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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| UK growth slows to 0.4% - live updates | UK growth slows to 0.4% - live updates |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 10.35am BST | |
| 10:35 | |
| Britain’s economy has hit a ‘soft patch’, warns John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC. | |
| He blames: | |
| ...heightened uncertainties about the global economy at the start of the year, which hit the export-oriented manufacturing sector and also took the wind out of the sails of the key business and financial services sector, where growth slowed from 0.7% in the final quarter of 2015 to just 0.3% in the first quarter of 2016. | |
| Brexit uncertainty isn’t helping. | |
| “Uncertainty about the EU referendum outcome may also have had an impact from late February onwards as it became clear there would be an early vote in June. This may have led to some delay in major investment decisions, as indicated by weak construction output in the first quarter. | |
| Hawksworth hopes, though, that growth will rebound later in the year: | |
| UK economy hit a soft patch in early 2016 but @PwC_UK chief economist John Hawksworth is cautiously optimistic: https://t.co/iu2bYpBJvL #GDP | |
| 10.26am BST | |
| 10:26 | |
| GDP: More detail | |
| Today’s report shows that growth in the business services and finance slowed to +0.3%, from +0.7% in the last quarter of 2013. | |
| This is the main reason that total Services growth slowed from 0.8% to 0.6%, the ONS says. | |
| That backs up the theory that stock market turbulence hurt growth. It may also indicate nervousness about the EU referendum, though, as many City firms oppose Brexit. | |
| In the production sector, mining and quarrying output shrank by 2.2%, while manufacturing decreasing by 0.4% | |
| And Britain’s total economy is now 7.3% higher than before the financial crisis - making it the third best-performing G7 economy. | |
| 10.09am BST | 10.09am BST |
| 10:09 | 10:09 |
| Ms Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF, questions whether Brexit is really to blame: | Ms Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF, questions whether Brexit is really to blame: |
| The effects of global financial market volatility, stuttering world trade growth and challenges on the high street feel like more obvious explanations for the slowdown. | The effects of global financial market volatility, stuttering world trade growth and challenges on the high street feel like more obvious explanations for the slowdown. |
| Still, referendum wobbles could make themselves felt in the coming months, highlighting the continuing downside risks for the economy this year” | Still, referendum wobbles could make themselves felt in the coming months, highlighting the continuing downside risks for the economy this year” |
| 10.01am BST | 10.01am BST |
| 10:01 | 10:01 |
| Here’s Chancellor George Osborne’s official response to the news that Britain’s economy is slowing.... | Here’s Chancellor George Osborne’s official response to the news that Britain’s economy is slowing.... |
| “It’s good news that Britain continues to grow, but there are warnings today that the threat of leaving the EU is weighing on our economy. | “It’s good news that Britain continues to grow, but there are warnings today that the threat of leaving the EU is weighing on our economy. |
| “Investments and building are being delayed, and another group of international experts, the OECD, confirms British families would be worse off if we leave the EU. | “Investments and building are being delayed, and another group of international experts, the OECD, confirms British families would be worse off if we leave the EU. |
| “Let’s not put the strong economy we’re building at risk, and vote to Remain on June 23.” | “Let’s not put the strong economy we’re building at risk, and vote to Remain on June 23.” |
| Reminder: the OECD report is due out at 10.30 BST, but the group has already called Brexit a ‘bad decision’ this morning. | Reminder: the OECD report is due out at 10.30 BST, but the group has already called Brexit a ‘bad decision’ this morning. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.04am BST | at 10.04am BST |
| 9.56am BST | 9.56am BST |
| 09:56 | 09:56 |
| ING: Brexit will hurt growth | ING: Brexit will hurt growth |
| James Knightley of ING Bank fears that growth is continuing to weaken in the run-up to June’s referendum. | James Knightley of ING Bank fears that growth is continuing to weaken in the run-up to June’s referendum. |
| He says: | He says: |
| We suspect that second-quarter GDP growth will be even weaker given the threat of Brexit is negatively impacting business sentiment, leading to a reduction in risks appetite regarding hiring and investment decisions. | We suspect that second-quarter GDP growth will be even weaker given the threat of Brexit is negatively impacting business sentiment, leading to a reduction in risks appetite regarding hiring and investment decisions. |
| Indeed, unemployment actually rose in the three months to February while consumer confidence is also coming under pressure. | Indeed, unemployment actually rose in the three months to February while consumer confidence is also coming under pressure. |
| 9.54am BST | 9.54am BST |
| 09:54 | 09:54 |
| City economist Alan Clarke, of Scotiabank, reckons we can’t blame Brexit fears for the economic slowdown, yet.... | City economist Alan Clarke, of Scotiabank, reckons we can’t blame Brexit fears for the economic slowdown, yet.... |
| Instead, he argues that the financial market turbulence at the start of 2016 hurt confidence. | Instead, he argues that the financial market turbulence at the start of 2016 hurt confidence. |
| That is not to say that Brexit uncertainty won’t have an impact on GDP growth – it will. | That is not to say that Brexit uncertainty won’t have an impact on GDP growth – it will. |
| However, this is likely to be visible via reduced investment and hiring and will show up in Q2 GDP. The first estimate of that will come out in late-July – a month after the actual vote. | However, this is likely to be visible via reduced investment and hiring and will show up in Q2 GDP. The first estimate of that will come out in late-July – a month after the actual vote. |
| For now, 0.4% q/q isn’t terrible – it could have been worse | For now, 0.4% q/q isn’t terrible – it could have been worse |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.58am BST | at 9.58am BST |
| 9.48am BST | 9.48am BST |
| 09:48 | 09:48 |
| Osborne blames Brexit fears | Osborne blames Brexit fears |
| As predicted, the chancellor has claimed that uncertainty over Britain’s EU membership is hurting the economy: | As predicted, the chancellor has claimed that uncertainty over Britain’s EU membership is hurting the economy: |
| GDP is up 0.4%. UK continues to grow but OECD warns today that threat of a vote to Leave the EU is weighing on economy | GDP is up 0.4%. UK continues to grow but OECD warns today that threat of a vote to Leave the EU is weighing on economy |
| 9.45am BST | 9.45am BST |
| 09:45 | 09:45 |
| ONS chief economist Joe Grice says: | ONS chief economist Joe Grice says: |
| “Today’s figures suggest growth has slowed as compared with the pace up to the middle of last year. | “Today’s figures suggest growth has slowed as compared with the pace up to the middle of last year. |
| Services continue to underpin the economy but other sectors have shown falling output this quarter. | Services continue to underpin the economy but other sectors have shown falling output this quarter. |
| That’s a blow to hopes of rebalancing the UK economy, as manufacturing, construction and agriculture are still smaller than before the financial crisis. | That’s a blow to hopes of rebalancing the UK economy, as manufacturing, construction and agriculture are still smaller than before the financial crisis. |
| 9.39am BST | 9.39am BST |
| 09:39 | 09:39 |
| Service sector grows, everything else shrinks | Service sector grows, everything else shrinks |
| Britain’s service sector was the only part of the economy to grow in the last quarter! | Britain’s service sector was the only part of the economy to grow in the last quarter! |
| Manufacturing, building and farming all contracted, leaving the UK even more reliant on the already dominant service sector. | Manufacturing, building and farming all contracted, leaving the UK even more reliant on the already dominant service sector. |
| Here’s the details: | Here’s the details: |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.49am BST | at 9.49am BST |
| 9.36am BST | 9.36am BST |
| 09:36 | 09:36 |
| 9.30am BST | 9.30am BST |
| 09:30 | 09:30 |
| UK GROWTH SLOWS TO 0.4% | UK GROWTH SLOWS TO 0.4% |
| Breaking: UK economic growth has slowed to 0.4% in the first three months of this year. | Breaking: UK economic growth has slowed to 0.4% in the first three months of this year. |
| That’s a sharp slowdown, compared to the 0.6% recorded between October and December last year. | That’s a sharp slowdown, compared to the 0.6% recorded between October and December last year. |
| More to follow.... | More to follow.... |
| 9.14am BST | 9.14am BST |
| 09:14 | 09:14 |
| CNBC also predicts that Brexit fears are weighing on UK growth: | CNBC also predicts that Brexit fears are weighing on UK growth: |
| The UK economy is expected to post a sharp slowdown in growth in the first quarter amid concerns that a forthcoming vote on the country’s membership of the European Union is scaring investors and industry. | The UK economy is expected to post a sharp slowdown in growth in the first quarter amid concerns that a forthcoming vote on the country’s membership of the European Union is scaring investors and industry. |
| Market analysts believe that preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) estimates released on Wednesday morning will show a slowdown in the first quarter to 0.4 percent, down from 0.6 percent in the previous quarter. | Market analysts believe that preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) estimates released on Wednesday morning will show a slowdown in the first quarter to 0.4 percent, down from 0.6 percent in the previous quarter. |
| Some analysts, such as those from Barclays and Pantheon Macroeconomics, thought the slowdown could be more pronounced, however, to 0.3%. | Some analysts, such as those from Barclays and Pantheon Macroeconomics, thought the slowdown could be more pronounced, however, to 0.3%. |
| The anticipated slowdown has been attributed by all analysts to the “increasing EU referendum risk,” as Barclays’ analysts said in a note on Wednesday, and fears of a so-called “Brexit” should U.K. voters elect to leave the EU when a referendum is held on June 23. | The anticipated slowdown has been attributed by all analysts to the “increasing EU referendum risk,” as Barclays’ analysts said in a note on Wednesday, and fears of a so-called “Brexit” should U.K. voters elect to leave the EU when a referendum is held on June 23. |
| UK GDP expected to show slowdown as Brexit fear bites https://t.co/dIwTCCATR2 pic.twitter.com/8nm91t4Dma | UK GDP expected to show slowdown as Brexit fear bites https://t.co/dIwTCCATR2 pic.twitter.com/8nm91t4Dma |
| 8.52am BST | 8.52am BST |
| 08:52 | 08:52 |
| Shares in Barclays have jumped almost 4% to the top of the London stock market leaderboard. | Shares in Barclays have jumped almost 4% to the top of the London stock market leaderboard. |
| Although Barclays posted a 33% drop in pre-tax profits this morning, traders are encouraged that the bank has received approaches for its African business (former CEO Bob Diamond is interested, for starters) | Although Barclays posted a 33% drop in pre-tax profits this morning, traders are encouraged that the bank has received approaches for its African business (former CEO Bob Diamond is interested, for starters) |
| Related: Barclays reports 25% profit slump and confirms interest in Africa arm | Related: Barclays reports 25% profit slump and confirms interest in Africa arm |
| Strip out £374m charge in its non-core results, and #Barclays performance not so bad say analysts, ROE core = 9.9% pic.twitter.com/9HB7Tdv4V4 | Strip out £374m charge in its non-core results, and #Barclays performance not so bad say analysts, ROE core = 9.9% pic.twitter.com/9HB7Tdv4V4 |
| 8.33am BST | 8.33am BST |
| 08:33 | 08:33 |
| Here’s what City economists are saying about this morning’s growth figures, due in an hour’s time. | Here’s what City economists are saying about this morning’s growth figures, due in an hour’s time. |
| Howard Archer of IHS Global insight, predicts EU referendum fears will knock back growth to 0.3% for the first quarter (down from 0.6%) | Howard Archer of IHS Global insight, predicts EU referendum fears will knock back growth to 0.3% for the first quarter (down from 0.6%) |
| “In particular, this is expected to weigh down on business investment and employment, and it may well also limit consumers’ willingness to splash out on big-ticket items. | “In particular, this is expected to weigh down on business investment and employment, and it may well also limit consumers’ willingness to splash out on big-ticket items. |
| Muted global growth and recent financial market volatility will also hamper UK economic activity in the near term at least.” | Muted global growth and recent financial market volatility will also hamper UK economic activity in the near term at least.” |
| Tony Cross of Trustnet believes City investors will take the news calmly: | Tony Cross of Trustnet believes City investors will take the news calmly: |
| We’ve got UK GDP data later this morning and with the Brexit effect having been seen in other Q1 metrics, this is likely to reflect badly on the headline figures but the market may well be willing to overlook any wobbles here, given the evolving sentiment. | We’ve got UK GDP data later this morning and with the Brexit effect having been seen in other Q1 metrics, this is likely to reflect badly on the headline figures but the market may well be willing to overlook any wobbles here, given the evolving sentiment. |
| UK Q1 GDP up at 9:30am - getting ready for the excuses that Brexit risk weighing on economy, even though global GDP has also slowed. #gbp | UK Q1 GDP up at 9:30am - getting ready for the excuses that Brexit risk weighing on economy, even though global GDP has also slowed. #gbp |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.33am BST | at 8.33am BST |
| 8.08am BST | 8.08am BST |
| 08:08 | 08:08 |
| OECD: Brexit is a bad decision | OECD: Brexit is a bad decision |
| The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has become the latest international body to warn Britain against leaving the EU. | The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has become the latest international body to warn Britain against leaving the EU. |
| They are publishing a new Brexit report this morning, but OECD chief Ángel Gurría has broken his own embargo and spilled the beans on the Today Programme. | They are publishing a new Brexit report this morning, but OECD chief Ángel Gurría has broken his own embargo and spilled the beans on the Today Programme. |
| Gurría declared that “Brexit is a tax”, effectively costing us all one month’s salary by the end of the decade. | Gurría declared that “Brexit is a tax”, effectively costing us all one month’s salary by the end of the decade. |
| In the end we come out saying “Why are we spending so much time, so much effort, so much talent, trying to find ways to compensate for a bad decision that you don’t have to take. | In the end we come out saying “Why are we spending so much time, so much effort, so much talent, trying to find ways to compensate for a bad decision that you don’t have to take. |
| Gurría added that Britain won’t get a better deal on trade or migration if it leaves the EU - a claim Out campaigns would obviously dispute. | Gurría added that Britain won’t get a better deal on trade or migration if it leaves the EU - a claim Out campaigns would obviously dispute. |
| We’ll have more details at 10.30am BST. After the embargo lifts, Ángel..... | We’ll have more details at 10.30am BST. After the embargo lifts, Ángel..... |
| .@A_Gurria of @OECD on @BBCr4today says #Brexit would constitue a heavy tax on #UK households already being felt pic.twitter.com/B6uPCOWjUA | .@A_Gurria of @OECD on @BBCr4today says #Brexit would constitue a heavy tax on #UK households already being felt pic.twitter.com/B6uPCOWjUA |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.19am BST | at 8.19am BST |
| 8.00am BST | 8.00am BST |
| 08:00 | 08:00 |
| Sky: Osborne to blame Brexit fears | Sky: Osborne to blame Brexit fears |
| If today’s growth figures are bad, you can expect George Osborne to blame Brexit fears. | If today’s growth figures are bad, you can expect George Osborne to blame Brexit fears. |
| The chancellor has already been warning that economic confidence has been hurt by the upcoming EU referendum (his party’s bright idea, let’s not forget). | The chancellor has already been warning that economic confidence has been hurt by the upcoming EU referendum (his party’s bright idea, let’s not forget). |
| Sky News’s Faisal Islam predicts that Osborne will stick to this message: | Sky News’s Faisal Islam predicts that Osborne will stick to this message: |
| Chancellor George Osborne is set to repeat his argument that the EU referendum is already weighing down the UK economy. | Chancellor George Osborne is set to repeat his argument that the EU referendum is already weighing down the UK economy. |
| The key measure of economic growth - the GDP figure for the first three months of this year - will be released later today. | The key measure of economic growth - the GDP figure for the first three months of this year - will be released later today. |
| It is expected to be markedly down from the last quarter of 2015. | It is expected to be markedly down from the last quarter of 2015. |
| A slowdown from the 0.6% growth registered in Q4 in 2015 has been anticipated by both the Bank of England and independent economists. | A slowdown from the 0.6% growth registered in Q4 in 2015 has been anticipated by both the Bank of England and independent economists. |
| GDP growth is expected to have slipped to 0.4% in Q1 of 2016..... | GDP growth is expected to have slipped to 0.4% in Q1 of 2016..... |
| Slowing economy - Weaker Q1 GDP number expected at 930 - Chancellor has been pointing to EU Referendum effect https://t.co/OT2h1UVunU | Slowing economy - Weaker Q1 GDP number expected at 930 - Chancellor has been pointing to EU Referendum effect https://t.co/OT2h1UVunU |
| 7.47am BST | 7.47am BST |
| 07:47 | 07:47 |
| The agenda: UK GDP, Barclays earnings and Greek drama | The agenda: UK GDP, Barclays earnings and Greek drama |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| We’re about to get a fresh healthcheck on the UK economy, and the results may not be too pretty. | We’re about to get a fresh healthcheck on the UK economy, and the results may not be too pretty. |
| Britain’s growth is expected to have slowed pretty sharply in the last three months, from 0.6% to 0.4%, or possibly even worse. | Britain’s growth is expected to have slowed pretty sharply in the last three months, from 0.6% to 0.4%, or possibly even worse. |
| Weakness in the global economy is partly to blame, such as the slowdown in China’s economy. The turmoil that gripped the stock markets in January and early February may also have had an impact on confidence, spending and investment. | Weakness in the global economy is partly to blame, such as the slowdown in China’s economy. The turmoil that gripped the stock markets in January and early February may also have had an impact on confidence, spending and investment. |
| Domestic issues are another factor; how much damage has the uncertainty over Britain’s EU referendum caused? | Domestic issues are another factor; how much damage has the uncertainty over Britain’s EU referendum caused? |
| We find out at 9.30am BST. | We find out at 9.30am BST. |
| Also coming up today: | Also coming up today: |
| Stock markets are expected to fall back this morning, with the FTSE 100 called down 18 points. | Stock markets are expected to fall back this morning, with the FTSE 100 called down 18 points. |
| Tech stocks may be under pressure, after Apple posted its first drop in sales since 2003 - sending its shares down 8% in after-hours trading. | Tech stocks may be under pressure, after Apple posted its first drop in sales since 2003 - sending its shares down 8% in after-hours trading. |
| Related: Apple reports slowdown in iPhone sales and first revenue decline in 13 years | Related: Apple reports slowdown in iPhone sales and first revenue decline in 13 years |
| Rotten Apple: Stock plunges 8% on earnings, revenue miss https://t.co/9pCoAy4sun pic.twitter.com/lzcleHwsEo | Rotten Apple: Stock plunges 8% on earnings, revenue miss https://t.co/9pCoAy4sun pic.twitter.com/lzcleHwsEo |
| It’s a big day for UK corporate results, including Barclays bank, shopping chain Home Retail Group, and estate agent Foxtons. | It’s a big day for UK corporate results, including Barclays bank, shopping chain Home Retail Group, and estate agent Foxtons. |
| And the eurozone debt crisis is bubbling up again. | And the eurozone debt crisis is bubbling up again. |
| Overnight, there are reports that Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras is seeking an emergency summit to discuss his bailout deal after talks between creditors over reform measures floundered. | Overnight, there are reports that Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras is seeking an emergency summit to discuss his bailout deal after talks between creditors over reform measures floundered. |
| Here we go again: @tsipras_eu set to ask @eucopresident for an emergency summit on #Greece @MNIEurozone https://t.co/YtmuCWVUhW | Here we go again: @tsipras_eu set to ask @eucopresident for an emergency summit on #Greece @MNIEurozone https://t.co/YtmuCWVUhW |
| And with Spanish voters heading back to the polls in June, we could be facing another summer of European drama.... | And with Spanish voters heading back to the polls in June, we could be facing another summer of European drama.... |
| Related: Spain faces new elections in June after parties fail to form a government | Related: Spain faces new elections in June after parties fail to form a government |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 7.54am BST | at 7.54am BST |