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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/aug/18/trump-says-hell-be-known-as-mr-brexit-despite-poor-poll-showing-politics-live
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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| Trump says he'll be known as 'Mr Brexit' despite poor poll showing – politics live | Trump says he'll be known as 'Mr Brexit' despite poor poll showing – politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 3.37pm BST | |
| 15:37 | |
| This is pretty good from Arianna Huffington, drawing a line from polling trutherism to climate change denialism: | |
| July: hottest month ever.Says who?Thermometers.Which ones?All of them.https://t.co/v76Dg6RIsh | |
| 3.27pm BST | |
| 15:27 | |
| For four months, Larry Sabato and his cohorts at the University of Virginia’s center for politics have been forecasting a 347-191 electoral college victory for Hillary Clinton. This morning they have changed their forecast to 348-190 for Clinton, sensing a Democratic drift in the second congressional district in Nebraska, which is one of two states that splits its electoral votes. Do they know what they’re talking about? You be the judge. Here’s a bit from their analysis: | |
| We are putting Clinton over the 270-mark in the Electoral College (273 electoral votes, to be precise) with states we have classified as Likely Democratic or Safe Democratic. Clinton had previously been at 269 in those categories. To us, this means that Trump has to find a way not just to sweep all Republican states and the remaining states classified Leans Democratic (see our map, below) but to dislodge at least one Likely or Safe Democratic state. Anything can happen over the next dozen weeks, but we wouldn’t recommend betting your children’s college funds on a Trump administration. | |
| The Sabato map does not detect any tossup states. That judgment is not unique among pros. The map almost exactly resembles FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus model, which bakes in polling numbers with other fundamentals such as economic stats and historical data. | |
| Here’s a basic version of the map (but visit Sabato’s site for subtleties and analysis): | |
| If you like electoral college maps but haven’t discovered 270towin.com yet, visit them, it’s fun. | |
| Update: also read James Hohman in the Washington Post on why Florida is MR BREXIT!’s “best swing state”: | |
| Florida is the only battleground that moved in Trump’s direction after both conventions. Seven states were surveyed by NBC, the Wall Street Journal and Marist before and after. In North Carolina, Trump went from down 6 points to down 9 points; in Virginia, from down 9 to down 13; in Colorado, from down 8 to down 14. In Florida, he went from down 7 to down 5. | |
| Down 5 points is obviously not a good place to be, and the last poll to show Trump ahead in Florida came out in early July. But it’s one of many data points that underscore his relativestrength down there. | |
| Updated | |
| at 3.40pm BST | |
| 3.11pm BST | 3.11pm BST |
| 15:11 | 15:11 |
| Which is more predictive of electoral success, crowd size or polling? A debate on the question broke out on Fox News. Dana Perino, one of George W Bush’s press secretaries, points out that in the very most recent presidential election, Republicans were saying the polls were wrong, but they weren’t. To say that her voice of reason falls on deaf ears fails to capture the mystification that crosses her face: | Which is more predictive of electoral success, crowd size or polling? A debate on the question broke out on Fox News. Dana Perino, one of George W Bush’s press secretaries, points out that in the very most recent presidential election, Republicans were saying the polls were wrong, but they weren’t. To say that her voice of reason falls on deaf ears fails to capture the mystification that crosses her face: |
| Shorter @DanaPerino: That's not how any of this works... (h/t @KatieSimmons_17) pic.twitter.com/si8gk6yjRi | Shorter @DanaPerino: That's not how any of this works... (h/t @KatieSimmons_17) pic.twitter.com/si8gk6yjRi |
| In 1984, the Mondale campaign talked up the shockingly large crowds he was drawing as proof the polls were wrong pic.twitter.com/aM6PVktoeD | |
| Updated | |
| at 3.41pm BST | |
| 2.09pm BST | 2.09pm BST |
| 14:09 | 14:09 |
| Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. | Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. |
| Donald Trump has announced on Twitter that he will soon be known as “MR. BREXIT!” It’s unclear what he means as he is not an EU member country. Here’s the tweet: | Donald Trump has announced on Twitter that he will soon be known as “MR. BREXIT!” It’s unclear what he means as he is not an EU member country. Here’s the tweet: |
| They will soon be calling me MR. BREXIT! | They will soon be calling me MR. BREXIT! |
| Trump may mean that, as the Brexit vote confounded late-stage polls seeming to show momentum in the direction of Remain, he will make fools of pollsters currently showing him losing by a lot everywhere. Which polls? You know the answer: all of them. (Seriously: all of them.) | Trump may mean that, as the Brexit vote confounded late-stage polls seeming to show momentum in the direction of Remain, he will make fools of pollsters currently showing him losing by a lot everywhere. Which polls? You know the answer: all of them. (Seriously: all of them.) |
| My god. This is the funniest video I've seen in a long time. pic.twitter.com/lcKskD8NKh | My god. This is the funniest video I've seen in a long time. pic.twitter.com/lcKskD8NKh |
| Explainer: Mr. Brexit was the endearingly oafish next-door neighbor in Mary Poppins, Trump's favorite movie. https://t.co/ErCCLU5hp4 | Explainer: Mr. Brexit was the endearingly oafish next-door neighbor in Mary Poppins, Trump's favorite movie. https://t.co/ErCCLU5hp4 |
| You misspelled Bullshit. And we've been calling you that for a while now. https://t.co/5G7eeE7Upa | You misspelled Bullshit. And we've been calling you that for a while now. https://t.co/5G7eeE7Upa |
| They will soon be calling me Dr. BREXIT. pic.twitter.com/R0FKk5flJQ | They will soon be calling me Dr. BREXIT. pic.twitter.com/R0FKk5flJQ |
| ‘Trump is a nut’ | ‘Trump is a nut’ |
| Classic @stuartpstevens on what Trump's hiring of Bannon means for Republicans (https://t.co/pW1BwXyHe9): pic.twitter.com/vyWaoW2kIi | Classic @stuartpstevens on what Trump's hiring of Bannon means for Republicans (https://t.co/pW1BwXyHe9): pic.twitter.com/vyWaoW2kIi |
| Hillary Clinton plans to meet today in New York with leading law enforcement officers from around the country, the Washington Post reports. | Hillary Clinton plans to meet today in New York with leading law enforcement officers from around the country, the Washington Post reports. |
| Thank you for reading and please join us in the comments. | Thank you for reading and please join us in the comments. |