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Brexit live: Farage 'disgusted' at May's refusal to promise EU nationals they can stay in UK Brexit live: Farage 'disgusted' at May's refusal to promise EU nationals they can stay in UK
(35 minutes later)
10.17am BST
10:17
Richard Adams
The vice chancellors of Britain’s leading universities say they are “concerned by reports of increasing xenophobic incidents” and have issued a pledge to protect staff and students from attacks in the wake of the EU referendum result.
The Russell Group of leading UK research universities is in the frontline of Brexit fallout, vulnerable to uncertainty over research funding, staff and student recruitment from Europe.
David Greenaway, vice-chancellor of the University of Nottingham and the group’s chair, and Wendy Piatt, the group’s director-general, have announced that they are already in talks with the government “to ensure the best possible outcome from upcoming negotiations”.Here’s an extract from the full Russell Group statement.
Leaving the EU will have a profound effect on our universities, who have long thrived on global collaboration and international interaction – be it through European staff and students coming to our universities, or when our best researchers work with colleagues across Europe to tackle big social and scientific challenges.
Our universities have, therefore, always warmly welcomed people from different cultures, ethnicities and beliefs. Embracing this very diversity is vital to our success, fundamental to our values and enriches life on campus. So we are especially concerned by reports of increasing xenophobic incidents and how this could impact on our communities. We simply will not tolerate abuse of this sort and any student or staff member who experiences racism or xenophobia on or off our campuses can be assured this will be taken extremely seriously. Now more than ever we should ensure our campuses are places where diversity is welcomed, cherished and respected.
10.13am BST
10:13
Libby Brooks
Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, will host a group of diplomats representing EU countries at Bute House, to discuss how the Scottish government can provide further reassurance to all EU citizens living in Scotland.
Ahead of the meeting, Sturgeon said:
I have made it very clear that citizens of EU countries who have decided to make Scotland their home should receive an absolute guarantee from the UK government that their status here is safe and secure.
I have already written to the prime minister and the potential candidates to succeed him, calling for that assurance to be made without delay - and that is just one of the issues I will be discussing with consuls and diplomats at today’s summit.
The first minister is also meeting representatives of the CBI, the Institute of Directors and other Scottish business groups, saying that the business community’s response to Brexit will be “crucial in protecting Scotland’s interests.”
10.11am BST
10:11
Tom Watson, Labour’s deputy leader, is talking to Labour’s main union backers today to try to find a solution to the Jeremy Corbyn crisis but he is not chairing a single meeting. He is due to meet Len McCluskey, the Unite general secretary, along with John Cryer, chair of the parliamentary Labour party, this morning. Later in the day he is expected to talk separately to Dave Prentis, the Unison general secretary, Tom Roache, the GMB general secretary, and Dave Ward, the CWU general secretary. Coordinating their diaries has apparently been a bit of a problem.
9.54am BST9.54am BST
09:5409:54
There are a lot of Tory MPs on Twitter this morning expressing support for Theresa May – some of them using identical language.There are a lot of Tory MPs on Twitter this morning expressing support for Theresa May – some of them using identical language.
Today I'll be voting for @TheresaMay2016 for Prime Minister: she has the leadership to unite the Party & country https://t.co/eJN7P5lxtpToday I'll be voting for @TheresaMay2016 for Prime Minister: she has the leadership to unite the Party & country https://t.co/eJN7P5lxtp
I’ll be voting for @TheresaMay2016 she has the leadership to unite the Party & our country https://t.co/4ypE4rOv0oI’ll be voting for @TheresaMay2016 she has the leadership to unite the Party & our country https://t.co/4ypE4rOv0o
I'm voting for @TheresaMay2016 - tried and tested & knows how to make tough decisions #TM4PMI'm voting for @TheresaMay2016 - tried and tested & knows how to make tough decisions #TM4PM
Strong, determined and straight talking @TheresaMay2016 is the outstanding candidate to be Prime Minister. I'll be voting for her today.Strong, determined and straight talking @TheresaMay2016 is the outstanding candidate to be Prime Minister. I'll be voting for her today.
After listening to the candidates last night, I'm backing experience, stability, strength & leadership for uncertain times @TheresaMay2016After listening to the candidates last night, I'm backing experience, stability, strength & leadership for uncertain times @TheresaMay2016
Why I'm backing @TheresaMay2016: for a Britain that works for everyone & her formidable track record in govt: https://t.co/SDyOFtzPxb #TM4PMWhy I'm backing @TheresaMay2016: for a Britain that works for everyone & her formidable track record in govt: https://t.co/SDyOFtzPxb #TM4PM
Here is why I'm backing @TheresaMay2016 for Prime Minister: She has strong record of delivery and is a proven leader https://t.co/StrkUvTdFjHere is why I'm backing @TheresaMay2016 for Prime Minister: She has strong record of delivery and is a proven leader https://t.co/StrkUvTdFj
I am backing @TheresaMay2016 for Prime Minister. Strong & reliable leadership for challenging years ahead. Also to win the 2020 Election!I am backing @TheresaMay2016 for Prime Minister. Strong & reliable leadership for challenging years ahead. Also to win the 2020 Election!
I voted Leave and it's now time for strong leadership to unite our great nation - I'm backing @TheresaMay2016 #TM4PM pic.twitter.com/DJV4Cb1T1ZI voted Leave and it's now time for strong leadership to unite our great nation - I'm backing @TheresaMay2016 #TM4PM pic.twitter.com/DJV4Cb1T1Z
It is harder to find MPs on Twitter backing other candidates this morning, but David Mowat has said he is backing Andrea Leadsom.It is harder to find MPs on Twitter backing other candidates this morning, but David Mowat has said he is backing Andrea Leadsom.
Today, I'll be voting for my friend and colleague @andrealeadsom in the leadership ballot. I'm sure she would make a superb PM.Today, I'll be voting for my friend and colleague @andrealeadsom in the leadership ballot. I'm sure she would make a superb PM.
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.59am BSTat 9.59am BST
9.45am BST9.45am BST
09:4509:45
Nicky Morgan, the education secretary who is backing Michael Gove, told the BBC this morning that she did not think Andrea Leadsom was experienced enough to be leader. She said:Nicky Morgan, the education secretary who is backing Michael Gove, told the BBC this morning that she did not think Andrea Leadsom was experienced enough to be leader. She said:
[Leadsom] has not been a cabinet minister. She has not been a minister for that long. And there is definitely a mood in the party for making sure that two cabinet heavyweights we have got, who come from different traditions, different sides of the EU referendum campaign, Theresa May and Michael Gove - it would be right to put them to the party in the country.[Leadsom] has not been a cabinet minister. She has not been a minister for that long. And there is definitely a mood in the party for making sure that two cabinet heavyweights we have got, who come from different traditions, different sides of the EU referendum campaign, Theresa May and Michael Gove - it would be right to put them to the party in the country.
9.33am BST9.33am BST
09:3309:33
This is a useful reminder that the first round of voting in a Conservative party leadership election is not always a helpful guide to the final result.This is a useful reminder that the first round of voting in a Conservative party leadership election is not always a helpful guide to the final result.
Ahead in the 1st rd of Conservative leadership contests:1990: Margaret Thatcher1997: Ken Clarke2001: Michael Portillo2005: David DavisAhead in the 1st rd of Conservative leadership contests:1990: Margaret Thatcher1997: Ken Clarke2001: Michael Portillo2005: David Davis
9.29am BST9.29am BST
09:2909:29
Tory members back Theresa May's stance on EU nationals, poll suggestsTory members back Theresa May's stance on EU nationals, poll suggests
Here are more figures from the YouGov poll of Conservative members in today’s Times (paywall). It suggests that Theresa May would comfortably beat Andrea Leadsom in the final ballot.Here are more figures from the YouGov poll of Conservative members in today’s Times (paywall). It suggests that Theresa May would comfortably beat Andrea Leadsom in the final ballot.
It also suggests Conservative members back Theresa May’s position on EU nationals remaining in the UK (which is to refuse to promise them now that they can stay, because she wants to secure reciprocal rights for Britons living in the EU as part of the withdrawal negotiations). This is interesting because many Tory MPs, and all the other four leadership candidates, want to assure EU nationals now that they can remain.It also suggests Conservative members back Theresa May’s position on EU nationals remaining in the UK (which is to refuse to promise them now that they can stay, because she wants to secure reciprocal rights for Britons living in the EU as part of the withdrawal negotiations). This is interesting because many Tory MPs, and all the other four leadership candidates, want to assure EU nationals now that they can remain.
More than 7 out of 10 Tory members back Theresa May tying future of EU migrants in UK to future of British EU expats pic.twitter.com/5WkKYvVXjqMore than 7 out of 10 Tory members back Theresa May tying future of EU migrants in UK to future of British EU expats pic.twitter.com/5WkKYvVXjq
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.36am BSTat 9.36am BST
9.00am BST9.00am BST
09:0009:00
Farage says he is disgusted Theresa May is refusing to promise EU nationals they can stay in UKFarage says he is disgusted Theresa May is refusing to promise EU nationals they can stay in UK
Andrew SparrowAndrew Sparrow
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Claire.Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Claire.
Nigel Farage, the outgoing Ukip leader, has been on LBC this morning. He has joined the large chorus of Brexit politicians (and remain ones too) criticising Theresa May for refusing to promise EU nationals living in the UK that they will definitely be allowed to stay. These are from LBC’s Theo Usherwood.Nigel Farage, the outgoing Ukip leader, has been on LBC this morning. He has joined the large chorus of Brexit politicians (and remain ones too) criticising Theresa May for refusing to promise EU nationals living in the UK that they will definitely be allowed to stay. These are from LBC’s Theo Usherwood.
Nigel Farage on LBC now: I might watch a bit of cricket, catch the odd fish, go to the pub.... I wouldn't mind a bit of normality.Nigel Farage on LBC now: I might watch a bit of cricket, catch the odd fish, go to the pub.... I wouldn't mind a bit of normality.
Farage: If I can help behind the scenes with the Brexit negotiations then I would be happy to do so.Farage: If I can help behind the scenes with the Brexit negotiations then I would be happy to do so.
Farage: I am disgusted at the way May has been speaking. The EU nationals living in the UK came here legally and they have protected rights.Farage: I am disgusted at the way May has been speaking. The EU nationals living in the UK came here legally and they have protected rights.
8.42am BST8.42am BST
08:4208:42
Anushka AsthanaAnushka Asthana
It was mainly Conservative MPs who were drinking in the House of Commons bars last night as many discussed how the leadership candidates had performed in the hustings.It was mainly Conservative MPs who were drinking in the House of Commons bars last night as many discussed how the leadership candidates had performed in the hustings.
Some joked that Andrea Leadsom had lost them when she began to talk about “frontal lobes” and her “3 B’s – Brussels, banks and babies”. The reference was to the attachment theory between parents and newborns and the impact on brain development, something she is passionate about.Some joked that Andrea Leadsom had lost them when she began to talk about “frontal lobes” and her “3 B’s – Brussels, banks and babies”. The reference was to the attachment theory between parents and newborns and the impact on brain development, something she is passionate about.
Many said Michael Gove and Liam Fox performed best, but said Theresa May got the best reception and described Stephen Crabb as solid.Many said Michael Gove and Liam Fox performed best, but said Theresa May got the best reception and described Stephen Crabb as solid.
Around 25 MPs went on to a later session in which the candidates addressed the party’s 2020 group, a set of MPs thinking about winning the next election, in half-hour sessions.Around 25 MPs went on to a later session in which the candidates addressed the party’s 2020 group, a set of MPs thinking about winning the next election, in half-hour sessions.
But others went to a special karaoke session in which I’m told all the leadership candidates, apart from Leadsom, turned up for a singalong that stretched into the night.But others went to a special karaoke session in which I’m told all the leadership candidates, apart from Leadsom, turned up for a singalong that stretched into the night.
Sources suggest Crabb came out with a belter: Don’t Stop Me Now!Sources suggest Crabb came out with a belter: Don’t Stop Me Now!
The karaoke was organised by the deputy leader of the house, Therese Coffey, and dozens of MPs came, singing a variety of songs including Mr Brightside, Mack the Knife and Summer Nights.The karaoke was organised by the deputy leader of the house, Therese Coffey, and dozens of MPs came, singing a variety of songs including Mr Brightside, Mack the Knife and Summer Nights.
8.32am BST8.32am BST
08:3208:32
Crabb: 'being gay is not a sin'Crabb: 'being gay is not a sin'
Crabb voted against same-sex marriage and has come in for criticism – particularly since he launched his leadership bid – for his views.Crabb voted against same-sex marriage and has come in for criticism – particularly since he launched his leadership bid – for his views.
He told the BBC his objection had been on the “narrow issue of protection of religious freedom”:He told the BBC his objection had been on the “narrow issue of protection of religious freedom”:
I’m very happy with the outcome of the vote … I totally, totally support equal marriage in law. I don’t want anybody in society feeling second best. I don’t believe that being gay is a sin.I’m very happy with the outcome of the vote … I totally, totally support equal marriage in law. I don’t want anybody in society feeling second best. I don’t believe that being gay is a sin.
Crabb also said that quotes circulating on social media in which he allegedly backed “gay conversion therapy” were a “complete falsehood”, adding that he does not believe that being gay is something that can be “cured”:Crabb also said that quotes circulating on social media in which he allegedly backed “gay conversion therapy” were a “complete falsehood”, adding that he does not believe that being gay is something that can be “cured”:
It’s certainly not part of my Christian outlook.It’s certainly not part of my Christian outlook.
UpdatedUpdated
at 9.28am BSTat 9.28am BST
8.29am BST8.29am BST
08:2908:29
Asked about his proposal for a £100bn Growing Britain fund – borrowing to invest in infrastructure projects – Crabb mentioned (a few times) the need for “bold choices”:Asked about his proposal for a £100bn Growing Britain fund – borrowing to invest in infrastructure projects – Crabb mentioned (a few times) the need for “bold choices”:
We’re at a major turning point … if we’re going to turn this [Brexit] to our advantage, we need to make some different economic choices.We’re at a major turning point … if we’re going to turn this [Brexit] to our advantage, we need to make some different economic choices.
The plan sounds similar to that outlined in Labour’s manifesto in the 2015 election, presenter Mishal Husain tells him. Does he want to pay tribute to Ed Balls?The plan sounds similar to that outlined in Labour’s manifesto in the 2015 election, presenter Mishal Husain tells him. Does he want to pay tribute to Ed Balls?
Astonishingly, he does not.Astonishingly, he does not.
Crabb also insists he’s not abandoning government policy:Crabb also insists he’s not abandoning government policy:
It will always be a hallmark of a Conservative government to put a really strong emphasis on fiscal discipline and controlling spending.It will always be a hallmark of a Conservative government to put a really strong emphasis on fiscal discipline and controlling spending.
[But] Britain has to forge a new future in the world.[But] Britain has to forge a new future in the world.
UpdatedUpdated
at 8.36am BSTat 8.36am BST
8.23am BST
08:23
Crabb: 'no rush' to trigger article 50
Stephen Crabb, work and pensions secretary and wannabe prime minister, is on the Today programme. He’s repeated his argument that the status of EU nationals already living in the UK should not be used as bargaining chips in Brexit negotiations:
The idea that we will be at some sort of Checkpoint Charlie scenario, arguing over who’s going to live in which countries … is not going to happen.
And on the key issue of triggering article 50 – there’s no rush:
I think it’s a mistake for people to rush out to set out a timetable right now for activating article 50 … The dust hasn’t begun to settle. [The new PM] needs to take stock and work up a clear vision of what is in the national interest.
Some of the other candidates … have felt under pressure to set out now what their timetable would be. We need to take a whole UK perspective on this … the mayor of London has got a role in those kinds of discussions.
(He did mention Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland too.)
Crabb said it would not matter if the final two were to be him and Theresa May – two remainers, warning such descriptors carried a “serious risk of splitting the party; we’ve got to make this leadership election about the future”.
Updated
at 8.29am BST
8.11am BST
08:11
Graeme Wearden
The Bank of England will released its latest financial stability report at 10.30am, assessing the state of the UK’s economy. It looks rather more unstable than two weeks ago, of course, since the EU referendum vote turned politics on its head and put business confidence on its knees.
Then at 11am, Mark Carney will hold a press conference to explain the Bank’s thinking, and any new measures it is taking to tackle the crisis.
This will be Carney’s second set piece event in a week; last Thursday, he all-but promised interest rate cuts and more stimulus measures this summer.
So what could he do today?
The Bank could choose to relax the capital rules imposed on banks, to give them more leeway to handle the fallout from Brexit. That would be a symbolic move to ease pressures on the City; it’s only six months since the BoE tightened those rules, which are meant to protect us from a financial crisis.
Carney could also signal that more credit will be thrown at the economy, by beefing up the existing Funding for Lending. That would also help to prevent a credit crunch clogging up the economy.
Related: Mark Carney to outline Bank of England's Brexit stability moves – business live
Updated
at 8.30am BST
8.06am BST
08:06
Buzzfeed’s Jim Waterson reports that Raheem Kassam, editor-in-chief of the UK outlet of rightwing news site Breitbart, and a former aide to Nigel Farage, is thinking of throwing his hat into the Ukip leadership ring. Sort of:
I intend to shake up the leadership contest. Maybe by running. Maybe another way. Farage knows and he told me by way of third party that it was a good idea. Don’t know if that is true or not, to be honest.
On BBC’s Newsnight last night, Kassam defended the Leave.EU “Breaking Point” poster, widely condemned during the referendum campaign:
.@RaheemKassam says "breaking point" poster was poorly executed but "message was fine" #newsnight
Updated
at 8.31am BST
7.47am BST
07:47
If you had to pick one of the Tory leadership contenders to describe as a “warrior for the dispossessed”, who would it be?
For Nicky Morgan, writing in the Telegraph this morning, it’s her predecessor as education secretary, Michael Gove. And so he ought to be the prime minister, she says:
It needs someone who will stand up for what’s right and not hide from big decisions. Someone with the ideas, passion and energy to get the job done. Someone who, through courageous and long-overdue education reforms (which I’ve had the privilege to build on) and wide-ranging changes to the way the criminal justice system works, has done more to transform the life chances of the most disadvantaged than any other Cabinet minister of recent times. Someone with an unshakeable commitment to being a ‘warrior for the dispossessed’.
Michael Gove offers the change and the leadership we need if we are to meet this moment with the hard-headed response it demands.
Updated
at 8.31am BST
7.36am BST
07:36
Should Suzanne Evans – currently suspended from the party – be allowed to stand in the Ukip leadership, Nuttall is asked.
[It’s] not my decision, unfortunately. Suzanne is a fantastic frontwoman for the party and I hope Suzanne comes back into the party. If the national executive committee says that Suzanne is able to stand, then I will back them absolutely 100%.
Nuttall also, he says, gets on very well with Ukip’s sole MP, Douglas Carswell – who responded to news of Farage’s resignation with a smiley-faced emoji tweet.
I don’t have a problem on a personal level with Douglas Carswell at all … unity is the key.
Updated
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7.33am BST
07:33
Reminded of a blogpost he wrote on 2010 (deleted but archived here) saying that “the very existence of the NHS stifles competition”, Nuttall tells the BBC:
I said that back in 2010 … I believe that lack of competition within the NHS does stifle … particularly in procurement. We could bring in private companies to buy on behalf of the NHS. The NHS should still be free at the point of delivery … I’ve never said anything else.
Updated
at 7.38am BST
7.27am BST
07:27
Ukip also needs to stick around, Nuttall argues, to make sure Brexit actually happens:
We have to be there to ensure we hold the next prime minister’s feet to the fire to ensure they don’t backslide.
Updated
at 7.44am BST
7.26am BST
07:26
Paul Nuttall, Ukip’s deputy leader and likely contender to stand for the top job after Nigel Farage’s resignation, has been speaking on the Today programme.
Farage really is going this time, Nuttall says:
Nigel has been a brilliant leader … he’s taken us from literally nothing … He really is going out on a high.
But Ukip isn’t going anywhere, he insists – despite essentially achieving its central goal:
Ten years ago Ukip was a single-issue pressure group … That isn’t the case any more.
He says the party should be going after traditional Labour voters, adding that “there is now a clear disconnect” between them and the party.
Updated
at 7.38am BST
7.13am BST
07:13
Jo Johnson – previously backing his brother Boris (and we know these things aren’t guaranteed) – has switched his support to Theresa May:
It's Theresa May. No question. #TM4PM @TheresaMay2016
6.49am BST
06:49
Morning briefing
Claire Phipps
Good morning and welcome to our daily politics, leadership jousts and Brexit fallout coverage. I’m kicking things off with the morning briefing to set you up for the day ahead and steering the live blog until Andrew Sparrow takes his seat.
Do come and chat in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.
The big picture
Voting begins today to eject the first of the five would-be prime ministers from the Conservative leadership running. Tory MPs pick from Theresa May (the favourite by pretty much all reckonings), Andrea Leadsom, Michael Gove, Stephen Crabb and Liam Fox, with the loser evicted from the Big Westminster House without even a chance to sob in the diary room.
Most predictions have Fox as the first to go but what do predictions know?
Leadsom on Monday won the backing of Boris Johnson (he was the future once), who said she had “the zap, the drive, and the determination” to be prime minister and praised her trustworthiness. Because where are you if you can’t trust your closest political chums?
All five candidates on Monday night took part in hustings in front of their colleagues. It wasn’t a public event but, well, people will talk. Here’s what we can glean:
The deadline for voting is 6pm; expect to know who’s soared and who’s stumbled by 7pm. Non-defeated but embarrassed candidates have until Wednesday morning to pull out if they don’t want to go forward to the next knockout round on Thursday.
Less snappily, the Labour leadership … contest? challenge? muddle? … trundles on. Today, the party’s deputy leader, Tom Watson, meets trade union bosses in what is being billed as a last-ditch attempt at a deal that would ease Jeremy Corbyn out of his seat while also keeping Labour as one big happy family. Well, maybe not happy.
At a meeting of the parliamentary Labour party yesterday evening – not attended by Corbyn or his shadow chancellor, John McDonnell – Watson reportedly told MPs the union meeting was a “last throw of the dice” after he had asked Corbyn earlier that day to step down (he didn’t step down).
Former leader Neil Kinnock apparently moved some MPs to tears, telling them Labour could not split:
We are not leaving our party. We are going to fight and we are going to win!
On Monday, Fabian Hamilton, the shadow Europe minister, became the 65th member of the Labour frontbench to resign. Another ex-shadow, Angela Eagle, proved we are way past coded messages with a gauntlet-chucking statement:
I have the support to run and resolve this impasse, and I will do so if Jeremy doesn’t take action soon.
A defiant Corbyn did take action. He made a video: but is it a greatest hits package or a leadership career retrospective?
When we do things together we are very strong. Now is the time to come together.
And because there just aren’t enough leadership spats going on, we’re likely to see some runners and riders emerge to take Ukip into its next phase. Unless Nigel Farage un-resigns again.
Has the UK Brexited yet?
No. And according to the Austrian finance minister, Hans Jörg Schelling, perhaps it never will. Schelling told German newspaper Handelsblatt (here in English):
Britain will remain a member of the EU in the future. In five years, there will still be 28 member states. When you look at all of those [companies] who want to move to the EU, it’s a wakeup call for Britain not to leave in the end.
On the other hand, Alain Juppé, former prime minister of France and the favourite to win next year’s French presidential election, thinks the UK should leave tout de suite:
When you get divorced, you do not get to stay at home. You have to leave the common house.
Juppé also raised the prospect – rejected by the French government but potentially a future flashpoint should he end up in the Elysée Palace – that the Le Touquet agreement, which allows the UK border force to operate in Calais, could be scrapped.
We cannot continue with a system in which on French territory the British authorities decide the people that can be welcomed and can be rejected. That is not acceptable.
You should also know:
The big question
Will the £3 registered Labour supporters who signed up in droves last year – and who are widely credited with placing the crown on Corbyn’s head – be voting in any new leadership contest?
The answer is: not necessarily.
As Rowena Mason and Jessica Elgot report:
Registered supporters have no “ongoing” relationship with the party and would thus have to sign up again, under Labour party rules. There is also no rule on the registered supporter fee remaining at £3, or on the timeframe in which new members should be allowed to sign up, which is a matter for the national executive committee (NEC) to decide.
“It could be free, it could be £50,000 – there’s nothing to say it has to be £3,” a Labour source told the Guardian.
Another source confirmed it was the case that there was “no formal ongoing relationship conferred upon them [registered supporters] because they paid to participate in one leadership election. That only allows them to vote in that leadership election.”
Poll position
A YouGov/Times poll of Conservative party members – who’ll get to pick the next prime minister, lucky things – finds that if, as predicted, the final two are Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom, May would take it at a sprint with a thumping 63% to Leadsom’s 31% (and 6% don’t-knows).
Pitted against the other candidates, May also comes out as the winner: the poll says she’d beat Stephen Crabb by 63 points, Michael Gove by 51 points and Liam Fox by 50 points.
YouGov Tory members poll. Behold utter destruction of Gove's reputation - in under a week, from +41 to -20 pic.twitter.com/PfgQZxvSAv
Diary
Read these
Le Monde carries an interview with Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, in which she says “we do not have the slightest idea of the timing or the outcome of the negotiations between London and the EU”:
Le vrai facteur d’incertitude, c’est, à supposer que l’article 50 soit déclenché, les conditions dans lesquelles le Royaume-Uni effectuera des transactions commerciales avec l’Union européenne (UE). L’hypothèse favorable, c’est un accord à la norvégienne. C’est politiquement difficile, car le pays y aurait toutes les obligations des membres de l’UE, notamment la libre circulation des personnes, mais aucun droit. Mais ce serait le plus raisonnable économiquement …
Mais nous n’avons pas la moindre idée ni du délai, ni de l’issue des négociations entre Londres et l’UE.
Theresa May, in the Daily Mail (scroll down), says as leader she’d get to work on building a Trident replacement right away:
It would be sheer madness to contemplate even for a moment giving up Britain’s independent nuclear deterrent. And there is no room for compromise, and no room for cheese paring.
We need a full fleet of four submarines, capable between them of providing what the military call ‘Continuous At Sea Deterrence’, or permanent, around-the-clock cover. Doing so will send an important message that, as Britain leaves the European Union, we remain committed to working alongside our Nato allies and playing our full role in the world …
A lot of parliamentary business has, for obvious reasons, been put on hold until the leadership election is complete and a new prime minister is in post. But when it comes to the nuclear deterrent, the national interest is clear, the Conservatives are united, and we have waited long enough.
In the Times, Rachel Sylvester examines what a Labour party split would look like:
A former shadow cabinet minister describes this as a ‘clause 1 rather than a clause 4 moment’ because the first line of the party’s constitution defines its purpose as ‘to organise and maintain in parliament and in the country a political Labour party’.
What is fascinating, though, is that a growing number of MPs, peers, candidates and advisers now believe that it is time to start again with a new party of the centre left. Three months ago it was seen as foolish, or even heretical, to suggest such a thing, but since the EU referendum the idea has become mainstream. The Brexit vote has changed everything, with a former cabinet minister talking of the exciting possibilities for a ‘party of the 48%’ … One of those involved behind the scenes [says]: ‘There’s a massive opportunity for a pro-business, socially liberal party in favour of the EU.’
(Hang on – isn’t that … the Liberal Democrats?)
And today’s Guardian long read: Rafael Behr on the inside story of the doomed remain campaign.
Celebrity endorsement of the day
Actor Christoph Waltz – not a Brexit fan – could at least give his hearty backing to the resignation of Nigel Farage:
Of course the head rat would leave the sinking ship.
"Of course the head rat would leave the sinking ship" - Christoph Waltz reacts to @Nige_ Farage stepping down https://t.co/TG3iXxJRb0
Welcome distraction of the day
After a five-year voyage, Nasa’s Juno spacecraft has reached Jupiter and successfully entered its orbit. So humans are capable of great things. Also, perhaps we could move there. #Juxit
The day in a tweet
OK, it’s strictly speaking yesterday in a tweet, but in some parts of the US it’s still 4 July:
Happy Independence Day!! The original #Brexit #happy4thofjuly pic.twitter.com/1s6mqb86hB
If today were a nursery rhyme
It would be There Were Five in the Bed … and they all rolled over and one fell out. Tune in again on Thursday to see what happens when the remaining four all roll over.
And another thing
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Updated
at 7.49am BST