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ONS suggests UK has had spike in short-term migration NI numbers prompt row over 1.2m EU 'immigration gap'
(about 2 hours later)
A big gap between official immigration figures and the number of EU migrants registering for National Insurance numbers has been put down to an increase in short-term immigration. Figures show 1.2m more EU migrants have got National Insurance numbers in the past five years than have shown up in immigration statistics.
An analysis by the Office for National Statistics suggests large numbers of people have come to the UK for a short period of time in recent years. Minister James Brokenshire said the gap could "largely be accounted for by short-term EU migration to the UK".
These people are not included in the headline net migration statistics. But Tory MP and EU Leave campaigner John Redwood said the NI numbers were "closer to the truth" on immigration.
These only include people who say they will be in the UK for a year or more. And he warned the difference between the two figures had "really big implications" for public services.
Voters will decide on 23 June whether the UK should remain in the EU or leave, with immigration a key battleground in the campaign. Short-term migration - where people stay in the UK for less than a year - is not taken into account in the government's headline net migration statistics.
Those campaigning to leave the EU argue the UK cannot control levels of migration from Europe - which have risen sharply in the past decade - while remaining a member and abiding by the EU's rules on the free movement of people. But former work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith said "you can't dismiss" it.
The Office for National Statistics analysis examines available data on the difference between the registration of National Insurance numbers to adult overseas nationals, and estimates of long-term international migration derived from its International Passenger Survey. "They come in, they do hotbedding in bed and breakfasts and things like that, they then take take jobs at much lower rates," he told the BBC News channel.
'Relatives and friends' "This has forced the salaries of people in low-skilled and semi-skilled jobs down so they have suffered directly as a result of uncontrolled borders with short-term migration.
The most recent ONS figures suggest that 257,000 EU migrants migrated to the UK between September 2014 and September 2015. "I'm astonished that a government, my government, can sit here and say we had a pledge to bring down migration to tens of thousands but it's all right then because it doesn't matter how many people come in as long as they don't stay more than 52 weeks."
But other figures for the same period show 630,000 National Insurance numbers were allocated to EU nationals, up 7% on the year before. Of these, 209,000 were from Bulgaria and Romania. Mr Duncan Smith and others campaigning to leave the EU argue the UK cannot control levels of migration from Europe - which have risen sharply in the past decade - while remaining a member and abiding by the EU's rules on the free movement of people.
Leave campaigners argue that this shows the official figures on inward migration from the EU vastly underestimate the true numbers. Immigration minister James Brokenshire told MPs the government remained committed to getting net migration - the difference between those entering and leaving the country - below 100,000 a year.
But the government and the Office for National Statistics both insist that National Insurance numbers are not a good way of measuring immigration because the figures include people who might come to the UK for a few weeks or months. He said the curbs secured by Prime Minister David Cameron on welfare payments to new arrivals would help - and he claimed short-term migrants do not put pressure on public services because they leave after a year.
They say the International Passenger Survey, a questionnaire given to people at random as they arrive at air and sea ports, remains the best way of estimating immigration. The minister said: "National Insurance numbers can be obtained by anyone working in the UK for just a few weeks and the ONS explains clearly why the number of National Insurance registrations should not be compared with migration figures, because they measure entirely different things.
There has been a sizeable gap between the passenger survey estimates and the National Insurance figures since 2006, according to the ONS analysis. "Short-term migrants have never been included in the long-term migration statistics which are governed by UN definitions.
"This difference is likely to reflect visitors who may be in the country for less than one month who may need a NI number to work or use the opportunity to apply for one," it says. "We have always had short-term migrants who do not get picked up in the long-term statistics but short-term migration will not have an impact on population growth and population pressures, as they by definition leave the UK within 12 months arriving."
"It may also reflect those short-term migrants that come to accompany and join relatives and friends."
The number of National Insurance numbers issued to Bulgarians and Romanians has jumped from below 50,000 to more than 200,000 since work restrictions on people from those countries were lifted in 2014.
The ONS said it did not have enough data to understand whether this was being driven by short-term migration. The "actual" short term migration figure from the passenger survey for this period will not be published until 2017.
'Beyond doubt'
Glen Watson, ONS deputy national statistician for population and public policy, said: "We are confident the International Passenger Survey remains the best available way of measuring long-term migration to the UK."
The government claimed the ONS put the validity of its immigration statistics "beyond doubt", adding that "it would be completely wrong for anyone to try to distort or misrepresent these figures any further following the independent ONS's conclusions".
MPs have been pushing for information about the number of EU nationals who have paid income tax and NI and received benefits over the past year to be published, as well as information about the nationalities of new NI applicants over the past four years.
They say details of how many NI numbers - which are issued to those entitled to study or work to help pay tax and benefits - are being actively used show the current impact of EU migration on the UK economy and labour market.
National Insurance numbersNational Insurance numbers
Almost every adult resident in the UK is given a unique code, made up of letters and numbers, that they keep for life. People born in Britain are allocated a National Insurance shortly before their 16th birthday.Almost every adult resident in the UK is given a unique code, made up of letters and numbers, that they keep for life. People born in Britain are allocated a National Insurance shortly before their 16th birthday.
It is meant to ensure tax and National Insurance contributions are properly recorded against their name. It also enables access to the social security system.It is meant to ensure tax and National Insurance contributions are properly recorded against their name. It also enables access to the social security system.
Everyone coming to the UK to work must apply for a National Insurance number.Everyone coming to the UK to work must apply for a National Insurance number.
Economist Jonathan Portes - who first requested the information - said it would show how many EU nationals getting NI numbers in the past four years had remained and what economic contribution they made vis-a-vis the cost to the taxpayer. The ONS says the International Passenger Survey, a questionnaire given to people at random as they arrive at air and sea ports, which asks people how long they intend to stay, remains the best way of estimating immigration.
Ministers have sought to explain the discrepancy between the ONS and the NI figures by arguing many workers applying for National Insurance numbers are only in the UK for short-term work. According to the British Labour Force Survey, there are now two million EU nationals in the UK workforce, a sharp rise on four years ago. Its newly-published analysis examined differences between the estimates of long-term international migration to Britain and the registration of National Insurance numbers to foreign nationals.
The Conservatives have consistently missed their target of reducing net migration - the difference between the number of people leaving and arriving - in the UK to below 100,000. The latest figure, for the year to September, was 323,000. The analysis suggests there were 1,000,400 "long-term" migrants to the UK from the EU between June 2011 and June 2015.
But other figures for the same period show 2,234,000 National Insurance numbers were allocated to EU nationals - a gap of 1.2 million.
When short-term migration is factored in the gap is much smaller, and is in fact higher in some years, although the full data is not available for the period.
The ONS analysis says there has been a sizeable gap between the passenger survey estimates for long-term immigration and the National Insurance figures since 2006.
"This difference is likely to reflect visitors who may be in the country for less than one month who may need a NI number to work or use the opportunity to apply for one," it says.
"It may also reflect those short-term migrants that come to accompany and join relatives and friends."
The number of National Insurance numbers issued to Bulgarians and Romanians has jumped from below 50,000 to more than 200,000 since work restrictions on people from those countries were lifted in 2014.
The ONS said it did not have enough data to understand whether this was being driven by short-term migration and some of the increase might be accounted for Bulgarian and Romanian citizens already in the UK applying for NI numbers, and some people might change their mind about how long they planned to stay.
The "actual" short term migration figure from the passenger survey for this period will not be published until 2017, it said.
Economist Jonathan Portes - who first requested the information - said it was clear a rise in short-term migration was big factor but the statistics have still "undercounted EU migration to the UK".