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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/aug/18/trump-says-hell-be-known-as-mr-brexit-despite-poor-poll-showing-politics-live
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| Trump says he'll be known as 'Mr Brexit' despite poor poll showing – politics live | Trump says he'll be known as 'Mr Brexit' despite poor poll showing – politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 4.21pm BST | |
| 16:21 | |
| Obama to travel to China to promote TPP | |
| President Obama will travel to China and Laos September 2-9, 2016, the White House has announced. | |
| On the agenda, according to the White House statement: promoting the Trans-Pacific Partnership: | |
| This trip will highlight the President’s ongoing commitment to the G-20 as the premier forum for international economic cooperation as well as the U.S. Rebalance to Asia and the Pacific. [...] | |
| This visit also will support the President’s efforts to expand opportunities for American businesses and workers to sell their products in some of the world’s fastest-growing markets. Central to this effort is the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the high-standards trade agreement that will unlock key markets to American exports and cement America’s economic leadership in the Asia-Pacific | |
| 4.18pm BST | |
| 16:18 | |
| Sanders won't disclose personal finances | |
| Bernie Sanders has a new deadline for filing his personal financial disclosure: never. | |
| As a presidential candidate, Sanders requested and received two extensions to a personal financial disclosure filing deadline (MR BREXIT! bragged about meeting the deadline). Now that Sanders is not a candidate, he has no plans to make the disclosure, a spokesman told the Center for Public integrity: | |
| Now that Sanders’ second extension has expired, spokesman Michael Briggs confirmed to the Center for Public Integrity that the senator won’t file a presidential campaign personal financial disclosure after all. | |
| Click here to read the Center for Public Integrity version of this story. | |
| “We were told that since the senator no longer is a candidate there was no requirement to file,” Briggs said. | |
| What do you think – should Sanders make the disclosure? Is he hiding something? Is it any of our business? Earlier this month he closed on a $575,000 vacation home in Vermont. Is that too much for a populist hero? | |
| The Guardian’s Sabrina Siddiqui reports today on concerns of former Sanders supporters that their agenda will be shelved now that Clinton is courting Republicans. From the piece: | |
| Her concern, like many Sanders supporters, is whether his radical platform taking on Wall Street and corporate interests, and offering free college tuition, will be discarded as she courts Republicans. | |
| Bower is “terrified” of a Trump presidency but voiced concerns with Clinton’s balancing act. | |
| “I think she’s saying what she needs to say to pull people from Trump, which is a good thing,” she said, “but I don’t know when she’s being sincere and when she’s just doing what she needs to in order to get elected. | |
| “I just feel like she’s been in the system for so long, how could she not be part of the system?” | |
| Read the full piece here: | |
| Related: As Clinton woos Republicans, Sanders' faithfuls fear they will be forgotten | |
| 3.58pm BST | |
| 15:58 | |
| This guy’s in the tank for Clinton: | |
| Hillary's first job was fighting for social justice at @ChildDefender—it's one of the things I admire most about her https://t.co/txYVVcgKyR | |
| Mike Pence was in Nevada Wednesday: | |
| Great crowd in Henderson, NV talking about how @realDonaldTrump and I will Make America Safe Again! #TrumpPence16 pic.twitter.com/4OiFKzWB5Z | |
| Updated | |
| at 3.59pm BST | |
| 3.37pm BST | 3.37pm BST |
| 15:37 | 15:37 |
| This is pretty good from Arianna Huffington, drawing a line from polling trutherism to climate change denialism: | This is pretty good from Arianna Huffington, drawing a line from polling trutherism to climate change denialism: |
| July: hottest month ever.Says who?Thermometers.Which ones?All of them.https://t.co/v76Dg6RIsh | July: hottest month ever.Says who?Thermometers.Which ones?All of them.https://t.co/v76Dg6RIsh |
| 3.27pm BST | 3.27pm BST |
| 15:27 | 15:27 |
| For four months, Larry Sabato and his cohorts at the University of Virginia’s center for politics have been forecasting a 347-191 electoral college victory for Hillary Clinton. This morning they have changed their forecast to 348-190 for Clinton, sensing a Democratic drift in the second congressional district in Nebraska, which is one of two states that splits its electoral votes. Do they know what they’re talking about? You be the judge. Here’s a bit from their analysis: | For four months, Larry Sabato and his cohorts at the University of Virginia’s center for politics have been forecasting a 347-191 electoral college victory for Hillary Clinton. This morning they have changed their forecast to 348-190 for Clinton, sensing a Democratic drift in the second congressional district in Nebraska, which is one of two states that splits its electoral votes. Do they know what they’re talking about? You be the judge. Here’s a bit from their analysis: |
| We are putting Clinton over the 270-mark in the Electoral College (273 electoral votes, to be precise) with states we have classified as Likely Democratic or Safe Democratic. Clinton had previously been at 269 in those categories. To us, this means that Trump has to find a way not just to sweep all Republican states and the remaining states classified Leans Democratic (see our map, below) but to dislodge at least one Likely or Safe Democratic state. Anything can happen over the next dozen weeks, but we wouldn’t recommend betting your children’s college funds on a Trump administration. | We are putting Clinton over the 270-mark in the Electoral College (273 electoral votes, to be precise) with states we have classified as Likely Democratic or Safe Democratic. Clinton had previously been at 269 in those categories. To us, this means that Trump has to find a way not just to sweep all Republican states and the remaining states classified Leans Democratic (see our map, below) but to dislodge at least one Likely or Safe Democratic state. Anything can happen over the next dozen weeks, but we wouldn’t recommend betting your children’s college funds on a Trump administration. |
| The Sabato map does not detect any tossup states. That judgment is not unique among pros. The map almost exactly resembles FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus model, which bakes in polling numbers with other fundamentals such as economic stats and historical data. | The Sabato map does not detect any tossup states. That judgment is not unique among pros. The map almost exactly resembles FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus model, which bakes in polling numbers with other fundamentals such as economic stats and historical data. |
| Here’s a basic version of the map (but visit Sabato’s site for subtleties and analysis): | Here’s a basic version of the map (but visit Sabato’s site for subtleties and analysis): |
| If you like electoral college maps but haven’t discovered 270towin.com yet, visit them, it’s fun. | If you like electoral college maps but haven’t discovered 270towin.com yet, visit them, it’s fun. |
| Update: also read James Hohman in the Washington Post on why Florida is MR BREXIT!’s “best swing state”: | Update: also read James Hohman in the Washington Post on why Florida is MR BREXIT!’s “best swing state”: |
| Florida is the only battleground that moved in Trump’s direction after both conventions. Seven states were surveyed by NBC, the Wall Street Journal and Marist before and after. In North Carolina, Trump went from down 6 points to down 9 points; in Virginia, from down 9 to down 13; in Colorado, from down 8 to down 14. In Florida, he went from down 7 to down 5. | Florida is the only battleground that moved in Trump’s direction after both conventions. Seven states were surveyed by NBC, the Wall Street Journal and Marist before and after. In North Carolina, Trump went from down 6 points to down 9 points; in Virginia, from down 9 to down 13; in Colorado, from down 8 to down 14. In Florida, he went from down 7 to down 5. |
| Down 5 points is obviously not a good place to be, and the last poll to show Trump ahead in Florida came out in early July. But it’s one of many data points that underscore his relativestrength down there. | Down 5 points is obviously not a good place to be, and the last poll to show Trump ahead in Florida came out in early July. But it’s one of many data points that underscore his relativestrength down there. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.40pm BST | at 3.40pm BST |
| 3.11pm BST | 3.11pm BST |
| 15:11 | 15:11 |
| Which is more predictive of electoral success, crowd size or polling? A debate on the question broke out on Fox News. Dana Perino, one of George W Bush’s press secretaries, points out that in the very most recent presidential election, Republicans were saying the polls were wrong, but they weren’t. To say that her voice of reason falls on deaf ears fails to capture the mystification that crosses her face: | Which is more predictive of electoral success, crowd size or polling? A debate on the question broke out on Fox News. Dana Perino, one of George W Bush’s press secretaries, points out that in the very most recent presidential election, Republicans were saying the polls were wrong, but they weren’t. To say that her voice of reason falls on deaf ears fails to capture the mystification that crosses her face: |
| Shorter @DanaPerino: That's not how any of this works... (h/t @KatieSimmons_17) pic.twitter.com/si8gk6yjRi | Shorter @DanaPerino: That's not how any of this works... (h/t @KatieSimmons_17) pic.twitter.com/si8gk6yjRi |
| In 1984, the Mondale campaign talked up the shockingly large crowds he was drawing as proof the polls were wrong pic.twitter.com/aM6PVktoeD | In 1984, the Mondale campaign talked up the shockingly large crowds he was drawing as proof the polls were wrong pic.twitter.com/aM6PVktoeD |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.41pm BST | at 3.41pm BST |
| 2.09pm BST | 2.09pm BST |
| 14:09 | 14:09 |
| Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. | Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. |
| Donald Trump has announced on Twitter that he will soon be known as “MR. BREXIT!” It’s unclear what he means as he is not an EU member country. Here’s the tweet: | Donald Trump has announced on Twitter that he will soon be known as “MR. BREXIT!” It’s unclear what he means as he is not an EU member country. Here’s the tweet: |
| They will soon be calling me MR. BREXIT! | They will soon be calling me MR. BREXIT! |
| Trump may mean that, as the Brexit vote confounded late-stage polls seeming to show momentum in the direction of Remain, he will make fools of pollsters currently showing him losing by a lot everywhere. Which polls? You know the answer: all of them. (Seriously: all of them.) | Trump may mean that, as the Brexit vote confounded late-stage polls seeming to show momentum in the direction of Remain, he will make fools of pollsters currently showing him losing by a lot everywhere. Which polls? You know the answer: all of them. (Seriously: all of them.) |
| My god. This is the funniest video I've seen in a long time. pic.twitter.com/lcKskD8NKh | My god. This is the funniest video I've seen in a long time. pic.twitter.com/lcKskD8NKh |
| Explainer: Mr. Brexit was the endearingly oafish next-door neighbor in Mary Poppins, Trump's favorite movie. https://t.co/ErCCLU5hp4 | Explainer: Mr. Brexit was the endearingly oafish next-door neighbor in Mary Poppins, Trump's favorite movie. https://t.co/ErCCLU5hp4 |
| You misspelled Bullshit. And we've been calling you that for a while now. https://t.co/5G7eeE7Upa | You misspelled Bullshit. And we've been calling you that for a while now. https://t.co/5G7eeE7Upa |
| They will soon be calling me Dr. BREXIT. pic.twitter.com/R0FKk5flJQ | They will soon be calling me Dr. BREXIT. pic.twitter.com/R0FKk5flJQ |
| ‘Trump is a nut’ | ‘Trump is a nut’ |
| Classic @stuartpstevens on what Trump's hiring of Bannon means for Republicans (https://t.co/pW1BwXyHe9): pic.twitter.com/vyWaoW2kIi | Classic @stuartpstevens on what Trump's hiring of Bannon means for Republicans (https://t.co/pW1BwXyHe9): pic.twitter.com/vyWaoW2kIi |
| Hillary Clinton plans to meet today in New York with leading law enforcement officers from around the country, the Washington Post reports. | Hillary Clinton plans to meet today in New York with leading law enforcement officers from around the country, the Washington Post reports. |
| Thank you for reading and please join us in the comments. | Thank you for reading and please join us in the comments. |