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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/aug/17/uk-jobless-claims-expected-to-rise-following-brexit-vote-business-live
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| UK jobs report shows little sign of immediate Brexit hit - business live | UK jobs report shows little sign of immediate Brexit hit - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 1.40pm BST | |
| 13:40 | |
| UK working age households are still £400 a year worse off than before the 2008 financial crisis according to Resolution Foundation. | |
| The thinktank warns that a near “lost decade” in household incomes is in danger of being extended by a triple whammy of slower economic growth, higher inflation, and benefit cuts. | |
| Resolution’s analysis of ONS figures found that working age households have been the ones to suffer. | |
| Adam Corlett, economic analyst at Resolution Foundation: | |
| Despite welcome income growth in 2015-16, the typical non-retired household remains some £400 a year worse-off than before the financial crisis of 2008. | |
| We’re closing in on a lost decade for working-age households, which leaves the typical family around £8,500 a year poorer than would have been the case had we maintained pre-crisis levels of income growth. | |
| The concern now is that lower income working-age households risk experiencing a ‘triple whammy’ of income recovery shocks as growth slows in the aftermath of the EU referendum vote, inflation picks up and cuts such as the four-year freeze on working-age benefits start to bite. This risks not only delaying the recovery for these families, but flipping it into reverse. | |
| 1.27pm BST | |
| 13:27 | |
| Gold prices have slipped following those hawkish comments from Fed policymakers William Dudley and Dennis Lockhart. | |
| Both said a September interest rate rise was possible, sending spot gold down 0.2% at $1,343 an ounce, while US gold was down 0.6% at $1,348.60 an ounce. Rate rises tend to mean a stronger dollar, and a stronger dollar tends to signal weaker gold prices. | |
| 1.06pm BST | 1.06pm BST |
| 13:06 | 13:06 |
| Uber, the taxi company that operates through an app, is legally challenging Transport for London’s plans to force drivers to take a written English test. | Uber, the taxi company that operates through an app, is legally challenging Transport for London’s plans to force drivers to take a written English test. |
| Our full story here: | Our full story here: |
| Related: Uber takes TfL to high court over English written test | Related: Uber takes TfL to high court over English written test |
| 12.11pm BST | 12.11pm BST |
| 12:11 | 12:11 |
| Andrew Tyrie, Conservative MP and chairman of the Treasury select committee, is seeking a review of the government’s sale of some of its stake in bailed out bank RBS. | Andrew Tyrie, Conservative MP and chairman of the Treasury select committee, is seeking a review of the government’s sale of some of its stake in bailed out bank RBS. |
| Specifically, Tyrie wants the National Audit Office to look without delay into the advice given by UK Financial Investments - the body set up to manage the taxpayer’s stakes in bailed out banks - to the government before the first sale of shares in 2015. | Specifically, Tyrie wants the National Audit Office to look without delay into the advice given by UK Financial Investments - the body set up to manage the taxpayer’s stakes in bailed out banks - to the government before the first sale of shares in 2015. |
| Tyrie says: | Tyrie says: |
| Parliament and the public will want reassurance that the Chancellor’s decision to sell the first tranche of shares in RBS in August 2015 secured the best value for money for the taxpayer, and was not influenced by political expediency. | Parliament and the public will want reassurance that the Chancellor’s decision to sell the first tranche of shares in RBS in August 2015 secured the best value for money for the taxpayer, and was not influenced by political expediency. |
| UKFI was created with the intention to ensure that state and partly state-owned banks are run, and seen to be run, free from government interference. There is a risk that UKFI is being used as a fig leaf to disguise a high level of Treasury control. UKFI’s advice on this sale is therefore of considerable public interest. | UKFI was created with the intention to ensure that state and partly state-owned banks are run, and seen to be run, free from government interference. There is a risk that UKFI is being used as a fig leaf to disguise a high level of Treasury control. UKFI’s advice on this sale is therefore of considerable public interest. |
| A full and thorough review of the sale should not be left any longer. | A full and thorough review of the sale should not be left any longer. |
| 11.42am BST | 11.42am BST |
| 11:42 | 11:42 |
| Outlook brightens for UK household finances | Outlook brightens for UK household finances |
| Households were less pessimistic about the outlook for their finances in August according to the latest survey from Markit. | Households were less pessimistic about the outlook for their finances in August according to the latest survey from Markit. |
| It followed a slump in July as consumers were concerned about the impact the Brexit vote would have on disposable incomes. | It followed a slump in July as consumers were concerned about the impact the Brexit vote would have on disposable incomes. |
| Expectations for finances over the next 12 months picked up to 49.8 on Markit’s household finances index in August, from 47.1 in July. Anything below 50 signals deterioration, so households are still feeling cautious. | Expectations for finances over the next 12 months picked up to 49.8 on Markit’s household finances index in August, from 47.1 in July. Anything below 50 signals deterioration, so households are still feeling cautious. |
| The highest earners and private sector workers were the most confident about the outlook for their finances. | The highest earners and private sector workers were the most confident about the outlook for their finances. |
| Jack Kennedy, senior economist at Markit: | Jack Kennedy, senior economist at Markit: |
| The outlook for household finances stabilised in August after last month’s wobble following the Brexit vote. Expectations regarding future finances improved to the highest for five months, while current finances remain under pressure but no more so than the trend seen over the past year-and-a-half. | The outlook for household finances stabilised in August after last month’s wobble following the Brexit vote. Expectations regarding future finances improved to the highest for five months, while current finances remain under pressure but no more so than the trend seen over the past year-and-a-half. |
| Concerns seem to have eased in line with the removal of some of the immediate political uncertainty arising from the shock referendum result, combined with a strong monetary policy response from the Bank of England aimed to cushion the economy and head off any lurch towards recession. | Concerns seem to have eased in line with the removal of some of the immediate political uncertainty arising from the shock referendum result, combined with a strong monetary policy response from the Bank of England aimed to cushion the economy and head off any lurch towards recession. |
| 11.11am BST | 11.11am BST |
| 11:11 | 11:11 |
| Jasper Lawler from CMC Markets has this take in this morning’s drop in European markets: | Jasper Lawler from CMC Markets has this take in this morning’s drop in European markets: |
| European markets dipped on Tuesday as profit-taking continued for a second day. Shares of Carlsberg led the declines after a rise in profits at the Dutch brewer fell short of estimates. | European markets dipped on Tuesday as profit-taking continued for a second day. Shares of Carlsberg led the declines after a rise in profits at the Dutch brewer fell short of estimates. |
| The German DAX has fallen to its lowest in over a week after turning positive for the first time this year on Monday. | The German DAX has fallen to its lowest in over a week after turning positive for the first time this year on Monday. |
| Trading was thin on the FTSE 100 with minimal share price movement as traders took stock of a fall in employment claims and another sign that the economy has held its own post-Brexit. | Trading was thin on the FTSE 100 with minimal share price movement as traders took stock of a fall in employment claims and another sign that the economy has held its own post-Brexit. |
| Lawler says Wall Street’s opening is likely to be mixed as traders await the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting in which rates were held. The minutes are due at 7pm UK time. | Lawler says Wall Street’s opening is likely to be mixed as traders await the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting in which rates were held. The minutes are due at 7pm UK time. |
| 10.59am BST | 10.59am BST |
| 10:59 | 10:59 |
| Chris Hare, economist at Investec, brings us back down to earth with this rather gloomy take on the UK jobs market and outlook for households: | Chris Hare, economist at Investec, brings us back down to earth with this rather gloomy take on the UK jobs market and outlook for households: |
| In coming months, we anticipate a hiring slowdown to lead to a sharp slowing in, or even a contraction in, net job creation. We anticipate that to be reflected in gradual rises in the unemployment rate. | In coming months, we anticipate a hiring slowdown to lead to a sharp slowing in, or even a contraction in, net job creation. We anticipate that to be reflected in gradual rises in the unemployment rate. |
| Meanwhile, post-referendum falls in sterling (down over 10% since 23 June) is set to squeeze household real take-home pay. | Meanwhile, post-referendum falls in sterling (down over 10% since 23 June) is set to squeeze household real take-home pay. |
| Over time, this double-whammy of lower jobs growth and higher inflation is set to weigh on household income and spending growth. If we are right (and we hope to be surprised to the upside) then this new dynamic might make today’s labour market data look like a relic of a bygone era. | Over time, this double-whammy of lower jobs growth and higher inflation is set to weigh on household income and spending growth. If we are right (and we hope to be surprised to the upside) then this new dynamic might make today’s labour market data look like a relic of a bygone era. |
| 10.48am BST | 10.48am BST |
| 10:48 | 10:48 |
| Here is our full story on Admiral, which is dragging the FTSE 100 lower with an 8.5% drop in the share price. | Here is our full story on Admiral, which is dragging the FTSE 100 lower with an 8.5% drop in the share price. |
| Related: Admiral blames low interest rates for drop in solvency ratio | Related: Admiral blames low interest rates for drop in solvency ratio |
| 10.41am BST | 10.41am BST |
| 10:41 | 10:41 |
| The upbeat jobs report has failed to lift the pound, which remains pretty much where it was before the figures were published at $1.3019. | The upbeat jobs report has failed to lift the pound, which remains pretty much where it was before the figures were published at $1.3019. |
| The FTSE 100 is also underwhelmed, and European markets are now in the red after opening slightly higher. | The FTSE 100 is also underwhelmed, and European markets are now in the red after opening slightly higher. |
| 10.28am BST | 10.28am BST |
| 10:28 | 10:28 |
| As John Philpott, expert on the labour market and director of The Jobs Economist, points out, the better-than-expected figures could be the calm before the storm... | As John Philpott, expert on the labour market and director of The Jobs Economist, points out, the better-than-expected figures could be the calm before the storm... |
| Frustratingly, most of these figures end just at the point at which the UK decided to make its historic change of political and economic direction. | Frustratingly, most of these figures end just at the point at which the UK decided to make its historic change of political and economic direction. |
| It’s thus too early to tell whether the jobs market will easily shrug-off the shock of Brexit or instead that these latest figures merely mark the calm before the storm that many economists fear could add up to 500,000 to the jobless count. | It’s thus too early to tell whether the jobs market will easily shrug-off the shock of Brexit or instead that these latest figures merely mark the calm before the storm that many economists fear could add up to 500,000 to the jobless count. |
| 10.20am BST | 10.20am BST |
| 10:20 | 10:20 |
| In the run up to the referendum the jobs market was strengthening, and in better shape than expected. | In the run up to the referendum the jobs market was strengthening, and in better shape than expected. |
| “What pre-Brexit jitters?”, asks Alan Clarke, economist at Scotiabank: | “What pre-Brexit jitters?”, asks Alan Clarke, economist at Scotiabank: |
| The UK labour report was much stronger than we expected and surprisingly robust in the face of pre-referendum uncertainty. | The UK labour report was much stronger than we expected and surprisingly robust in the face of pre-referendum uncertainty. |
| Firms stepped up hiring before the referendum it seems - in stark contrast to the pre-General Election experience. | Firms stepped up hiring before the referendum it seems - in stark contrast to the pre-General Election experience. |
| The acid test will be the next few months to see if hiring stalled in the aftermath of the vote. I suspect that will take longer to show up, but then again, I was expecting pre-Brexit jitters to show up today, so what do I know? | The acid test will be the next few months to see if hiring stalled in the aftermath of the vote. I suspect that will take longer to show up, but then again, I was expecting pre-Brexit jitters to show up today, so what do I know? |
| 10.16am BST | 10.16am BST |
| 10:16 | 10:16 |
| Key points from the ONS jobs report | Key points from the ONS jobs report |
| In the three months ending June: | In the three months ending June: |