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Russia surprise withdrawal resonates from battlefield to peace talks Russia surprise withdrawal resonates from battlefield to peace talks
(about 1 hour later)
MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin’s snap decision that began a pullout of warplanes from Syria on Tuesday rearranged the lines of the grinding conflict — and solidified Moscow’s influence not only on the battlefield but at the negotiating table. MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin’s snap decision to pull warplanes from Syria on Tuesday rearranged the lines of the grinding conflict — and solidified Moscow’s influence not only on the battlefield but also at the negotiating table.
Russian aviators lifted off from air bases in Syria and arrived in Russia to a hero’s welcome six months after the Kremlin’s stunning decision to send its forces to help its key Middle East ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Russian aviators lifted off from air bases in Syria and arrived in Russia to a hero’s welcome six months after the Kremlin’s stunning decision to send forces to help its key Middle East ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
But Russia said it would leave powerful anti-aircraft systems in Syria, giving it iron leverage in the region and preserving the option of a speedy return. But Russia said it would leave powerful antiaircraft systems in Syria, giving it iron leverage in the region and preserving the option of a speedy return.
Meanwhile, the surprise withdrawal — taken without consulting Assad — jolted the peace discussions underway in Geneva and unnerved Syria and its allies. The surprise withdrawal — apparently taken without consulting with Assad — jolted the peace discussions underway in Geneva and unnerved Syria and its allies. Russia’s pullout will put significant pressure on Assad to work out a power-sharing agreement with the opposition, many analysts said, amid signs that the Syrian leader was being less accommodating to Putin than the Kremlin may have wished.
[How the Syrian revolt went so horribly, tragically wrong][How the Syrian revolt went so horribly, tragically wrong]
Russia’s pullout will put significant pressure on Assad to work out a power-sharing agreement with the opposition, many analysts said, amid signs that the Syrian leader was being less accommodating to Putin than the Kremlin may have wished.
It also won immediate diplomatic attention from the United States, something Putin has long hungered for. Secretary of State John F. Kerry plans to travel to Moscow next week to discuss the withdrawal and options for political transition in Syria.It also won immediate diplomatic attention from the United States, something Putin has long hungered for. Secretary of State John F. Kerry plans to travel to Moscow next week to discuss the withdrawal and options for political transition in Syria.
[The devastating ripple effects of Syria’s meltdown] Russian leaders said they would intensify their efforts to combat “terrorism” in Syria, leaving a mist of confusion around the precise contours of their plans, which may be exactly what they wanted to do.
Russian leaders also said that they would intensify their efforts to combat “terrorism” in Syria — often Russian shorthand for Assad foes — leaving a mist of confusion around the precise contours of their plans, which may be exactly what they wanted. Russian advisers embedded with the Syrian military plan to remain, Russian media reported, citing unnamed sources.
Russian advisers embedded with the Syrian military also plan to remain, Russian media reported, citing unnamed sources.
“We will not ease” the fight, Kremlin chief of staff Sergei Ivanov told reporters in Moscow on Tuesday. “We will intensify it. But for that end we do not need the contingent that is present today.”“We will not ease” the fight, Kremlin chief of staff Sergei Ivanov told reporters in Moscow on Tuesday. “We will intensify it. But for that end we do not need the contingent that is present today.”
The pullout — on the fifth anniversary of the start of peaceful protests in Syria — came after a six-month operation in which Russia whisked Assad from the verge of defeat and made it nearly impossible for him to be deposed by force. But there were growing signs that the Assad regime was pushing to recapture all of the territory he has lost, an effort that could have taken far longer and risked embroiling Russia in a long, costly war.
Instead, Russia is leaving a reduced force at its naval and air bases in Syria, and does not plan to remove its potent S-400 surface-to-air missile system, a senior Russian official said. That means that Russia will continue to control Syrian airspace, a deterrent to nations — such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and even the United States — that might contemplate instituting no-fly zones over parts of Syrian territory.
The high-tech antiaircraft system significantly alters the balance of the power in Syria and gives Russia a major foothold in the Middle East.
“When it is seen that the political component will move forward successfully, and the Syrian army and police are capable of destroying hotbeds of terrorism in Syria on their own, then we will possibly think about the S-400” and its removal, Viktor Ozerov, chairman of the defense and security committee of Russia’s upper house of parliament, told the Interfax news agency.
[No “Plan B” at Syrian peace talks][No “Plan B” at Syrian peace talks]
But even as Russian warplanes left Syria, some limits on the withdrawal were already taking shape. But even if a part of the force remains, the broader withdrawal suggests that Putin’s largest strategic coup may have been knowing when to pull back before he got embroiled in another resource-sucking Mideast conflict. President Obama had suggested that was the trajectory of the Russian intervention.
Russia plans to leave its powerful S-400 surface-to-air missile systems in place in Syria, a senior Russian official said. That means that Russia will continue to control Syrian airspace, a powerful deterrent to nations such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia — and even the United States — that might contemplate instituting no-fly zones over parts of Syrian territory. “It’s better to leave during a truce than to leave during a war,” said Alexander Baunov, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center. “Because to leave during war means being on the defensive. Leaving during a truce is victory.”
“When it is seen that the political component will move forward successfully, and the Syrian army and police are capable of destroying hotbeds of terrorism in Syria on their own, then we will possibly think about the S-400” and its removal, Viktor Ozerov, chairman of the defense and security committee of Russia’s upper house of parliament, told Interfax. In the West, observers said that Putin may truly be searching for a way to twist Assad’s arm into a deal now that Russia has averted the possibility of the violent removal of a key Arab ally.
The six-month deployment helped Assad’s forces retake almost 4,000 square miles of territory — nearly the size of Connecticut — eliminating the possibility that he might be deposed by force. It bolstered Russia’s main ally in the Arab world. It also bought Russia a role as a major player on the international stage, forcing the United States and other Western allies to bargain with Moscow after two years of isolation stemming from Russian intervention in Ukraine. “I think he’s giving peace a chance but taking out a huge insurance policy,” said Cliff Kupchan, a longtime Russia analyst who is chairman of the Eurasia Group, a political risk analysis group. “It’s a well-fortified breathing space for diplomacy.”
[Russia and U.S. find common ground with cease-fire] Assad’s envoys and representatives from the Syrian opposition were engaged in U.N.-brokered talks this week, although they appeared to be starting slowly.
Putin had always said that the deployment would be limited, and he appears to have concluded that Russia’s major aims were achieved after six months of airstrikes and other help to Assad’s forces. The Russian pullout “will have an actual impact on the talks,” Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. envoy leading the bargaining, said after meeting with representatives from the opposition delegation. Negotiations have “new momentum,” he said.
After after a cease-fire went into effect at the end of February, U.S. officials had become increasingly frustrated with their Russian partners, as pro-Assad forces continued to press an assault against the Syrian opposition. Russian airstrikes on opposition territory came to a virtual halt, officials said, even as Syrian government attacks continued. Diplomats and opposition members said the Russian move appears to have caught the Syrian government delegation to the talks off guard. As a result, they expect the talks to take a more serious course than the previous round, which unraveled because of the government’s Russian-backed offensive near the strategic Syrian city of Aleppo.
Overall, the cease-fire has brought a measure of peace to the devastated country. “I think the Syrian regime is feeling a little hung out to dry” because of Putin’s announcement, said a Western diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a lack of authorization to discuss the issue publicly.
Assad’s envoys and representatives from the Syrian opposition were engaged in U.N.-brokered talks this week, although they appeared to be starting slowly. Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. envoy leading the bargaining, met Monday with regime envoys and was due to meet later Tuesday with the opposition leaders, who planned to mark the grim five-year anniversary with a ceremony in a garden at U.N. headquarters in Geneva. But thorny issues remain. The opposition notified de Mistura of its concern about a lack of promised humanitarian aid to besieged Syrians and detainees held in government prisons.
De Mistura praised the Russian move on Tuesday, saying in a statement that it was “a significant development, which we hope will have a positive impact on the progress of the negotiations in Geneva.” [Surrounded by suffering, death in a besieged Syrian town]
In central Damascus, there was little sign of the anniversary of the conflict, which began with mass protests against Assad’s government. The regime does not mark the occasion. Streets were filled with commuters and shoppers as usual, in a city that has taken on a new air of confidence in recent months after the Russian intervention. In central Damascus on Tuesday, there was little sign of the anniversary of the conflict, which began with mass protests against Assad’s government. The regime does not mark the occasion. Streets were filled with commuters and shoppers as usual in a city that has taken on a new air of confidence in recent months after the Russian intervention.
[8 stories to read if you want to understand the Syrian conflict] Syrian state media tried to play down the significance of Russia’s pullback. State television stressed that the decision was made in coordination with the Syrian government, even though a day earlier the Kremlin said it had not consulted with its Syrian partners before the move.
Syrian state media tried to play down the significance of Russia’s pullback. State television stressed that the decision was made in coordination with the Syrian government, even though a day earlier the Kremlin said that it had not consulted with its Syrian partners before the move. Other allies of the Assad government also said they were surprised by the Russian announcement.
“I assure the counterterrorism process is continuing seriously and solidly,” Syrian Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi told state TV. “Russia is committed to Syria, and Syria is committed to Russia.” The snap pullout “came as a shock,” said an official with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Shiite militia that has sent fighters to Syria to aid Assad. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the group’s internal deliberations.
But other allies of the Assad government said the Russian announcement had caught them off guard.
The snap pullout “came as a shock,” said an official with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Shiite militia that has sent fighters to Syria to aid Assad. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the group’s internal deliberations.
“We have to wait and see the real intentions of the Russians, because at the end there is fear that Hezbollah would be paying the price,” the official said.“We have to wait and see the real intentions of the Russians, because at the end there is fear that Hezbollah would be paying the price,” the official said.
Opponents of the Syrian regime also appeared eager to take advantage of the turnabout. A commander of the al-Qaeda-aligned Jabhat al-Nusra, a faction fighting in Syria, told the Agence France-Presse news agency that the group was preparing an offensive “in the next 48 hours.” Opponents of the Syrian regime appeared eager to take advantage of the turnabout. A commander of Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda-aligned faction fighting in Syria, told the Agence France-Presse news agency that the group was preparing an offensive “in the next 48 hours.”
Russian state television — a reliable barometer of the message that the Kremlin wants to send its citizens — moved quickly to portray the pullout as a capstone to a successful Russian military foray. Even the meteorologists got involved, showing the flight paths of the planes and the likely weather along the way, including some thunderstorms. Naylor reported from Geneva. Loveday Morris in Damascus, Suzan Haidamous in Beirut and Andrew Roth in Moscow contributed to this report.
The mission was Russia’s first combat deployment outside the borders of the former Soviet Union since the country’s 1991 breakup. Military leaders in Moscow had been eager to show off their capabilities, particularly after a brief 2008 war in Georgia exposed surprising weaknesses in the army. Russian military analysts spoke brightly of the preparations for Russian soldiers; the Defense Ministry even shifted part of its training budget to Syria.
Hugh Naylor in Geneva, Loveday Morris in Damascus, Suzan Haidamous in Beirut and Andrew Roth in Moscow contributed to this report.
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