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EU referendum: Polls say it is too close to call, but early results suggest support for Leave is stronger than expected EU referendum: Britain's future in the balance as top pollster says Brexit camp is 'just winning'
(35 minutes later)
Britain is narrowly on course to vote to stay in the European Union, five final opinion surveys have suggested as the polls closed and counting began in the most fiercely fought and significant referendum in a generation. Britain could be on the verge of pulling out of the European Union after a surge in support for Brexit confounded pollsters and led to the sharpest one-day drop in the pound since the global financial crisis.
But very early results suggested that support for leaving the European Union was stronger than had been expected. In early results the Leave campaign outperformed expectations across the country and in particular the North-east. In areas where Remain were expected to do well their margin of victory was smaller than expected.
The polling expert Professor John Curtice said that from the early results it appeared that the Leave campaign had the edge. He would not predict the result but added that based on his forecaster leave was outperforming while remain was so far doing less well than it should if it was going to win.
"We are looking at a close referendum", Professor Curtice said. "Probably at the moment the LEave  side are a bit more the favourites in this referendum than the Remain side."
With 86 out of 382 local authority areas declared the Remain campaign was narrowly in the lead with 50.3 per cent of votes cast to 49.7 per cent for leave.
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With 14 out of 382 local authorities declared Leave had 473,688 votes to 460, 712 for remain. Turnout is so far around 70 per cent. But based on predictions of the areas to declare so far, the Leave campaign appears to have the upper hand.
Among the first areas to declare was Sunderland – that Leave won by 22 per cent while Newcastle voted for Remain by a margin of 1 per cent - tighter than predicted. There were also Leave wins in Swindon and Broxbourne. Bookmakers responded by slashing the odds of Brexit while the pound fell sharply against all other major currencies. 
However will less than four per cent of the votes declared the final result is not expected to be clear until later this morning. Among the first areas to declare was Sunderland – which Leave won by 22 per cent while Newcastle voted for Remain by a margin of 1 per cent – much tighter than predicted. There were also Leave wins in Swindon and Broxbourne.
None the less the pound fell back sharply against the dollar as traders reacted to the early results. There was better news for Remain in London, Glasgow and Oxford – but polling experts warned this might not be enough to off set worse than expected results elsewhere.
Earlier sterling had rallied sharply on the basis of several polls showing a win for remain. If Britain does vote to leave it would confound a string of polls yesterday suggesting a comfortable win for remain.
A YouGov poll of 5,000 people released at 10pm put Remain on 52 per cent (up one per cent on its last poll) and Leave on 48 (down one). An internal poll carried out by the campaign group Leave.EU of 10,000 people over the last 48 hours suggested the same headline result. A YouGov poll of 5000 people released at ten pm put Remain on 52 per cent (up one per cent on its last poll) and Leave on 48 (down one). An internal poll carried out by the campaign group Leave.EU of 10,000 people over the last 48 hours suggested the same headline result.
Even Ukip’s leader Nigel Farage said he was not confident of a leave vote telling Sky News that he thought Remain would “edge it”. Sources in the Remain camp said they were “cautiously optimistic”. Senior Labour figures including Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper suggested that the scale of support for Leave was fuelled by discontent with the way the country was heading on issues like wages, jobs and opportunities for the young.
Joe Twyman, head of political and social research at YouGov said they had gone back to the same people they had previously surveyed to asked them how they had actually voted. "It's a nation divided and the PM will have a big responsibility - particularly if it's a Remain win - to show he understands what people are saying on the Leave side of the argument," said former Labour leader Mr Miliband.
“The survey found a small move to Remain and based on these results we expect the United Kingdom to continue as a member of the European Union,” he said. "Labour faces that responsibility too. As far as Labour voters are concerned, there are two issues. There is obviously immigration, but beneath that there is a whole set of issues about people's lives and the fact that they don't feel politics is listening to them.
However he added: “The results are close and it too early to call it definitively.” A similar poll carried out by YouGov at the general election failed to predict the accurate result. Lib Dem former Cabinet minister Sir Vince Cable said Mr Cameron's authority would be completely gone in Britain did vote for Brexit and he would have to stand down.
Earlier in the day a ComRes for ITV News earlier put the campaign for the UK to remain in the EU on 48 per cent and the Leave campaign on 42 per cent.  He described holding the referendum as a "very bad call" by the Prime Minister, who failed to understand what happens "when you just throw the cards in the air".
A Populus poll showed Remain on 55 per cent to Leave’s 45 per cent. Shadow chancellor John McDonnell told BBC News that if it was a leave vote the Bank of England would have to intervene to prop up the pound. 
Another poll, by Ipsos Mori, for the Evening Standard gave remain a four-point lead at 52 per cent, against 48 per cent. However TNS and Opinium still put the leave camp slightly ahead. "Chancellors and shadow chancellors can't comment on sterling but what we can do is have a mature approach to this and say whatever the outcome, we will negotiate the best deal we possible can with regard to our trading partners in Europe and in that way we might give some assurances to the market," he said.
In an attempt to unify the Tory party after the bruising and divisive campaign a letter was released after the polls closed signed by more than 80 Eurosceptic Tory MPs – including every Cabinet minister who voted Leave - urging David Cameron to remain as Prime Minister regardless of the referendum result. In an attempt to unify the Tory party after the bruising and divisive campaign a letter was released after the polls closed signed by more than 80 Eurosceptic Tory MPs – including every Cabinet minister who voted Leave urging David Cameron to remain as Prime Minister regardless of the referendum result.
The letter stated: “We who are supporters of Vote Leave and members of the Conservative Party thank you for giving the British people a choice of their destiny on 23 June.The letter stated: “We who are supporters of Vote Leave and members of the Conservative Party thank you for giving the British people a choice of their destiny on 23 June.
“We believe that whatever the British people decide you have both a mandate and a duty to continue leading the nation implementing our 2015 manifesto.”“We believe that whatever the British people decide you have both a mandate and a duty to continue leading the nation implementing our 2015 manifesto.”
The Leave campaigner and Cabinet minister, Chris Grayling, said: “It's really important now that the Conservative Party unites and gets on with the job of governing the country. The leave campaigner and cabinet minister Chris Grayling said: “It's really important now that the Conservative Party unites and gets on with the job of governing the country.
"It has been a robust debate on a subject that both sides feel passionate about but we are facing a labour opposition that is more left wing and more extreme than any other in my lifetime. We must make sure that they don't get anywhere near power because of divisions in our ranks."It has been a robust debate on a subject that both sides feel passionate about but we are facing a labour opposition that is more left wing and more extreme than any other in my lifetime. We must make sure that they don't get anywhere near power because of divisions in our ranks.
"There is a very strong view amongst conservative MPs that we need to move on and unite behind David Cameron.""There is a very strong view amongst conservative MPs that we need to move on and unite behind David Cameron."
There is unlikely to be a final declaration of the result much before breakfast time – but unless the result is particularly close it should be possible to call it a couple of hours before - after the UK’s major conurbations have declared their results. There is unlikely to be a final declaration of the result much before breakfast time.
A key moment is expected to come around 3am when Birmingham declares its result. Glasgow and Liverpool are should declare a little earlier.
Despite heavy rain in some parts of the country turnout is expected to be high.
Scotland's chief returning officer Mary Pitkeithley said she estimated turnout at between 70 and 80 per cent.
Provisional figures released by the elections watchdog, the Electoral Commission, show 46.5m people signed up to vote - 150,000 more than could have turned out at last year's general election.
Downpours hit London and parts of south-east England overnight and early on Thursday morning, leading to some being forced to queue in the rain to cast their ballots.
Some polling stations were forced to relocate. A launderette and shipping container were among some of the more unusual places where people exercised their democratic mandate.
Kingston-upon-Thames Council in south west London moved two voting locations, and a polling station in Barking and Dagenham, east London, was shut because of a burst water main.
One polling station in Dover experienced a power outage due to the storms and was running on a generator for much of the day.
Flooding outside other polling stations made some tricky to access.
Merton council tweeted a video of a waterlogged walkway outside Sacred Heart School polling station in New Malden, advising voters to "wear your wellies".
A council spokeswoman said no one had been turned away and that staff were doing "everything they can" to guide voters and drivers through and clear water away.
As politicians, on both sides of the debate, cast their votes they expressed optimism that the result would go their way.
Asked if he was feeing confident, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn Corbyn smiled and said: "Extremely, it's a very good day."
On the outcome of the referendum, he joked: "You could either check the wind or check the bookies," adding "the bookies usually get it right".
Pro-Leave Justice Secretary Michael Gove said he was feeling "quite excited" as he accompanied his wife, Sarah Vine, to a polling station in North Kensington.
Asked if he was feeling confident ahead of the result as he waited to board a flight to London at Edinburgh Airport, Boris Johnson said: "I think the polls have been very close.
"From what I have heard and all the information is that turnout is good in areas where we need it to be."
Asked if poor weather could affect turnout in key parts of the country, he added: "l don't think that will make any difference in the long run.
"It's a long time to go until the polls close."
Nigel Farage meanwhile received a forceful reply from Tory former minister Sir Nicholas Soames, grandson of Winston Churchill, when he made a late plea for voters to back Brexit.
Mr Farage wrote on Twitter: "If you want your borders back, if you want your democracy back, if you want your country back then vote to leave! £IndependenceDay."
Sir Nicholas, a supporter of Remain, replied: "Oh b*******."