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ONS suggests UK has had spike in short-term migration ONS suggests UK has had spike in short-term migration
(35 minutes later)
A big gap between official immigration figures and the number of EU migrants registering for National Insurance numbers has been put down to an increase in short-term immigration.A big gap between official immigration figures and the number of EU migrants registering for National Insurance numbers has been put down to an increase in short-term immigration.
An analysis by the Office for National Statistics suggests large numbers of people have come to the UK for a short period of time in recent years.An analysis by the Office for National Statistics suggests large numbers of people have come to the UK for a short period of time in recent years.
They were not picked up by the official immigration statistics. These people are not included in the headline net migration statistics.
These only measure people who say they will be in the UK for a year or more. These only include people who say they will be in the UK for a year or more.
Voters will decide on 23 June whether the UK should remain in the EU or leave, with immigration a key battleground in the campaign.Voters will decide on 23 June whether the UK should remain in the EU or leave, with immigration a key battleground in the campaign.
Those campaigning to leave the EU argue the UK cannot control levels of migration from Europe - which have risen sharply in the past decade - while remaining a member and abiding by the EU's rules on the free movement of people.Those campaigning to leave the EU argue the UK cannot control levels of migration from Europe - which have risen sharply in the past decade - while remaining a member and abiding by the EU's rules on the free movement of people.
The Office for National Statistics analysis examines available data on the difference between the registration of National Insurance numbers to adult overseas nationals, and estimates of long-term international migration derived from its International Passenger Survey.The Office for National Statistics analysis examines available data on the difference between the registration of National Insurance numbers to adult overseas nationals, and estimates of long-term international migration derived from its International Passenger Survey.
'Relatives and friends''Relatives and friends'
The most recent ONS figures suggest that 257,000 EU migrants migrated to the UK between September 2014 and September 2015.The most recent ONS figures suggest that 257,000 EU migrants migrated to the UK between September 2014 and September 2015.
But other figures for the same period show 630,000 National Insurance numbers were allocated to EU nationals, up 7% on the year before. Of these, 209,000 were from Bulgaria and Romania.But other figures for the same period show 630,000 National Insurance numbers were allocated to EU nationals, up 7% on the year before. Of these, 209,000 were from Bulgaria and Romania.
Leave campaigners argue that this shows the official figures on inward migration from the EU vastly underestimate the true numbers.Leave campaigners argue that this shows the official figures on inward migration from the EU vastly underestimate the true numbers.
But the government and the Office for National Statistics both insist that National Insurance numbers are not a good way of measuring immigration because the figures include people who might come to the UK for a few weeks or months.But the government and the Office for National Statistics both insist that National Insurance numbers are not a good way of measuring immigration because the figures include people who might come to the UK for a few weeks or months.
They say the International Passenger Survey, a questionnaire given to people at random as they arrive at air and sea ports, remains the best way of estimating immigration.They say the International Passenger Survey, a questionnaire given to people at random as they arrive at air and sea ports, remains the best way of estimating immigration.
There has been a sizeable gap between the passenger survey estimates and the National Insurance figures since 2006, according to the ONS analysis.There has been a sizeable gap between the passenger survey estimates and the National Insurance figures since 2006, according to the ONS analysis.
"This difference is likely to reflect visitors who may be in the country for less than one month who may need a NI number to work or use the opportunity to apply for one," it says."This difference is likely to reflect visitors who may be in the country for less than one month who may need a NI number to work or use the opportunity to apply for one," it says.
"It may also reflect those short-term migrants that come to accompany and join relatives and friends.""It may also reflect those short-term migrants that come to accompany and join relatives and friends."
The number of National Insurance numbers issued to Bulgarians and Romanians has jumped from below 50,000 to more than 200,000 since work restrictions on people from those countries were lifted in 2014.The number of National Insurance numbers issued to Bulgarians and Romanians has jumped from below 50,000 to more than 200,000 since work restrictions on people from those countries were lifted in 2014.
The ONS said it did not have enough data to understand whether this was being driven by short-term migration. The "actual" short term migration figure from the passenger survey for this period will not be published until 2017.The ONS said it did not have enough data to understand whether this was being driven by short-term migration. The "actual" short term migration figure from the passenger survey for this period will not be published until 2017.
'Beyond doubt''Beyond doubt'
Glen Watson, ONS deputy national statistician for population and public policy, said: "We are confident the International Passenger Survey remains the best available way of measuring long-term migration to the UK."Glen Watson, ONS deputy national statistician for population and public policy, said: "We are confident the International Passenger Survey remains the best available way of measuring long-term migration to the UK."
The government claimed the ONS put the validity of its immigration statistics "beyond doubt", adding that "it would be completely wrong for anyone to try to distort or misrepresent these figures any further following the independent ONS's conclusions".The government claimed the ONS put the validity of its immigration statistics "beyond doubt", adding that "it would be completely wrong for anyone to try to distort or misrepresent these figures any further following the independent ONS's conclusions".
MPs have been pushing for information about the number of EU nationals who have paid income tax and NI and received benefits over the past year to be published, as well as information about the nationalities of new NI applicants over the past four years.MPs have been pushing for information about the number of EU nationals who have paid income tax and NI and received benefits over the past year to be published, as well as information about the nationalities of new NI applicants over the past four years.
They say details of how many NI numbers - which are issued to those entitled to study or work to help pay tax and benefits - are being actively used show the current impact of EU migration on the UK economy and labour market.They say details of how many NI numbers - which are issued to those entitled to study or work to help pay tax and benefits - are being actively used show the current impact of EU migration on the UK economy and labour market.
National Insurance numbersNational Insurance numbers
Almost every adult resident in the UK is given a unique code, made up of letters and numbers, that they keep for life. People born in Britain are allocated a National Insurance shortly before their 16th birthday.Almost every adult resident in the UK is given a unique code, made up of letters and numbers, that they keep for life. People born in Britain are allocated a National Insurance shortly before their 16th birthday.
It is meant to ensure tax and National Insurance contributions are properly recorded against their name. It also enables access to the social security system.It is meant to ensure tax and National Insurance contributions are properly recorded against their name. It also enables access to the social security system.
Everyone coming to the UK to work must apply for a National Insurance number.Everyone coming to the UK to work must apply for a National Insurance number.
The ONS has previously said its figures include migrants only in the UK for a short period and are not a "direct measure" of when they arrived in the UK, pointing out many Bulgarians and Romanians may have been living and working on a self-employed basis for several years.
Economist Jonathan Portes - who first requested the information - said it would show how many EU nationals getting NI numbers in the past four years had remained and what economic contribution they made vis-a-vis the cost to the taxpayer.Economist Jonathan Portes - who first requested the information - said it would show how many EU nationals getting NI numbers in the past four years had remained and what economic contribution they made vis-a-vis the cost to the taxpayer.
Ministers have sought to explain the discrepancy between the ONS and the NI figures by arguing many workers applying for National Insurance numbers are only in the UK for short-term work. According to the British Labour Force Survey, there are now two million EU nationals in the UK workforce, a sharp rise on four years ago.Ministers have sought to explain the discrepancy between the ONS and the NI figures by arguing many workers applying for National Insurance numbers are only in the UK for short-term work. According to the British Labour Force Survey, there are now two million EU nationals in the UK workforce, a sharp rise on four years ago.
The Conservatives have consistently missed their target of reducing net migration - the difference between the number of people leaving and arriving - in the UK to below 100,000. The latest figure, for the year to September, was 323,000.The Conservatives have consistently missed their target of reducing net migration - the difference between the number of people leaving and arriving - in the UK to below 100,000. The latest figure, for the year to September, was 323,000.