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| Trump and Clinton stare down deficits ahead of Wisconsin primary – campaign live | Trump and Clinton stare down deficits ahead of Wisconsin primary – campaign live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 3.47pm BST | |
| 15:47 | |
| Kasich raises funds on Trump's call for him to drop out | |
| The John Kasich camp has sent a fundraising email highlighting his opponents’ claims that his presence in the race is blocking them from victory. | |
| The fundraising email – subject line: “wild weekend” – features a Donald Trump quote from a Wisconsin rally: “If I didn’t have Kasich, I automatically win.” | |
| Ted Cruz, meanwhile, released his first anti-Kasich TV ad in Wisconsin. Titled “John Kasich: not for us,” the ad spins a dark web of accusation but basically says Kasich handed out tax breaks in return for political contributions. | |
| Team Kasich’s push in Wisconsin also includes an endorsement from Tommy Thompson, who was governor of Wisconsin for 14 years: | |
| Fmr WI Gov. Tommy Thompson backs John Kasich because America needs a president ready on Day One.https://t.co/HT8Yp5RsIb | |
| The Kasich camp has been frank about its strategy of winning the nomination in a contested convention. Kasich has captured only 143 delegates so far, to Cruz’s 463 and Trump’s 736. | |
| 3.29pm BST | 3.29pm BST |
| 15:29 | 15:29 |
| If Trump loses Wisconsin, does that mean that he is finally fading in his fight for the presidential nomination? | If Trump loses Wisconsin, does that mean that he is finally fading in his fight for the presidential nomination? |
| Short answer: depends on what happens after Wisconsin. What? It does. But don’t take our word for it. Here’s a good thread from this morning / this weekend on the question: | Short answer: depends on what happens after Wisconsin. What? It does. But don’t take our word for it. Here’s a good thread from this morning / this weekend on the question: |
| So you think Trump is finally fading. Okay. Will you think that after he wins big in the Northeast in three weeks? | So you think Trump is finally fading. Okay. Will you think that after he wins big in the Northeast in three weeks? |
| Going to be a real temptation to say Trump is in trouble after Wisconsin. Fact is he'll likely crush in NY two weeks later. | Going to be a real temptation to say Trump is in trouble after Wisconsin. Fact is he'll likely crush in NY two weeks later. |
| As for me, yes: Trump "fading" if he loses WI b/c, mathematically, he's likely done for 1,237. Big NY/NJ/CT/RI wins priced in. @Nate_Cohn. | As for me, yes: Trump "fading" if he loses WI b/c, mathematically, he's likely done for 1,237. Big NY/NJ/CT/RI wins priced in. @Nate_Cohn. |
| Big q is implications of WI loss for IN, SD, MT, etc. Also, what is going on on the West Coast. https://t.co/G3DtFKEpPG | Big q is implications of WI loss for IN, SD, MT, etc. Also, what is going on on the West Coast. https://t.co/G3DtFKEpPG |
| In fact, sweeping the Eastern seaboard wouldn't even get Trump above 1,000 delegates, even with New Jersey tossed in. | In fact, sweeping the Eastern seaboard wouldn't even get Trump above 1,000 delegates, even with New Jersey tossed in. |
| Even if he wins WI & everything else, Trump can't clinch the nomination before California on June 7 https://t.co/MkNZwjaIeC | Even if he wins WI & everything else, Trump can't clinch the nomination before California on June 7 https://t.co/MkNZwjaIeC |
| And read our analysis here: | And read our analysis here: |
| Related: Trump poised for Wisconsin setback after campaign's worst week | Related: Trump poised for Wisconsin setback after campaign's worst week |
| 3.18pm BST | 3.18pm BST |
| 15:18 | 15:18 |
| Here’s someone pouring cold water on talk of House speaker Paul Ryan emerging triumphant from the national convention to become the Republican nominee for president: Paul Ryan. | Here’s someone pouring cold water on talk of House speaker Paul Ryan emerging triumphant from the national convention to become the Republican nominee for president: Paul Ryan. |
| “I decided not to run for president,” Ryan told the Times of Israel Sunday, on a visit to Jerusalem. “I think you should run if you’re going to be president. “I think you should start in Iowa and run to the tape.” | “I decided not to run for president,” Ryan told the Times of Israel Sunday, on a visit to Jerusalem. “I think you should run if you’re going to be president. “I think you should start in Iowa and run to the tape.” |
| It’s Ryan’s first trip abroad as speaker. | It’s Ryan’s first trip abroad as speaker. |
| 2.16pm BST | 2.16pm BST |
| 14:16 | 14:16 |
| Hello, and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. Next stop: Wisconsin, tomorrow, with 42 Republican and 86 Democratic delegates at stake (our comprehensive delegates tracker is here). | Hello, and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. Next stop: Wisconsin, tomorrow, with 42 Republican and 86 Democratic delegates at stake (our comprehensive delegates tracker is here). |
| Donald Trump is braced for an electoral setback in the midwest on Tuesday, after suffering the worst week so far in his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, writes Jon Swaine: | Donald Trump is braced for an electoral setback in the midwest on Tuesday, after suffering the worst week so far in his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, writes Jon Swaine: |
| The property developer and TV host is expected to lose the Wisconsin primary to Ted Cruz, the firebrand Texas senator who is the leading hope of conservatives scrambling to stop him as part of a deepening civil war within the Republican party. | The property developer and TV host is expected to lose the Wisconsin primary to Ted Cruz, the firebrand Texas senator who is the leading hope of conservatives scrambling to stop him as part of a deepening civil war within the Republican party. |
| Cruz has led Trump in all polls of the state in the past week, with two surveys placing his advantage as high as 10 percentage points. Analysts forecast that Cruz could win 39 of the potentially crucial 42 party delegates at stake in the race to the 1,237-delegate finish line. | Cruz has led Trump in all polls of the state in the past week, with two surveys placing his advantage as high as 10 percentage points. Analysts forecast that Cruz could win 39 of the potentially crucial 42 party delegates at stake in the race to the 1,237-delegate finish line. |
| Related: Trump poised for Wisconsin setback after campaign's worst week | Related: Trump poised for Wisconsin setback after campaign's worst week |
| And for those readers in whom the prospect of a wildly contested Republican convention inspires shivers of anticipatory delight, Politico’s Mike Allen has got your shivers – the Paul Ryan kind: | And for those readers in whom the prospect of a wildly contested Republican convention inspires shivers of anticipatory delight, Politico’s Mike Allen has got your shivers – the Paul Ryan kind: |
| EXCLUSIVE : On the eve of the Wisconsin primaries, top Republicans are becoming increasingly vocal about their long-held belief that Speaker Paul Ryan will wind up as the nominee, perhaps on the fourth ballot at a chaotic Cleveland convention. One of the nation’s best-wired Republicans, with an enviable prediction record for this cycle, sees a 60% chance of a convention deadlock, and a 90% chance that delegates turn to Ryan – ergo, a 54% chance that Ryan, who’ll start the third week of July as chairman of the Republican National Convention, will end it as the nominee. “He’s the most conservative, least establishment member of the establishment,” the Republican source said. “That’s what you need to be.” | EXCLUSIVE : On the eve of the Wisconsin primaries, top Republicans are becoming increasingly vocal about their long-held belief that Speaker Paul Ryan will wind up as the nominee, perhaps on the fourth ballot at a chaotic Cleveland convention. One of the nation’s best-wired Republicans, with an enviable prediction record for this cycle, sees a 60% chance of a convention deadlock, and a 90% chance that delegates turn to Ryan – ergo, a 54% chance that Ryan, who’ll start the third week of July as chairman of the Republican National Convention, will end it as the nominee. “He’s the most conservative, least establishment member of the establishment,” the Republican source said. “That’s what you need to be.” |
| Ryan, who’s more calculating and ambitious than he lets on, is running the same playbook he did to become Speaker: saying he doesn’t want it, that it won’t happen. In both cases, the maximum leverage is to NOT WANT IT – and to be begged to do it. He and his staff are trying to be as Shermanesque as it gets. Ryan repeated his lack of interest this morning in an interview from Israel with radio host Hugh Hewitt. | Ryan, who’s more calculating and ambitious than he lets on, is running the same playbook he did to become Speaker: saying he doesn’t want it, that it won’t happen. In both cases, the maximum leverage is to NOT WANT IT – and to be begged to do it. He and his staff are trying to be as Shermanesque as it gets. Ryan repeated his lack of interest this morning in an interview from Israel with radio host Hugh Hewitt. |
| The Bernie Sanders campaign, meanwhile, is urging its supporters to stay away from a Trump rally due to take place yards away today, write Dan Roberts and Ben Jacobs: | The Bernie Sanders campaign, meanwhile, is urging its supporters to stay away from a Trump rally due to take place yards away today, write Dan Roberts and Ben Jacobs: |
| Two of the most vocal groups of activists in the 2016 presidential race will be separated by a single street in downtown Milwaukee and a tight security presence when both of their campaign events begin at about 7pm on Monday. | Two of the most vocal groups of activists in the 2016 presidential race will be separated by a single street in downtown Milwaukee and a tight security presence when both of their campaign events begin at about 7pm on Monday. |
| Related: Wisconsin: Sanders supporters advised to avoid Trump rally | Related: Wisconsin: Sanders supporters advised to avoid Trump rally |
| The latest polls may give Sanders a comfortable lead over former secretary of state Hillary Clinton in the Badger State, but a Saturday night gala – filled with union members and party stalwarts – was definitely Clinton territory, even just judging by the number of standing ovations and the amount of sustained applause for the candidates’ speeches, writes Megan Carpentier: | The latest polls may give Sanders a comfortable lead over former secretary of state Hillary Clinton in the Badger State, but a Saturday night gala – filled with union members and party stalwarts – was definitely Clinton territory, even just judging by the number of standing ovations and the amount of sustained applause for the candidates’ speeches, writes Megan Carpentier: |
| If you are a socialist running for the Democratic nomination for president and have received more than six million individual contributions totalling more than $100m, but you won’t say if you’ll use any of that money to help Democratic nominees for the House or the the Senate, it’s possible that the place to call your two million donors “the future of the Democratic party” is not the Founders Day gala of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. There, the cheap seats go for $150 and the platinum sponsorship (a table for 10 with six VIP tickets) will run you $12,000. | If you are a socialist running for the Democratic nomination for president and have received more than six million individual contributions totalling more than $100m, but you won’t say if you’ll use any of that money to help Democratic nominees for the House or the the Senate, it’s possible that the place to call your two million donors “the future of the Democratic party” is not the Founders Day gala of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. There, the cheap seats go for $150 and the platinum sponsorship (a table for 10 with six VIP tickets) will run you $12,000. |
| Even if, like Bernie Sanders on Saturday night, you’re playing more to the television cameras in the back of the room and the general admission seats on house right than the audience directly in front of you, making such statements will still leave a huge expanse of silent ballroom between you and those cameras. | Even if, like Bernie Sanders on Saturday night, you’re playing more to the television cameras in the back of the room and the general admission seats on house right than the audience directly in front of you, making such statements will still leave a huge expanse of silent ballroom between you and those cameras. |
| Related: Sanders leads polls but Clinton wins more crowd support at Wisconsin gala | Related: Sanders leads polls but Clinton wins more crowd support at Wisconsin gala |
| Thanks for reading, and please don’t delay in letting us know what’s on your Monday mind in the comments. | Thanks for reading, and please don’t delay in letting us know what’s on your Monday mind in the comments. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.17pm BST | at 2.17pm BST |