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UK construction growth hits three-year low as 'Brexit fog' hurts confidence - business live UK construction growth hits three-year low as 'Brexit fog' hurts confidence - business live
(35 minutes later)
12.49pm BST
12:49
London Stock Exchange shares fall 7% as ICE rules out bid
London Stock Exchange shares have dropped more than 7% after Intercontinental Exchange ruled out a bid, leaving the way clear for LSE’s proposed merger with Deutsche Börse.
New York stock exchange owner ICE said in March it was considering an offer for the LSE, but now says:
Following due diligence on the information made available, ICE determined there was insufficient engagement to confirm the potential market and shareholder benefits of a strategic combination.
So it has “no current intention” to make a bid which rules it out for six months unless it receives the consent of the Takeover Panel.
12.32pm BST
12:32
Greek manufacturing edged higher in April, but still showed a contraction for the third month in a row.
Markit’s manufacturing purchasing managers index came in at 49.7, up from 49 in March but still below the 50 level which signals expansion. Markit said:
The downturn in the manufacturing sector of Greece continued during April. Incoming new orders fell for a further month while outstanding business levels deteriorated. However, job creation was still evident in the sector and volumes of production stabilised after three months of contraction.
The downturn in the manufacturing sector of #Greece continued during April as #PMI posts 49.7 (49.0 in March) https://t.co/yEa6VeGwGd
But there were some encouraging signs, according to Markit economist Samuel Agass who said:
April survey data was mixed for Greek goods producers. On the one hand, the headline PMI remains below the crucial 50.0 no-change mark, thus signalling a further downturn in the manufacturing sector of Greece. Incoming new orders are still on the decline and outstanding business levels again deteriorated at a substantial pace, with a downturn in the construction sector hampering economic growth according to panellists.
However, production stabilised for the first time during 2016 and job creation was still evident, highlighting firms’ intentions to invigorate future output with increased manpower. Likewise, purchasing activity rose for the first time since August 2014, highlighting that there are some encouraging signs pointing to a revival in the manufacturing sector of Greece over the coming few months.
12.03pm BST12.03pm BST
12:0312:03
China has been forced to dip into its emergency pork reserves after seeing prices hit record highs.China has been forced to dip into its emergency pork reserves after seeing prices hit record highs.
With breeding sows in short supply, and domestic demand swelling, Beijing has decided to release 3.05 million kilograms of frozen pork reserves over the next month.With breeding sows in short supply, and domestic demand swelling, Beijing has decided to release 3.05 million kilograms of frozen pork reserves over the next month.
The FT explains how pork prices have been sizzling recently:The FT explains how pork prices have been sizzling recently:
Policymakers have good reason to want to keep pork prices under control: China produces and consumes more pork than any other country on Earth, and the meat factors heavily into the CPI basket used to calculate overall consumer inflation.Policymakers have good reason to want to keep pork prices under control: China produces and consumes more pork than any other country on Earth, and the meat factors heavily into the CPI basket used to calculate overall consumer inflation.
In March the official consumer price index rose 2.3 per cent year on year, with a rise of 28.4 per cent by pork prices during the period contributing 0.64 percentage points.In March the official consumer price index rose 2.3 per cent year on year, with a rise of 28.4 per cent by pork prices during the period contributing 0.64 percentage points.
The pork crisis could also be a consequence of China’s industrial revolution. There are now more wealthier middle-class consumers bringing home the bacon, and keen to eat expensive food, but fewer agricultural workers tending the piglets.The pork crisis could also be a consequence of China’s industrial revolution. There are now more wealthier middle-class consumers bringing home the bacon, and keen to eat expensive food, but fewer agricultural workers tending the piglets.
#China going whole hog: Beijing taps emergency pork reserves as prices hit record high https://t.co/4lV8iH4t8M pic.twitter.com/gbZQ5Oc3Vx#China going whole hog: Beijing taps emergency pork reserves as prices hit record high https://t.co/4lV8iH4t8M pic.twitter.com/gbZQ5Oc3Vx
11.40am BST11.40am BST
11:4011:40
Markets keep fallingMarkets keep falling
European stock markets have suffered another morning of hefty losses, as economic worries ripple through trading floors again.European stock markets have suffered another morning of hefty losses, as economic worries ripple through trading floors again.
The FTSE 100 has hit a new three-week low, down 76 points or 1.2% at 6109 points, while France and Germany are both down around 0.75%The FTSE 100 has hit a new three-week low, down 76 points or 1.2% at 6109 points, while France and Germany are both down around 0.75%
The slowdown in Britain’s construction sector, following a shock contraction in manufacturing yesterday, hasn’t helped the mood in the City.The slowdown in Britain’s construction sector, following a shock contraction in manufacturing yesterday, hasn’t helped the mood in the City.
Disappointing Chinese and US factory data released this week has also dampened optimism.Disappointing Chinese and US factory data released this week has also dampened optimism.
Global manuf PMI edged down to 50.1 in Apr. On past form, consistent with world GDP growth of just 2½%. Weak! pic.twitter.com/QRneLChVq6Global manuf PMI edged down to 50.1 in Apr. On past form, consistent with world GDP growth of just 2½%. Weak! pic.twitter.com/QRneLChVq6
There may also be a Trump effect. Wall Street is being called down, after the Donald all-but wrapped up the Republican nomination overnight.There may also be a Trump effect. Wall Street is being called down, after the Donald all-but wrapped up the Republican nomination overnight.
Trump selloff pic.twitter.com/G0v9RmloBRTrump selloff pic.twitter.com/G0v9RmloBR
Mihir Kapadia, CEO at Sun Global Investments, reckons investors are pretty uneasey today.Mihir Kapadia, CEO at Sun Global Investments, reckons investors are pretty uneasey today.
‘’A decline in US stocks last night has been followed by another weak day in Asian Indices today, as commodities and bonds are also selling off. Investors appear to remain generally uneasy about the state of the global economy, with the latest agitation coming from the Reserve Bank of Australia deciding on Tuesday to cut its benchmark rate to 1.75%, reflecting soft inflation and, like many others, general economic malaise. A contributing factor to Australia’s economic woes has been a drop in demand from a weary China, which has its own problems as its economy looks to be losing steam on the back of some weak manufacturing data.‘’A decline in US stocks last night has been followed by another weak day in Asian Indices today, as commodities and bonds are also selling off. Investors appear to remain generally uneasy about the state of the global economy, with the latest agitation coming from the Reserve Bank of Australia deciding on Tuesday to cut its benchmark rate to 1.75%, reflecting soft inflation and, like many others, general economic malaise. A contributing factor to Australia’s economic woes has been a drop in demand from a weary China, which has its own problems as its economy looks to be losing steam on the back of some weak manufacturing data.
Another country with weak manufacturing data is the UK – reports suggesting manufacturing activity contracted in April for the first time since March 2013. The slowdown in the oil industry is certainly hitting production, with firms also blaming soft domestic demand combined with a fall in foreign business.Another country with weak manufacturing data is the UK – reports suggesting manufacturing activity contracted in April for the first time since March 2013. The slowdown in the oil industry is certainly hitting production, with firms also blaming soft domestic demand combined with a fall in foreign business.
11.25am BST11.25am BST
11:2511:25
Here’s our news story on the construction slowdown:Here’s our news story on the construction slowdown:
Related: UK construction sector sees slowest expansion since mid-2013Related: UK construction sector sees slowest expansion since mid-2013
11.13am BST11.13am BST
11:1311:13
Last Friday, we got terribly excited by the news that the eurozone had grown by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2016, outpacing Britain and America.Last Friday, we got terribly excited by the news that the eurozone had grown by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2016, outpacing Britain and America.
But perhaps this was premature...But perhaps this was premature...
New data today shows that retail sales fell by 0.5% in March, which could suggest growth was less buoyant than hoped.New data today shows that retail sales fell by 0.5% in March, which could suggest growth was less buoyant than hoped.
Carsten Brzeski of ING fears the data could be revised down in a few weeks (when eurostat will have more data to play with)Carsten Brzeski of ING fears the data could be revised down in a few weeks (when eurostat will have more data to play with)
Weak Eurozone retail sales data in March are first warning that strong GDP growth in first quarter could become subject to downward revisionWeak Eurozone retail sales data in March are first warning that strong GDP growth in first quarter could become subject to downward revision
10.53am BST10.53am BST
10:5310:53
The BBC’s Kamal Ahmed and Sam Tombs of Pantheon Economics are both concerned by the slowdown in UK construction growth.The BBC’s Kamal Ahmed and Sam Tombs of Pantheon Economics are both concerned by the slowdown in UK construction growth.
More evidence of weakening UK economy - construction PMI weakest for three years. "New order volumes stagnating" says the Market/CIPS surveyMore evidence of weakening UK economy - construction PMI weakest for three years. "New order volumes stagnating" says the Market/CIPS survey
Another UK survey; another multi-year low. April #Construction PMI weakest since Jun 2013, pointing to ↓output: pic.twitter.com/Jthlrvq9AHAnother UK survey; another multi-year low. April #Construction PMI weakest since Jun 2013, pointing to ↓output: pic.twitter.com/Jthlrvq9AH
10.37am BST10.37am BST
10:3710:37
This drop in construction growth comes as Barclays unleashes a no-deposit mortgage on the market.This drop in construction growth comes as Barclays unleashes a no-deposit mortgage on the market.
Technically, a parent does need to provide a 10% deposit, but that will be returned - with interest - if their little darling manages to keep up the monthly payments.Technically, a parent does need to provide a 10% deposit, but that will be returned - with interest - if their little darling manages to keep up the monthly payments.
Related: Barclays offers 0% deposit mortgage to home buyersRelated: Barclays offers 0% deposit mortgage to home buyers
So for the first time since the collapse of Northern Rock, a major high-street lender is effectively offering to lend the full value of a property. This could be a worrying moment...So for the first time since the collapse of Northern Rock, a major high-street lender is effectively offering to lend the full value of a property. This could be a worrying moment...
Nothing to see here... pic.twitter.com/TkfnXfz9ndNothing to see here... pic.twitter.com/TkfnXfz9nd
However, before the credit crunch of 2007, some riskier UK banks would actually lend you 125% of a property’s value. We’re not quite at panic levels yet...However, before the credit crunch of 2007, some riskier UK banks would actually lend you 125% of a property’s value. We’re not quite at panic levels yet...
UpdatedUpdated
at 10.49am BSTat 10.49am BST
9.54am BST9.54am BST
09:5409:54
David Noble of the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply also blames Brexit fears for the slump in construction sector growth.David Noble of the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply also blames Brexit fears for the slump in construction sector growth.
“Fears over weaker UK and global economic growth dealt a blow to confidence in the construction sector, leading to delays in new spending commitments. The prospect of the EU referendum and its outcome in June are likely to add to uncertainty too, with many construction firms preferring to wait and see what happens before making any decisions.“Fears over weaker UK and global economic growth dealt a blow to confidence in the construction sector, leading to delays in new spending commitments. The prospect of the EU referendum and its outcome in June are likely to add to uncertainty too, with many construction firms preferring to wait and see what happens before making any decisions.
“Construction companies adopted a more cautious approach to purchasing and hiring, leading to a rise in sub-contractor usage to tide them over until the outlook becomes clearer. The slowdown in new order growth in April suggests that though spring may be in the air, sunnier times may still be a way off for the construction sector, at least for the time being.”“Construction companies adopted a more cautious approach to purchasing and hiring, leading to a rise in sub-contractor usage to tide them over until the outlook becomes clearer. The slowdown in new order growth in April suggests that though spring may be in the air, sunnier times may still be a way off for the construction sector, at least for the time being.”
9.39am BST9.39am BST
09:3909:39
UK construction sector growth hits three-year lowUK construction sector growth hits three-year low
Breaking: Growth across Britain’s construction sector has slowed to a near three-year low.Breaking: Growth across Britain’s construction sector has slowed to a near three-year low.
Fears over Britain’s EU referendum, and weakness in housebuilding are to blame -- as concerns about the strength of the UK recovery grow.Fears over Britain’s EU referendum, and weakness in housebuilding are to blame -- as concerns about the strength of the UK recovery grow.
Data firm Markit reports that its construction PMI, which measures activity across hundreds of building firms, has fallen from 54.2 in March to 52.0 in April.Data firm Markit reports that its construction PMI, which measures activity across hundreds of building firms, has fallen from 54.2 in March to 52.0 in April.
That’s the slowest since June 2013.That’s the slowest since June 2013.
Companies reported that new orders had stagnated, as the clients suspended spending.Companies reported that new orders had stagnated, as the clients suspended spending.
With “heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook”, some customers aren’t prepared to commit to new projects. Britain’s EU vote, on June 23rd, is a keyWith “heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook”, some customers aren’t prepared to commit to new projects. Britain’s EU vote, on June 23rd, is a key
Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, warns that the UK construction sector appears to be struggling:Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, warns that the UK construction sector appears to be struggling:
“UK construction firms reported their worst month for almost three years in April, meaning that the first quarter slowdown is unlikely to prove temporary.“UK construction firms reported their worst month for almost three years in April, meaning that the first quarter slowdown is unlikely to prove temporary.
“Stalling new order volumes not only set the scene for further weakness ahead, but are already weighing on staff hiring and input buying across the construction sector.“Stalling new order volumes not only set the scene for further weakness ahead, but are already weighing on staff hiring and input buying across the construction sector.
“Softer growth forecasts for the UK economy alongside uncertainty ahead of the EU referendum appear to have provided reasons for clients to delay major spending decisions until the fog has lifted.“Softer growth forecasts for the UK economy alongside uncertainty ahead of the EU referendum appear to have provided reasons for clients to delay major spending decisions until the fog has lifted.
“An additional factor dragging on construction sector performance is the lack of momentum in residential building. April’s survey highlighted one of the weakest rises in housing activity since early-2013, suggesting that greater caution in this sub-sector is adding to the sluggish growth conditions seen across the wider construction industry.”“An additional factor dragging on construction sector performance is the lack of momentum in residential building. April’s survey highlighted one of the weakest rises in housing activity since early-2013, suggesting that greater caution in this sub-sector is adding to the sluggish growth conditions seen across the wider construction industry.”
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.48am BSTat 9.48am BST
9.32am BST
09:32
Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight agrees that the eurozone PMIs are ‘lacklustre’, but remains hopeful that growth will pick up.
While they have firmed recently, oil and commodity prices and the euro are still at levels that are supportive to Eurozone growth. Major ECB stimulus that was enhanced in March will increasingly kick in over the coming months, while the fiscal stance across the Eurozone is gradually becoming more growth orientated with increasing fiscal stimulative measures being introduced in a number of countries (along with increased public spending to deal with the influx of migrants).
Meanwhile, generally improved job markets across the Eurozone are supportive to consumer spending along with the boost to purchasing power coming from negligible deflation/inflation.
9.14am BST
09:14
Eurozone's 'tepid" recovery continues
Europe’s private sector continued to recover in April, although the revival is less than spectacular.
That’s according to data firm Markit, whose composite PMI (which measures private sector growth) has come in at 53.0 in April. That’s only a smidgen below March’s 53.1, and means 34 months of unbroken growth.
The eurozone’s Big Four economies all expanded, although Germany appears to be losing some momentum.
Companies reported taking on more staff (although in France the increase was marginal).
They were also forced to cut prices again to stimulate sales, suggesting the eurozone still face a deflation threat despite the European Central Bank’s stimulus measures.
Markit’s Chris Williamson explains:
“The final PMI data confirm the earlier flash estimate that the eurozone economy grew at a steady but unspectacular annual rate of 1.5% at the start of the second quarter. Prices charged also continued to fall, indicating that growth is being partly fuelled by price discounting.
“However, while still tepid, the sustained eurozone growth contrasts with slowdowns in the US and UK, suggesting the ECB’s more aggressive stimulus is helping to drive a steady recovery. The survey numbers also indicate that domestic demand within the eurozone is picking up which, alongside the weaker currency, is helping to offset sluggish external demand.
So it’s not all bad.
Updated
at 9.30am BST
8.59am BST
08:59
German service sector growth has slowed; its PMI has dipped to 54.5, from 55.1in March.
That still shows expansion, but the slowest rate since last winter.
#Germany’s service sector continued to grow at a steady pace at start of Q2, despite index dropping to 5-month low https://t.co/DRjgl6ONkk
Updated
at 8.59am BST
8.52am BST
08:52
France’s service sector has clawed its way back to growth, with the PMI rising to 50.6 from 49.9 in March.
French Service PMI (Apr F) 50.6 versus 50.8 flash, previous 49.9
8.46am BST
08:46
Spanish service sector growth continues.
The first eurozone service sector data is out, and it shows that Spanish companies continued to grow last month.
The Spanish Services PMI, which tracks activity across the sector, has dipped slightly to 55.1, from 55.3. That’s comfortably over the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction.
It suggests the prospect of another election (called for late June) hasn’t hit the economy.
Latest #PMI data suggest that economic growth in #Spain remained marked at start of Q2 https://t.co/DD8HaCYAVb pic.twitter.com/TUc4IzCXZa
Spanish PMIs - Political crisis? What political crisis?
Updated
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8.43am BST
08:43
Mining shares are being hit this morning, pulling the London stock market into the red.
Worries over the global economy are being blamed as BHP Billiton sheds 5% and Anglo American loses 3%.
BHP is also being hit because Brazilian prosecutors have just filed a $58bn civil lawsuit over the Bento Rodrigues dam disaster which claimed 19 lives last year.
Mining shares also fell sharply yesterday, after disappointing factory data from China and the UK suggested economy demand was slowing.
FXTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga warns that:
The elevated concerns over the health of the global economy complimented with the incessant declines in oil prices have soured investor risk appetite, consequently leaving the FTSE100 vulnerable to further losses.
8.21am BST
08:21
Sainsbury posts falling sales and profits
The ongoing supermarket price wars have hit profits at supermarket chain J Sainsbury’s.
The company has posted a 14% drop in annual pretax profits, on the back of a 1.1% drop in sales. That’s better than some analysts had predicted.
However, CEO Mike Coupe has warned that the market will remain competitive “for the foreseeable future”, sending shares down 1.5% in early trading.
Related: Sainsbury's sales and profits fall amid price cuts
8.12am BST
08:12
Next’s warning on sales and profits could spell bad news for other retailers too.
James McGregor, partner at Retail Remedy retail consultants, explains:
It was inevitable that the weather would feature in some way in Next’s trading update and we have not been disappointed. If Next have been challenged by the unseasonal weather this season, then we can assume that the majority of fashion retailers are really suffering.....
To lower Next’s full price sales guidance range to -3.5%, indicates a sense of nervousness. Ever cautious, we are not surprised to hear Lord Wolfson warn of difficult trading ahead. His caution is understandable though, poor sell throughs are costly. The weather is finally going the right way but the customer might yet hold off buying her beachwear.
7.51am BST
07:51
More gloom from Next
Retail group Next has got the morning off to a bad start, by cutting its sales guidance for the second time in two months.
Once again, bad weather get some of the blame; Next says that recent cold weather in March and April reduced demand for clothing. That follows the unusually mild winter, which hit sales of warm coats.
But it also warned that demand for clothing may simply be weaker, as consumers cut back.
My colleague Sean Farrell has the details:
Though sales have improved in the past few days as weather has improved, the company said demand for clothes could stay weak.
In the three months to 2 May Next’s total sales fell by 0.2% and full-price sales dropped 0.9%, at the low end of full-year sales guidance of -1% to 4%.
As a result, Next cut its annual guidance for full-price sales to between -3.5% and +3.5%. It slashed its previous guidance in March when Lord Wolfson, the chief executive, predicted this year would be the most difficult since the financial crisis.
Next also cut its guidance for annual profit. Pre-tax profit could fall as much as 8.9% to £748m with a best estimate of profit rising 3.7% to £852m.
Related: Next warns on sales and profits
Updated
at 8.07am BST
7.32am BST
07:32
The agenda: Eurozone service sector PMIs
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
After yesterday’s jitteriness, traders in Europe are pretty cautious as they wait for a flurry of economic news.
Today we find out how the eurozone’s service sector performed last month. It may show that European consumers kept spending last month, despite signs of weakness in the global economy.
Michael Hewson of CMC Markets has the predictions:
The Spanish economy has been notable for its outperformance in recent months despite continuing high levels of unemployment and today’s latest numbers are expected to come in at 55.1, while Germany is expected to remain unchanged at 54.6.
On the downside the French numbers have consistently underperformed, though we are expecting to see a pick up to 50.8 as the French services sector strives to shake off the after effects of the November attacks in Paris.
Those figures come between 8am and 9am BST.
We then find out how Britain’s construction industry fared last month; will builders feel any impact from Brexit uncertainty?
And there’s plenty of company results to wade through; brewing giant Anheuser-Busch InBev, high street retailer Next, supermarket chain J Sainsbury, oil group Shell and defence group BAE are all updating the City.
In the meantime, European markets are likely to open sluggishly as investors worry about the global economic slowdown, yesterday’s fall in the value of the US dollar, and political instability rising in Europe. And that’s before anyone mentions Donald Trump....
Our European opening calls:$FTSE 6182 down 4$DAX 9921 down 6$CAC 4361 down 11$IBEX 8745 down 20$MIB 17950 down 16
Updated
at 7.47am BST