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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/15/eu-referendum-live-osborne-punishment-budget-farage-flotilla-thames
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| EU referendum live: Osborne accused of threatening 'punishment budget' | EU referendum live: Osborne accused of threatening 'punishment budget' |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 8.29am BST | |
| 08:29 | |
| 57 Tory MPs say they would vote against Osborne's 'absurd' emergency budget plans | |
| Here is the statement signed today by 57 Tory MPs saying they would vote against George Osborne’s proposed post-Brexit emergency budget. It has been issued by Vote Leave. | |
| It says: | |
| We find it incredible that the chancellor could seriously be threatening to renege on so many manifesto pledges. It is absurd to say that if people vote to take back control from the EU that he would want to punish them in this way. We do not believe that he would find it possible to get support in parliament for these proposals to cut the NHS, our police forces and our schools. | |
| If the chancellor is serious then we cannot possibly allow this to go ahead. It would be unnecessary, wrong and a rejection of the platform on which we all stood. If he were to proceed with these proposals, the chancellor’s position would become untenable. | |
| This is a blatant attempt to talk down the market and the country. The chancellor risks doing damage to the British economy in his bid to win this political campaign. | |
| And here is the list of the 57 MPs. It does not include government ministers backing Vote Leave, or Boris Johnson. | |
| 8.23am BST | |
| 08:23 | |
| Q: You are trying to scare people. This is a classic case of Project Fear. | |
| Osborne says look at what investors are doing. Sterling is falling. Money is being taken out of the stock market. This is real money, in the real world. | |
| And that’s it. The interview is over. | |
| I will post a summary shortly. | |
| 8.22am BST | |
| 08:22 | |
| Q: How will you get EU migration down? | |
| Osborne says the government is addressing abuse of the welfare system. It will be harder for EU migrants to claim benefits. And the government is doing what it can to promote economic growth in eurozone economies. | |
| Q: But 57 of your own MPs are saying they would vote against your emergency budget? | |
| Osborne says the Today programme was first broadcast in 1957. He doubts there has been a time since then when a Tory and a Labour chancellor have agreed on what might have to happen. | |
| Q: But with 57 MPs voting against, you could not pass this budget. | |
| Osborne says he does not want to raise taxes. Alistair Darling agrees taxes would have to go up. Conservatives don’t like raising taxes. But they would have to fix the public finances. | |
| Q: You would not be able to get this through the Commons. | |
| Osborne says the Conservative government would do what was necessary. | |
| 8.19am BST | |
| 08:19 | |
| Q: Voters may not believe you. Or they may think this is worth it. Is there anything more the government can offer on freedom of movement? | |
| Osborne says it is all very well for people who are wealthy to say it does not matter if the country is worse off. Osborne says he cares about that. Brexit might be for the very richest in this country. But it is not for others. | |
| He says voting to leave would be a “one-way exit”. Britain would not be able to reapply. | |
| Q: The Guardian is reporting today that Number 10 is thinking of doing more on free movement. Is there anything new you will offer? | |
| The short answer is no, says Osborne. | |
| He says the government has plans to bring down immigration. | |
| 8.16am BST | |
| 08:16 | |
| Q: But the economy was weak before the EU referendum campaign started. | |
| Osborne says the country does face economic challenges. But cutting off your links with your closest trading allies is not the answer to any of those problems. | |
| He says lots of businesses are delaying decisions before the referendum. | |
| And today Leave are saying it would take four years to negotiate withdrawal. That is being optimistic. But during those four years there would be uncertainty. | |
| Q: If you implemented this emergency budget, you would be breaking your law blocking tax increases. | |
| Osborne says the government would have to to increase taxes. That is the reality. The country would not just be immediately poorer. It would be poorer for decades ahead. | |
| If you are trading less, there is less money coming into the exchequer. | |
| 8.13am BST | |
| 08:13 | |
| George Osborne's Today interview | |
| Andrew Sparrow | |
| Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Claire. | |
| George Osborne is being interviewed on the Today programme. | |
| Q: How can you know what would happen if we leave the EU? | |
| Osborne says we have the weight of expert opinion. There are reports from the IFS and the NIESR. | |
| Q: But this has never happened before. | |
| Osborne says, listen to the market. And listen to what Rolls Royce is saying today. | |
| 7.53am BST | 7.53am BST |
| 07:53 | 07:53 |
| Sky News is reporting that 57 Conservative MPs say they would vote down a post-Brexit emergency budget of the kind dangled by George Osborne today: | Sky News is reporting that 57 Conservative MPs say they would vote down a post-Brexit emergency budget of the kind dangled by George Osborne today: |
| Some 57 Tory MPs have written a letter saying they will vote down the Brexit budget, which would contain £30bn of tax hikes and spending cuts, signalling a significant escalation in the Conservative civil war over the EU. | Some 57 Tory MPs have written a letter saying they will vote down the Brexit budget, which would contain £30bn of tax hikes and spending cuts, signalling a significant escalation in the Conservative civil war over the EU. |
| The source of the 57 figure isn’t clear, but a number of Tory MPs, including Liam Fox and Steve Baker, have already spoken out against the chancellor’s announcement. | |
| Chris Grayling, the leader of the House of Commons, also told Sky News this morning that he did not accept the £30bn figure cited by Osborne. | |
| Updated | |
| at 7.57am BST | |
| 7.32am BST | 7.32am BST |
| 07:32 | 07:32 |
| The British Medical Journal has published an editorial – penned by editor in chief Fiona Godlee and colleagues – on why it thinks doctors should vote remain. The authors acknowledge that this is “an unusual move” for the journal: | The British Medical Journal has published an editorial – penned by editor in chief Fiona Godlee and colleagues – on why it thinks doctors should vote remain. The authors acknowledge that this is “an unusual move” for the journal: |
| Some readers may wonder why the BMJ is intervening in a political debate. We think this issue transcends politics and has such huge ramifications for health and society that it is important to state our case … | Some readers may wonder why the BMJ is intervening in a political debate. We think this issue transcends politics and has such huge ramifications for health and society that it is important to state our case … |
| It has become increasingly obvious that the arguments for remaining in the EU are overwhelming, and that now is not the time for balance. | It has become increasingly obvious that the arguments for remaining in the EU are overwhelming, and that now is not the time for balance. |
| The editorial says the leave campaign claims about the NHS “are simply wrong”: | The editorial says the leave campaign claims about the NHS “are simply wrong”: |
| Its constant claim that the UK sends £350m to the EU every week has been blown out of the water … But perhaps the most laughable untruth is that the NHS would be safer in their hands … | Its constant claim that the UK sends £350m to the EU every week has been blown out of the water … But perhaps the most laughable untruth is that the NHS would be safer in their hands … |
| Those who want the UK to leave are not unlike the antivaccine lobbyists who, having forgotten the evils of measles, mumps and rubella, turn to the alleged harms of the vaccines themselves. Likewise Brexit campaigners have forgotten the evils of virulent nationalism because Europe has succeeded in containing them. | Those who want the UK to leave are not unlike the antivaccine lobbyists who, having forgotten the evils of measles, mumps and rubella, turn to the alleged harms of the vaccines themselves. Likewise Brexit campaigners have forgotten the evils of virulent nationalism because Europe has succeeded in containing them. |
| 6.58am BST | 6.58am BST |
| 06:58 | 06:58 |
| Morning briefing | Morning briefing |
| Claire Phipps | Claire Phipps |
| Good morning and welcome to our daily EU referendum coverage. | Good morning and welcome to our daily EU referendum coverage. |
| I’m kicking things off with the morning briefing to set you up for the day ahead and steering the live blog until Andrew Sparrow takes his seat. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps. | I’m kicking things off with the morning briefing to set you up for the day ahead and steering the live blog until Andrew Sparrow takes his seat. Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps. |
| The big picture | The big picture |
| So much for letting the sunshine in as we edge towards the final week of campaigning. Wednesday’s dial is set firmly to doom as chancellor George Osborne says Brexit could rip open a £30bn hole in the UK’s public finances. At an event this morning Osborne will appear alongside remain pal Alistair Darling to ramp up warnings that the Treasury would be forced to fill the gap though higher income tax, alcohol and petrol duties; and by slashing funding to the NHS, schools and defence: | So much for letting the sunshine in as we edge towards the final week of campaigning. Wednesday’s dial is set firmly to doom as chancellor George Osborne says Brexit could rip open a £30bn hole in the UK’s public finances. At an event this morning Osborne will appear alongside remain pal Alistair Darling to ramp up warnings that the Treasury would be forced to fill the gap though higher income tax, alcohol and petrol duties; and by slashing funding to the NHS, schools and defence: |
| Far from freeing up money to spend on public services as the leave campaign would like you to believe, quitting the EU would mean less money. Billions less. It’s a lose-lose situation for British families and we shouldn’t risk it. | Far from freeing up money to spend on public services as the leave campaign would like you to believe, quitting the EU would mean less money. Billions less. It’s a lose-lose situation for British families and we shouldn’t risk it. |
| Osborne will say this could mean a 2p rise in the basic rate of income tax to 22%, a 3p rise in the higher rate to 43%, and a 5% rise in inheritance tax to 45p. | Osborne will say this could mean a 2p rise in the basic rate of income tax to 22%, a 3p rise in the higher rate to 43%, and a 5% rise in inheritance tax to 45p. |
| Some leave supporters reacted angrily, with Conservative backbencher Liam Fox denouncing what he described as a “punishment budget”: | Some leave supporters reacted angrily, with Conservative backbencher Liam Fox denouncing what he described as a “punishment budget”: |
| It would damage the chancellor’s credibility and would be putting his own position in jeopardy. | It would damage the chancellor’s credibility and would be putting his own position in jeopardy. |
| I think the British public would react adversely to such a threat based on the chancellor being afraid they will vote the wrong way in his opinion. | I think the British public would react adversely to such a threat based on the chancellor being afraid they will vote the wrong way in his opinion. |
| Some commentators weren’t too concerned: | Some commentators weren’t too concerned: |
| Osborne threatening emergency tax rises and cuts post-Brexit. How would he do that from the backbenches? | Osborne threatening emergency tax rises and cuts post-Brexit. How would he do that from the backbenches? |
| The official Vote Leave campaign pointed out that Osborne’s doomsday plan would necessitate him breaking seven pledges from last year’s election manifesto. | The official Vote Leave campaign pointed out that Osborne’s doomsday plan would necessitate him breaking seven pledges from last year’s election manifesto. |
| But Darling will say that others outside the UK are already recognising the potential risks: | But Darling will say that others outside the UK are already recognising the potential risks: |
| For the first time ever, we saw German government bonds offering a negative yield – in other words, investors are paying Germany to look after their money as they seek safe havens. | For the first time ever, we saw German government bonds offering a negative yield – in other words, investors are paying Germany to look after their money as they seek safe havens. |
| As this Guardian report spells out: | As this Guardian report spells out: |
| The impact on shares in London and across the continent was dramatic as stock markets tumbled and one analyst declared that “the stench of Brexit was stalking the streets of the City”. The pound also tumbled 1.2% to below $1.41, its lowest for two months. | The impact on shares in London and across the continent was dramatic as stock markets tumbled and one analyst declared that “the stench of Brexit was stalking the streets of the City”. The pound also tumbled 1.2% to below $1.41, its lowest for two months. |
| Against that, Vote Leave (still insisting it isn’t an alternative government?) offers its blueprint for a post-23 June future: | Against that, Vote Leave (still insisting it isn’t an alternative government?) offers its blueprint for a post-23 June future: |
| On the campaign’s other main theme, immigration, there are signs of a change of heart/panic (delete as appropriate) among remainers, with reports that Downing Street is considering a last-ditch pledge to reconsider the free movement of workers within the EU. | On the campaign’s other main theme, immigration, there are signs of a change of heart/panic (delete as appropriate) among remainers, with reports that Downing Street is considering a last-ditch pledge to reconsider the free movement of workers within the EU. |
| Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, yesterday joined Ed Balls in saying more limits on migration would be on the table even if remain wins through next week. | Labour’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, yesterday joined Ed Balls in saying more limits on migration would be on the table even if remain wins through next week. |
| And in the midst of all this, Nigel Farage will come sailing up the Thames at the head of his pro-Brexit flotilla. I’ll leave you to check the weather forecast and your personal preferences to determine whether this one is filed under sunshine or gloom. | And in the midst of all this, Nigel Farage will come sailing up the Thames at the head of his pro-Brexit flotilla. I’ll leave you to check the weather forecast and your personal preferences to determine whether this one is filed under sunshine or gloom. |
| You should also know: | You should also know: |
| Poll position | Poll position |
| The FT poll of polls today pegs leave on 47% and remain on 44%. | The FT poll of polls today pegs leave on 47% and remain on 44%. |
| A TNS poll yesterday followed recent trends by finding leave ahead, this time by 47% to 40%. And a new BMG online poll has the gap at 45%-41% in favour of leave. | A TNS poll yesterday followed recent trends by finding leave ahead, this time by 47% to 40%. And a new BMG online poll has the gap at 45%-41% in favour of leave. |
| EU referendum poll:Remain: 41% (-3)Leave: 45% (-)(via BMG, online) | EU referendum poll:Remain: 41% (-3)Leave: 45% (-)(via BMG, online) |
| Diary | Diary |
| Read these | Read these |
| In the Economist, Bagehot says remainers should not give up hope just yet: | In the Economist, Bagehot says remainers should not give up hope just yet: |
| In such moments – when faced by a choice between an imperfect status quo and a leap into the dark – Britons have, in the past, rarely chosen the latter. To defy that tradition, Leave has to disguise a vote to quit the EU as the safer, more small-c conservative option. Yet here too, the polling (judging by YouGov’s tracker) suggests that the campaign has failed. | In such moments – when faced by a choice between an imperfect status quo and a leap into the dark – Britons have, in the past, rarely chosen the latter. To defy that tradition, Leave has to disguise a vote to quit the EU as the safer, more small-c conservative option. Yet here too, the polling (judging by YouGov’s tracker) suggests that the campaign has failed. |
| For all its bogus claims that Turkey will soon join the EU, I have yet to see proof that it has persuaded voters that the dangers of continuing in the club are greater. That most voters rightly consider the choice before them on June 23rd more significant than that at a general election suggests that they will be particularly risk-averse next week. | For all its bogus claims that Turkey will soon join the EU, I have yet to see proof that it has persuaded voters that the dangers of continuing in the club are greater. That most voters rightly consider the choice before them on June 23rd more significant than that at a general election suggests that they will be particularly risk-averse next week. |
| Dutch daily newspaper Algemeen Dagblad has issued a plea to British voters: please stay. | Dutch daily newspaper Algemeen Dagblad has issued a plea to British voters: please stay. |
| Nobody in Europe appreciates your culture more than we do. The Beatles, Bridget Jones, One Direction, EastEnders, Brideshead Revisited, we love it all. Many of us know Monty Python’s Dead Parrot sketch by heart. | Nobody in Europe appreciates your culture more than we do. The Beatles, Bridget Jones, One Direction, EastEnders, Brideshead Revisited, we love it all. Many of us know Monty Python’s Dead Parrot sketch by heart. |
| We admire your stiff upper lip. And every year we remember, with the greatest respect, all those who have fallen to liberate our country. | We admire your stiff upper lip. And every year we remember, with the greatest respect, all those who have fallen to liberate our country. |
| Now you are thinking of leaving us. Sailing out your floating country towards distant shores, so says your largest newspaper, the Sun. Talking as a Dutch uncle, we have to tell you this is not a good idea. | Now you are thinking of leaving us. Sailing out your floating country towards distant shores, so says your largest newspaper, the Sun. Talking as a Dutch uncle, we have to tell you this is not a good idea. |
| We not only love you, we need you. Who else supports us in keeping some common sense on this turbulent continent of ours? An EU without the UK would be like tea without milk. Bitter. So please, stay. Stay with us. | We not only love you, we need you. Who else supports us in keeping some common sense on this turbulent continent of ours? An EU without the UK would be like tea without milk. Bitter. So please, stay. Stay with us. |
| Baffling claim of the day | Baffling claim of the day |
| The Sun front page, refusing to let up after its endorsement of leave yesterday, now warns of “nasty Euro moths” – a “massive swarm of super-moths from Europe”. The paper urges readers: | The Sun front page, refusing to let up after its endorsement of leave yesterday, now warns of “nasty Euro moths” – a “massive swarm of super-moths from Europe”. The paper urges readers: |
| Vote Leave to protect our country … and our cabbages from nasty crop-ravaging Euro moths set to hit the UK. | Vote Leave to protect our country … and our cabbages from nasty crop-ravaging Euro moths set to hit the UK. |
| Brexit would definitely stop the diamondback moths – as they’re technically known – coming over here and taking our cabbages, because the British Isles would be towed further away from the mainland continent. Also the moths would not have passports. | Brexit would definitely stop the diamondback moths – as they’re technically known – coming over here and taking our cabbages, because the British Isles would be towed further away from the mainland continent. Also the moths would not have passports. |
| Celebrity endorsement of the day | Celebrity endorsement of the day |
| I don't want to leave a union that has brought more peace and stability to the region than it has ever known #Remain https://t.co/lsPqxUKe7k | I don't want to leave a union that has brought more peace and stability to the region than it has ever known #Remain https://t.co/lsPqxUKe7k |
| The day in a tweet | The day in a tweet |
| 2. There's warning the country of post-Brexit consequences & then there's suggesting you're not good enough a chancellor to mitigate them | 2. There's warning the country of post-Brexit consequences & then there's suggesting you're not good enough a chancellor to mitigate them |
| If today were a novel ... | If today were a novel ... |
| It would be Three Men in a Boat, a comic tale of a Thames-based escapade, with plenty of pubs along the way. Plus, as the Observer’s list of 100 best novels put it, “an unconscious elegy for imperial Britain”. | It would be Three Men in a Boat, a comic tale of a Thames-based escapade, with plenty of pubs along the way. Plus, as the Observer’s list of 100 best novels put it, “an unconscious elegy for imperial Britain”. |
| And another thing | And another thing |
| Would you like to wake up to this briefing in your inbox every weekday? Sign up here! | Would you like to wake up to this briefing in your inbox every weekday? Sign up here! |
| Related: EU referendum morning briefing - sign up here | Related: EU referendum morning briefing - sign up here |