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Pound hits seven-year low after Boris Johnson's Brexit decision - business live Pound hits seven-year low after Boris Johnson's Brexit decision - business live
(35 minutes later)
2.12pm GMT
14:12
Top supermarkets refuse to sign FTSE firms' anti-Brexit letter
The UK government’s attempts to drum up support from Britain’s top bosses has hit a snag.
Three of the country’s largest supermarket chains, Sainsbury’s, Morrisons and Tesco, are declining to sign a letter backing the Remain campaign.
Here’s the story:
Top supermarkets refuse to sign FTSE firms' anti-Brexit letter https://t.co/7KbcgYCIfU
2.07pm GMT
14:07
City firm IG has just launched a new referendum barometer, showing how investors expect June’s vote to pan out.
And it shows that the In campaign are expected to breeze home, although the odds have narrowed.
According to IG:
The data currently shows IG clients are still overwhelmingly predicting Britain is likely to remain in the EU at 67%. The likelihood of the UK leaving the EU has, however, risen 2% to 33%.
Updated
at 2.08pm GMT
1.53pm GMT1.53pm GMT
13:5313:53
The pound is also losing more ground against the euro.The pound is also losing more ground against the euro.
It has lost 1.25 eurocents so far today,or around 1%, to trade at €1.2774. That’s only its lowest point since last week, though.It has lost 1.25 eurocents so far today,or around 1%, to trade at €1.2774. That’s only its lowest point since last week, though.
1.47pm GMT1.47pm GMT
13:4713:47
German’s Deutsche Bank isn’t happy with Boris today.German’s Deutsche Bank isn’t happy with Boris today.
Their chief investment strategist, Dr Ulrich Stephan, has tweeted that Brexit would be bad for Britain.Their chief investment strategist, Dr Ulrich Stephan, has tweeted that Brexit would be bad for Britain.
#Brexit: London Mayor #BorisJohnson sides with the exit campaign. Financial centre and economy would be the losers. #DrStephan#Brexit: London Mayor #BorisJohnson sides with the exit campaign. Financial centre and economy would be the losers. #DrStephan
Deutsche Bank employs around 8,000 people in London, and another 1,500 in Birmingham.Deutsche Bank employs around 8,000 people in London, and another 1,500 in Birmingham.
12.48pm GMT12.48pm GMT
12:4812:48
Pound hits lowest level since 2009Pound hits lowest level since 2009
Breaking News: The pound has just hits its lowest point against the US dollar in almost seven years.Breaking News: The pound has just hits its lowest point against the US dollar in almost seven years.
Sterling has extended its losses, and just traded below $1.406 against the US dollar.Sterling has extended its losses, and just traded below $1.406 against the US dollar.
That’s the lowest level since March 2009.That’s the lowest level since March 2009.
The pound has now lost over three cents today, tumbling by over 2.3%, as Boris Johnson’s decision to back the Out campaign continues to cause shockwaves through the international currency markets.The pound has now lost over three cents today, tumbling by over 2.3%, as Boris Johnson’s decision to back the Out campaign continues to cause shockwaves through the international currency markets.
As this chart shows, the pound is its weakest since David Cameron came to power in May 2010.As this chart shows, the pound is its weakest since David Cameron came to power in May 2010.
Today’s selloff is still the worst since the 2010 general election (which delivered a hung parliament).Today’s selloff is still the worst since the 2010 general election (which delivered a hung parliament).
UK pound now -2% today, on course for its biggest loss since 2010 general election. pic.twitter.com/3h7rmlkETKUK pound now -2% today, on course for its biggest loss since 2010 general election. pic.twitter.com/3h7rmlkETK
Are we allowed to say Sterling Crisis now?! https://t.co/zdkjHlXTNCAre we allowed to say Sterling Crisis now?! https://t.co/zdkjHlXTNC
Today the £ is having its 35th worst day against the dollar since the currency floated in 1971.Today the £ is having its 35th worst day against the dollar since the currency floated in 1971.
UpdatedUpdated
at 12.52pm GMTat 12.52pm GMT
12.38pm GMT12.38pm GMT
12:3812:38
Bill O’Neill, head of the UK Investment Office at UBS Wealth Management, has predicted that the Leave campaign will soon run out of steam, despite the Boris bounce.Bill O’Neill, head of the UK Investment Office at UBS Wealth Management, has predicted that the Leave campaign will soon run out of steam, despite the Boris bounce.
“We expect UK markets to be volatile over coming days as the campaigns step up a gear and investors adjust to the prospect of a referendum four months from now, but our base case remains that the UK population will decide to remain in the EU.“We expect UK markets to be volatile over coming days as the campaigns step up a gear and investors adjust to the prospect of a referendum four months from now, but our base case remains that the UK population will decide to remain in the EU.
Our Brexit probability remains at 30% as we monitor the public response to the agreement with other EU members.”Our Brexit probability remains at 30% as we monitor the public response to the agreement with other EU members.”
12.24pm GMT12.24pm GMT
12:2412:24
Jill TreanorJill Treanor
Douglas Flint, chairman of HSBC, has warned that there will be a “heightened risk of uncertainty” if Britain votes to leave the EU.Douglas Flint, chairman of HSBC, has warned that there will be a “heightened risk of uncertainty” if Britain votes to leave the EU.
Flint said:Flint said:
“Every business in the UK would be reviewing its supply chain, legal agreements and its licences”.“Every business in the UK would be reviewing its supply chain, legal agreements and its licences”.
He said the UK had a disproportionately large number of companies headquartered here and “that period of uncertainty would be very damaging”.He said the UK had a disproportionately large number of companies headquartered here and “that period of uncertainty would be very damaging”.
The bank has already said that the referendum or any vote to leave would not make it revisit its decision to remain headquartered in London, where it has been based since 1992.The bank has already said that the referendum or any vote to leave would not make it revisit its decision to remain headquartered in London, where it has been based since 1992.
Chief executive Stuart Gulliver said that the broad impact on the UK would come from the fact that the EU is the country’s largest trading partner. But Gulliver said he did not expect London’s predominance as a foreign exchange trading market to be damaged.Chief executive Stuart Gulliver said that the broad impact on the UK would come from the fact that the EU is the country’s largest trading partner. But Gulliver said he did not expect London’s predominance as a foreign exchange trading market to be damaged.
12.22pm GMT12.22pm GMT
12:2212:22
Citi says Brexit is more likelyCiti says Brexit is more likely
Investment bank Citi has just hiked its prediction for Brexit to between 30% and 40%.Investment bank Citi has just hiked its prediction for Brexit to between 30% and 40%.
They took the move after Boris Johnson and Michael Gove (another senior Conservative) both backed the Out campaign over the weekend.They took the move after Boris Johnson and Michael Gove (another senior Conservative) both backed the Out campaign over the weekend.
That’s up from 20-30%, suggesting a greater chance that Britain leaves the EU....That’s up from 20-30%, suggesting a greater chance that Britain leaves the EU....
....or perhaps just greater uncertainty over the whole thing.....or perhaps just greater uncertainty over the whole thing.
Bank ups Brexit probability from 'Not Sure' to 'Mmm Dunno But A Bit More Than Not Sure'. Next stop: 'Coin Flip'Bank ups Brexit probability from 'Not Sure' to 'Mmm Dunno But A Bit More Than Not Sure'. Next stop: 'Coin Flip'
12.15pm GMT12.15pm GMT
12:1512:15
The pound has now fallen to its lowest level in 22 months, when measured against a basket of other currencies (Reuters reports).The pound has now fallen to its lowest level in 22 months, when measured against a basket of other currencies (Reuters reports).
UpdatedUpdated
at 12.17pm GMTat 12.17pm GMT
11.58am GMT11.58am GMT
11:5811:58
World First’s Jeremy Cook wins a small prize (a pound, perhaps?) for spotting that sterling isn’t the worst-performing currency today.World First’s Jeremy Cook wins a small prize (a pound, perhaps?) for spotting that sterling isn’t the worst-performing currency today.
It’s pretty close, though - only Liberia, the Seychelles and the small African island of Sao Tome & Principe are having a bleaker day than Britain in the FX market.It’s pretty close, though - only Liberia, the Seychelles and the small African island of Sao Tome & Principe are having a bleaker day than Britain in the FX market.
Only the Liberian dollar, the Seychelle rupee and the Sao Tome & Principe dobra trading poorer than GBP today. pic.twitter.com/5Wvr8T8fc7Only the Liberian dollar, the Seychelle rupee and the Sao Tome & Principe dobra trading poorer than GBP today. pic.twitter.com/5Wvr8T8fc7
11.44am GMT11.44am GMT
11:4411:44
The sterling selloff is getting even worse, as the US financial markets shuffle into life after the weekend.The sterling selloff is getting even worse, as the US financial markets shuffle into life after the weekend.
The pound is now down by over 1.9% against the US dollar at $1.4122, a fall of 2.7 cents.The pound is now down by over 1.9% against the US dollar at $1.4122, a fall of 2.7 cents.
Dollar now up 2% against the poundDollar now up 2% against the pound
Wall Street investors may be frantically catching up with events across the Pond.Wall Street investors may be frantically catching up with events across the Pond.
Sterling is falling a bit more now that US traders are waking up and asking 'who the hell is this Boris guy?'Sterling is falling a bit more now that US traders are waking up and asking 'who the hell is this Boris guy?'
UpdatedUpdated
at 11.44am GMTat 11.44am GMT
11.42am GMT11.42am GMT
11:4211:42
Despite Boris’s backing the Out campaign still only have a 30% chance of victory, reckons Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group.Despite Boris’s backing the Out campaign still only have a 30% chance of victory, reckons Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group.
Rahman point out that the In campaign has the support of many other senior Conservatives, including Home Secretary Theresa May.Rahman point out that the In campaign has the support of many other senior Conservatives, including Home Secretary Theresa May.
And he predicts that David Cameron will relentlessly push his view that the UK’s new arrangement is “the best of both worlds.”And he predicts that David Cameron will relentlessly push his view that the UK’s new arrangement is “the best of both worlds.”
Here’s the key points from Rahman’s new research note:Here’s the key points from Rahman’s new research note:
11.18am GMT11.18am GMT
11:1811:18
Analyst: Here comes the great Brexit Selloff of 2016Analyst: Here comes the great Brexit Selloff of 2016
Today’s selloff could be the start of a significant slump in the value of the pound.Today’s selloff could be the start of a significant slump in the value of the pound.
So fears Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, who says the pound is “reeling” from the London Mayor’s move.So fears Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, who says the pound is “reeling” from the London Mayor’s move.
He writes:He writes:
“Sterling seems to have fallen off the Boris cliff this morning.....“Sterling seems to have fallen off the Boris cliff this morning.....
“Boris Johnson’s cleverly staged endorsement of the campaign to leave the United Kingdom grabbed headlines, and regardless of the London Mayor’s political motivations, this has had a sharp effect on sterling exchange rates. The implication is clear: while the Brexit referendum remains a live prospect, sterling is likely to be susceptible to these types of shocks, especially as the referendum date approaches.“Boris Johnson’s cleverly staged endorsement of the campaign to leave the United Kingdom grabbed headlines, and regardless of the London Mayor’s political motivations, this has had a sharp effect on sterling exchange rates. The implication is clear: while the Brexit referendum remains a live prospect, sterling is likely to be susceptible to these types of shocks, especially as the referendum date approaches.
“This could just be the start of the great Brexit Selloff of 2016. As June 23rd approaches, polling is likely to narrow between the yes and no camps. In the run-up to the Scottish referendum some polls were even showing the independence vote on top. The prospect of such an event is pretty sobering for sterling, which would likely fall through even the multi-year lows seen earlier this year if this weekend’s reaction is anything to go by.”“This could just be the start of the great Brexit Selloff of 2016. As June 23rd approaches, polling is likely to narrow between the yes and no camps. In the run-up to the Scottish referendum some polls were even showing the independence vote on top. The prospect of such an event is pretty sobering for sterling, which would likely fall through even the multi-year lows seen earlier this year if this weekend’s reaction is anything to go by.”
11.16am GMT11.16am GMT
11:1611:16
Weak pound helps British factoriesWeak pound helps British factories
Katie AllenKatie Allen
The business group CBI has some slightly brighter news for Britain’s struggling manufacturing sector this month.The business group CBI has some slightly brighter news for Britain’s struggling manufacturing sector this month.
Its latest poll of factory bosses found total order books remained steady after a fall in January, whilst export orders saw a very slight improvement from the previous month. Both now stand at around average levels.Its latest poll of factory bosses found total order books remained steady after a fall in January, whilst export orders saw a very slight improvement from the previous month. Both now stand at around average levels.
Rain Newton-Smith, CBI director of economics, notes that a weaker pound is helping exporters. She comments:Rain Newton-Smith, CBI director of economics, notes that a weaker pound is helping exporters. She comments:
“Demand and output have remained relatively unchanged from January’s performance. The challenging outlook for the manufacturing sector has stabilised a little, with sterling having depreciated, but Britain’s manufacturers are still facing a difficult global situation.”“Demand and output have remained relatively unchanged from January’s performance. The challenging outlook for the manufacturing sector has stabilised a little, with sterling having depreciated, but Britain’s manufacturers are still facing a difficult global situation.”
10.41am GMT10.41am GMT
10:4110:41
Investors are anticipating many long weeks of drama around the EU referendum, which could shift the markets:Investors are anticipating many long weeks of drama around the EU referendum, which could shift the markets:
Now that "Brexit" vote date has been decided we can now look forward to 4 months of name calling and scare mongering from both sides. #gbpNow that "Brexit" vote date has been decided we can now look forward to 4 months of name calling and scare mongering from both sides. #gbp
10.27am GMT10.27am GMT
10:2710:27
Here’s more reaction from the City to Boris’s intervention:Here’s more reaction from the City to Boris’s intervention:
Sterling's plunge for Boris larger than for the YouGov poll showing Yes winning in Scotland https://t.co/F5BvQSI8vU pic.twitter.com/Zrj1aEAcT0Sterling's plunge for Boris larger than for the YouGov poll showing Yes winning in Scotland https://t.co/F5BvQSI8vU pic.twitter.com/Zrj1aEAcT0
Sterling now seeing largest one day fall since 2010 General Election left us with a hung parliament.Sterling now seeing largest one day fall since 2010 General Election left us with a hung parliament.
Of course Boris is a big deal. He's probably most popular politician in a politician-hating country. That's why £ is off.Of course Boris is a big deal. He's probably most popular politician in a politician-hating country. That's why £ is off.
10.24am GMT10.24am GMT
10:2410:24
Moodys: Brexit costs outweigh benefitsMoodys: Brexit costs outweigh benefits
Rating agency Moody’s has weighed in on the EU referendum - warning that it could cut Britain’s credit rating if the Out Campaign win in June.Rating agency Moody’s has weighed in on the EU referendum - warning that it could cut Britain’s credit rating if the Out Campaign win in June.
It told clients this morning that the outcome of the referendum is “too close to call”, and that Brexit would harm the economy.It told clients this morning that the outcome of the referendum is “too close to call”, and that Brexit would harm the economy.
Here’s a flavour:Here’s a flavour:
In Moody’s view the economic costs of a decision to leave the EU would outweigh the economic benefits. Unless the UK managed to negotiate a new trade arrangement with the EU that preserves at least some of the trade benefits of EU membership, the UK’s exports would suffer. It would likely lead to a prolonged period of uncertainty, which would negatively affect investment, in Moody’s view.In Moody’s view the economic costs of a decision to leave the EU would outweigh the economic benefits. Unless the UK managed to negotiate a new trade arrangement with the EU that preserves at least some of the trade benefits of EU membership, the UK’s exports would suffer. It would likely lead to a prolonged period of uncertainty, which would negatively affect investment, in Moody’s view.
It would also place a significant burden on policy-makers who would have to renegotiate the UK’s trade relations with the EU and other countries and regions, as well as reconsider other areas such as regulatory and immigration policies....It would also place a significant burden on policy-makers who would have to renegotiate the UK’s trade relations with the EU and other countries and regions, as well as reconsider other areas such as regulatory and immigration policies....
Moody’s added that it could cut the outlook on Britain’s credit rating to ‘negative’ after the referendum.Moody’s added that it could cut the outlook on Britain’s credit rating to ‘negative’ after the referendum.
It says:It says:
Moody’s would consider reflecting those threats to the UK’s credit standing by assigning a negative outlook to the sovereign’s Aa1 rating following a vote to exit, pending greater clarity on the longer-term impact on the UK’s economic and financial strength.Moody’s would consider reflecting those threats to the UK’s credit standing by assigning a negative outlook to the sovereign’s Aa1 rating following a vote to exit, pending greater clarity on the longer-term impact on the UK’s economic and financial strength.
A negative outlook can be the first step towards a full-blown downgrade.A negative outlook can be the first step towards a full-blown downgrade.
UpdatedUpdated
at 1.25pm GMTat 1.25pm GMT
10.16am GMT10.16am GMT
10:1610:16
More bad news. The pound has hit a 15-month low against a basket of other currencies, according to a Reuters newsflash.More bad news. The pound has hit a 15-month low against a basket of other currencies, according to a Reuters newsflash.
Sterling is only at a three-week low against the US dollar. But if it loses another cent, it will be its lowest in over six years.Sterling is only at a three-week low against the US dollar. But if it loses another cent, it will be its lowest in over six years.
Pound once again approaching 2009 lows at prospect of UK's Jun referendum on EU membership. pic.twitter.com/acqEMzJX4sPound once again approaching 2009 lows at prospect of UK's Jun referendum on EU membership. pic.twitter.com/acqEMzJX4s