This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/apr/27/uk-gdp-growth-figures-released-live-updates
The article has changed 15 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 7 | Version 8 |
|---|---|
| UK growth slows to 0.4%; Greek debt crisis flares up – live updates | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 2.05pm BST | |
| 14:05 | |
| Greek debt crisis is escalating again | |
| Buckle up, folks, the Greek debt crisis is roaring back over the horizon. | |
| Relations between Athens and its lenders have hit their worst level since last summer, when the 3rd Greek bailout deal was finally agreed. | |
| The two side simply can’t reach a deal over the various ‘emergency measures’ that would kick in if (or perhaps when) it misses the economic targets in its bailout. This is now causing a cash crunch in Greece, forcing the government to tap various state bodies for spare funds. | |
| And there’s serious chatter that we could be looking at fresh elections, or even another referendum, soon. | |
| So what’s happened today? | |
| So far.... Greece’s prime minister has proposed a meeting of EU leaders to discuss the crisis, but with little success. | |
| European Council president Donald Tusk has argued that finance ministers need to make more progress, and hold a eurogroup meeting very soon. | |
| We have to avoid situation of renewed uncertainty for Greece. We need date for Eurogroup meeting in not distant future. In days, not weeks | |
| Greece is refusing to accept extra austerity and blaming its creditors, as Reuters explains: | |
| Greece accused the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday of undermining efforts to broker an accord over its funding options, after talks on a review to unlock fresh bailout aid stalled. | |
| Athens would be willing to discuss the introduction of a mechanism to automatically cut spending, Government Spokeswoman Olga Gerovasili said. Greece could not go beyond that, she said. | |
| One of Greece’s familiar allies, Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, has offered prime minister Alexis Tsipras some support. | |
| He agrees that it’s wrong to push Athens to sign up to further cuts, on top of the measure already agreed. | |
| Juncker says contingency plan demanded by creditors to #Greece is both unreasonable & unconstitutional. #Greece crisis - Season 5, Episode 3 | |
| Financial traders are concerned, dumping Greek bonds and thus driving the yield on Greek debt higher into the danger zone: | |
| @Brenda_Kelly Game on. It's all kickin' off... #Greece pic.twitter.com/M047rDUWo5 | |
| Technical talks are still continuing between officials in Greece, in the hope of a breakthrough. But anyone who lived through last year’s drama will understand that progress could be limited.... | |
| Updated | |
| at 2.06pm BST | |
| 1.40pm BST | |
| 13:40 | |
| Here’s our news story on today’s UK slowdown: | |
| Related: UK GDP growth slows to 0.4% in first quarter of 2016 | |
| 1.18pm BST | 1.18pm BST |
| 13:18 | 13:18 |
| There are some interesting developments around BHS today. | There are some interesting developments around BHS today. |
| First up, Sky’s Mark Kleinman reports that the stricken high street retailer received a demand for £2.6m in unpaid VAT last week, shortly before it fell into administration. | First up, Sky’s Mark Kleinman reports that the stricken high street retailer received a demand for £2.6m in unpaid VAT last week, shortly before it fell into administration. |
| Another £10m was due by 30 June, to cover the sale of its Oxford Street store, perhaps explaining the timing of its collapse. | Another £10m was due by 30 June, to cover the sale of its Oxford Street store, perhaps explaining the timing of its collapse. |
| Revealed: Bhs hit by £2.6m VAT demand from taxman days before collapse - with a further £10m due by the end of June. https://t.co/t13iJUQ5Li | Revealed: Bhs hit by £2.6m VAT demand from taxman days before collapse - with a further £10m due by the end of June. https://t.co/t13iJUQ5Li |
| And more surprisingly, BHS’s most recent owner is apparently planning to buy the company back! | And more surprisingly, BHS’s most recent owner is apparently planning to buy the company back! |
| Former racing driver Dominic Chappell, whose reputation has been rather savaged in recent days, has told the Evening Standard that he is meeting potential backers in America right now. | Former racing driver Dominic Chappell, whose reputation has been rather savaged in recent days, has told the Evening Standard that he is meeting potential backers in America right now. |
| He’s hoping to come back with a “real deal” to save as many jobs as possible. | He’s hoping to come back with a “real deal” to save as many jobs as possible. |
| Good news? Probably not, given Chappell’s failure to keep the company on the road. A BHS spokesman has already said the idea is “pure fantasy”. | Good news? Probably not, given Chappell’s failure to keep the company on the road. A BHS spokesman has already said the idea is “pure fantasy”. |
| Dominic Chappell tells @standardcity "I want to buy back BHS" and defends the Swedish transaction https://t.co/JBXsOQWeXv | Dominic Chappell tells @standardcity "I want to buy back BHS" and defends the Swedish transaction https://t.co/JBXsOQWeXv |
| 12.59pm BST | 12.59pm BST |
| 12:59 | 12:59 |
| Care to guess the fastest growing area of the UK economy in the last 25 years? | Care to guess the fastest growing area of the UK economy in the last 25 years? |
| Royal Bank of Scotland have crunched the numbers, and report that management consulting and head office activities have swelled by 500% since 1990* | Royal Bank of Scotland have crunched the numbers, and report that management consulting and head office activities have swelled by 500% since 1990* |
| *- A vintage year, including the Italian World Cup, the end of Margaret Thatcher’s premiership, and the Stone Roses playing Spike Island. | *- A vintage year, including the Italian World Cup, the end of Margaret Thatcher’s premiership, and the Stone Roses playing Spike Island. |
| But while consultancy has been booming, manufacturing and mining has been steadily declining, they show: | But while consultancy has been booming, manufacturing and mining has been steadily declining, they show: |
| The changing shape of the UK economy. Here's the 20 fastest growing sectors since 1990. pic.twitter.com/fpOVu5t0iV | The changing shape of the UK economy. Here's the 20 fastest growing sectors since 1990. pic.twitter.com/fpOVu5t0iV |
| What we do a lot less of. Here's the 20 sectors of the UK economy with the biggest output falls since 1990. pic.twitter.com/4sZbGTToCn | What we do a lot less of. Here's the 20 sectors of the UK economy with the biggest output falls since 1990. pic.twitter.com/4sZbGTToCn |
| 12.20pm BST | 12.20pm BST |
| 12:20 | 12:20 |
| There’s little cheer in the City today about the latest UK growth figures. | There’s little cheer in the City today about the latest UK growth figures. |
| The blue-chip FTSE 100 has dropped by 12 points today to 6272 points, with supermarket chain Tesco shedding 4%. | The blue-chip FTSE 100 has dropped by 12 points today to 6272 points, with supermarket chain Tesco shedding 4%. |
| Mining shares, a handy bellwether for global economic confidence, are down around 2% too. | Mining shares, a handy bellwether for global economic confidence, are down around 2% too. |
| Joshua Mahony, Market Analyst at IG, says traders are nervous ahead of tonight’s meeting of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve. | Joshua Mahony, Market Analyst at IG, says traders are nervous ahead of tonight’s meeting of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve. |
| The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, and may sound cautious about growth prospects [we get US GDP data tomorrow] | The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, and may sound cautious about growth prospects [we get US GDP data tomorrow] |
| 11.54am BST | 11.54am BST |
| 11:54 | 11:54 |
| Economists: Can't just blame Brexit | Economists: Can't just blame Brexit |
| It’s politically convenient for George Osborne to blame June’s EU referendum for weakness in the UK economy. | It’s politically convenient for George Osborne to blame June’s EU referendum for weakness in the UK economy. |
| But economists are warning that the problems run deeper. | But economists are warning that the problems run deeper. |
| Scott Corfe of the Centre for Economics and Business Research says Osborne’s growth forecasts are simply too optimistic. Here’s why: | Scott Corfe of the Centre for Economics and Business Research says Osborne’s growth forecasts are simply too optimistic. Here’s why: |
| Firstly, the consumer economy is coming off the boil. Retail sales volumes have fallen for two consecutive months on the latest ONS data. Rising inflation later this year and into 2017 will take further steam out of the household-led recovery, as will signs of a softening in the labour market with some high profile companies announcing job cuts in recent weeks. | Firstly, the consumer economy is coming off the boil. Retail sales volumes have fallen for two consecutive months on the latest ONS data. Rising inflation later this year and into 2017 will take further steam out of the household-led recovery, as will signs of a softening in the labour market with some high profile companies announcing job cuts in recent weeks. |
| The UK´s international trade position is also a major concern. The current account data released last month showed a record high deficit of 7% of GDP at the end of last year - now greater than the fiscal deficit. Essentially, the country’s poor position on exports and overseas investments means that the UK is now borrowing a huge sum of money from the rest of the world each year. Unless financial markets respond to this and sterling sharply depreciates it is hard to see this being resolved anytime soon. | The UK´s international trade position is also a major concern. The current account data released last month showed a record high deficit of 7% of GDP at the end of last year - now greater than the fiscal deficit. Essentially, the country’s poor position on exports and overseas investments means that the UK is now borrowing a huge sum of money from the rest of the world each year. Unless financial markets respond to this and sterling sharply depreciates it is hard to see this being resolved anytime soon. |
| The introduction of the National Living Wage will also lead to job losses, he adds, while efforts to rein in the buy-to-let market may also harm consumer confidence, Corfe continues. | The introduction of the National Living Wage will also lead to job losses, he adds, while efforts to rein in the buy-to-let market may also harm consumer confidence, Corfe continues. |
| Ranko Berich, Head of Market Analysis at Monex Europe, agrees that Osborne must take the blame: | Ranko Berich, Head of Market Analysis at Monex Europe, agrees that Osborne must take the blame: |
| “Brexit anxiety could certainly be behind some of the slowdown in GDP growth, but the truth is the recovery remains lacklustre. Growth has failed to return to the pre-crisis trend on a sustained basis, and the government’s excessively tight fiscal policy is largely at fault. | “Brexit anxiety could certainly be behind some of the slowdown in GDP growth, but the truth is the recovery remains lacklustre. Growth has failed to return to the pre-crisis trend on a sustained basis, and the government’s excessively tight fiscal policy is largely at fault. |
| “On top of that, wage growth is anaemic and the labour market appears to be slowing down, meaning the macro outlook is as uncertain as it has been for years. | “On top of that, wage growth is anaemic and the labour market appears to be slowing down, meaning the macro outlook is as uncertain as it has been for years. |
| 11.33am BST | 11.33am BST |
| 11:33 | 11:33 |
| More gloom: | More gloom: |
| Amid the BHS and Tata Steel chaos, printing company Polestar has gone into administration with PwC. 1,500 jobs at risk | Amid the BHS and Tata Steel chaos, printing company Polestar has gone into administration with PwC. 1,500 jobs at risk |
| 11.20am BST | 11.20am BST |
| 11:20 | 11:20 |
| UK retail sales tumble | UK retail sales tumble |
| In another worrying sign, UK retail sales have fallen at the fastest rate in four years. | In another worrying sign, UK retail sales have fallen at the fastest rate in four years. |
| The CBI reports that the recent cold weather hurt demand for clothes, footwear and leather good this month. | The CBI reports that the recent cold weather hurt demand for clothes, footwear and leather good this month. |
| Sales also fell at department stores; bad news for the high street as it reels from the collapse of BHS and Austin Reed this week. | Sales also fell at department stores; bad news for the high street as it reels from the collapse of BHS and Austin Reed this week. |
| 22% of retailers interviewed by the CBI said that sales volumes were up in April compared to a year ago, whilst 36% said they were down, giving a rounded balance of -13%. That’s the weakest since January 2012. | 22% of retailers interviewed by the CBI said that sales volumes were up in April compared to a year ago, whilst 36% said they were down, giving a rounded balance of -13%. That’s the weakest since January 2012. |
| CBI director of economics, Rain Newton-Smith, said: | CBI director of economics, Rain Newton-Smith, said: |
| “Cold weather put a chill in sales of spring and summer ranges with a reported dip in retail sales in the year to April. | “Cold weather put a chill in sales of spring and summer ranges with a reported dip in retail sales in the year to April. |
| But with the near-term outlook for household spending holding up the sector expects a modest rise in sales next month. | But with the near-term outlook for household spending holding up the sector expects a modest rise in sales next month. |
| 11.03am BST | 11.03am BST |
| 11:03 | 11:03 |
| OECD chief Ángel Gurría is now warning reporters in London that the is “no economic upside” for the UK outside the EU. | OECD chief Ángel Gurría is now warning reporters in London that the is “no economic upside” for the UK outside the EU. |
| It’s “delusional” to claim that Brexit would give Britain a stronger trading position, Gurría adds, warning that some firms would quit the UK. | It’s “delusional” to claim that Brexit would give Britain a stronger trading position, Gurría adds, warning that some firms would quit the UK. |
| And in an alarming development, the 65-year old Gurría has revealed his full commitment to togetherness.... | And in an alarming development, the 65-year old Gurría has revealed his full commitment to togetherness.... |
| Some unexpected personal insight from Gurria 'my wife and I still take baths together 42 yrs on' ... A little too much info | Some unexpected personal insight from Gurria 'my wife and I still take baths together 42 yrs on' ... A little too much info |
| 10.51am BST | 10.51am BST |
| 10:51 | 10:51 |
| The OECD has now joined the chorus of international bodies arguing against Brexit, claiming it will hit us in the pocket. | The OECD has now joined the chorus of international bodies arguing against Brexit, claiming it will hit us in the pocket. |
| My colleague Larry Elliott reports: | My colleague Larry Elliott reports: |
| The west’s leading economics thinktank has warned that a British decision to leave the EU in this summer’s referendum would cost each household £2,200 by the end of a decade and continue to impose “a persistent and rising shock” on the UK in the following years. | The west’s leading economics thinktank has warned that a British decision to leave the EU in this summer’s referendum would cost each household £2,200 by the end of a decade and continue to impose “a persistent and rising shock” on the UK in the following years. |
| Adding its voice to negative assessments by the Treasury and the International Monetary Fund, the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said a so-called Brexit vote on 23 June would provide a major negative shock to Britain and have ripple effects on the rest of Europe. | Adding its voice to negative assessments by the Treasury and the International Monetary Fund, the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said a so-called Brexit vote on 23 June would provide a major negative shock to Britain and have ripple effects on the rest of Europe. |
| “In some respects, Brexit would be akin to a tax on GDP, imposing a persistent and rising cost on the economy that would not be incurred if the UK remained in the EU,” the OECD said. | “In some respects, Brexit would be akin to a tax on GDP, imposing a persistent and rising cost on the economy that would not be incurred if the UK remained in the EU,” the OECD said. |
| Full story: | Full story: |
| Related: Brexit would cost UK households £2,200 by 2020, says OECD | Related: Brexit would cost UK households £2,200 by 2020, says OECD |
| 10.35am BST | 10.35am BST |
| 10:35 | 10:35 |
| Britain’s economy has hit a ‘soft patch’, warns John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC. | Britain’s economy has hit a ‘soft patch’, warns John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC. |
| He blames: | He blames: |
| ...heightened uncertainties about the global economy at the start of the year, which hit the export-oriented manufacturing sector and also took the wind out of the sails of the key business and financial services sector, where growth slowed from 0.7% in the final quarter of 2015 to just 0.3% in the first quarter of 2016. | ...heightened uncertainties about the global economy at the start of the year, which hit the export-oriented manufacturing sector and also took the wind out of the sails of the key business and financial services sector, where growth slowed from 0.7% in the final quarter of 2015 to just 0.3% in the first quarter of 2016. |
| Brexit uncertainty isn’t helping. | Brexit uncertainty isn’t helping. |
| “Uncertainty about the EU referendum outcome may also have had an impact from late February onwards as it became clear there would be an early vote in June. This may have led to some delay in major investment decisions, as indicated by weak construction output in the first quarter. | “Uncertainty about the EU referendum outcome may also have had an impact from late February onwards as it became clear there would be an early vote in June. This may have led to some delay in major investment decisions, as indicated by weak construction output in the first quarter. |
| Hawksworth hopes, though, that growth will rebound later in the year: | Hawksworth hopes, though, that growth will rebound later in the year: |
| UK economy hit a soft patch in early 2016 but @PwC_UK chief economist John Hawksworth is cautiously optimistic: https://t.co/iu2bYpBJvL #GDP | UK economy hit a soft patch in early 2016 but @PwC_UK chief economist John Hawksworth is cautiously optimistic: https://t.co/iu2bYpBJvL #GDP |
| 10.26am BST | 10.26am BST |
| 10:26 | 10:26 |
| GDP: More detail | GDP: More detail |
| Today’s report shows that growth in the business services and finance slowed to +0.3%, from +0.7% in the last quarter of 2013. | Today’s report shows that growth in the business services and finance slowed to +0.3%, from +0.7% in the last quarter of 2013. |
| This is the main reason that total Services growth slowed from 0.8% to 0.6%, the ONS says. | This is the main reason that total Services growth slowed from 0.8% to 0.6%, the ONS says. |
| That backs up the theory that stock market turbulence hurt growth. It may also indicate nervousness about the EU referendum, though, as many City firms oppose Brexit. | That backs up the theory that stock market turbulence hurt growth. It may also indicate nervousness about the EU referendum, though, as many City firms oppose Brexit. |
| In the production sector, mining and quarrying output shrank by 2.2%, while manufacturing decreasing by 0.4% | In the production sector, mining and quarrying output shrank by 2.2%, while manufacturing decreasing by 0.4% |
| And Britain’s total economy is now 7.3% higher than before the financial crisis - making it the third best-performing G7 economy. | And Britain’s total economy is now 7.3% higher than before the financial crisis - making it the third best-performing G7 economy. |
| 10.09am BST | 10.09am BST |
| 10:09 | 10:09 |
| Ms Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF, questions whether Brexit is really to blame: | Ms Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF, questions whether Brexit is really to blame: |
| The effects of global financial market volatility, stuttering world trade growth and challenges on the high street feel like more obvious explanations for the slowdown. | The effects of global financial market volatility, stuttering world trade growth and challenges on the high street feel like more obvious explanations for the slowdown. |
| Still, referendum wobbles could make themselves felt in the coming months, highlighting the continuing downside risks for the economy this year” | Still, referendum wobbles could make themselves felt in the coming months, highlighting the continuing downside risks for the economy this year” |
| 10.01am BST | 10.01am BST |
| 10:01 | 10:01 |
| Here’s Chancellor George Osborne’s official response to the news that Britain’s economy is slowing.... | Here’s Chancellor George Osborne’s official response to the news that Britain’s economy is slowing.... |
| “It’s good news that Britain continues to grow, but there are warnings today that the threat of leaving the EU is weighing on our economy. | “It’s good news that Britain continues to grow, but there are warnings today that the threat of leaving the EU is weighing on our economy. |
| “Investments and building are being delayed, and another group of international experts, the OECD, confirms British families would be worse off if we leave the EU. | “Investments and building are being delayed, and another group of international experts, the OECD, confirms British families would be worse off if we leave the EU. |
| “Let’s not put the strong economy we’re building at risk, and vote to Remain on June 23.” | “Let’s not put the strong economy we’re building at risk, and vote to Remain on June 23.” |
| Reminder: the OECD report is due out at 10.30 BST, but the group has already called Brexit a ‘bad decision’ this morning. | Reminder: the OECD report is due out at 10.30 BST, but the group has already called Brexit a ‘bad decision’ this morning. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.04am BST | at 10.04am BST |
| 9.56am BST | 9.56am BST |
| 09:56 | 09:56 |
| ING: Brexit will hurt growth | ING: Brexit will hurt growth |
| James Knightley of ING Bank fears that growth is continuing to weaken in the run-up to June’s referendum. | James Knightley of ING Bank fears that growth is continuing to weaken in the run-up to June’s referendum. |
| He says: | He says: |
| We suspect that second-quarter GDP growth will be even weaker given the threat of Brexit is negatively impacting business sentiment, leading to a reduction in risks appetite regarding hiring and investment decisions. | We suspect that second-quarter GDP growth will be even weaker given the threat of Brexit is negatively impacting business sentiment, leading to a reduction in risks appetite regarding hiring and investment decisions. |
| Indeed, unemployment actually rose in the three months to February while consumer confidence is also coming under pressure. | Indeed, unemployment actually rose in the three months to February while consumer confidence is also coming under pressure. |
| 9.54am BST | 9.54am BST |
| 09:54 | 09:54 |
| City economist Alan Clarke, of Scotiabank, reckons we can’t blame Brexit fears for the economic slowdown, yet.... | City economist Alan Clarke, of Scotiabank, reckons we can’t blame Brexit fears for the economic slowdown, yet.... |
| Instead, he argues that the financial market turbulence at the start of 2016 hurt confidence. | Instead, he argues that the financial market turbulence at the start of 2016 hurt confidence. |
| That is not to say that Brexit uncertainty won’t have an impact on GDP growth – it will. | That is not to say that Brexit uncertainty won’t have an impact on GDP growth – it will. |
| However, this is likely to be visible via reduced investment and hiring and will show up in Q2 GDP. The first estimate of that will come out in late-July – a month after the actual vote. | However, this is likely to be visible via reduced investment and hiring and will show up in Q2 GDP. The first estimate of that will come out in late-July – a month after the actual vote. |
| For now, 0.4% q/q isn’t terrible – it could have been worse | For now, 0.4% q/q isn’t terrible – it could have been worse |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.58am BST | at 9.58am BST |
| 9.48am BST | 9.48am BST |
| 09:48 | 09:48 |
| Osborne blames Brexit fears | Osborne blames Brexit fears |
| As predicted, the chancellor has claimed that uncertainty over Britain’s EU membership is hurting the economy: | As predicted, the chancellor has claimed that uncertainty over Britain’s EU membership is hurting the economy: |
| GDP is up 0.4%. UK continues to grow but OECD warns today that threat of a vote to Leave the EU is weighing on economy | GDP is up 0.4%. UK continues to grow but OECD warns today that threat of a vote to Leave the EU is weighing on economy |