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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/may/04/stockmarkets-eurozone-services-next-sainsbury-business-live
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| Markes nervous amid disappointing UK construction and US jobs figures - live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 4.15pm BST | 4.15pm BST |
| 16:15 | 16:15 |
| The mixed picture from the day’s US economic figures does not mean a June rate rise is completely off the table. Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said: | The mixed picture from the day’s US economic figures does not mean a June rate rise is completely off the table. Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, said: |
| Today’s abundance of US data has made for a difficult trading environment, with contrasting data points providing mixed expectations for monetary policy implications. The overwhelmingly positive release of services and composite PMI readings helped paint an encouraging picture for US business, with improved factory orders and trade balance helping raise rate hike expectations for the June meeting. | Today’s abundance of US data has made for a difficult trading environment, with contrasting data points providing mixed expectations for monetary policy implications. The overwhelmingly positive release of services and composite PMI readings helped paint an encouraging picture for US business, with improved factory orders and trade balance helping raise rate hike expectations for the June meeting. |
| However, the picture has been muddled by a shockingly poor April ADP non-farm payrolls number, which at 156,000 fell to the lowest level in over two years. The ADP reading is the only figure of the day that has a second bite at the cherry and if Friday’s headline figure confounds today’s ADP weakness, we are likely to see a significant rise in June rate hike expectations. | However, the picture has been muddled by a shockingly poor April ADP non-farm payrolls number, which at 156,000 fell to the lowest level in over two years. The ADP reading is the only figure of the day that has a second bite at the cherry and if Friday’s headline figure confounds today’s ADP weakness, we are likely to see a significant rise in June rate hike expectations. |
| The resurgence of the US dollar this week has sent shockwaves throughout the foreign exchange markets, as traders begin to realise that perhaps a 15-month low in the dollar index makes little sense just six weeks away from an increasingly ‘live’ [Federal Reserve] meeting. While markets are currently pricing in just a 12% chance of a June hike, the reality is likely to be higher, given the hawkish tone of recent Fed member comments. | The resurgence of the US dollar this week has sent shockwaves throughout the foreign exchange markets, as traders begin to realise that perhaps a 15-month low in the dollar index makes little sense just six weeks away from an increasingly ‘live’ [Federal Reserve] meeting. While markets are currently pricing in just a 12% chance of a June hike, the reality is likely to be higher, given the hawkish tone of recent Fed member comments. |
| 3.42pm BST | 3.42pm BST |
| 15:42 | 15:42 |
| US crude stocks rose by more than expected last week, according to the latest figures from the Energy Information Administration. | US crude stocks rose by more than expected last week, according to the latest figures from the Energy Information Administration. |
| Inventories climbed by 2.8m barrels compared to forecasts of a 750,000 increase. Crude prices have come off their best levels following the figures, but even so, Brent is still up 0.8% at $45.33 a barrel. Earlier in the day it had climbed as high as $46.01. | Inventories climbed by 2.8m barrels compared to forecasts of a 750,000 increase. Crude prices have come off their best levels following the figures, but even so, Brent is still up 0.8% at $45.33 a barrel. Earlier in the day it had climbed as high as $46.01. |
| EIA Weekly Oil Inventories (Apr 29)Crude +2.78 Mln v +0.75 Mln exp, prev +2.00 MlnCushing +0.24 Mln v -0.25 Mln exp, prev +1.75 Mln | EIA Weekly Oil Inventories (Apr 29)Crude +2.78 Mln v +0.75 Mln exp, prev +2.00 MlnCushing +0.24 Mln v -0.25 Mln exp, prev +1.75 Mln |
| Gasoline +0.54 Mln v -0.25 Mln exp, prev +1.61 MlnDistillate -1.26 Mln v +0.40 Mln exp, prev -1.70 Mln | Gasoline +0.54 Mln v -0.25 Mln exp, prev +1.61 MlnDistillate -1.26 Mln v +0.40 Mln exp, prev -1.70 Mln |
| 3.30pm BST | 3.30pm BST |
| 15:30 | 15:30 |
| And here’s the agenda for Monday’s Eurogroup meeting: | And here’s the agenda for Monday’s Eurogroup meeting: |
| The Eurogroup will hold an extraordinary meeting to discuss the state of play of the macroeconomic adjustment programme for Greece. | The Eurogroup will hold an extraordinary meeting to discuss the state of play of the macroeconomic adjustment programme for Greece. |
| Discussions will cover a comprehensive package of policy reforms as well as the sustainability of Greece’s public debt. Both elements need to be in place in order to finalise the programme’s first review and unlock further financial assistance to Greece. | Discussions will cover a comprehensive package of policy reforms as well as the sustainability of Greece’s public debt. Both elements need to be in place in order to finalise the programme’s first review and unlock further financial assistance to Greece. |
| 3.26pm BST | 3.26pm BST |
| 15:26 | 15:26 |
| Over in Greece, and efforts are continuing to reach a deal between the country and its creditors ahead of a proposed Eurogroup meeting next week. Greek newspaper Kathimerini reports: | Over in Greece, and efforts are continuing to reach a deal between the country and its creditors ahead of a proposed Eurogroup meeting next week. Greek newspaper Kathimerini reports: |
| Deputy eurozone finance ministers, known as the Euro Working Group (EWG), will hold a conference call on Wednesday aimed at bridging differences between the government in Athens and foreign creditors ahead of a crucial eurogroup meeting on Monday, May 9. | Deputy eurozone finance ministers, known as the Euro Working Group (EWG), will hold a conference call on Wednesday aimed at bridging differences between the government in Athens and foreign creditors ahead of a crucial eurogroup meeting on Monday, May 9. |
| The teleconference is expected to focus on an additional 3.6 billion euros’ worth of contingency measures that Greece is being asked to implement should it miss budget targets in 2018. | The teleconference is expected to focus on an additional 3.6 billion euros’ worth of contingency measures that Greece is being asked to implement should it miss budget targets in 2018. |
| The extra measures have been demanded by the International Monetary Fund, which deems that the 5.4 billion euros’ worth of measures set out in Greece’s third international bailout are inadequate for it to achieve a budget surplus worth 3.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2018. | The extra measures have been demanded by the International Monetary Fund, which deems that the 5.4 billion euros’ worth of measures set out in Greece’s third international bailout are inadequate for it to achieve a budget surplus worth 3.5 percent of gross domestic product in 2018. |
| Greek officials have instead proposed the activation of an automatic mechanism for cutting state spending in the event that the government misses budget targets. | Greek officials have instead proposed the activation of an automatic mechanism for cutting state spending in the event that the government misses budget targets. |
| IMF officials are also expected to take part in Wednesday’s teleconference. Greece will be represented by Alternate Finance Minister Giorgos Houliarakis. | IMF officials are also expected to take part in Wednesday’s teleconference. Greece will be represented by Alternate Finance Minister Giorgos Houliarakis. |
| 3.09pm BST | 3.09pm BST |
| 15:09 | 15:09 |
| And here are some of the comments made by the survey’s respondents: | And here are some of the comments made by the survey’s respondents: |
| 3.08pm BST | 3.08pm BST |
| 15:08 | 15:08 |
| Here are the details of the ISM survey: | Here are the details of the ISM survey: |
| 3.04pm BST | 3.04pm BST |
| 15:04 | 15:04 |
| US service sector grows faster than expected | US service sector grows faster than expected |
| And here’s is confirmation of a stronger US services sector. | And here’s is confirmation of a stronger US services sector. |
| The ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index has climbed from 54.5 in March to 55.7 last month, better than the forecast level of 54.7. This is the highest level since December. | The ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index has climbed from 54.5 in March to 55.7 last month, better than the forecast level of 54.7. This is the highest level since December. |
| The new orders index rose to 59.9 in April, up from 56.7 the previous month. | The new orders index rose to 59.9 in April, up from 56.7 the previous month. |
| But business activity slowed, with the index dipping from 59.8 in March to 58.8. | But business activity slowed, with the index dipping from 59.8 in March to 58.8. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.06pm BST | at 3.06pm BST |
| 2.57pm BST | 2.57pm BST |
| 14:57 | 14:57 |
| In line with ADP report, Markit PMI services employment index suggests #US jobs growth slowed in April. pic.twitter.com/Rec3hVi5GE | In line with ADP report, Markit PMI services employment index suggests #US jobs growth slowed in April. pic.twitter.com/Rec3hVi5GE |
| 2.54pm BST | 2.54pm BST |
| 14:54 | 14:54 |
| The first set of US services data is out and is slightly better than expected. | The first set of US services data is out and is slightly better than expected. |
| The Markit services final PMI has come in at 52.8 for April, up from the initial reading of 52.1 and March’s level of 51.3. | The Markit services final PMI has come in at 52.8 for April, up from the initial reading of 52.1 and March’s level of 51.3. |
| The final composite reading - both services and manufacturing - was 52.4, up from an initial 51.7 and 51.3 in March. | The final composite reading - both services and manufacturing - was 52.4, up from an initial 51.7 and 51.3 in March. |
| Still to come are the figures from ISM’s services survey. | Still to come are the figures from ISM’s services survey. |
| 2.51pm BST | 2.51pm BST |
| 14:51 | 14:51 |
| Wall Street opens lower | Wall Street opens lower |
| Not surprisingly US markets are once more following their global counterparts lower. | Not surprisingly US markets are once more following their global counterparts lower. |
| The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 106 points or 0.6%, following the weaker than expected ADP jobs data. The disappointing figures added to the general unease about a whole spate of releases pointing to a slowdown in the global economy. | The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 106 points or 0.6%, following the weaker than expected ADP jobs data. The disappointing figures added to the general unease about a whole spate of releases pointing to a slowdown in the global economy. |
| The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both opened around 0.5% lower. | The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both opened around 0.5% lower. |
| Meanwhile the FTSE 100 has fallen 0.99% - albeit off its worst levels - while Germany’s Dax is down 0.74% and France’s Cac is off 0.77%. | Meanwhile the FTSE 100 has fallen 0.99% - albeit off its worst levels - while Germany’s Dax is down 0.74% and France’s Cac is off 0.77%. |
| 1.41pm BST | 1.41pm BST |
| 13:41 | 13:41 |
| More from the US. | More from the US. |
| The country’s trade deficit fell by more than expected in March, down 13.9% to $40.4bn, as imports fell to their lowest level since 2010. | The country’s trade deficit fell by more than expected in March, down 13.9% to $40.4bn, as imports fell to their lowest level since 2010. |
| Meanwhile US productivity dropped at a 1% annual rate in the first quarter, the second quarterly decline. Labour costs rose by 4.1%, the quickest pace since the fourth quarter of 2014. | Meanwhile US productivity dropped at a 1% annual rate in the first quarter, the second quarterly decline. Labour costs rose by 4.1%, the quickest pace since the fourth quarter of 2014. |
| US Non-Farm Productivity (Q1 P) -1.0% v -1.3% exp, prev -2.2% rev -1.7% | Unit Labor Costs (Q1 P) +4.1% v +3.3% exp, prev +3.3% rev +2.7% | US Non-Farm Productivity (Q1 P) -1.0% v -1.3% exp, prev -2.2% rev -1.7% | Unit Labor Costs (Q1 P) +4.1% v +3.3% exp, prev +3.3% rev +2.7% |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.44pm BST | at 1.44pm BST |
| 1.40pm BST | 1.40pm BST |
| 13:40 | 13:40 |
| Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics which helps compile the ADP jobs data, said: | Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics which helps compile the ADP jobs data, said: |
| The job market appears to have stumbled in April. Job growth noticeably slowed, with some weakness across most sectors. One month does not make a trend, but this bears close watching as the financial market turmoil earlier in the year may have done some damage to business hiring. | The job market appears to have stumbled in April. Job growth noticeably slowed, with some weakness across most sectors. One month does not make a trend, but this bears close watching as the financial market turmoil earlier in the year may have done some damage to business hiring. |
| 1.26pm BST | 1.26pm BST |
| 13:26 | 13:26 |
| The poor ADP jobs data adds to the feeling the US Federal Reserve may not be in a rush to raise interest rates but the report is worrying for the US economy, says David Morrison, senior market strategist at Spreadco. He said: | The poor ADP jobs data adds to the feeling the US Federal Reserve may not be in a rush to raise interest rates but the report is worrying for the US economy, says David Morrison, senior market strategist at Spreadco. He said: |
| The US dollar fell sharply in the immediate aftermath of the release as poor jobs data reduces the likelihood of a rate hike next month from the US Fed. | The US dollar fell sharply in the immediate aftermath of the release as poor jobs data reduces the likelihood of a rate hike next month from the US Fed. |
| Investors see the ADP data as a “heads-up” ahead of the official Non-Farm Payroll report which is due out this Friday. It certainly is effective in measuring the overall trend in the data, but it can be patchy on a month-by-month basis. This is because the government’s number tends to be considerably more volatile, and of course it is this volatility that traders look for and react to. So the fact that today’s release was so far away from trend will have traders scratching their heads. It may be positive for risk assets for the Fed to hold off from hiking rates, but it sends a grim message about the US economy. | Investors see the ADP data as a “heads-up” ahead of the official Non-Farm Payroll report which is due out this Friday. It certainly is effective in measuring the overall trend in the data, but it can be patchy on a month-by-month basis. This is because the government’s number tends to be considerably more volatile, and of course it is this volatility that traders look for and react to. So the fact that today’s release was so far away from trend will have traders scratching their heads. It may be positive for risk assets for the Fed to hold off from hiking rates, but it sends a grim message about the US economy. |
| 1.19pm BST | 1.19pm BST |
| 13:19 | 13:19 |
| USA ADP employment report announcement - Actual: 156.0k, Expected: 196k pic.twitter.com/WdZUAMhyvb | USA ADP employment report announcement - Actual: 156.0k, Expected: 196k pic.twitter.com/WdZUAMhyvb |
| 1.16pm BST | 1.16pm BST |
| 13:16 | 13:16 |
| US jobs figures lower than expected | US jobs figures lower than expected |
| Ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payroll numbers, the monthly survey of private sector jobs from ADP came in much lower than expected. | Ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payroll numbers, the monthly survey of private sector jobs from ADP came in much lower than expected. |
| ADP said US employment increased by 156,000 private sector jobs in April, compared to 194,000 last month and expectations of a rise of between 195,000 and 200,000 this time round. | ADP said US employment increased by 156,000 private sector jobs in April, compared to 194,000 last month and expectations of a rise of between 195,000 and 200,000 this time round. |
| Last month’s figure was revised down from the initial estimate of 200,000. | Last month’s figure was revised down from the initial estimate of 200,000. |
| US ADP Employment Change (Apr) +156K versus +195K expected, previous +200K revised +194K | US ADP Employment Change (Apr) +156K versus +195K expected, previous +200K revised +194K |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.41pm BST | at 1.41pm BST |