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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/aug/17/uk-jobless-claims-expected-to-rise-following-brexit-vote-business-live
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| UK jobs report shows little sign of immediate Brexit hit - business live | UK jobs report shows little sign of immediate Brexit hit - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 11.42am BST | |
| 11:42 | |
| Outlook brightens for UK household finances | |
| Households were less pessimistic about the outlook for their finances in August according to the latest survey from Markit. | |
| It followed a slump in July as consumers were concerned about the impact the Brexit vote would have on disposable incomes. | |
| Expectations for finances over the next 12 months picked up to 49.8 on Markit’s household finances index in August, from 47.1 in July. Anything below 50 signals deterioration, so households are still feeling cautious. | |
| The highest earners and private sector workers were the most confident about the outlook for their finances. | |
| Jack Kennedy, senior economist at Markit: | |
| The outlook for household finances stabilised in August after last month’s wobble following the Brexit vote. Expectations regarding future finances improved to the highest for five months, while current finances remain under pressure but no more so than the trend seen over the past year-and-a-half. | |
| Concerns seem to have eased in line with the removal of some of the immediate political uncertainty arising from the shock referendum result, combined with a strong monetary policy response from the Bank of England aimed to cushion the economy and head off any lurch towards recession. | |
| 11.11am BST | 11.11am BST |
| 11:11 | 11:11 |
| Jasper Lawler from CMC Markets has this take in this morning’s drop in European markets: | Jasper Lawler from CMC Markets has this take in this morning’s drop in European markets: |
| European markets dipped on Tuesday as profit-taking continued for a second day. Shares of Carlsberg led the declines after a rise in profits at the Dutch brewer fell short of estimates. | European markets dipped on Tuesday as profit-taking continued for a second day. Shares of Carlsberg led the declines after a rise in profits at the Dutch brewer fell short of estimates. |
| The German DAX has fallen to its lowest in over a week after turning positive for the first time this year on Monday. | The German DAX has fallen to its lowest in over a week after turning positive for the first time this year on Monday. |
| Trading was thin on the FTSE 100 with minimal share price movement as traders took stock of a fall in employment claims and another sign that the economy has held its own post-Brexit. | Trading was thin on the FTSE 100 with minimal share price movement as traders took stock of a fall in employment claims and another sign that the economy has held its own post-Brexit. |
| Lawler says Wall Street’s opening is likely to be mixed as traders await the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting in which rates were held. The minutes are due at 7pm UK time. | Lawler says Wall Street’s opening is likely to be mixed as traders await the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting in which rates were held. The minutes are due at 7pm UK time. |
| 10.59am BST | 10.59am BST |
| 10:59 | 10:59 |
| Chris Hare, economist at Investec, brings us back down to earth with this rather gloomy take on the UK jobs market and outlook for households: | Chris Hare, economist at Investec, brings us back down to earth with this rather gloomy take on the UK jobs market and outlook for households: |
| In coming months, we anticipate a hiring slowdown to lead to a sharp slowing in, or even a contraction in, net job creation. We anticipate that to be reflected in gradual rises in the unemployment rate. | In coming months, we anticipate a hiring slowdown to lead to a sharp slowing in, or even a contraction in, net job creation. We anticipate that to be reflected in gradual rises in the unemployment rate. |
| Meanwhile, post-referendum falls in sterling (down over 10% since 23 June) is set to squeeze household real take-home pay. | Meanwhile, post-referendum falls in sterling (down over 10% since 23 June) is set to squeeze household real take-home pay. |
| Over time, this double-whammy of lower jobs growth and higher inflation is set to weigh on household income and spending growth. If we are right (and we hope to be surprised to the upside) then this new dynamic might make today’s labour market data look like a relic of a bygone era. | Over time, this double-whammy of lower jobs growth and higher inflation is set to weigh on household income and spending growth. If we are right (and we hope to be surprised to the upside) then this new dynamic might make today’s labour market data look like a relic of a bygone era. |
| 10.48am BST | 10.48am BST |
| 10:48 | 10:48 |
| Here is our full story on Admiral, which is dragging the FTSE 100 lower with an 8.5% drop in the share price. | Here is our full story on Admiral, which is dragging the FTSE 100 lower with an 8.5% drop in the share price. |
| Related: Admiral blames low interest rates for drop in solvency ratio | Related: Admiral blames low interest rates for drop in solvency ratio |
| 10.41am BST | 10.41am BST |
| 10:41 | 10:41 |
| The upbeat jobs report has failed to lift the pound, which remains pretty much where it was before the figures were published at $1.3019. | The upbeat jobs report has failed to lift the pound, which remains pretty much where it was before the figures were published at $1.3019. |
| The FTSE 100 is also underwhelmed, and European markets are now in the red after opening slightly higher. | The FTSE 100 is also underwhelmed, and European markets are now in the red after opening slightly higher. |
| 10.28am BST | 10.28am BST |
| 10:28 | 10:28 |
| As John Philpott, expert on the labour market and director of The Jobs Economist, points out, the better-than-expected figures could be the calm before the storm... | As John Philpott, expert on the labour market and director of The Jobs Economist, points out, the better-than-expected figures could be the calm before the storm... |
| Frustratingly, most of these figures end just at the point at which the UK decided to make its historic change of political and economic direction. | Frustratingly, most of these figures end just at the point at which the UK decided to make its historic change of political and economic direction. |
| It’s thus too early to tell whether the jobs market will easily shrug-off the shock of Brexit or instead that these latest figures merely mark the calm before the storm that many economists fear could add up to 500,000 to the jobless count. | It’s thus too early to tell whether the jobs market will easily shrug-off the shock of Brexit or instead that these latest figures merely mark the calm before the storm that many economists fear could add up to 500,000 to the jobless count. |
| 10.20am BST | 10.20am BST |
| 10:20 | 10:20 |
| In the run up to the referendum the jobs market was strengthening, and in better shape than expected. | In the run up to the referendum the jobs market was strengthening, and in better shape than expected. |
| “What pre-Brexit jitters?”, asks Alan Clarke, economist at Scotiabank: | “What pre-Brexit jitters?”, asks Alan Clarke, economist at Scotiabank: |
| The UK labour report was much stronger than we expected and surprisingly robust in the face of pre-referendum uncertainty. | The UK labour report was much stronger than we expected and surprisingly robust in the face of pre-referendum uncertainty. |
| Firms stepped up hiring before the referendum it seems - in stark contrast to the pre-General Election experience. | Firms stepped up hiring before the referendum it seems - in stark contrast to the pre-General Election experience. |
| The acid test will be the next few months to see if hiring stalled in the aftermath of the vote. I suspect that will take longer to show up, but then again, I was expecting pre-Brexit jitters to show up today, so what do I know? | The acid test will be the next few months to see if hiring stalled in the aftermath of the vote. I suspect that will take longer to show up, but then again, I was expecting pre-Brexit jitters to show up today, so what do I know? |
| 10.16am BST | 10.16am BST |
| 10:16 | 10:16 |
| Key points from the ONS jobs report | Key points from the ONS jobs report |
| In the three months ending June: | In the three months ending June: |
| 9.48am BST | 9.48am BST |
| 09:48 | 09:48 |
| The surprise fall in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in July suggests the Brexit vote did not deal a major blow to employer confidence, in the immediate aftermath at least. | The surprise fall in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in July suggests the Brexit vote did not deal a major blow to employer confidence, in the immediate aftermath at least. |
| A total of 763,600 claimed jobless benefits last month, 8,600 fewer than in June. | A total of 763,600 claimed jobless benefits last month, 8,600 fewer than in June. |
| It was the first monthly fall since February 2016. | It was the first monthly fall since February 2016. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.59am BST | at 9.59am BST |
| 9.41am BST | 9.41am BST |
| 09:41 | 09:41 |
| Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9% | Unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9% |
| The labour market report from the Office for National Statistics also showed the ILO unemployment rate was unchanged in the three months ending June, at 4.9% (as expected). | The labour market report from the Office for National Statistics also showed the ILO unemployment rate was unchanged in the three months ending June, at 4.9% (as expected). |
| This measure relates to the period before the EU referendum on 23 June. Wage growth including bonuses ticked up to 2.4% over the period from 2.3% over the previous three months - bang in line with expectations. | This measure relates to the period before the EU referendum on 23 June. Wage growth including bonuses ticked up to 2.4% over the period from 2.3% over the previous three months - bang in line with expectations. |
| Excluding bonuses, wages increased by 2.3%, up from 2.2%. | Excluding bonuses, wages increased by 2.3%, up from 2.2%. |
| Related: UK unemployment claimant count falls after Brexit | Related: UK unemployment claimant count falls after Brexit |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.42am BST | at 9.42am BST |
| 9.34am BST | 9.34am BST |
| 09:34 | 09:34 |
| UK jobless claims in surprise fall | UK jobless claims in surprise fall |
| A big surprise in the labour market data: the number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell by 8,600 in July, a month after the Brexit vote. | A big surprise in the labour market data: the number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell by 8,600 in July, a month after the Brexit vote. |
| Economists were expecting a rise of 9,500. | Economists were expecting a rise of 9,500. |
| No sign yet then that the Brexit vote is hurting the jobs market... | No sign yet then that the Brexit vote is hurting the jobs market... |
| We will bring all the reaction. | We will bring all the reaction. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 9.35am BST | at 9.35am BST |
| 9.14am BST | 9.14am BST |
| 09:14 | 09:14 |
| Pound hovers above $1.30 | Pound hovers above $1.30 |
| The pound is managing to hold on above the $1.30 mark, although it is down 0.2%. It is currently trading at $1.3014. | The pound is managing to hold on above the $1.30 mark, although it is down 0.2%. It is currently trading at $1.3014. |
| Sterling rebounded on Tuesday following a surprise rise in the UK annual inflation rate to 0.6% in July from 0.5% in June, which in theory makes it less likely that the Bank of England will need to further cut rates. | Sterling rebounded on Tuesday following a surprise rise in the UK annual inflation rate to 0.6% in July from 0.5% in June, which in theory makes it less likely that the Bank of England will need to further cut rates. |
| Economists said however the Bank was likely to ignore a temporary rise in inflation and pump more money into the economy in a bid to limit the slowdown expected following the Brexit vote. | Economists said however the Bank was likely to ignore a temporary rise in inflation and pump more money into the economy in a bid to limit the slowdown expected following the Brexit vote. |
| 9.00am BST | 9.00am BST |
| 09:00 | 09:00 |
| Firms advising on tax avoidance could face large fines | Firms advising on tax avoidance could face large fines |
| The government has revealed plans to clamp down on accountants, lawyers and consultants who advise clients on how to aggressively avoid tax. | The government has revealed plans to clamp down on accountants, lawyers and consultants who advise clients on how to aggressively avoid tax. |
| Advisers whose schemes are defeated in the courts might pay a fine of up to 100% of the money lost to the taxpayer. | Advisers whose schemes are defeated in the courts might pay a fine of up to 100% of the money lost to the taxpayer. |
| Our full story here: | Our full story here: |
| Related: Firms giving advice on aggressive tax avoidance could face large fines | Related: Firms giving advice on aggressive tax avoidance could face large fines |
| 8.51am BST | 8.51am BST |
| 08:51 | 08:51 |
| Admiral Group is the biggest FTSE 100 faller this morning by quite some margin. | Admiral Group is the biggest FTSE 100 faller this morning by quite some margin. |
| Shares are down more than 7% after the insurer issued a number of warnings falling Britain’s decision to quit the EU. | Shares are down more than 7% after the insurer issued a number of warnings falling Britain’s decision to quit the EU. |
| Admiral said its solvency ratio had been damaged by the vote, and warned about a weaker economic outlook and interest and exchange rate volatility. | Admiral said its solvency ratio had been damaged by the vote, and warned about a weaker economic outlook and interest and exchange rate volatility. |
| 8.39am BST | 8.39am BST |
| 08:39 | 08:39 |
| US rate rise expectations mount | US rate rise expectations mount |
| In the US, comments by Fed policymakers have brought forward expectations of a interest rate rise. | In the US, comments by Fed policymakers have brought forward expectations of a interest rate rise. |
| The New York Fed President William Dudley said it was “possible” the central bank could hike rates at its next policy meeting in September as the US jobs market strengthens. | The New York Fed President William Dudley said it was “possible” the central bank could hike rates at its next policy meeting in September as the US jobs market strengthens. |
| He told the Fox Business Network: | He told the Fox Business Network: |
| We’re edging closer towards the point in time where it will be appropriate I think to raise interest rates further. | We’re edging closer towards the point in time where it will be appropriate I think to raise interest rates further. |
| The labor market is getting tighter and we’re starting to see signs of wage gains starting to accelerate, so I think we’re getting closer to that point in time when it will be appropriate to actually raise short-term rates again. | The labor market is getting tighter and we’re starting to see signs of wage gains starting to accelerate, so I think we’re getting closer to that point in time when it will be appropriate to actually raise short-term rates again. |
| Meanwhile Dennis Lockhart, President of the Atlanta Fed, said the US economy was potentially strong enough to withstand two rate rises before the end of 2016. Addressing the Rotary Club of Knoxville, he said: | Meanwhile Dennis Lockhart, President of the Atlanta Fed, said the US economy was potentially strong enough to withstand two rate rises before the end of 2016. Addressing the Rotary Club of Knoxville, he said: |
| I would not rule out September. If the meeting were today I think the economic data would justify a serious discussion. It’s conceivable we could have two rate increases this year. | I would not rule out September. If the meeting were today I think the economic data would justify a serious discussion. It’s conceivable we could have two rate increases this year. |
| Early indications of third-quarter GDP growth suggest a rebound. I don’t believe momentum has stalled. I remain confident about prospects in the second half of 2016 and 2017. | Early indications of third-quarter GDP growth suggest a rebound. I don’t believe momentum has stalled. I remain confident about prospects in the second half of 2016 and 2017. |
| Before the comments, market expectations of a US rate hike before the end of 2016 had declined. But according to CMC Markets, Dudley’s comments saw expectations of a move in December climb from 39.1% to 50%. | Before the comments, market expectations of a US rate hike before the end of 2016 had declined. But according to CMC Markets, Dudley’s comments saw expectations of a move in December climb from 39.1% to 50%. |
| At 7pm UK time, minutes of the latest meeting of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be published. | At 7pm UK time, minutes of the latest meeting of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be published. |
| 8.06am BST | 8.06am BST |
| 08:06 | 08:06 |
| European markets open higher | European markets open higher |
| The FTSE 100 is up 23 points or 0.3% in early trading, at 6,916. | The FTSE 100 is up 23 points or 0.3% in early trading, at 6,916. |
| 7.50am BST | 7.50am BST |
| 07:50 | 07:50 |
| The FTSE 100 is expected to open slightly higher this morning: | The FTSE 100 is expected to open slightly higher this morning: |
| Our European opening calls:$FTSE 6904 up 10$DAX 10687 up 10$CAC 4465 up 5$IBEX 8616 down 6$MIB 16791 down 2 | Our European opening calls:$FTSE 6904 up 10$DAX 10687 up 10$CAC 4465 up 5$IBEX 8616 down 6$MIB 16791 down 2 |
| 7.47am BST | 7.47am BST |
| 07:47 | 07:47 |
| The agenda: UK jobless claims to offer Brexit insight | The agenda: UK jobless claims to offer Brexit insight |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| The spotlight is on the UK jobs market today. At 9.30am the Office for National Statistics will publish the latest unemployment data. | The spotlight is on the UK jobs market today. At 9.30am the Office for National Statistics will publish the latest unemployment data. |
| Much of the data, including the ILO unemployment rate and total number of people out of work, will relate to the three months ending June - before the 23 June EU referendum. | Much of the data, including the ILO unemployment rate and total number of people out of work, will relate to the three months ending June - before the 23 June EU referendum. |
| But the claimant count data will reveal how many people claimed unemployment benefit it July, a month after the Brexit vote. | But the claimant count data will reveal how many people claimed unemployment benefit it July, a month after the Brexit vote. |
| Economists polled by Reuters are expecting a 9,500 jump in claims last month, following a rise of 400 in June. | Economists polled by Reuters are expecting a 9,500 jump in claims last month, following a rise of 400 in June. |
| On the ILO measure, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9% in the three months ending June. Wage growth (including bonuses) is expected to pick up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. | On the ILO measure, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9% in the three months ending June. Wage growth (including bonuses) is expected to pick up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. |