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EU referendum poll tracker: What the polls show as Britain votes to Remain or Brexit EU referendum live tracker: Brexit or Remain – follow the results as they happen
(about 13 hours later)
With just hours to go until voting opens in the EU referendum, the opinion polls are too close to call. Renew this page as the graphic will be updated continually until the result is declared on Friday morning.
Some bookmakers have told The Independent they are up to 90 per cent sure the result will go to Remain, and currency markets appear to have sured up in anticipation of that outcome.  
Follow the latest live updates on the EU referendum  
But the most recent YouGov poll shows Leave still with a slight lead, and a Survation poll on Tuesday saw the pro-Brexit camp claw back the gap to just one point. The UK has voted in an historic referendum on whether it wants to remain in or leave the EU, and polling teams are working through the night to return results from across the country.
An Opinium poll, the company's last before the vote, had the Leave side one point ahead on 45 to 44 per cent - but they called it "too close to call" on that basis alone.   The decision will have huge ramifications for the country, the UK’s place in the world – and the political futures of many of Britain’s most senior politicians.
The Independent will continue to track all the changes in the polls, with three more releases expected before most people have voted. Final opinion polls released as the voting booths shut at 10pm gave a four-point lead to Remain – but while conducted on the day, that was far from a conventional exit poll and subject to a similar set of accuracy issues as most polls.
They are a Comres phone poll and YouGov online poll both due at 10pm, and an Ipsos Mori poll due at 10am on the day itself. And the first major results to come in, from Newcastle and Sunderland, have showed much stronger performances for Leave than experts predicted.
If the general election proved anything, it is that the polls shuold not be trusted as a cast-iron indicator of how the vote will go. An hour ahead and with a small population, Gibraltar announced its result first shortly before midnight, giving a big lead to Remain – as was expected from a territory positioned on the other side of the EU.
But swings in the polls do appear to have corresponded with key events that seem likely to have influenced opinions. From that first result to the last – expected at around breakfast time on Friday morning – we’ll bring you all the counts in our interactive live tracker here.
John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University and one of the country’s foremost polling experts, told The Independent on Tuesday: “It’s around 50-50. To cut a long story short, undoubtedly last week Leave made progress – the first significant progress of the campaign. You actually had the phone polls calling it 50-50 and you had the internet polls having Leave ahead. It’s very, very tight. You can’t call this referendum – it’s too close.”  
The EU referendum debate has so far been characterised by bias, distortion and exaggeration. So until 23 June we we’re running a series of question and answer features that explain the most important issues in a detailed, dispassionate way to help inform your decision.
What is Brexit and why are we having an EU referendum?
Does the UK need to take more control of its sovereignty?
Could the UK media swing the EU referendum one way or another?
Will the UK benefit from being released from EU laws?
Will we gain or lose rights by leaving the European Union?
Will Brexit mean that Europeans have to leave the UK?
Will leaving the EU lead to the break-up of the UK?
What will happen to immigration if there's Brexit?
Will Brexit make the UK more or less safe?
Will the UK benefit from being released from EU laws?
Will leaving the EU save taxpayers money and mean more money for the NHS?
What will Brexit mean for British tourists booking holidays in the EU?
Will Brexit help or damage the environment?
Will Brexit mean that Europeans have to leave the UK?
What will Brexit mean for British expats in Europe?