This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/feb/22/pound-falls-city-gets-brexit-jitters-business-live
The article has changed 21 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 8 | Version 9 |
|---|---|
| Pound suffers biggest one-day fall since 2010 after Boris Johnson's Brexit decision - business live | Pound suffers biggest one-day fall since 2010 after Boris Johnson's Brexit decision - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 12.48pm GMT | |
| 12:48 | |
| Pound hits lowest level since 2009 | |
| Breaking News: The pound has just hits its lowest point against the US dollar in almost seven years. | |
| Sterling has extended its losses, and just traded below $1.406 against the US dollar. | |
| That’s the lowest level since March 2009. The pound has now lost over three cents today, and has tumbled by over 2.3%. | |
| As this chart shows, the pound is its weakest since David Cameron came to power in May 2010. | |
| Today’s selloff is still the worst since the 2010 general election (which delivered a hung parliament). | |
| UK pound now -2% today, on course for its biggest loss since 2010 general election. pic.twitter.com/3h7rmlkETK | |
| Are we allowed to say Sterling Crisis now?! https://t.co/zdkjHlXTNC | |
| Today the £ is having its 35th worst day against the dollar since the currency floated in 1971. | |
| 12.38pm GMT | |
| 12:38 | |
| Bill O’Neill, head of the UK Investment Office at UBS Wealth Management, has predicted that the Leave campaign will soon run out of steam, despite the Boris bounce. | |
| “We expect UK markets to be volatile over coming days as the campaigns step up a gear and investors adjust to the prospect of a referendum four months from now, but our base case remains that the UK population will decide to remain in the EU. | |
| Our Brexit probability remains at 30% as we monitor the public response to the agreement with other EU members.” | |
| 12.24pm GMT | |
| 12:24 | |
| Jill Treanor | |
| Douglas Flint, chairman of HSBC, has warned that there will be a “heightened risk of uncertainty” if Britain votes to leave the EU. | |
| Flint said: | |
| “Every business in the UK would be reviewing its supply chain, legal agreements and its licences”. | |
| He said the UK had a disproportionately large number of companies headquartered here and “that period of uncertainty would be very damaging”. | |
| The bank has already said that the referendum or any vote to leave would not make it revisit its decision to remain headquartered in London, where it has been based since 1992. | |
| Chief executive Stuart Gulliver said that the broad impact on the UK would come from the fact that the EU is the country’s largest trading partner. But Gulliver said he did not expect London’s predominance as a foreign exchange trading market to be damaged. | |
| 12.22pm GMT | |
| 12:22 | |
| Citi says Brexit is more likely | |
| Investment bank Citi has just hiked its prediction for Brexit to between 30% and 40%. | |
| They took the move after Boris Johnson and Michael Gove (another senior Conservative) both backed the Out campaign over the weekend. | |
| That’s up from 20-30%, suggesting a greater chance that Britain leaves the EU.... | |
| ....or perhaps just greater uncertainty over the whole thing. | |
| Bank ups Brexit probability from 'Not Sure' to 'Mmm Dunno But A Bit More Than Not Sure'. Next stop: 'Coin Flip' | |
| 12.15pm GMT | |
| 12:15 | |
| The pound has now fallen to its lowest level in 22 months, when measured against a basket of other currencies (Reuters reports). | |
| Updated | |
| at 12.17pm GMT | |
| 11.58am GMT | 11.58am GMT |
| 11:58 | 11:58 |
| World First’s Jeremy Cook wins a small prize (a pound, perhaps?) for spotting that sterling isn’t the worst-performing currency today. | World First’s Jeremy Cook wins a small prize (a pound, perhaps?) for spotting that sterling isn’t the worst-performing currency today. |
| It’s pretty close, though - only Liberia, the Seychelles and the small African island of Sao Tome & Principe are having a bleaker day than Britain in the FX market. | It’s pretty close, though - only Liberia, the Seychelles and the small African island of Sao Tome & Principe are having a bleaker day than Britain in the FX market. |
| Only the Liberian dollar, the Seychelle rupee and the Sao Tome & Principe dobra trading poorer than GBP today. pic.twitter.com/5Wvr8T8fc7 | Only the Liberian dollar, the Seychelle rupee and the Sao Tome & Principe dobra trading poorer than GBP today. pic.twitter.com/5Wvr8T8fc7 |
| 11.44am GMT | 11.44am GMT |
| 11:44 | 11:44 |
| The sterling selloff is getting even worse, as the US financial markets shuffle into life after the weekend. | The sterling selloff is getting even worse, as the US financial markets shuffle into life after the weekend. |
| The pound is now down by over 1.9% against the US dollar at $1.4122, a fall of 2.7 cents. | The pound is now down by over 1.9% against the US dollar at $1.4122, a fall of 2.7 cents. |
| Dollar now up 2% against the pound | Dollar now up 2% against the pound |
| Wall Street investors may be frantically catching up with events across the Pond. | Wall Street investors may be frantically catching up with events across the Pond. |
| Sterling is falling a bit more now that US traders are waking up and asking 'who the hell is this Boris guy?' | Sterling is falling a bit more now that US traders are waking up and asking 'who the hell is this Boris guy?' |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 11.44am GMT | at 11.44am GMT |
| 11.42am GMT | 11.42am GMT |
| 11:42 | 11:42 |
| Despite Boris’s backing the Out campaign still only have a 30% chance of victory, reckons Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group. | Despite Boris’s backing the Out campaign still only have a 30% chance of victory, reckons Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group. |
| Rahman point out that the In campaign has the support of many other senior Conservatives, including Home Secretary Theresa May. | Rahman point out that the In campaign has the support of many other senior Conservatives, including Home Secretary Theresa May. |
| And he predicts that David Cameron will relentlessly push his view that the UK’s new arrangement is “the best of both worlds.” | And he predicts that David Cameron will relentlessly push his view that the UK’s new arrangement is “the best of both worlds.” |
| Here’s the key points from Rahman’s new research note: | Here’s the key points from Rahman’s new research note: |
| 11.18am GMT | 11.18am GMT |
| 11:18 | 11:18 |
| Analyst: Here comes the great Brexit Selloff of 2016 | Analyst: Here comes the great Brexit Selloff of 2016 |
| Today’s selloff could be the start of a significant slump in the value of the pound. | Today’s selloff could be the start of a significant slump in the value of the pound. |
| So fears Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, who says the pound is “reeling” from the London Mayor’s move. | So fears Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, who says the pound is “reeling” from the London Mayor’s move. |
| He writes: | He writes: |
| “Sterling seems to have fallen off the Boris cliff this morning..... | “Sterling seems to have fallen off the Boris cliff this morning..... |
| “Boris Johnson’s cleverly staged endorsement of the campaign to leave the United Kingdom grabbed headlines, and regardless of the London Mayor’s political motivations, this has had a sharp effect on sterling exchange rates. The implication is clear: while the Brexit referendum remains a live prospect, sterling is likely to be susceptible to these types of shocks, especially as the referendum date approaches. | “Boris Johnson’s cleverly staged endorsement of the campaign to leave the United Kingdom grabbed headlines, and regardless of the London Mayor’s political motivations, this has had a sharp effect on sterling exchange rates. The implication is clear: while the Brexit referendum remains a live prospect, sterling is likely to be susceptible to these types of shocks, especially as the referendum date approaches. |
| “This could just be the start of the great Brexit Selloff of 2016. As June 23rd approaches, polling is likely to narrow between the yes and no camps. In the run-up to the Scottish referendum some polls were even showing the independence vote on top. The prospect of such an event is pretty sobering for sterling, which would likely fall through even the multi-year lows seen earlier this year if this weekend’s reaction is anything to go by.” | “This could just be the start of the great Brexit Selloff of 2016. As June 23rd approaches, polling is likely to narrow between the yes and no camps. In the run-up to the Scottish referendum some polls were even showing the independence vote on top. The prospect of such an event is pretty sobering for sterling, which would likely fall through even the multi-year lows seen earlier this year if this weekend’s reaction is anything to go by.” |
| 11.16am GMT | 11.16am GMT |
| 11:16 | 11:16 |
| Weak pound helps British factories | Weak pound helps British factories |
| Katie Allen | Katie Allen |
| The business group CBI has some slightly brighter news for Britain’s struggling manufacturing sector this month. | The business group CBI has some slightly brighter news for Britain’s struggling manufacturing sector this month. |
| Its latest poll of factory bosses found total order books remained steady after a fall in January, whilst export orders saw a very slight improvement from the previous month. Both now stand at around average levels. | Its latest poll of factory bosses found total order books remained steady after a fall in January, whilst export orders saw a very slight improvement from the previous month. Both now stand at around average levels. |
| Rain Newton-Smith, CBI director of economics, notes that a weaker pound is helping exporters. She comments: | Rain Newton-Smith, CBI director of economics, notes that a weaker pound is helping exporters. She comments: |
| “Demand and output have remained relatively unchanged from January’s performance. The challenging outlook for the manufacturing sector has stabilised a little, with sterling having depreciated, but Britain’s manufacturers are still facing a difficult global situation.” | “Demand and output have remained relatively unchanged from January’s performance. The challenging outlook for the manufacturing sector has stabilised a little, with sterling having depreciated, but Britain’s manufacturers are still facing a difficult global situation.” |
| 10.41am GMT | 10.41am GMT |
| 10:41 | 10:41 |
| Investors are anticipating many long weeks of drama around the EU referendum, which could shift the markets: | Investors are anticipating many long weeks of drama around the EU referendum, which could shift the markets: |
| Now that "Brexit" vote date has been decided we can now look forward to 4 months of name calling and scare mongering from both sides. #gbp | Now that "Brexit" vote date has been decided we can now look forward to 4 months of name calling and scare mongering from both sides. #gbp |
| 10.27am GMT | 10.27am GMT |
| 10:27 | 10:27 |
| Here’s more reaction from the City to Boris’s intervention: | Here’s more reaction from the City to Boris’s intervention: |
| Sterling's plunge for Boris larger than for the YouGov poll showing Yes winning in Scotland https://t.co/F5BvQSI8vU pic.twitter.com/Zrj1aEAcT0 | Sterling's plunge for Boris larger than for the YouGov poll showing Yes winning in Scotland https://t.co/F5BvQSI8vU pic.twitter.com/Zrj1aEAcT0 |
| Sterling now seeing largest one day fall since 2010 General Election left us with a hung parliament. | Sterling now seeing largest one day fall since 2010 General Election left us with a hung parliament. |
| Of course Boris is a big deal. He's probably most popular politician in a politician-hating country. That's why £ is off. | Of course Boris is a big deal. He's probably most popular politician in a politician-hating country. That's why £ is off. |
| 10.24am GMT | 10.24am GMT |
| 10:24 | 10:24 |
| Moodys: We'd cut UK to negative if Out campaign win | |
| Rating agency Moody’s has weighed in on the EU referendum - warning that it could cut Britain’s credit rating if the Out Campaign win in June. | Rating agency Moody’s has weighed in on the EU referendum - warning that it could cut Britain’s credit rating if the Out Campaign win in June. |
| It told clients this morning that the outcome of the referendum is “too close to call”, and that Brexit would harm the economy. | It told clients this morning that the outcome of the referendum is “too close to call”, and that Brexit would harm the economy. |
| Here’s a flavour: | Here’s a flavour: |
| In Moody’s view the economic costs of a decision to leave the EU would outweigh the economic benefits. Unless the UK managed to negotiate a new trade arrangement with the EU that preserves at least some of the trade benefits of EU membership, the UK’s exports would suffer. It would likely lead to a prolonged period of uncertainty, which would negatively affect investment, in Moody’s view. | In Moody’s view the economic costs of a decision to leave the EU would outweigh the economic benefits. Unless the UK managed to negotiate a new trade arrangement with the EU that preserves at least some of the trade benefits of EU membership, the UK’s exports would suffer. It would likely lead to a prolonged period of uncertainty, which would negatively affect investment, in Moody’s view. |
| It would also place a significant burden on policy-makers who would have to renegotiate the UK’s trade relations with the EU and other countries and regions, as well as reconsider other areas such as regulatory and immigration policies.... | It would also place a significant burden on policy-makers who would have to renegotiate the UK’s trade relations with the EU and other countries and regions, as well as reconsider other areas such as regulatory and immigration policies.... |
| Moody’s added that it could cut the outlook on Britain’s credit rating to ‘negative’ after the referendum. | |
| It says: | |
| Moody’s would consider reflecting those threats to the UK’s credit standing by assigning a negative outlook to the sovereign’s Aa1 rating following a vote to exit, pending greater clarity on the longer-term impact on the UK’s economic and financial strength. | |
| A negative outlook can be the first step towards a full-blown downgrade. | |
| Updated | |
| at 12.32pm GMT | |
| 10.16am GMT | 10.16am GMT |
| 10:16 | 10:16 |
| More bad news. The pound has hit a 15-month low against a basket of other currencies, according to a Reuters newsflash. | More bad news. The pound has hit a 15-month low against a basket of other currencies, according to a Reuters newsflash. |
| Sterling is only at a three-week low against the US dollar. But if it loses another cent, it will be its lowest in over six years. | Sterling is only at a three-week low against the US dollar. But if it loses another cent, it will be its lowest in over six years. |
| Pound once again approaching 2009 lows at prospect of UK's Jun referendum on EU membership. pic.twitter.com/acqEMzJX4s | Pound once again approaching 2009 lows at prospect of UK's Jun referendum on EU membership. pic.twitter.com/acqEMzJX4s |