European trading day has started with weak economic data out of Germany. |
| German factory orders declined by 0.7% month-on-month in December, according to stats body Destatis. Economists expected a 0.5% drop, following a 1.5% jump in orders in November. | German factory orders declined by 0.7% month-on-month in December, according to stats body Destatis. Economists expected a 0.5% drop, following a 1.5% jump in orders in November. |
| These monthly surveys can be quite volatile, but it suggests Germany’s economy ended 2015 on the back foot. | These monthly surveys can be quite volatile, but it suggests Germany’s economy ended 2015 on the back foot. |
| And it can’t just be blamed on emerging markets. Orders from outside the eurozone actually rose, but that couldn’t make up for falling demand from Germany’s euro neighbours, or within Germany itself. | And it can’t just be blamed on emerging markets. Orders from outside the eurozone actually rose, but that couldn’t make up for falling demand from Germany’s euro neighbours, or within Germany itself. |
| Bloomberg has more details: | Bloomberg has more details: |
| Domestic orders fell 2.5%, the ministry said, while euro-area orders slumped 6.9% and demand from outside the currency bloc rose 5.5 percent. Orders for investment goods declined 0.5, and for consumer goods surged 4.3 percent. | Domestic orders fell 2.5%, the ministry said, while euro-area orders slumped 6.9% and demand from outside the currency bloc rose 5.5 percent. Orders for investment goods declined 0.5, and for consumer goods surged 4.3 percent. |
| “Order activity somewhat recovered in the fourth quarter,” the ministry said in a statement. “Increasing demand from countries outside the euro area indicates a gradual recovery the global economy. However, industry expectations have somewhat clouded, signaling a more modest recovery in industrial activity. | “Order activity somewhat recovered in the fourth quarter,” the ministry said in a statement. “Increasing demand from countries outside the euro area indicates a gradual recovery the global economy. However, industry expectations have somewhat clouded, signaling a more modest recovery in industrial activity. |
| Germany's factory orders fall by more than expected as export slowdown hits confidence https://t.co/rpjQswbSTX pic.twitter.com/83DKGRpVKo | Germany's factory orders fall by more than expected as export slowdown hits confidence https://t.co/rpjQswbSTX pic.twitter.com/83DKGRpVKo |
| 7.24am GMT | 7.24am GMT |
| 07:24 | 07:24 |
| Introduction: It's Non-Farm Payroll Day | Introduction: It's Non-Farm Payroll Day |
| Good morning. | Good morning. |
| Another turbulent week in the markets is nearly over. But there’s just one major hurdle to get over first – the US unemployment report, due at 1.30pm GMT. | Another turbulent week in the markets is nearly over. But there’s just one major hurdle to get over first – the US unemployment report, due at 1.30pm GMT. |
| January’s Non-Farm Payroll is expected to show that around 192,000 new jobs were created in America last month (excluding the volatile agriculture sector). | January’s Non-Farm Payroll is expected to show that around 192,000 new jobs were created in America last month (excluding the volatile agriculture sector). |
| The unemployment rate is projected to stay at 5% -- just half the level in the eurozone. And wage growth could remain elusive, with earnings expected to rise just 2.2% year-on-year. | The unemployment rate is projected to stay at 5% -- just half the level in the eurozone. And wage growth could remain elusive, with earnings expected to rise just 2.2% year-on-year. |
| Economists will be scrutinising the data closely, for signs that the labor market is weakening. Recent economic surveys from the US have been somewhat disappointing, with service sector growth slowing last month. | Economists will be scrutinising the data closely, for signs that the labor market is weakening. Recent economic surveys from the US have been somewhat disappointing, with service sector growth slowing last month. |
| A disappointing payroll report could renew fears over the US economy, and mean the US central bank cannot raise interest rates for several months. Perhaps not even this year? | A disappointing payroll report could renew fears over the US economy, and mean the US central bank cannot raise interest rates for several months. Perhaps not even this year? |
| The US dollar is already on track for its worst week since 2009, and it could slump again if the NFP comes in below forecasts. | The US dollar is already on track for its worst week since 2009, and it could slump again if the NFP comes in below forecasts. |
| Angus Nicholson of IG explains: | Angus Nicholson of IG explains: |
| A big miss on the NFP numbers (150,000 or less) would see a further dive in the US dollar, killing expectations of any further rate hikes by the Fed. | A big miss on the NFP numbers (150,000 or less) would see a further dive in the US dollar, killing expectations of any further rate hikes by the Fed. |
| Europe’s stock markets are expected to open cautiously, with investors sitting on their hands until the report comes out. | Europe’s stock markets are expected to open cautiously, with investors sitting on their hands until the report comes out. |
| Our European opening calls:$FTSE 5896 down 3$DAX 9367 down 26$CAC 4225 down 4$IBEX 8461 down 7$MIB 17599 down 27 | Our European opening calls:$FTSE 5896 down 3$DAX 9367 down 26$CAC 4225 down 4$IBEX 8461 down 7$MIB 17599 down 27 |
| Most European markets called to open broadly flat or minor negative. US Payrolls up at 1.30pm. The calm before the storm? #stocks | Most European markets called to open broadly flat or minor negative. US Payrolls up at 1.30pm. The calm before the storm? #stocks |
| Also coming up today: | Also coming up today: |
| A row is brewing in Brussels with Portugal, whose new left-wing government has angered eurocrats by submitting a budget that doesn’t meet the EU’s fiscal rules. More on that shortly.... | A row is brewing in Brussels with Portugal, whose new left-wing government has angered eurocrats by submitting a budget that doesn’t meet the EU’s fiscal rules. More on that shortly.... |
| And Bank of England governor Ben Broadbent is on a media tour this morning: | And Bank of England governor Ben Broadbent is on a media tour this morning: |
| Ben Broadbent tells BBC radio UK economy doing well, nothing wrong with BoE's guidance, no sign EU referendum hitting business investement | Ben Broadbent tells BBC radio UK economy doing well, nothing wrong with BoE's guidance, no sign EU referendum hitting business investement |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.30am GMT | at 7.30am GMT |